Butschi Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Think of going to a casino. You have to put in money to play and losing some doesn't mean you won't come out ahead in the end. However, as your money dwindles the chances of coming out ahead are reduced because that's just the way probability works. A casino isn't really such a good analogy. For once in a casino your goal is to maximise a single ressource by investing that ressource. Since we are talking about the RuAF, the goal is not to maximise the number of aircraft but to win the war. You also cannot invest aircraft to get more aircraft. In addition, Russia is not playing against the bank but against another player. If that other player loses money faster than Russia or has less of it to play with it is perfectly possible to win while losing money. 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: The more you rely upon something to achieve a goal, the less likely you will achieve that goal if you lack that something. This is irrefutable logic, so I have no idea why you're trying to debate it. I am not. I debate if this logic is applicable here. Russia does not rely on having aircraft in order to achieve their goal, i.e. win the war. Having aircraft does not win a war (well, that is not entirely true because they can be a deterrence). Expending aircraft wins a war if the exchange rate is favourable. As I said, I don't claim to know whether the exchange rate is favourable. Very simple example: Let's assume your opponent has only a limited number of fuel dumps and cannot continue to fight without fuel. You rely 100% on your air force to win. If you lose half your air force in order to destroy those fuel dumps you win the war, although you now have less aircraft. This is irrefutable logic, so I have no idea why you're trying to debate it. Sorry, couldn't resist. If the Russians now lose more aircraft but hit disproportionally more, or more important targets (-> favourable exchange rate), it brings them closer to winning the war. If they just lose more aircraft, sure, you are absolutely right, Ukraine gets closer to winning the war. Edited March 1 by Butschi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Looks like a negative turn for the proposed bi-partisan compromise to speed funding for Ukraine through the U.S. House: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) Alright, can someone explain what exactly David's "game" is? I already know why other members of Putin's cheerleader squad do what they do ( Ritter,Seagal,Tucker). I looked David up on Wikipedia and he seems like some tech entrepreneur. Interestingly enough in the past he has donated money to Mitt Romney's and Hillary Clinton's campaigns, not two names that I imagine are very popular in the Kremlin. Why is he so busy pushing the Russian propaganda right now? Is he just bored and enjoys being an edgy contrarian? Unlikely Is he making money from this? More likely but I do not want to accuse anyone without evidence, even this scumbag. and I apologize for making you look at his face again my friends. Edited March 1 by Harmon Rabb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said: Alright, can someone explain what exactly David's "game" is? I already know why other members of Putin's cheerleader squad do what they do ( Ritter,Seagal,Tucker). I looked David up on Wikipedia and he seems like some tech entrepreneur. Interestingly enough in the passed he has donated money to Mitt Romney's and Hillary Clinton's campaigns, not two names that I imagine are very popular in the Kremlin. Why is he so busy pushing the Russian propaganda right now? Is he just board and enjoys being an edgy contrarian? Unlikely Is he making money from this? More likely but I do not want to accuse anyone without evidence, even this scumbag. and I apologize for making you look at his face again my friends. David Sacks is a toxic gnome, a bad poker player, a hanger on to Elon Musk and a Peter Thiel intimate with whom at Stanford he wrote that rape was typically really just “belated regret”. He’s always run in their slipstream and acts as their errrand boy, cheerleader and fixer. These days, he’s most firmly tied to Musk who has numerous financial and legal entanglements that would be very much served with a Trump win in November. So, Sacks is doing his best to support Musk’s Trumpian line. That’s really all there is to it. Edited March 1 by billbindc 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sojourner Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said: even this scumbag He seems to have overlooked the fact that Russia also shipped vital weapons off to Ukraine and is in more far worse shape today than it was before the war in Ukraine. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannon Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 3 hours ago, panzermartin said: Could the sudden surge of Su 34s losses mean that a few F16s are already operating incognito with long range missiles. (Or Russians are more and more aggressive with the airforce and pushing forward less carefully). Wouldn’t the Russians know if there were F-16s in theater by their radar signature. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 4 hours ago, Fenris said: Clown show. That vehicle should NOT have overturned like that at that speed taking that broad of a turn. At least I don't think a NATO vehicle of similar specs would have flopped like that. Could have been something as simple as poor tire pressure. Let's see what Trent has to say about it Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Am thinking it clipped the curb. Too bad it didn't spontaneously combust. