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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Translating dolboyebism is a complex task. You need to include several steps

First, Dolboyebism - the suffix "-ism" suggests that this is a word denoting things related to another word, in this context it would probably mean "something that a dolbayeb would do" (a hypothesis confirmed by meaningful conclusion of step 2).

Second, "dolbayeb" is a compound word, where two parts may be distinguished: "do lba" (to the head) and "yeb". Given that we are dealing with a swear word, it may be safely assumed that "yeb" pertains to  "yebat", to have sex (rude).

Thus we arrive at "dolbayeb" - man, with whose head someone had sex (presumably damaging it in the process) - and "dolbayebism" - "a thing so stupid, that it could be done by a man, with whose head someone had sex, damaging it in the process".

On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and  the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism".

 

But F#ck is so over used in the English language, to the point it loses nuance.  Goat Rodeo?  Dumpster Fire?  

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Ahh but cluster**** is great because it encompasses both the end state situation (what a cluster****), the behaviour/decisions that led to it (it was a Cluster**** of an operation), and the primary person causing it (he was a complete cluster****). Cluster****ery is also a fun albeit lesser used version. 

There's also the nice addition that it's a variation on an original military word (cluster mine) so it's particularly appropriate to military situations and personnel. 

Finally, for me personally the word cluster is something I associate with chickens (clustering together) so another nice tie in with stupid, herding behavior that leaves everyone vulnerable to disaster. 

Edited by Kinophile
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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin.html

Finally NYt runs something counter to the current narrative. 

Quote

No matter what, Ukraine will go its own way. For Mr. Putin, more concerned by Ukraine than any other country that arose from the wreckage of the Soviet Union, that alone is tantamount to defeat

 

Edited by Kinophile
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Recently, I noticed that my UKR listening skills have improved noticeably. With the aid of translators and some effort, I can watch and translate UKR videos. So, let check the following interview with UKR AFV expert (former AFU tank officer)

 

Quote

How did western tanks show themselves in the war in Ukraine?

Challenger 2

  • Challenger 2 used in Airborne-Assault Brigade.
  • There is 1 company in the Brigade
  • Tank is akin to very powerfull sniper rifle
  • Very powerfull protection
  • Crews training is very good
  • Crews are delighted
  • Crews who previously trained on T-80b say Challenger 2 way better - more powerful rounds, accuracy, reliability of equipment, engine
  • Cannot say whether antitank rounds are as powerful as UKR media claimed because as they do not have as many fields with size of 4 km [to chekc it in battle] and because as soon as a RU formation realizes that Airborne-Assault Brigade present they avoid engagements [with Challengers]
  • Disadvantage: too few of them
  • Weight 60 ton is not a big issue - they do not have many places (where fighting is) where bridges need to be specifically build or reinforced to use 60 ton

Leopard 1

  • Old tank. Old technology and a weak engine.
  • There are several issues that arise as a result of the lengthy retirement (shortest 15 years, longest 30 years). There is an issue with steel fatigue. Several characteristics have been lost. Electronic problems [limited utility].
  • All of the above need great effort to utilize Leopard 1 without resulting in major losses.
  • However, the L7 gun is good, and current 105mm ammunition is superior to typical Soviet and Russian 125mm ammo.
  • He saw photos of Svinets 1/2, but none had been found inside the captured tanks.
  • Not all RU tanks accept Svinets. Not every Russian tanker is familiar with Svinets.
  • They will most likely receive Kontakt-1 (After Leopard 2A4)

Leopard 2А4

  • They were concerned that the protection of 2A4 was inadequate [compared to modern UKR tanks]. They were wrong.
  • Protection is good. NERA isn't worse than Kontakt 1 or 5.
  • They did upgraded Leopard 2A4's protection with Kontakt 1.

