How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kimbosbread]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

One thing our CHOD said that did stick - "We know combined arms will continue to be central to the western way of warfare.  What those 'arms' are and how they are integrated appears to be the question."

Maybe you should be calling it “distributed arms and eyes”.

[poesel]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

It is a fairly robust assumption they will not get either. AIM 120D is the newest one in US use, IIRC. The US have never released their latest stuff to the Ukraine. Meteor is AFAIK not integrated with F-16 at all. At least I have never seen it fly with one.

You are right, but it seems to be doable. And if they managed to put HARMS on Mig-29s then a Meteor on an F-16 is a piece of cake

https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/meteor-potential-improvement-of-ukrainian-f-16/

[Battlefront.com]

Fox News, oddly enough, is about to do the sort of interview that Carlson was ideologically and morally too cowardly to do... frontline interview with Zelensky:

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4480982-fox-interview-zelensky-bret-baier-front-lines-of-war/

Steve

[omae2]

Any news on unmanned demining devices?

Seems to me that one of the major issue could be solved with low and small devices that can mark mines or delay destroy them. Mines take away any element of surprise that makes force concentration a futile thing unless you willing to pay a hefty price. Most of the unmanned vehicles are air or sea but land duty i only saw some mule that carried supplies. If you could make them hard to spot they could check the ground of possible avenues of attack. Also could be used to amplify signals for other unmanned vehicles.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So you want me to make a bet I want to lose? 

I would like to make a bet over something you belive is unreasonable (recapturing 100% of territory). I hold different opinion and ready to bet. 

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

How about this -  I will send gin if this war ends unconditionally and without compromise - on either side. 

For different reasons this exact scenario I assess as unlikely and not ready to bet on it. There is second bet I can offer - the war ends with UKR victory (means RU withdrawal from 100% of UKR territory + official end of hostilities/peace agreement) in the timeframe: between 9 month and 15 months from now.  All conditions above must be met for my victory. In all other cases it is your victory. 

As 15 months is a long period then on 31 of December 2024, I will ask Steve to help us and make a decision if the overall situation has signs of possible UKR victory in time defined by me or not.  In case the decision is negative (no signs of possible victory in time frame I defined) I will concede the defeat.

If there is disagreement on anything I will ask Steve to make the decision and will honor it. 

The prize is a bottle of Gin (I suggest our own choosing because it is not about money and to avoid the hassle of finding the exact one required).  

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I would like to make a bet over something you belive is unreasonable (recapturing 100% of territory). I hold different opinion and ready to bet. 

For different reasons this exact scenario I assess as unlikely and not ready to bet on it. There is second bet I can offer - the war ends with UKR victory (means RU withdrawal from 100% of UKR territory + official end of hostilities/peace agreement) in the timeframe: between 9 month and 15 months from now.  All conditions above must be met for my victory. In all other cases it is your victory. 

As 15 months is a long period then on 31 of December 2024, I will ask Steve to help us and make a decision if the overall situation has signs of possible UKR victory in time defined by me or not.  In case the decision is negative (no signs of possible victory in time frame I defined) I will concede the defeat.

If there is disagreement on anything I will ask Steve to make the decision and will honor it. 

The prize is a bottle of Gin (I suggest our own choosing because it is not about money and to avoid the hassle of finding the exact one required).  

So a complete withdrawal to pre-2014 lines and a lasting peace agreement that allows Ukraine to enter NATO.  You are on and I earnestly hope I lose this bet.

[chrisl]

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

FOV is never variable in our setups. The camera position is fixed, no (dynamic) zooming or swiveling whatsoever. So basically a pixel always covers the same solid angle. Makes sensor fusion (e.g. with lidar) easier. For us, detecting and classifying objects beyond 100m is a real challenge.

You have to do it all in realtime, probably with an underpowered computer (even if it's pretty powerful by 2 years ago standards).

Drone cameras are primarily intended for drone operations and there's not a lot of reason to constrain them for sensor fusion if it doesn't have to be realtime.  Slurp it all up, send it all to a data store, and some combination of people and computers can chew on it at their leisure.

[Kinophile]

Another one of these also... 

 

[Haiduk]

HIMARS strike near Volnovakha allegedly has took a life of colonel Gusein Musayev, commander of 36th motor-rifle brigade. He lined up 2nd motor-rifle battalion, before a visit of major-general Oleg Moiseev, commander of 29th CAA. Our guys slightly hurried up with a strike. 

In Borzia district of Transbaikal region, from where is 36th brigade a mourning is announced

 

Though as became knowingly, this strike got a big resonance, because it aftermath was filmed by cameras of many soldiers, survived after the hit. A week before, on 14th Feb the same incident was near Dokuchayevsk, the town near Volnovakha, but both RUS TGs and local sources have written only about a fact of strike, but losses still unknown. On the range near Dokuchayevsk there were about 300 servicemen

But this is not all. Several hours ago, Russian TGs reported about the same incident with HIMARS on lined up troops on the range in Kherson oblast

Two majors TG

The range. Kherson oblast. Again.