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 32 minutes ago, Bannon said: Wouldn’t the Russians know if there were F-16s in theater by their radar signature. Yes, but if they admitted there were F-16s then it would complicate the story that friendly air defenses are shooting down their planes. It gets worse from there because it proves that Western air power can wipe the skies clear of Russians in very little time with very little resources. That's not a story any Russian or Russian fanbois wants to admit. So if this is F-16s at work they will want to keep it quiet until Ukraine makes it impossible to deny. Now, the question is if Ukraine is using F-16s already. It is entirely possible. Their OPSEC is generally very good and this wouldn't be the first time they fielded a major weapon sooner than expected and kept it quiet for a while. The best example I can think of is the suspected Excalibur strike on the Russian HQ in 2022 near Izyum. Storm Shadows were first known to be in theater when Crimea started burning. We still don't know if Hrims-2 was used for the strike in Crimea. The truck bomb on the Kerch Bridge was also not admitted to for quite a while. The list goes on. If Ukraine isn't using F-16s yet, then they have figured out some recipe with existing ingredients that is producing unexpected results. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 3 hours ago, Butschi said: I am not. I debate if this logic is applicable here. Russia does not rely on having aircraft in order to achieve their goal, i.e. win the war. Having aircraft does not win a war (well, that is not entirely true because they can be a deterrence). Expending aircraft wins a war if the exchange rate is favourable. As I said, I don't claim to know whether the exchange rate is favourable. No. You seem to be forgetting that the entire point about the aircraft losses being so important NOW is they have been increasingly relying upon them to take ground from Ukraine. Avdiivka would likely still be in Ukraine's hands right now if it wasn't for the bombs. The small bridgehead at Oleshky seems to have been obligated to withdraw because of glide bombs. So I will state this again as clearly as I can. Russia seems to have found that the only (or at least best) way to advance is to use aircraft to deliver glide bombs. Ukraine is now shooting down those planes at a rate that Russia can not possibly replace. Logically if Ukraine keeps shooting down planes at this rate Russia will have fewer to affect movement on the ground. Ergo, Russia's options for success are under pressure now and could tip in the direction of losing this newish found ability to dislodge stubborn Ukrainian defenders. And if that happens it could affect how the rest of the war goes. It really is that simple. Simple enough that I don't want to argue the point any more as it's not refutable. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Per the David Sacks conversation, I thought I should probably explain my poker jibe: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Let's see what Trent has to say about it Please god no. That's a twitter account that's far past its smell date. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 The BSF really has failed in its primary mission - war time domination of the Black Sea. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/29/7444412/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/29/7444429/ Ukrainian journalists conducted an investigation on the border between Poland and Belarus and found that Poland is increasing trade with Belarus (and therefore with Russia). While the border with Ukraine plans to completely close 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Quote https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-29-2024 Ukrainian officials are reportedly concerned about the possibility of significant Russian territorial gains in Summer 2024 in the event of continued delays in Western security assistance. Russian President Vladimir Putin used his February 29 address to the Federal Assembly to attempt to convince the Russian public that his next term as president will be defined by Russian military success in Ukraine but not at the expense of stagnating or decreased social and economic welfare. Putin used tired rhetoric about negotiations and nuclear saber rattling during his Federal Assembly speech, likely to seize on Western attention to the speech to promote ongoing Kremlin information operations. Putin emphasized the Kremlin’s domestic focus on 2024 as the “Year of the Family” to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis during his Federal Assembly address. Putin did not respond to the February 28 request from the Congress of Deputies from pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria, but this lack of response still affords the Kremlin several possible courses of action (COA) at a later time. Ukrainian forces downed three more Su-34 fighter aircraft in eastern Ukraine on February 28 and 29. The Kremlin continues to assert its self-arrogated right to enforce Russian federal law on citizens of NATO member and former Soviet states over actions taken within the territory of their own countries. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a threat to Armenian security as Russian officials refused to acknowledge Armenia’s reduced participation in the CSTO. The Kremlin has reportedly established high-level positions in all federal bodies to promote patriotism and history within each body, likely aimed at strengthening informational and ideological control over federal employees. Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the frontline on February 29. Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec Head Sergei Chemezov stated on February 29 that Rostec plans to produce A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on an unspecified schedule because Russian forces require more A-50 aircraft. Occupation officials continue to support Kremlin efforts to gain further control over religious groups in occupied Ukraine. ISW bullet points for Feb 29 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 5 hours ago, Bannon said: Wouldn’t the Russians know if there were F-16s in theater by their radar signature. Yes but in this case, maybe we (the public) will learn about it later. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 (edited) 1 hour ago, Zeleban said: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/29/7444412/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/29/7444429/ Ukrainian journalists conducted an investigation on the border between Poland and Belarus and found that Poland is increasing trade with Belarus (and therefore with Russia). While the border with Ukraine plans to completely close That's a wee bit misleading. Quote The volume of Poland's imports from Russia and Belarus is significantly lower than its imports from Ukraine. Last year, Ukraine sold US$1.3 billion worth of agricultural products to Poland, while Russia and Belarus sold US$117 million and US$55 million, respectively," [...] Poland will "thoroughly" analyse the aftermath of Latvia's decision to ban imports of Russian food products and does not rule out that it will take appropriate steps. Imports from Belarus and Russia are tiny, and limited to non-sanctioned food stuffs. And there might be a ban on that as well if they follow Latvia's footsteps. Edited March 1 by Carolus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 @Haiduk @Grigbet al 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 I guess there is such a thing as airborne meat waves. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 26 minutes ago, Kinophile said: I guess there is such a thing as airborne meat waves. Maybe. I guess it depends upon what kind of results their usage can achieve per the number of losses. And maybe Russia thinks it's better to use them now before they become less useful (maybe) after the F-16s arrive. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 23 minutes ago, Kinophile said: I guess there is such a thing as airborne meat waves. So, after 2 years the Russians finally found a way to make good use of their airforce. The good thing for them is that the stock of old FABs from the cold war is practically unlimited. (I'm not sure about the gliding kits though) I would even use strategic bombers from high altitude to release salvo of guided FABs, each designated a different target. I remember zaluzhny saying that they are at a moment where only a technological leap over the enemy would allow them to break enemy lines. Russians have found their wunderwaffe, mass use of glided bombs. For UKR that weapon could be a competitive airforce. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evilcommie Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, panzermartin said: So, after 2 years the Russians finally found a way to make good use of their airforce. The good thing for them is that the stock of old FABs from the cold war is practically unlimited. (I'm not sure about the gliding kits though) I would even use strategic bombers from high altitude to release salvo of guided FABs, each designated a different target. I remember zaluzhny saying that they are at a moment where only a technological leap over the enemy would allow them to break enemy lines. Russians have found their wunderwaffe, mass use of glided bombs. For UKR that weapon could be a competitive airforce. I don't think the f-16 will make that much of a difference. In fact, I think less than other wunderwaffe's as RU does have pretty robust air denial against aircraft targets. The wunderwaffe's Ukraine have had so far include drones, Javalin, NLAWs, HIMARS,ACTAMS, Patriot, Storm Shadow Leopard 2 , M1 Tanks... sure they did make a impact to Russian operations when they were first introduced, but I really suspect they are running out without replacement. Once the kill ratio's between UKR and Ru draw closer... I suspect something will collapse and the parties will come to the negation table. As much as we people laugh at Russian Arm's production, its probably in a better shape than the what the EU can do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 9 minutes ago, evilcommie said: I don't think the f-16 will make that much of a difference. In fact, I think less than other wunderwaffe's as RU does have pretty robust air denial against aircraft targets. You are right and there is plenty of evidence of this on the Internet. For example But seriously, we have repeatedly witnessed the weakness of Russian air defense systems at key points, such as the Air Defense Headquarters in Crimea and the naval base in Sevastopol. Now imagine how difficult it will be for the Russians to block many kilometers of the front from F-16 attacks 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 My former classmate shared his photos, it turns out he serves as a crew member of the Marder infantry fighting vehicle and is undergoing training in Germany 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 5 minutes ago, evilcommie said: As much as we people laugh at Russian Arm's production, its probably in a better shape than the what the EU can do. Absolutely. It's now a country geared for war like Nazi Germany in the beginning of WW2. Plus they have huge stockpiles of weapons. We'll probably catch up later, when things get more serious... The continuous comedian approach on the russian army and state, didn't help the overall effort I think. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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