Leopard 2A4 ERA upgrade

  • Claims decision to install ERA had been discussed and agreed upon with tank designers.
  • Portions of Leo 2A4 [November 2023] are significantly improved with ERA.
  • The back of the turret, which is not covered by the ERA, will be secured with nets (against drones).
  • Discusses the fact that ERA cannot be used to cover all surfaces owing to armor thickness requirements. Some surfaces may be protected by boxes with tankers stuff. However, discussions with the tank manufacturer are necessary, which can take time.
  • As a consequence of UKR requirements, there may be a new modification of Leopard.

Possible future upgrades

  • Individual EW is a must.
  • Communication and command/control systems.
  • Upgrades are beneficial, but the primary focus should be on crew and unit training up to battalions and brigades' headquarters.
  • Comments that while international partners are aware of changing war requirements, it takes 6-8-10 years for the next generation of tanks to appear. So, they do learn from UKR and their own mistakes, but the results will take time to appear.

Leopard 2A6

  • Upgraded version of 2A4 and 2A5. Better commander control owing to the upgraded Commander Panoramic sight, which has its own thermal imager. It allows commanders to better survey the battlefield and find targets faster than gunner.
  • Improved protection. Reuleaux or beak [turret armor kits] offer significantly higher protection. They've seen several vids of the 2A6 battling two RU tanks at once and winning.

Stridsvagn 122 or Non-German Leopards repair and maintenance peculiarities

  • They recalled from previous interview how the Leopards of Canada, Portugal, and Spain are almost the same from the repairman point of view.
  • All Leopards from different nations have the same German critical equipment (such as electronics). As a result, repairmen see little difference. There are some differences in weaponry (such as MGs), although they are not critical.
  • Stridsvagn 122 like Leopard 2A5, not 2A4.

Leopard Programmable and AP rounds

  • Programmable rounds might be delivered to the brigade that uses Leopard 2A6 vehicles. Upgrading of other tanks' guns is possible, but seems unlikely to happen [soon].
  • Says they do not have any information regarding using programmable rounds in combat [laughing]
  • Foreign AP rounds used by gun of the Leopard 2A4 penetrate absolutely all RU armored targets appearing on the battlefield at max effective range (3.5 - 4 km).
  • Germany did give UKR DM53 and the other top one (they do not remember the name)

Leopard 2 vs AT launchers and Kornet ATGM

  • For a long period, UKR extensively studied Kornet and even created [anti]Kornet training.
  • Captured RU Kornet featured a 10x zoom instead of 12 or 20 as advertised by RU for the export version.
  • Optics quality is poor. According to RU captured instructions, the field of view can vary between 5.5 and 8 degrees.
  • According to what UKR experts told him, RU does not have schemas [don't know what it is] and enough lenses to make uniformed sight. They make do with whatever they have. They manage to keep the zooming level consistent, but field of vision suffers.
  • Statistically speaking, artillery is responsible for the majority of losses, followed by aircraft and drones. AT weaponry - current tanks and ATGMs on the battlefield (including Metis, Kornet, Fagots, and Konkurs) come last. Kornet is responsible for less than ten percent [November 2023].
  • Claims RU admits that the quality of Kornets varies and that their capabilities are not always as good as they [soldiers] might expect.
  • There is a psychological aspect: Kornet does not have a remote control [like Stugna]. So, if you shoot at target from 4 kilometers away, the operator will be under fire for an extended period of time.
  • RU expended the bulk of the Soviet ATGM missile stock.
  • Engine problems plague a portion of the Soviet missile stockpile. The speed of missiles and engine activation time vary, impacting performance. Soviet-made MANPADS are also impacted.
  • RU solely checks these missiles' electronics. They do not inspect explosives/engines.
  • Claims that RU military reporters say that [because of the difficulties above], just three out of 11 missiles manage to reach the target [I have not seen RU reporters mentioning that, but I may have missed it].

