How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

So local farmer going broke should actually be indeed happy, cause somebody in Africa is hungry and is in worse situation? Now that is optimistic attitude.

Well, of course not. We need to help destroy a neighboring state (whose combat effectiveness largely depends on the supply of volunteers from abroad) and worsen our situation by establishing common borders with the most aggressive state of our time, which has repeatedly stated its readiness to destroy Poland.

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Last time you projected that Ukraine will surely fall till December, at the start of the year at the most. Now you found yourself a reason for some Dolchstoss theory?

I must admit, I did not expect such a massive use of FPV drones (spare parts for manufacturing are supplied, among other things, through Poland). Today our front line is based on the massive use of these drones.

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

And not, not every protest was anti-Ukrainian, not even majority; but to know this, you would need entire picture of situation, not the one oligarchic media coctail serves you now. In Augustów for example protesters on one of largest meetings put UA banners on display,

Believe me, I and my friends don’t care at all whether the protesters in Poland are carrying Ukrainian or Russian flags. Just give us the opportunity to continue our fight. I must say that Turkey freely trades with Moscow, helps resell stolen Ukrainian grain, and supplies spare parts for Russian weapons. And yet, no one here even thinks of calling the Turks traitors, and all because the Turks never promised us full assistance in our war and never called us brothers.

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Artificial hysterias are not helpful in building solutions.

You say that as if Ukraine now has no problems with supplies, and everything that I described above is just little things that I came up with. Let me remind you that the Ukrainian army is critically dependent on the supply of volunteers. Starting from hemostatic tourniquets, radio stations and night vision devices, and ending with drones and cars.

[Harmon Rabb]

Impressive video.

[Fernando]

45 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Impressive video.

With soldiers deployed so bunched together, I'm not surprised that Russian infantry suffers such catastrophic casualties again and again.

[Kraft]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I have never fully subscribed to "LOLZ Russia" or "Russia Sux".  Nor does a steady stream of one-sided war porn change that.  As to the second point: a major personal gripe on this forum is "Monster Russia!."  Undersubscribing Russia is as big a sin as oversubscribing Russia.  We have posters who need to continually take the worst case for Ukraine, and best case for Russia at every instance.  This is not healthy or useful, and as harmful as the overtly "LOLZ Russia" narratives

Yes, those comments tend to come more from people not involved at all with the war who mostly base it on common stereotypes, while I feel most of the russia sucks crowd is following the war but for the most part just what ends up on twitter.

Quote

I gotta be honest, I am astounded on what is still holding Russia together.  As I said, I re-visited Oryx after a long absence and for tanks and AFVs, Russia has lost 3x what Ukraine had as their entire fleets at the beginning of the war.  We have continually seen signs of Russian strain: lower quality equipment showing up at the front, conscription of excess human capacity, mass migration out of Russia, buying ammo from NK (FFS).  However, one has to simply shake ones head at the level of Russian obstinance in all this.  I am not sure how they are holding their military together right now based on these losses.  Further, the shock of this war on Russia cannot be understated.  Does anyone think Putin planned for all this?  That Russian society was ready for this?  No western nation would be ready for something like this war, the shock would cripple us.  Imagine if Iraq in '03 had turned into something like this war; it would have broken the West.

I would argue current russian army in relation to ZSU is the best it has been since before the war. They have found strategies with which to overcome large defenses, poor troop quality and low morale. Those are btw higher than during the first year of the war, while those who volunteered to defend are now exhausted or dead and followed by people who are less eager.

Furthermore, the western supplies have essentially dried up - majority of what is being pledged now is 2 - 3 years away from being delivered - what had been pledged is being missed, like the million artillery shells - all the resources are currently commited and getting pushed back [although current mass charges arent sustainable for rus but rather an opportunistic reaction to the current state of the defense].

There is ofc the occasional T-54 meme driving around but the commanders know that they are good enough to successfully fullfill current russian strategy, and since having showed up a year or more ago, still not in large quantities but rather the odd tank here and there in a long list of T-72s and T-90s, I doubt it is an indicator of desperation and rather someones little side project restoring these lol. 

As for who breaks first, I hope the weak politicians who are bowing down to putins nuke extortions, because they still react like scared little deer whenever putin lets a supposed nuke drive around the block and get replaced with men who know how to deal with that obvious behavior.

This war can be won decidedly with putin backing himself into his little contained reich playing happy dictator in his golden palace, but instead they risk Nato troops ending up in situations like the picture I posted today.

