How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Sojourner]

As long as they don't paint red stars on the F-16s they ought to be safe from Russian AD.

[Kinophile]

29 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

As long as they don't paint red stars on the F-16s they ought to be safe from Russian AD.

Lol

[Kinophile]

57 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

This is the best article on the A-50 situation I saw (it was written after the mid-January downing of one) - https://breakingdefense.com/2024/01/after-historic-shoot-down-why-russia-will-struggle-to-replace-its-a-50-aewc-plane/

According to it, the loss of the specialist personnel could be as significant as the loss of the plane.

Yep, but Cooper etc made similar notes. Large specialist crews, and hard to replace because the equipment is not easy, apparently. 

I wonder if GUR is scouting out the training facilities. Wait till the next class graduate and drone bomb the graduation ceremony. Start all over again from scratch. 

 

[Kinophile]

Friday's Su34 of choice confirmed. 

 

[chrisl]

11 hours ago, Kinophile said:

A50 strike video with eng translate/

Looks like it fired off all its flares, 1, maybe 2 missiles were deceived but the rest of the salvo kept going.

 

Did they leave the radar on while the missiles were incoming?

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, IMHO said:

1. You're a kinda week or two late with the news.
2. It was A-50 and Il-22. Seems like A-50 didn't make it and Il-22 was able to survive.

A-50 and IL-22 were hit in a previous incident.

 

Yesterday, only A-50 was hit:

Yesterday, there was confusion over the number of planes and helicopters hit because initial yesterday's videos showed two separate fires and one witness claimed that one fire was caused by a helicopter.

Separately, some UKR channels claimed that IL-22 was also downed but later these claims disappeared (probably confused it with previous incident). Nobody else claimed IL-22 or anything else was hit. 

There is a small probability that the second fire was from another plane. But it is small.

6 hours ago, IMHO said:

You sure you can a be a reliable and referencable source if you missed these basic things?

Ae you sure you are capable of judging other's work if you missed these basic things? 

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 @Grigb is one of the best contributors to this thread. Just sayin'.

****

VERIFICATION REQUEST. Is it true Russia only has one more A50 AWACS?  Or is this yet another Sushko disinfo special?

 

RU Nats says there are 6 remaining, however it appears they are referring to the total number. According to UKR Mashovets' UKR colleague:

Quote

These aircraft have been produced since 1985, but as of today there is no production in Russia. There are 9 such aircraft in the Russian Aerospace Forces, but 1 of them is undergoing endless modernization, 2 require repair, 1 was damaged by an Bumblebee attack drone in Belarus, and on January 14 1 of them went into an eternal dive – was shot down.

In truth, only 4 A-50 aircraft were completely operational before February 23, 2023...were

The average cost of one such aircraft is $400 million, but given their scarcity and difficulties of manufacture, it is significantly more, and if I say you should double it, I am unlikely to be inaccurate.

 

[Grigb]

Looks like last night RU Nat got message from friendly comrades to be quiet.  So far nothing to add to what I already wrote except umors that RU command is leaning toward UKR SF raid.

Edited February 24 by Grigb

[Kinophile]

 

[Tux]

33 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Looks like last night RU Nat got message from friendly comrades to be quiet.  So far nothing to add to what I already wrote except umors that RU command is leaning toward UKR SF raid.

Not surprising. There are just so many things that seem wrong with the FF theory:  

1. The A-50, of all types, would be in constant contact with air defence units;
2. An A-50 does not resemble a drone or missile;
3. The A-50 was manoeuvring and releasing countermeasures when the ‘SAM’ in that video was launched - surely any SAM crew in the area would therefore be aware that the AWACS was being targeted and hold their damned fire?
4. As far as I’m aware Russian SAMs do not have an IR seeker head, so the flares and a missile apparently striking one do not make sense;

and there are more…

 

[Kraft]

5 hours ago, IMHO said:

Seems like you are prone to making swift and uneducated judgements. The tag says "There's no place to cowards in this world" and the poor guy is in Russian Army uniform yet in Ukrainian warming coverall. If it's not a total set up. If it's authentic it's Wagner hanging his own, they did have brutal rules. So just open Google translate before meting out justice.