Tanks vs FPV and Lancet

  • Cope Cages must be employed in the absence of another counter.
  • Powerful EW that completely blocks control of all types of drones [FPV depends on Mavic for target location] is necessary.
  • Simple Small weapons firing against drones (by squad/platoon) results in significant ammunition expenditure.
  • EW is the primary counter (every tank should have it), but he believes that in the absence of EW, the UKR would design cope cages similar to what Russia demonstrated at recent military exhibits - polyamide meshes covering not only the turret but also the transmission and driver compartment.
  • Discuses that explosively formed penetrator employed by new Lancets and other weapons] at range of 10 m with 60-70-80mm caliber and height 10m is enough to penetrate the top of the turret of UKR tanks (35-45mm).
  • Commenting on the new Lancet attack approach (explosion at 2m with a 45-degree trajectory angle at the turret top) - everything is dependent on operator training and how RU will decide employ Lancets. However, the overall technique is workable.
  • FPV is a modern production weapon, making it more reliable than RU Soviet ATGMs. As a result, it will be made in large quantities, and will become more important than ATGMs [he discusses the RU situation].
  • Drones are responsible for 5% of losses but this is only beginning
  • The main threats are artillery and aviation. And mines where the density for an area of 10 m by 100 m to 150 m is 10-15 AT mines since the Ukraine does not have enough mine rollers. Also, although the UKR began mass production of rollers, not every tank driver will dare to move forward, especially after 1-2 explosions (severe psychological strain).
  • He likes KMT-7 because it has a knife that may be utilized if the rollers are destroyed. However, UKR does not have them.

 

Edited by Grigb
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46 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ahh but cluster**** is great because it encompasses both the end state situation (what a cluster****), the behaviour/decisions that led to it (it was a Cluster**** of an operation), and the primary person causing it (he was a complete cluster****). Cluster****ery is also a fun albeit lesser used version. 

There's also the nice addition that it's a variation on an original military word (cluster mine) so it's particularly appropriate to military situations and personnel. 

Finally, for me personally the word cluster is something I associate with chickens (clustering together) so another nice tie in with stupid, herding behavior that leaves everyone vulnerable to disaster. 

Well I find your description of chickens hurtful and offensive to a wonderful bird that had given so much.  However, isn’t clusterf### too broad.  I think we need something else.  Dog humping a football.  Idiot orgy. (Both still have sexual connotations).  Or we go right to the source and make it personal: Russian Army Operation.

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6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

  Or we go right to the source and make it personal: Russian Army Operation.

Well I already covered that with The Russian Way of War, no? ... It provides for not just the Army but all service branches, and the too. BSF hasn't exactly covered itself in glory. In Dog poop - yes, just like my son throwing a tantrum and rolling around on a hill with dog faeces everywhere (true story, literally yesterday. Fun times). 

 

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1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Well I already covered that with The Russian Way of War, no? ... It provides for not just the Army but all service branches, and the too. BSF hasn't exactly covered itself in glory. In Dog poop - yes, just like my son throwing a tantrum and rolling around on a hill with dog faeces everywhere (true story, literally yesterday. Fun times). 

 

Dog **** Rolling...oh my that is a nice one.

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Interesting news from long-forgotten front.

Highest Council in Transinistria aims to appeal to Putin to accept their country as part of Russia.

https://www-infotag-md.translate.goog/rebellion/314032/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

It's part of some internal political dynamics and relations with Moldova, but perhaps worth to keep an eye on this.

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41 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Recently, I noticed that my UKR listening skills have improved noticeably. With the aid of translators and some effort, I can watch and translate UKR videos. So, let check the following interview with UKR AFV expert (former AFU tank officer)

 

 

Superb, and thank you! I love those kind of direct,  informed technical battlefield reviews. 