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, that's one way to interpret it.  The other way is that we're documenting and discussing the things that will, almost certainly, lead to Russia's collapse so that when it does happen we don't have to be in the "wow, that was a total surprise!  Who saw that coming?".

For years before this war started I argued with people that Russia would get its arse handed to it if it attacked Ukraine.  At the time people said I was nuts.  I was right more than wrong, they were wrong more than they were right.  A big part of this discussion now is similar.  The evidence is there to support certain premises, and Russia collapsing is absolutely one of them.

The problem is timescale.  I have *NO* idea when Russia will collapse.  Could be 2 minutes from now, could be 2 decades.  But it will collapse.  It's been heading in that direction for some time before this war and, as I have argued repeatedly, it is one of the reasons for this war at this time.

It's kinda like talking to a scientist that says "the Sun will explode and with it all life on Earth will cease".  Someone then says "I see no evidence of that happening".  Just because it's billions of years away doesn't mean the scientist is wrong and the person arguing everything is fine is correct.  It all depends on perspective.

Steve

Of course and there are lines where putin will receive a bullet in the head by his own people but that line has been drawn up time and time again until everyone realized that it likely wont happen when all the people thinking it fell out of windows.

This has to be evaluated within the context, so far russia has surpassed any imaginable amount of absolutely pointless suffering, anyone a year ago seeing hundreds of wagner convicts die painful deaths asked why are they still signing up for this?

The question arises just the same now. I watched more than a hundred dead russians today, yet the question why they do it still has too many answers. russians were willing to spend more than an entire decade of afghanistan misery on a frontline city that in peacetime could be walked through in 2 hours and the reaction in russia is a few people on the street, singing, thinking woe is us.

Imagine this amount of death and destruction on the Nato side, without overwhelming US airpower winning the war before it started. Because the amount of graves the west is willing to dig is the literal worth of article 5. If we take ww1 as a guideline, we are still short a million dead russians, famine and a civil war before the time is up.

Edited March 1 by Kraft

[Kinophile]

I have questions.

[Kinophile]

10 minutes ago, Fernando said:

With soldiers deployed so bunched together, I'm not surprised that Russian infantry suffers such catastrophic casualties again and again.

No return fire, no movement, no vehicle support (drone took care of that, although the Bradley would have easily, also), no RPG fires, not even smoke (useless v Brad's, but still,  even just to encourage movement). No ATGM overwatch. No friendly drone to attack the Bradley. 

So just a bunch of guys to soak up Bradley rounds. 

Not exactly an "attack". 

Edited March 1 by Kinophile

[JonS]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

have never fully subscribed to "LOLZ Russia" or "Russia Sux".  Nor does a steady stream of one-sided war porn change that.  As to the second point: a major personal gripe on this forum is "Monster Russia!."  Undersubscribing Russia is as big a sin as oversubscribing Russia. 

See? You DO agree with Kofman

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Not exactly an "attack". 

This was a rotation. BTR has took one group and disembarked other to substitute them. Looks like they waited for orders what to do next except "wait and hold this area until we say what you will do next". And these guys waited Bradley 

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I would argue current russian army in relation to ZSU is the best it has been since before the war. They have found strategies with which to overcome large defenses, poor troop quality and low morale. Those are btw higher than during the first year of the war, while those who volunteered to defend are now exhausted or dead and followed by people who are less eager.

I am going to need to see a lot more than Adiivka to buy into this assessment.  The RA would have to actually translate tactical (very costly) success into something else.  Something we simply have not seen.  As to the condition of the Ukrainian defence forces...I mean what do we really know.  Challenges and suffering but you seem to portray an organization on the edge of collapse.

31 minutes ago, Kraft said:

As for who breaks first, I hope the weak politicians who are bowing down to putins nuke extortions, because they still react like scared little deer whenever putin lets a supposed nuke drive around the block and get replaced with men who know how to deal with that obvious behavior.

In a lot of ways I do feel sorry for Ukraine.  I really don't think you (they) fully understand what is going on here.  You are the proxy in a western proxy war - pure and simple.  Proxy war means we are only so invested and your pain and suffering carries only so much weight.  The West has become adept at ignoring pain and suffering.

No one is going to risk the larger game on Ukraine.  So no NATO formations, no deep strikes on Russia itself, and no, no-fly zones.  Unless we get pushed into by Russia, those options are off the table for the foreseeable future.  Better to hope for Russian collapse.