Comrade officers and junior commanders. Please, take responsibility on yourselfs.

 

Callsign OSETN TG  

Today a range again. Kherson oblast. Nobody disn't cancel dolboyebizm [I can't translate this in Englisg equivalent - it means "enormously fu...g stupid way of decision making or a deed]. A Kingdom of God for lads. Khokhols, don't laugh, you will be fu...d at all. 

[Kinophile]

7 is official. 

[Kinophile]

@Haiduk

Quote

dolboyebizm [I can't translate this in Englisg equivalent - it means "enormously fu...g stupid way of decision making or a deed].

Amazing, love it. Today's "Word Of The Thread", and also good shorthand for The Russian Way of War. 

Cue everyone searching for the English equivalent while trying to stay inside the profanity lines...

Edited February 21 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Amazing, love it.

I was thinking long time so far to write a short (?) dictionary of Russian filthy words (Rus. "mat"), which you often can hear in video or read in social media ))) 

[dan/california]

52 minutes ago, zinz said:

Well think about how much fun we are making about bad Russian targeting with their missile campaigns. We will see if autonomous systems will do any better 

The system will always be a blend of humans and AI, the trick of course is getting the RIGHT blend. If the AI can make a decent first pass at the never ending avalanche of sensor data, and reduce the number of humans it takes to make it make sense from 5000 to 50 it is a rather big deal. 

 

Quote

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-new-sensor-on-this-drone-can-scan-a-whole-city-at-once-33c314d4c763#id_token=eyJhbGciOiJSUzI1NiIsImtpZCI6IjU1YzE4OGE4MzU0NmZjMTg4ZTUxNTc2YmE3MjgzNmUwNjAwZThiNzMiLCJ0eXAiOiJKV1QifQ.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.bdEcjdVnJFcnqU3HNFplIU_BPQbgh14xLge3LGERdv25uNG9T-PbSydDpByJFlU-F4NE-eORFh64NyubdEuQ2U0stBgFfGOzt2oiwauGNYfB6oA-xAZ7jIN2nzlzGBjNztdvXlZCcc89otanmTZE9BXh0d30y7iE-Y3Qu_Autb-Fc-VJLgyXRqyB_7Aa-gkmQG3KOxtWzKRsEvB6PfIQsqi_JoU6vpUo1Bg2HbyCHrtR2e6mfOCTNSMuf4A_26n63VRHLG7YZoeBleTuji91UdAN9_fljgvpqNR5Xy-au5tF1CisHWg4gvYh78Fc3Hl2qd4wGp-HgvcPX0WELxCntw

Apologies for what is apparently the worlds longest hyperlink. This an old story, and about a system that is sort of the opposite of cheap and expendable. It does do a pretty good job of giving a feel for how it is possible to collect more data than you can possibly go through without some sort of massive AI assistance. 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Fox News, oddly enough, is about to do the sort of interview that Carlson was ideologically and morally too cowardly to do... frontline interview with Zelensky:

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4480982-fox-interview-zelensky-bret-baier-front-lines-of-war/

Steve

Can't say I'm surprised that it is Bret Baier...In a good way.

When this craziness started in 2022 interestingly enough Fox News was my primary source for following this war, I thought they did a good job of covering it from the ground and I liked Bret Baier's presentations from the studio.

Can't say I felt the same way about what Tucker was saying later in the day, seeing good coverage earlier in the day and watching Tucker repeat his obviously pro-Russian talking points was like watching two different networks. It was just a bizarre feeling that I will never forget.

Good to see Bret is still trying to give President Zelenskyy the voice he deserves. If I'm not mistaken one of Zelenskyy's first interviews on American television when the war started was with Bret.

Edit: Maks 23 just posted a preview of the interview.

 

Edited February 21 by Harmon Rabb

[kimbosbread]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I was thinking long time so far to write a short (?) dictionary of Russian filthy words (Rus. "mat"), which you often can hear in video or read in social media ))) 

As my transnistrian-aficionado friend put it, in Russian “penis” is bad, and “pussy” is good. So anything “piz-“ is penis-related, therefore bad (ie pizdor).

[Haiduk]

Russian squad assaults a single UKR soldier in ruines of house in Krynky, but got at least 2 WIA (from radio chat Russian soldier says "We have 2 "300, one is heavy") and withdrew.

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

in Russian “penis” is bad, and “pussy” is good. So anything “piz-“ is penis-related, therefore bad (ie pizdor).

Ahah, no, all depends on the form of word and context ))) Even a form "pizdets" derived from "pizda" ("pussy") can have both positive and negative meaning depending on context )

Edited February 21 by Haiduk

[Letter from Prague]

My God, this is like tenth time someone killed a high ranking Russian and bunch of soldiers because they showed up in strike range and someone organized a parade.

Why would you keep making the same stupid mistake again and again and again and again.