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18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I was thinking long time so far to write a short (?) dictionary of Russian filthy words (Rus. "mat"), which you often can hear in video or read in social media ))) 

 

 

I have some firsthand experience with umm, incoming mat

New Yorker also did a piece on it in 2003, reprinted below for those interested.

https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?A2=russian-teaching;aa8fa082.03

"In the Soviet period," he says, "the status of the high lexicon was devalued-words such as 'fatherland,' 'motherland,' 'truth.' In the context of Soviet ideology, these words acquired a negative resonance, not only for the general population but also for Party propagandists. In this situation, obscene words began to function as markers of authenticity."...

[Zhirinovsky] responded to my questions about mat with an impassioned speech: "This is our living language! Who has decided that mat is just bad words and deviant vocabulary? They're rejecting the language of the people. Obviously, part of the vocabulary of mat was created in the prisons, but then haven't we driven the entire population through the prisons? This language has become the norm!"

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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https://www.fmn.dk/da/nyheder/2024/ny-donationspakke-sikrer-15.000-artillerigranater-til--ukraine/
 

Quote

The government and the parliamentary parties agree on a new, large military donation package for Ukraine. The package has a value of approximately DKK 1.7 billion. kroner and ensures i.a. 15,000 pcs. artillery shells in cooperation with the Czech Republic.

 

Quote

"Ukraine continues to have a great need for support, including not least artillery ammunition. With donation package XV, Denmark contributes financially to the purchase of weapons and ammunition. Both via other countries, including the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and through a continuation of the good and important cooperation with the Danish defense industry", says Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.  

"The war in Ukraine is entering its third year, and here the continued military support for Ukraine is completely decisive for the outcome of the war. That is why I am happy that, in cooperation with close partners and with broad support from the Danish Parliament, we are now making another significant contribution to the Ukrainians on the battlefield, who are fighting for not only Ukraine's freedom, but the security of all of Europe," says Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen .

Through contact with the Czech Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Defense has financed the acquisition of 15,000 units. 155 mm artillery ammunition to be delivered within a few months to Ukraine.  

 

Edited by cesmonkey
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https://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/s-9097
Germany's Bundestag votes against Taurus missiles to Ukraine

 

 

Quote

Bundestag votes for delivering 'long-range weapons' to Ukraine

The German parliament has voted in favor of a motion put forward by the country's ruling coalition, which called for providing "additional, necessary long-range weapons systems and ammunition" to Ukraine.

The measure, however, did not explicitly mention the delivery of the Taurus cruise missile system to Kyiv.

While 382 lawmakers voted for the motion, 284 rejected it and 2 abstained.

There are differences in views among the parties of the ruling coalition as to whether the wording also allows for the delivery of Taurus missiles.

While politicians from the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and environmentalist Greens say that it does, the SPD rejects this interpretation.


 

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/137548
 

Quote

🇩🇪The Bundestag voted for a recommendation to provide
Ukraine with long-range systems for delivering "point strikes deep in the rear of the Russian aggressor."

This is a coalition document, unlike the opposition document, which was rejected a little earlier today .

 

Edited by cesmonkey
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2 hours ago, Grigb said:

How did western tanks show themselves in the war in Ukraine?

Challenger 2

  • Challenger 2 used in Airborne-Assault Brigade.
  • There is 1 company in the Brigade
  • Tank is akin to very powerfull sniper rifle
  • Very powerfull protection
  • Crews training is very good
  • Crews are delighted
  • Crews who previously trained on T-80b say Challenger 2 way better - more powerful rounds, accuracy, reliability of equipment, engine
  • Cannot say whether antitank rounds are as powerful as UKR media claimed because as they do not have as many fields with size of 4 km [to chekc it in battle] and because as soon as a RU formation realizes that Airborne-Assault Brigade present they avoid engagements [with Challengers]
  • Disadvantage: too few of them
  • Weight 60 ton is not a big issue - they do not have many places (where fighting is) where bridges need to be specifically build or reinforced to use 60 ton