So here we are.  Ukraine is between the Devil and Deep Blue.  The West will cobble together support as best it can.  In reality money and data are the two most important resources and both are flowing.  The RA is no shape for major operational movements.  They will likely continue this "death by inches" to sap morale.  So Ukraine can wither change the game, shift narratives, which is what I suspect a lot of this deep action is all about.  Or give up...but that really is not an option either.

 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

ountry tours up and are trying to pull people in.  This is all part of that slow boil strategy the West appears to be pursuing.  We will put in staff and supports into HQ first.  Then some sort of in country support mission on the western border.

I can imagine foreign forces taking over "border security duties" wherever the current front line matches the pre-2022 (or pre-2014) borders - like transnistria, belarus, and from belarus down to kharkiv. Somewhat similar to what the UN has been doing somewhat successfully with various missions on the borders of Israel for many decades now. That would;

* free up a lot of ukrainian ground forces,

* restrict russian options for missile routes, and

* *really* secure those borders until or unless putin starts playing 'trip-wire chicken'.

Slow-boil could also see foreign forces take over theatre-level ground-based air-defence

Edited March 1 by JonS

[Kraft]

Data before january on positions is not accurate as tracking didnt start properly then.

Edited March 1 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, JonS said:

See? You DO agree with Kofman

I had a chance to hear him speak at the operational symposium and frankly I think we agree on more than we disagree to be honest.  Where we disagree is "why" things are occurring in this war, on the ground.  I think troop quality and C2 are factors but they are not what is driving the shifts we are seeing.  I think technology has conspired to shift warfare...again.  These changes are significant and need to be addressed by western forces or we face trouble ahead.

Kofman get caught up in his own contradictions: Ukraine must upscale and concentrate forces but cannot because of C2 culture.  Concentration of forces is extremely dangerous due to ISR and deep fires.  O.K. so which is it?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

 

Data before january on positions is not accurate as tracking didnt start properly then.

Oh that is interesting.  RU strikes on static positions are up, but vehicle strikes are still well out of balance.  That suggests that UA ISR is still superior.  Infantry is also interesting but is likely tied to increases in static position numbers.

My advice for the UA is to keep hitting the vehicles - it is a freakin long walk to Kyiv.

[Offshoot]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Tired of what is happening. "The country has changed, there has been [social] decay. People are confused, they have concrete sombreros [Russian slang - a closed, limited mind], everyone is waiting for something, everyone is like dogs. <...> I asked around a bit and it turned out, that no one wants it [in Russia]. All this is driving everyone crazy. No one wants to be part of this 'collider'. ****, it's not worth it. It's really not worth it."

 

This isn't the first mention I have see of war weariness in Russia, but I assume this guy moves in different circles to journalists ( https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/24/war-and-peace-russia-soldiers-ukraine )

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Well, of course not. We need to help destroy a neighboring state (whose combat effectiveness largely depends on the supply of volunteers from abroad) and worsen our situation by establishing common borders with the most aggressive state of our time, which has repeatedly stated its readiness to destroy Poland.

Ok, so we came from bros weeping about lost friendship to actively helping Russia. Now, that goes fast...remind me, what is mainstay of your SPG? And maybe tell you were entire production of Krab howitzers (circa 38 pieces) that was produced last year for our army somehow didn't make to their destined units? Who provided modified S-200 via Bulgaria that  likely are shooting muscovite aircrafts? There are wonders taking place across this border I assure you know very little about. If I would be AFU soldier, I would prefer as a Christmas present big fat modern gun rather than crying about some part for quadrocopter, but you are entitled to your own opinion naturally. Sorry, doesn't seem like Poland "ditched" Ukraine in any way so far:

https://www.wnp.pl/przemysl-obronny/polska-ma-ciekawa-bron-dla-ukrainy,801297.html

We have business problems that should be solved; what we are seeing now is part of negotiation process. That's all.

Btw., talking about volunteers...could you explain me in rational terms why every volunteers from here- be it Pole, Swede, English, Ukrainian from abroad or whoever- must pay a bribe to one of your border guards to actually bring something into UA? You even realise how widespread the practice is and how many people resigned from help cause of it? What is happening with those drones, starlinks and myriad other stuff that they are suddenly found on OLX? Why your journos- despite repeated and grounded reports send to independent media in UA- are so rarely interested in what is happening with this stuff afterwards and actual entire culture of corruption? Why, and I know what I mean, we see the same self-satisfied, fat Soviet faces on the border for the last two years sitting in their posts like bashas, despite numerous assurances that "something will change" from central gov?