The picture originates from a video filmed by a Ukrainian recon team entering a russian position around Avdiivka.

5 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Anon posting on 4chan.

Of course its a serb

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

FWIW, Tom Cooper is saying S-200

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-23-february-2024-evening?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

@Grigb? 

S-200 comes from UKR media and some local UKR sources. It cannot be reliably verified but personally, judging by the way it is presented I believe it is planted by UKR intelligence. Also even modified S-200 is still big old missile that RU AD should be able to counter. RU AD is bad (cannot counter StromShadow) but should not be that bad.  

[Grigb]

51 minutes ago, Tux said:

Not surprising. There are just so many things that seem wrong with the FF theory:  

1. The A-50, of all types, would be in constant contact with air defence units;
2. An A-50 does not resemble a drone or missile;
3. The A-50 was manoeuvring and releasing countermeasures when the ‘SAM’ in that video was launched - surely any SAM crew in the area would therefore be aware that the AWACS was being targeted and hold their damned fire?
4. As far as I’m aware Russian SAMs do not have an IR seeker head, so the flares and a missile apparently striking one do not make sense;

and there are more…

 

I completely agree. But we have following video:

  

8 hours ago, Kraft said:

New video, looks like this was local AA

 

This is undoubtedly a Russian military facility. And someone is launching a missile not far away from the camera (to the hilarious surprise of the man behind camera). The only option I can think of is that UKR SF have adamantium balls and launched missiles from very close to a Russian military facility.

If the facility is RU AD-based, that explains why RU is so fond of blaming AD again; only higher-ups would know the truth. The vast majority of RU officers would simply know that missiles were fired from the direction of the RU AD base, indicating that these MF made a mistake again.

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

I completely agree. But we have following video:

  

This is undoubtedly a Russian military facility. And someone is launching a missile not far away from the camera (to the hilarious surprise of the man behind camera). The only option I can think of is that UKR SF have adamantium balls and launched missiles from very close to a Russian military facility.

If the facility is RU AD-based, that explains why RU is so fond of blaming AD again; only higher-ups would know the truth. The vast majority of RU officers would simply know that missiles were fired from the direction of the RU AD base, indicating that these MF made a mistake again.

The flares have been used for some time before that launch,  and the launch is from the other side of the aircraft line of flight to the video that shows the hit. 

So in one video we have A-50 moving right to left, and an explosion behind the aircraft where presumably an IR seeker hit a flare. Then the plane explodes.

In the other video from the Russian base we have the A-50 moving left to right (on approach to land at the base), and after a fair bit of flaring, a SAM launch which appears to be about the right timing to be the missile that hit the A-50

Possible scenario: UKR SF got to a few miles from the base where they could hit the A-50 coming to land. Man portable IR seeking SAM launched (e.g. Starstreak) but hits flare. Base air defence launches and hits A-50. Either they were trying to intercept the UKR missile, confused about the situation  (fog of war) or just panic. A-50 trying to avoid IR missile behind is hit by radar guided missile from the front. 

EDIT: Not starstreak - I don't think that is IR guided from what I've read. 

Edited February 24 by TheVulture

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Possible scenario: UKR SF got to a few miles from the base where they could hit the A-50 coming to land. Man portable IR seeking SAM launched (e.g. Starstreak) but hits flare. Base air defence launches and hits A-50. Either they were trying to intercept the UKR missile, confused about the situation  (fog of war) or just panic. A-50 trying to avoid IR missile behind is hit by radar guided missile from the front. 

That's possible - there was rumor that RU AD shot at the same time at something different. 

Edited February 24 by Grigb

[Grigb]

8 hours ago, IMHO said:

Seems like you are prone to making swift and uneducated judgements. The tag says "There's no place to cowards in this world" and the poor guy is in Russian Army uniform yet in Ukrainian warming coverall. If it's not a total set up. If it's authentic it's Wagner hanging his own, they did have brutal rules. So just open Google translate before meting out justice.