Leopard 1

  • Old tank. Old technology and a weak engine.
  • There are several issues that arise as a result of the lengthy retirement (shortest 15 years, longest 30 years). There is an issue with steel fatigue. Several characteristics have been lost. Electronic problems [limited utility].
  • All of the above need great effort to utilize Leopard 1 without resulting in major losses.
  • However, the L7 gun is good, and current 105mm ammunition is superior to typical Soviet and Russian 125mm ammo.
  • He saw photos of Svinets 1/2, but none had been found inside the captured tanks.
  • Not all RU tanks accept Svinets. Not every Russian tanker is familiar with Svinets.
  • They will most likely receive Kontakt-1 (After Leopard 2A4)

Leopard 2А4

  • They were concerned that the protection of 2A4 was inadequate [compared to modern UKR tanks]. They were wrong.
  • Protection is good. NERA isn't worse than Kontakt 1 or 5.
  • They did upgraded Leopard 2A4's protection with Kontakt 1.

Leopard 2A4 ERA upgrade

  • Claims decision to install ERA had been discussed and agreed upon with tank designers.
  • Portions of Leo 2A4 [November 2023] are significantly improved with ERA.
  • The back of the turret, which is not covered by the ERA, will be secured with nets (against drones).
  • Discusses the fact that ERA cannot be used to cover all surfaces owing to armor thickness requirements. Some surfaces may be protected by boxes with tankers stuff. However, discussions with the tank manufacturer are necessary, which can take time.
  • As a consequence of UKR requirements, there may be a new modification of Leopard.

Possible future upgrades

  • Individual EW is a must.
  • Communication and command/control systems.
  • Upgrades are beneficial, but the primary focus should be on crew and unit training up to battalions and brigades' headquarters.
  • Comments that while international partners are aware of changing war requirements, it takes 6-8-10 years for the next generation of tanks to appear. So, they do learn from UKR and their own mistakes, but the results will take time to appear.

Leopard 2A6

  • Upgraded version of 2A4 and 2A5. Better commander control owing to the upgraded Commander Panoramic sight, which has its own thermal imager. It allows commanders to better survey the battlefield and find targets faster than gunner.
  • Improved protection. Reuleaux or beak [turret armor kits] offer significantly higher protection. They've seen several vids of the 2A6 battling two RU tanks at once and winning.

Stridsvagn 122 or Non-German Leopards repair and maintenance peculiarities

  • They recalled from previous interview how the Leopards of Canada, Portugal, and Spain are almost the same from the repairman point of view.
  • All Leopards from different nations have the same German critical equipment (such as electronics). As a result, repairmen see little difference. There are some differences in weaponry (such as MGs), although they are not critical.
  • Stridsvagn 122 like Leopard 2A5, not 2A4.

Leopard Programmable and AP rounds

  • Programmable rounds might be delivered to the brigade that uses Leopard 2A6 vehicles. Upgrading of other tanks' guns is possible, but seems unlikely to happen [soon].
  • Says they do not have any information regarding using programmable rounds in combat [laughing]
  • Foreign AP rounds used by gun of the Leopard 2A4 penetrate absolutely all RU armored targets appearing on the battlefield at max effective range (3.5 - 4 km).
  • Germany did give UKR DM53 and the other top one (they do not remember the name)

Leopard 2 vs AT launchers and Kornet ATGM

  • For a long period, UKR extensively studied Kornet and even created [anti]Kornet training.
  • Captured RU Kornet featured a 10x zoom instead of 12 or 20 as advertised by RU for the export version.
  • Optics quality is poor. According to RU captured instructions, the field of view can vary between 5.5 and 8 degrees.
  • According to what UKR experts told him, RU does not have schemas [don't know what it is] and enough lenses to make uniformed sight. They make do with whatever they have. They manage to keep the zooming level consistent, but field of vision suffers.
  • Statistically speaking, artillery is responsible for the majority of losses, followed by aircraft and drones. AT weaponry - current tanks and ATGMs on the battlefield (including Metis, Kornet, Fagots, and Konkurs) come last. Kornet is responsible for less than ten percent [November 2023].
  • Claims RU admits that the quality of Kornets varies and that their capabilities are not always as good as they [soldiers] might expect.
  • There is a psychological aspect: Kornet does not have a remote control [like Stugna]. So, if you shoot at target from 4 kilometers away, the operator will be under fire for an extended period of time.
  • RU expended the bulk of the Soviet ATGM missile stock.
  • Engine problems plague a portion of the Soviet missile stockpile. The speed of missiles and engine activation time vary, impacting performance. Soviet-made MANPADS are also impacted.
  • RU solely checks these missiles' electronics. They do not inspect explosives/engines.
  • Claims that RU military reporters say that [because of the difficulties above], just three out of 11 missiles manage to reach the target [I have not seen RU reporters mentioning that, but I may have missed it].