Well, nothing changed; rockets are failing on their country, but hey, business as usual: "You bring humanitarian help my friend? No, we need to check a lot of procedures, unless you have some present for my wife [literal phrase]...to Donbas you say?To hell with them, 12 hours of waiting extra at the very least unless you change your mind..." This is not incidental but almost obligatory (depending whom you know), I personally know people who actually wait more on your side of the border than blocked by protesters on other- and this is exactly humanitarian help you mentioned.  Perhaps UkrainskaPravda should look into that, instead of spreading fakes about zilions of tonns of Russian grain that- suppesedly- out of a sudden landed in PL? If you don't believe me, I can provide you with several accounts of multi-national volunteers. And know several good, first-hand stories from those convoys, including one with former PM of your ally and main supplier, that don't put Ukrianian services in very good light at all.

Nope Zeleban...you are sabotaging yourself, at many levels. To be brutally honest, I am in more awe of courage of your soldiers, knowing how corrupted, oligarchic and still mirred in Soviet mentallity state structure they defend (and don't read me wrong, I don't mean your nation). There is no reason why farmer from here, or anywhere else from European Union, should be ruined on the altar of extra revenues for some grain oligarch. Zelensky himself mentioned that only 5% of UA grain goes through that border and your country actually increased its revenues totally...so are really things that bad? Or somebody in Kyiv simply miscalculated it is more profitable to earn some extra by dumping this grain into EU like crazy than keep hot romantic relations with Warsaw. I don't blame them frankly, Bankowa was always very pragmatic when comes to these issues. If they see a looser, they use him; it's part of Soviet diplomatic heritage from very old times that still exists, just as it exists in the military yourself wrote about. Yermak and entire collection of shaddy businessmen that sorrounds him is just example.

Btw. if you really want to search for scandals, I would turn more attention who actually grew fat and rich on various businesses that are run in your country during war, what percent of actual new revenues goes into your warchest, what is happening along entire length of these chains (including deep into EU or even in Africa) and what stays on someone's account during these transactions. Grain speculation including.

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

must admit, I did not expect such a massive use of FPV drones (spare parts for manufacturing are supplied, among other things, through Poland). Today our front line is based on the massive use of these drones.

You say that as if Ukraine now has no problems with supplies, and everything that I described above is just little things that I came up with. Let me remind you that the Ukrainian army is critically dependent on the supply of volunteers. Starting from hemostatic tourniquets, radio stations and night vision devices, and ending with drones and cars.

Well yes,you are right, but if indeed bringing parts for them is such a problem, why not pack them together already in EU, put into proper military/humanitarian cargos that go unobstructed, instead of civilan ones? Seems like logistical rather than political challange. For what I read among less-panicking sources, main problem caused by protesters is actually with cars for the army that are travelling on formally civilian carriages, that sometimes are indeed severly delayed. There were also instances where actual smaller military cargos were blocked (like famous boat for AFU), but rarely for longer than several hours. The problems with parts for copters is that once prostesters started to letting cargo with drone parts out, naturally every truck instantly started to carry them, regardless if it was fish, vegetables, cars, yogurths and such... I know a story about a driver with oranges who claimed he carried propulsion for drones size of a fist (couldn't show it, naturally, somewhere in the middle), and even had complete of barely faked documents. Therefore, valid military cargo.

Btw. the same surprise goes for European Union policies. Everybody in 2022 expected Ukraine will neeed these land borders as lifelines when Black Sea trade will be cut; that was original reason why any limits were lifted. But Ukraine managed pretty well, sea roads were unblocked and even prosper, and main things that travel through this border is cars, food stuff and myriad other civilian things that have little to do with war.

https://newsyou.info/en/2024/02/prodazhi-elitnix-avto-v-ukraїni-byut-rekordi

Rant about brothership and all is emotional in nature and have little to do with actual policies of both states; I could respond that brother does not wait to ruin the house he was welcomed in or at least display minimal ability for cooperation, but that is so banal I won't do that. Also remember farmers are just one social group, not representative for entire society.

 

And about tournikets not coming along: these guys saved thousands of your troops and they report continously from frontlines. So far stories of life-saving medical stuff being suppesdly blocked by farmers (on our side, not by corrpution on the other) seems to be incidental. If you have better, undispited sources that are not another PsyOps, please provide.

https://www.wmiedzyczasie.org/

Edited March 1 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Kraft said:

Stepove, russian infantry supported tank

Video 

 

[Kinophile]

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Of course and there are lines where putin will receive a bullet in the head by his own people but that line has been drawn up time and time again until everyone realized that it likely wont happen when all the people thinking it fell out of windows.