It's stupidity like this that makes me hopeful that Ukraine will win.

[Haiduk]

UKR reenacting community lost two guys at once, reenactors of WWII Brits

Here they are both during pre-war reenacting event

 

[Offshoot]

59 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Today a range again. Kherson oblast. Nobody disn't cancel dolboyebizm [I can't translate this in Englisg equivalent - it means "enormously fu...g stupid way of decision making or a deed]

In British English you might call it a "cock up" (ruin something as a result of incompetence or inefficiency) but it includes a dose of British understatement so perhaps doesn't capture the magnitude of the Russian word - "massive cock up" might rectify that.

[FancyCat]

i think Russia is focusing on offensives that grind down its ability to wage war, for little strategic gain in lieu for political goals. Key is to not let the political goals of these offensives succeed, which is cutting off Western aid to Ukraine. If these reports of Russian fighters dropping out the sky continue, definitely speaks to the need for Russia to keep offensive operations going. 

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

dolboyebizm [I can't translate this in Englisg equivalent

FUBAR come close, although it's an acronym it is used as a word. Perhaps closer in meaning is a couplet - cluster f***, or Charlie Foxtrot if in polite company.

[Fenris]

Drone footage of two HIMARS strikes against groups of infantry.  Can clearly see the splash of the ball bearings on the second one.  It's not gory but is graphic how the effects are clearly visible.

Local defence in Kreminna forest.  Interesting as shows night time use of de-mining charges at the start.  Although unclear how it relates to the following day time footage, am guessing the RU infantry were trying infiltration.

So can UKR have ATACMS now?  Have seen this posted elsewhere as well with claims of various types on Iranian missiles involved.

 

Edited February 21 by Fenris

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

Yeah, thanks again, a polite discussion is just not your thing, is it?

It is you who poison the debate by using inappropriate term in regards of F-16 implying somebody in this debate somehow considers F-16 to be a magical weapon. I will repeat - nobody in the debate you currently participate in assigns any magical properties to F-16 yet you insist on using Wunderwaffe reference.

You disrespect the debate but complain about my hostility. 

 

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

I obviously called the F16 "the next Wunderwaffe" in reference to the military utility of the real historic Wunderwaffen

Which is wildly inappropriate because none of your opponents considering or referring to or implying F-16 to be magic weapon. 

 

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

and in reference to all the other systems, like Leopards, that were praised before as certainly war winning.

I do remember several weapons being praised on the level that can be certainly be called as "War Winning". I do not remeber anyone expected that a certain weapon would be able to deal with the threat it was not supposed to deal with. 

Let's take Leopard. Everybody expected Leopards to give UKR dominant, war winning edge against apropriate targets. Nobody expected Leopards to swiftly defeat helicopters or planes. 

Did Leopard give UKR the ability to dominate in land battle? Let's look at the data we have.

• When Leopard engaged two T-72 or T-90s with HE, they promptly withdrew
• UKR tanker with Soviet experience says that with Leopard they are able to hit any target with first shot (no wonder T tanks withdrew)
• Description of Leopards caught in ambush:  

The brigade's attack and our tankers [looks like platoon] ran into an ambush by a t-62 tank company. It was hidden very well. Moreover, it was so camouflaged that even thermal imagers could not detect it. There were multi-layered mats. And 115mm armor-piercing sub-caliber shells from a distance of about 800 m were used to shot head-on at leopards 2A4. Leopards withstood more than one hit. Some tanks had two hits, some tanks had three hits.

The available data shows Leopards gave UKR dominant, war winning edge in land battle against threats tank is supposed to handle just like public expected. 

The real issue is different - your unfounded belief that Leopards were referred to as war winning weapons becasue public expected Leopards to defeat threats they were not supposed to handle.

 

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

Look at the internet, it's full of the poeple using exactly this reference as a warning that F16s will not fundamentally change the situation in this war.

And who exactly here needs this warning? Whom do you warn if, as I said, nobody considers F-16 magic weapon here? 

 

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

I am happy to learn why this is a wrong assessment but no, I'm certainly not literally the only one.

Insisting on calling F-16 "the next Wunderwaffe"? I do not see anybody else doing it here. If somebody somewhere calls F-16 a magic weapon you are certainly free to use the Wunderwaffe reference, there. 

 

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

Patriots aren't F16s, though, and I was talking about the latter.

You stated quote: F16s are just the next Wunderwaffe that won't fundamentally change the situation. I gave you facts about how a single weapon system performing the same task that appropriately armed F-16 supposed to do, fundamentally changed the situation.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

My God, this is like tenth time someone killed a high ranking Russian and bunch of soldiers because they showed up in strike range and someone organized a parade.

Why would you keep making the same stupid mistake again and again and again and again.

It's stupidity like this that makes me hopeful that Ukraine will win.

See: hostomel airport

Edit: wait, not hostomel. What was that airport near Kherson that the Russians just *kept* deploying helos to?

Edited February 21 by JonS