Tanks vs FPV and Lancet

  • Cope Cages must be employed in the absence of another counter.
  • Powerful EW that completely blocks control of all types of drones [FPV depends on Mavic for target location] is necessary.
  • Simple Small weapons firing against drones (by squad/platoon) results in significant ammunition expenditure.
  • EW is the primary counter (every tank should have it), but he believes that in the absence of EW, the UKR would design cope cages similar to what Russia demonstrated at recent military exhibits - polyamide meshes covering not only the turret but also the transmission and driver compartment.
  • Discuses that explosively formed penetrator employed by new Lancets and other weapons] at range of 10 m with 60-70-80mm caliber and height 10m is enough to penetrate the top of the turret of UKR tanks (35-45mm).
  • Commenting on the new Lancet attack approach (explosion at 2m with a 45-degree trajectory angle at the turret top) - everything is dependent on operator training and how RU will decide employ Lancets. However, the overall technique is workable.
  • FPV is a modern production weapon, making it more reliable than RU Soviet ATGMs. As a result, it will be made in large quantities, and will become more important than ATGMs [he discusses the RU situation].
  • Drones are responsible for 5% of losses but this is only beginning
  • The main threats are artillery and aviation. And mines where the density for an area of 10 m by 100 m to 150 m is 10-15 AT mines since the Ukraine does not have enough mine rollers. Also, although the UKR began mass production of rollers, not every tank driver will dare to move forward, especially after 1-2 explosions (severe psychological strain).
  • He likes KMT-7 because it has a knife that may be utilized if the rollers are destroyed. However, UKR does not have them.

Thanks for the translation!  Some of this was not surprising in concept, but not known in detail.

What I found most interesting was the combination of poor manufacturing standards with decades of poor storage as how it impacts the performance of Kornet.  Even if I don't take the 3 out of 11 number fact, it's probable that the ratio of success to failure skews towards failure.

Steve

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33 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Shining example of the West's over reliance upon massive systems which can not be scaled up to meet unanticipated needs.  The military industrial complex is probably, ironically, not happy about this war dragging out because it is highlighting this problem.  They've grown fat and comfortable over the decades of defensive posture.  This war is lighting some fires under arses that are highlighting this uncomfortable fact.

Steve

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4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

But F#ck is so over used in the English language, to the point it loses nuance.  Goat Rodeo?  Dumpster Fire?  

I think my employer owns most of the IP around the use of "Dumpster Fire", including an emoji of an actual dumpster fire on our own site.

(eta: and goats are too cute for a goat rodeo to be a bad thing)

Edited by chrisl
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6 hours ago, Sojourner said:

Surprisingly good article in WaPo today…

What the Pentagon has learned from two years of war in Ukraine

With hundreds of thousands dead or wounded and still no end in sight, the conflict has revealed that U.S. battlefield calculations must evolve

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/22/ukraine-war-pentagon-lessons-learned/

 

Pretty much the same conclusions as reached here.

It is the cancellation of the advanced scout helicopter that gives me the most hope/proof that someone is paying attention. Spending billions on that one was just nuts.

Edit: And it was very significant ox to get gored in terms of the military industrial complex.

Edited by dan/california
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