This has to be evaluated within the context, so far russia has surpassed any imaginable amount of absolutely pointless suffering, anyone a year ago seeing hundreds of wagner convicts die painful deaths asked why are they still signing up for this?

So what?  It simply means that the various lines people drew in their minds turned out to be wrong, not that there are no lines.  It also ignores the fact that many times in this war Russia had to do something dramatic to stop things from collapsing, including giving up a huge swath of territory they took.  Three times.

You grumble about people saying that a collapse is possible at any time in part because some people, like you, seem to think it won't ever happen.  Which is demonstrably wrong.  For this war as well as history in general.  Just because something is the way it is today doesn't mean it will be that way tomorrow.  This is the same fallacy that gets people to lose their life savings in the stock market that seems to "always go up".

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

The question arises just the same now. I watched more than a hundred dead russians today, yet the question why they do it still has too many answers. russians were willing to spend more than an entire decade of afghanistan misery on a frontline city that in peacetime could be walked through in 2 hours and the reaction in russia is a few people on the street, singing, thinking woe is us.

Imagine this amount of death and destruction on the Nato side, without overwhelming US airpower winning the war before it started. Because the amount of graves the west is willing to dig is the literal worth of article 5. If we take ww1 as a guideline, we are still short a million dead russians, famine and a civil war before the time is up.

So what?  It just means Russia hasn't yet hit its limitations hard enough to collapse, not that they are forever invincible just because they haven't yet been fully defeated.

Again, as I said in my last post, examining the elements of Russia's eventual collapse is productive and is helpful regardless of the lack of specificity for when the collapse will (and I am saying WILL in the strongest way possible) happen or when.  Looking at what's going on today and concluding that this is all a waste of time because Russia is invincible is not productive nor helpful.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Video 

 

This looks like dead dragged out of the nearby trenches and put on the road for collection, not killed in place.  Regardless, that's a full platoon dead.

Steve

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1763664031787663689?t=TFEq2KV0FyzFM6bFM_wGXw&s=19

950 km range on UKR sea drones. 

For context, the Black Sea is about 1100km wide. Odessa to Sebastapol is 290km.

Edited March 1 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

What interesting times are coming... Caution Germany became a locomotive of military aid, France, who wanted "to allow Putin to save his face" now allowed own SOF and other units to cross Ukrainian border. Interesting also that current commander of French Foreign Legion is ethnical Ukrainain (at least by surname) Cyrille Yushchenko.

 

[Holien]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Caution Germany became a locomotive of military aid, France, who wanted "to allow Putin to save his face" now allowed own SOF and other units to cross Ukrainian border

The Trump Effect?

Europe is upping its game...

Long may it last...

I truly hope Ukraine can hold on and the aid truly arrives in time.

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

What interesting times are coming... Caution Germany became a locomotive of military aid, France, who wanted "to allow Putin to save his face" now allowed own SOF and other units to cross Ukrainian border. Interesting also that current commander of French Foreign Legion is ethnical Ukrainain (at least by surname) Cyrille Yushchenko.

 

What!??  This is a real shocking development, in my mind.  What would french SOF do in UKR?  Training?  Doing operations could get a french soldier captured (worse than dead for Macron).  So I am guessing training?

35 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

100K per month?  So 3000 strikes per day at ~1/3 success rate is 1000 hits per day.  That's a lot!  But need several thousand drone operators I would think, which is probably easier to train than to train a full-on front line soldier.  Seems like really good news

 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Holien said:

The Trump Effect?

Europe is upping its game...

Long may it last...

I truly hope Ukraine can hold on and the aid truly arrives in time.

Maybe Macron was inspired by watching Ridley Scott's Napoleon?

But seriously, I really like this new Macron.

I have to once again agree with Estonia's beautiful Prime Minster.  Even if NATO does not put any troops on the ground, that does not mean we should tell the Russians that it cannot happen in the future.

 

Edited March 1 by Harmon Rabb

[chris talpas]

3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Impressive video.

Now imagine the Bradley able to view the drone footage in real time giving themselves real time BDA.  In this fully illuminated space, any EM signature downsides would be more than offset by the better situational awareness.  Suddenly vehicles get to see the map in overhead view with all the benefits that those weak willed among us who don’t play on ironman.