Oh, FFS...

First,

Mobiks use whatever they can find. Cold is a cold. While I am not knowledgeable enough about this matter for UKR units I am confident that UKR soldiers rarely do the same. Supply is better, RU clothing is often inferior and dangerous (flammable), but most importantly You will attract dangerous attention from your own boys.

In RU army enemy clothing does not attract anybody's attention. In the beginning supply was awful and many RU units literally got everything they could from captured UKR supply depots. Now supply is somewhat better, but RU clothing is inferior, dangerous and looks bad. Even RU generals prefer to weas UKR western style uniform

Infamous general Lapin (sitting)

So, while we can't tell for certain who it was, the chances of it being RU are substantially higher than those of the UKR (If it's authentic).

Wagnerites [real ones] don't exist for about half the year. However, even they did not do so in public, which was harmful for Prig's Myth. More significantly, everyone knew someone foolish who had simply vanished into thin air, so they didn't need that kind of public reminder.

Second,

it is somewhat strange. It is unofficial punishment (and waste). To do that local commander must take the initiative and responsibility which is frowned upon in RU army. It is more preferable to call in men from special units who deal with it via torture and intimidation. Why execute someone who can still walk and take part in count formations, and meat assaults? You put him in an earth pit or lock him in a basement and leave him there for a week. After a week you ask him if here is motivated enough to become loyal soldier of the motherland. If not, you beat him and leave him for another week.

Here is pit from Chechen war

And here is Basement

These punishments are simple, can be organized anywhere, can be used to detain but also to torture. And you can always claim that you are doing nothing, just detaining the victim. And if the story gets big you blame local soldiers for incompetence. 

Why do it that way? BTW, older generations despise that since Soviet propaganda frequently reminded Soviet citizens that only Fascists would do so, displaying German executions from WWII. If it's authentic it was done by somebody brutal and who did not want higher ups to be involved.

I thought about it and the answer is most likely it was done by RU PMCs Veterans or similar. Murz quote

Quote

A rabble consisting of former prisoners [zeks], drug addicts and looters, are hiding behind the backs of the mobilized of our regiment, [they were] “carrying assault operations” without being present locally. After we capture the combat fortier, they come, shot a video report, take weapons, armor plates from the dead, everything valuable, both from the soldiers of Russian Army and from the enemies, and return into the “grey zone", leaving us on the line of contact.

The Veterans are carrying out looting, drinking, and narcotics operations. They do not want higher-level or special unit to become involved (typically special units include Military Police) since these basterds will undoubtedly want their cut. So, how do you quickly and brutally punish noncooperative mobik if you are a group of zeks? Phot is the answer.

Edited February 24 by Grigb

[Carolus]

Okay, I fully admit this is completely conspiracy theory level territory but..

Wasn't there an incident between the Russian airforce and NATO planes over the Black Sea recently?

What if - and no, I don't belive thst myself, but I want to mention it for the pure fun - what if this was a British or American message to tell Russia "Our stealth planes are actually stealth planes, Vladimir. Now please call your dogs back a bit."

Sniping a Russian AWACS to emphasize the message. Leaving everyone in the public wondering if it was Ukraine or FF incident. The perfect crime.

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Friday's Su34 of choice confirmed. 

This is a video of A-50 burning. At least UKR General Staff confirmed A-50 only for yesterday. There was just information about Su-34 has disappeared from radars over Henichesk district of Kherson oblast, when it launched two Kh-59 on Kropyvnytskyi city.   

[Haiduk]

39 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Even RU generals prefer to weas UKR western style uniform

I read Multicam is officially allowed in Russian army as an option (but not as a statutory uniform), which serviceman can buy for own money. So, some people of spetsnaz, different volunteer units, PMCs, who can buy this camo, use it

Edited February 24 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

The video of UKR kamikadze drone takes off to hit Novolipetskiy metallurgical plant

One more video of the strike on the plant

 

SBU and GUR made a statement this was their combined operation. As result was took out freezing equipment and coke battery.

