Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Butschi said: Trying a potentially flawed WW2 comparison myself: France and UK declared war on Germany because they had guaranteed Poland's freedom. If you go by stated wargoals at the beginning of a war, and look at them a year into the war, both countries failed miserably. Poland was occupied, France had surrendered and the UK had to leave all their heavy equipment in Dunkirk. But as you say yourself, the calculations for victory/defeat are finalized later and at least UK is generally considered to be part of the winning team (France was more of a political decision, I think?) It is a very good comparison, in that it shows that there may be different wargoals for different participants. To crudely simplify that very complex topic: UK and France wargoals included lengthy mobilisation and then defeating III Reich via a combination of blockade, strategic bombardment and positional warfare. They assumed that Poland can well be defeated in the meantime, and intended to fulfill the alliance by reinstating Poland after the final Anglo-French victory. Poles were not officially told that, though. Some Polish officers and politicians understood that just from their own analysis of the situation. But most people waited for the French to start their relief offensive after the first week of the war, and the actual expectation was that we will hold the Germans at worst at the Vistula before the French destroy the Wehrmacht from behind . Official position of the Ukraine being full return to legitimate borders, my hunch is that their minimum win condition is to reinstate the pre-2022 border in the south while retaining freedom to join Nato and EU. An armistice line in Donetsk and Lugansk changed in Russian's favour could probably be accepted after much wringing of hands. Now it is a moonscape anyway. On the other hand, some nations supporting Ukraine can have entirely different perspective on what constitutes a win. No nuclear exchange and Ukraine avoiding total subjugation, possibly. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Kraft said: Maxim Kuzminov, the russian Pilot who surrendered the helicopter to Ukraine last year was found dead in Spain. That is very bad news. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 As for bleak moments, well to note 1942 and 1943 for the Allies. For China, it was 8 years of war. Tho it’s hard to make comparisons, if these reports of Russian casualties are true, I’m reminded of Germany’s focus on offensives on the Eastern Front after Stalingrad, where instead of moving to the defensive, Germany exhausted itself attempting to regain strategic initiative. Oh sure, Germany replaced some of its manpower and equipment but certainly had they gone to the defense, they might have held on longer in the East. and good points made about the lack of a counterattack, especially with western equipment. As long as Ukraine conserves manpower, equipment, they can sacrifice towns that have been on the frontline for years that are nothing more than rubble. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, panzermartin said: Hey, we "peacefully" existed 400 years under the ottoman rule after the fall of Istanbul. You spelt Constantinople wrong:) I do not think that there has yet been the opportunity for Istanbul to fall, the name is in official use for less than 100 yrs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Kraft said: Maxim Kuzminov, the russian Pilot who surrendered the helicopter to Ukraine last year was found dead in Spain. Source? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ales Dvorak Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 11 minutes ago, Grigb said: First of all, it does not work like this. We are not in the court room, and we are not in the court procedure. We are making assessments based on available information Second, we have two solid facts - the most important for Putin pipe was not blowen. And the same pipe is actually in fully working condition. So, let me be clear - I do have solid facts for my assessment while you both do not. All you have is your opinion that these two facts are not enough for you to make your own assessment. Fair enought. Now, given your opinion (that you need something more credible) please provide me with screenshots when you ask the same thing from RU public (for example screenshots of you asking RU public to provide credible source for Putin statement that US did it). If you fail to provide them then I am forced to make an assessment that opinion is not based on your fair judgment but on your personal pro-RU bias. If we were in court room then you would need solid evidence. But we're not so it's ok for you to say " So, let me be clear - I do have solid facts for my assessment while you both do not. All you have is your opinion that these two facts are not enough for you to make your own assessment. Fair enought." Still I can't see your solid facts, just your words. I never said USA did it so why I have provide you with screenshots of asking the same thing from RU public? "If you fail to provide them then I am forced to make an assessment that opinion is not based on your fair judgment but on your personal pro-RU bias." Don't know what exactly I have to provide to you, but if this is your final conclusion so it be. While we are at gas... From 15 January 2009 /Partly translated - whole article is in the link/ Moscow/Kiev/Brussels/Zagreb/Ljubljana - Ukraine does not have a unified position regarding the invitation of the Russian summit to the meeting of Russian gas consumers. While Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko agreed to come to Moscow in a telephone conversation with her Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, the country's President Viktor Yushchenko rejected this possibility on Wednesday and does not want to attend the meeting. According to the agreement between Tymoshenko and Putin, Russia and Ukraine are expected to sit down at the joint table on Saturday and try to resolve the gas dispute, which has left European countries still without Russian gas. The heads of government of the two countries agreed on the meeting on Wednesday night in a telephone conversation. Link https://old.delo.si/gospodarstvo/poziv-rusiji-in-ukrajini-k-takojsnji-dobavi-plina.html Peaches and cream. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said: Patton was no hero and isn't worth celebrating. Come on, he posted an interesting quote which happened to be said by George Patton and not celebration of George Patton. Is Patton now cancelled to the effect that all his quotes are thoughtcrime? I did not get the latest memo from the Ministry of Truth, apologies. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Russia is largely able to pull this off because it is on the offensive. AGS, HMGs, light mortars, etc. are critical for defensive ops, not critical for rushing a bunch of infantry 100s of meters to a trench and (if they survive the journey) dropping them off. However, on the defense the enemy comes to you and if you can't reach out and stop them then you give the attacker a huge advantage. That doesn't track with Russia's defensive success last year? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said: You spelt Constantinople wrong:) I do not think that there has yet been the opportunity for Istanbul to fall, the name is in official use for less than 100 yrs. Yes of course is Constantinople. Been in Istanbul the last week and got carried away. Thanks. Or maybe it is because I visited Hagia Sophia and there's almost nothing left of the greek /byzantine past inside Edited February 19 by panzermartin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Source? Quote Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR), confirmed to Kyiv Post the death of Russian pilot Kuzminov, who seized control of a Russian armoured combat Mi-8 helicopter and brought it safely to an airbase in the Kharkiv region back in August of 2023. "We can confirm the fact of death," Yusov told Kyiv Post, providing no additional details. According to Russian media, Maksim Kuzminov was shot dead, with at least five bullets in his body. He was found in an underground parking lot in the municipality of Villajoyosa, in the province of Alicante, Spain. Last August, Ukrainian intelligence conducted a successful operation "Titmouse" - Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov voluntarily brought a Mi-8 helicopter from Russia to Kharkiv region, into the hands of awaiting Ukrainian military intelligence. Here Edited February 19 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, panzermartin said: You think so? History has taught us that the fall first comes from moral/economic /social decline and bad strategies of decades not because of an individual's thoughts. No, Russia alone can't do that much damage to us, just like the Huns didn't bring Rome down all on their own. The Huns, to be clear, collapsed before Rome did. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) 19 minutes ago, JonS said: That doesn't track with Russia's defensive success last year? Not only that but I find the anecdote of a missing mortar tube being indicative of deep material shortages and extrapolation to war of attrition outcomes very stretched. Theres shortages on both sides and temp lack of supply, but I think everyone is aware where the shortages are significantly worse... Edited February 19 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiggathebauce Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 12 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said: Come on, he posted an interesting quote which happened to be said by George Patton and not celebration of George Patton. Is Patton now cancelled to the effect that all his quotes are thoughtcrime? I did not get the latest memo from the Ministry of Truth, apologies. Amazing how valid criticism from one person is a full on cancellation of your favorite general by the proletariat. Here's a tissue, comrade. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, panzermartin said: Yes of course is Constantinople. Been in Istanbul the last week and got carried away. Thanks. Or maybe it is because I visited Hagia Sophia and there's almost nothing left of the greek /byzantine past inside Well, at least the Byzantians had peace. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 9 minutes ago, Kraft said: Here Could be a story to make him dissapear with a new identity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said: Amazing how valid criticism from one person is a full on cancellation of your favorite general by the proletariat. Here's a tissue, comrade. You're right, it's only you, so who cares. Edited February 19 by Aragorn2002 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Could be a story to make him dissapear with a new identity. Then why would russia report it first? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, Kraft said: Not only that but I find the anecdote of a missing mortar tube being indicative of deep material shortages and somehow a 'see russia cant win war of attrition' very stretched. The problem is that I think you are confusing “Russian can win a war of attrition” (which is of course possible if Ukraine loses the will to fight and/or the west loses will to support); and, “Russia is winning a war of attrition.” which is largely backed up by a lot of rumour and conjecture. As soon as I see 1) significant operational gains made by Russia, 2) Ukrainian overtures for peace settlements from positions of weakness and 3) Billions no longer being poured into Ukraine (the US is only one supporter in all this), then I may be willing to jump on the Doom Train. People have been crying that Russia is winning since Feb ‘22, yet the evidence of this is extremely short. If winning means completely failing to achieve strategic or political objectives, smashing what was once a considerable military force into pieces while losing coming up on 3-4 times what was lost in Afghanistan, and setting their economy up for continued compression and eventual collapse - I could add a lot more but what is the point really - well let’s all hope that Russia keeps on “winning”. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 27 minutes ago, JonS said: That doesn't track with Russia's defensive success last year? Good point. Yes, it does appear that a ton of mines and fortifications can make up for the lack of support weapons and we should presume Russia will have the opportunity to do this again in other sectors of the front. However, once the attacker is through the mines or engaging less prepared positions, I'm sure it makes a difference. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Well, at least the Byzantians had peace. Ehehe. It has always been Pax Romana, Pax ottomana, Pax Europeana, Pax Americana for us small countries. Some peaces are better than others though I admit 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Battlefront.com said: Good point. Yes, it does appear that a ton of mines and fortifications can make up for the lack of support weapons and we should presume Russia will have the opportunity to do this again in other sectors of the front. However, once the attacker is through the mines or engaging less prepared positions, I'm sure it makes a difference. Steve From last summer it really did not take much to defend. Troop density was very low (still is). Minefield density was crazy high. Most of the damage looked to be done by ATGMs, the odd sniping tanks, tac aviation and artillery - all backed up by UAS ISR. If we are in Defensive primacy then defending is being effected by very high force multiplication. What is driving that multiplication? Is the key question. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, Kraft said: Then why would russia report it first? So this is a Russian site? Well, in that case.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, The_Capt said: From last summer it really did not take much to defend. Troop density was very low (still is). Minefield density was crazy high. Most of the damage looked to be done by ATGMs, the odd sniping tanks, tac aviation and artillery - all backed up by UAS ISR. If we are in Defensive primacy then defending is being effected by very high force multiplication. What is driving that multiplication? Is the key question. From what we saw it was mostly mines and very large numbers of well positioned/constructed bunkers. I'm not even sure artillery played that big of a role in keeping the Ukrainians from advancing. It seems the mines all on their own were enough. Add in the occasional ATGM hit and attacks stalled out. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: So this is a Russian site? Well, in that case.... No, the page quoted a HUR official, who confirmed the russian news. Theres also a video with police on scene floating around. Suffice to say russian agents still have a large reach 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just for illustration - Avdiivka coke plant 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.