Novolipetsk metallurgical plant is a main manufacturer of armored steel for Russian army. This strike will make problems in technology cycle for at least a month. The owner of the plany is Vladimir Lisin, Russian oligarch, close person to Putin.  

[panzermartin]

So Russians keep losing precious hardware like they don't care. Do they realize this is not WW2 where T 34s and Il-2 get out of the factory straight to the Frontline in a fews weeks. 

Where do you think the loss of the A50 will hurt the most operationally the RU? Coordinance of gliding bombings, missile /drone warfare , situational awareness in ground? Time for unmanned air balloon radars. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Okay, I fully admit this is completely conspiracy theory level territory but..

Wasn't there an incident between the Russian airforce and NATO planes over the Black Sea recently?

What if - and no, I don't belive thst myself, but I want to mention it for the pure fun - what if this was a British or American message to tell Russia "Our stealth planes are actually stealth planes, Vladimir. Now please call your dogs back a bit."

Sniping a Russian AWACS to emphasize the message. Leaving everyone in the public wondering if it was Ukraine or FF incident. The perfect crime.

Means, motive, opportunity, risk.  Means, yes but stealth does not mean invisible so risk there.  Motive, may be a good way to send a message but Russia would need to know a western power did it or the message to “back off” is lost.  Opportunity, possibly.

Risk…madness.  We are talking about direct western military action against Russia.  That is an act of war.  The US or UK would need to be ready to get caught and essentially give Russia and their allies permission to escalate. I mean what would we do if Russians actually killed an AWAC trying to send us a message?  Given the risks, the demonstration itself is not worth it.  Sure we bag an A-50 but Putin get his dream scenario for convincing his own people that this whole thing is an existential war for Russia against western powers.  He can take this to China and Iran as a blank check and this whole thing becomes World Proxy War One.

Cool Tom Clancy novel plot line but entirely fictional.

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

This is undoubtedly a Russian military facility. And someone is launching a missile not far away from the camera (to the hilarious surprise of the man behind camera). The only option I can think of is that UKR SF have adamantium balls and launched missiles from very close to a Russian military facility.

Today's post of Kostiantyn Mashovets and some opinions in comments (some simplified by me) - he also hints this can be S-200. Mashovets is retired AD officer and practices on S-200 in early years of own military studying. 

As a variant. 5V28 missile - far limit of engagement zone for loitering AWACS plane is 255 km. Upgraded variant - 5V28M - all 300 km. And there is a strory among AD servicemen that on maneuvers this missile flew away on 340-350 km [like in similar way Russian Tu-154 was accidentally shot down by UKR S-200 in times of Kuchma much further of declared engagement zone - my comment]. Yes this old-school system, bulky, but according on number of features it still unique system. And AWACS planes are its "firm", highly specialized targets. Despite S-200 has semi-active homing, it can homes in passive mode, but the target have to be very bright source of radio-emmiting, and AWACS radar for S-200 seeker is a like firework. 

There was information S-200 misisles were recieved from Poland or Bulgaria. Also some of our missiles can be repaired. In Ukriane S-200 system was decomessioned long time ago and all launnchers were scrapped. But since S-200 was upgraded as erzats-ballistic missiles and some of them were used in this role I can assume we have some mobile launcher for them, not a stationery like in Soviet Union. And I think, we could upgrade some equipmemt in this missile. Some people in comments under post of Mashovets pointed out in USSR S-200 could by deployed on railway carts. One problem with S-200 is its toxic liquid fuel, demanding special chargng procedures, so even mobile launcher is not simply drove here - shot - ran away.

 

On background of video with Russian S-400 launches here is my version:

1. Two UKR S-200 launched in A-50

2. Operators in the plane see imcoming missiles and in desperation launched all what they can do - chaffs, flares, turned on EW equipment and gives targeting to incoming missiiles for S-400 to shot them down. PS. Flight time for S-200 is about 2 minutes.

3. S-400 crews launches missile(s) on incoming S-200 and:

a) they failed to intercept them - one missile is distracted by EW equipment of A-50 (but on video it looks like a flare repelled the missile), The second hit the plane

b) missile, launched at approaching S-200 mistakingly has locked on A-50. BOOM.

c) S-400 intercepted one missile (visible as if a flare did it), but the second S-200 hit A-50    

 

Edited February 24 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Today's post of Kostiantyn Mashovets and some opinions in comments (some simplified by me) - he also hints this can be S-200. Mashovets is retired AD officer and practices on S-200 in early years of own military studying. 

As a variant. 5V28 missile - far limit of engagement zone for loitering AWACS plane is 255 km. Upgraded variant - 5V28M - all 300 km. And there is a strory among AD servicemen that on maneuvers this missile flew away on 340-350 km [like in similar way Russian Tu-154 was accidentally shot down by UKR S-200 in times of Kuchma much further of declared engagement zone - my comment]. Yes this old-school system, bulky, but according on number of features it still unique system. And AWACS planes are its "firm", highly specialized targets. Despite S-200 has semi-active homing, it can homes in passive mode, but the target have to be very bright source of radio-emmiting, and AWACS radar for S-200 seeker is a like firework. 

There was information S-200 misisles were recieved from Poland or Bulgaria. Also some of our missiles can be repaired. In Ukriane S-200 system was decomessioned long time ago and all launnchers were scrapped. But since S-200 was upgraded as erzats-ballistic missiles and some of them were used in this role I can assume we have some mobile launcher for them, not a stationery like in Soviet Union. And I think, we could upgrade some equipmemt in this missile. Some people in comments under post of Mashovets pointed out in USSR S-200 could by deployed on railway carts. One problem with S-200 is its toxic liquid fuel, demanding special chargng procedures, so even mobile launcher is not simply drove here - shot - ran away.

 

On background of video with Russian S-400 launches here is my version:

1. Two UKR S-200 launched in A-50

2. Operators in the plane see imcoming missiles and in desperation launched all what they can do - chaffs, flares, turned on EW equipment and gives targeting to incoming missiiles for S-400 to shot them down. PS. Flight time for S-200 is about 2 minutes.

3. S-400 crews launches missile(s) on incoming S-200 and:

a) they failed to intercept them - one missile is distracted by EW equipment of A-50 (but on video it looks like a flare repelled the missile), The second hit the plane

b) missile, launched at approaching S-200 mistakingly has locked on A-50. BOOM.

c) S-400 intercepted one missile (visible as if a flare did it), but the second S-200 hit A-50    

 

That is plausible as an explanation.  Or perhaps a combination of a SOF MANPAD action with an S-200 salvo.  Regardless it has to be driving the Russians crazy and has reinforced air denial within Russia itself.  The ground war may have devolved into a grinding stalemate but Ukraine has definitely upped its strategic strike game.  They need to move on from demonstrations though and onto campaigning to impact Russian options spaces.

[Haiduk]

Again one UKR soldier of 8th mountain assault battalion of 10th mountain assault brigade against 10 orcs. 

Russian comamnder advices to the squad that one of them to throw in UKR soldier, sitting in the drain a grenade with tear gas (that he calls in radio chat "Cheryomukha" - "bird charry" - known name for series of different tear gases) and the second to shoot him from other side of the drain. But UKR soldier keeps Russians with a fire and Russian commander starts to moke up over own personnel "You have to throw him with grenades! Then you can hide in this positions and a "bird" (drone) can't reach you. You have 10!  Can you at last to finish with a one, who keeps your all! Outflank him!  

But Russians likely see the drone and don't risk to attack decisevely. In last moment Mavic dropped the grenade and teared off one Russian. One more body nearby has seen. Also during the skirmish one Russian soldier was hit with a rifle fire. 

 

Edited February 24 by Haiduk