How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

As per Haiduk

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

GUR unit "Group 13" has issued a video of attack on "Tsezar Kunnikov".

Budanov has good feel of humor - Soviet officer Tsezar Kunnikov, who led landing group on Gelendzhyk bridgehead was killed on 14th Feb 1943

 

[Offshoot]

47 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Likely GUR later will post a video of attack.

It didn't take long

Edit: but I did take too long

Edited February 14 by Offshoot

[hcrof]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

GUR unit "Group 13" has issued a video of attack on "Tsezar Kunnikov".

Budanov has good feel of humor - Soviet officer Tsezar Kunnikov, who led landing group on Gelendzhyk bridgehead was killed on 14th Feb 1943

 

I have noticed that sea drones tend to have a very odd attack pattern where they never go in straight lines and also attack one-by-one. This video shows drones almost making 90degree turns only a few hundred meters from its target. 

It looks inefficient but it clearly works, does anyone know more?

[Offshoot]

41 minutes ago, hcrof said:

It looks inefficient but it clearly works, does anyone know more?

The Russians always claim they destroy sea drones before they hit, so likely evasive maneuvers to try to avoid fire. They could also be using decoy drones to draw fire while another makes an attack run. In this case it looks like three drones all hit the same spot midship.

It also must be difficult to get a sense of the ship's speed through the FPV so they might have to make sharp adjustments to target especially specific points on the ship. And they also might have protocols to limit collisions between the different drones, for example holding patterns while waiting.

Edited February 14 by Offshoot

[Holien]

16 minutes ago, hcrof said:

This video shows drones almost making 90degree turns only a few hundred meters from its target. 

It looks inefficient but it clearly works, does anyone know more?

I think it is more likely one of these or a mixture of sea state and currents / wind which makes it hard to handle, that and command delays with the controls so not perfect handling as we might expect.

We need a naval grog who plays with remote control replicas on boating ponds.

 

[hcrof]

All good points, I also wonder whether going straight at the ship leaves a wake which is easy to see in the dark. By manoeuvring erratically the wake will be obscured by waves and so the drone will be hard to spot, even with image intensifiers. 

[Grigb]

Regarding fires at RU fuel plants. Below is Milov explanation (from the interview)

• The production of RU fuel began to drop. It has already fallen by 4%, with Lukoil production fallen by 8%. It is a significant drop because the RU fuel market is quite delicate.
• There are two factors here: UKR strikes and a rise in equipment failure due to unknown [to Milov] causes, but most likely due to poor maintenance and repair as a result of sanctions [sanctions work but more slowly than expected]. All of the equipment used to produce high-quality gasoline is Western.
• The RU has just about two dozen fuel plants. Thus, critical disruption of RU fuel production is possible. It is possible to achieve this by damaging or destroying two types of infrastructure. First, facilities for catalytic cracking which is essential for high-quality gasoline production (Kstovo plant strike). CC facility can be easily targeted, and RU has few of them (and they are all western, so there is no quick replacement or manufacturer assistance).  As result at the moment Lukoil is unable to repair the damaged CC facility in the Kstovo plant. The second type is the Primary Oil Refinery facility (Krasnodar plant strike). The damage to the POR facility interrupts the entire oil production process, but replacements are simpler to find.
• It's worth noting that only five main fuel plants supply the European part of RU. Other plants are either smaller, older (cannot produce high-quality fuel), or too far away.
• So, the present UKR campaign of oil plant strikes is smart and sensible. It is already causing problems for RU. The average price has already increased by 30-50 kopeeks [RU cents] per liter. 

 

• The Russian government is going to apply significant pressure on oil companies to keep prices from increasing (which may succeed in the near run). However, the RU gasoline market is in a fragile state right now, and if the UKR campaign continues, it will cause major issues.
   

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I have noticed that sea drones tend to have a very odd attack pattern where they never go in straight lines and also attack one-by-one. This video shows drones almost making 90degree turns only a few hundred meters from its target. 

It looks inefficient but it clearly works, does anyone know more?

RU Nats complain that simple machine gunners using unstabilized mounts are the primary defense of RU Navy warships against drones. These gunners have an effective range of a few hundred meters. So, I think drones imitate attacks but halt outside the effective range of Russian machine gunners. When they find an area not covered by MGs, one goes for a kill while the rest of them transmit the results for BDA.

[Offshoot]

EU proposes sanctions on Chinese firms aiding Russian war effort
 

Quote

 

As the EU, the UK and US representatives prepare to meet in Brussels on Wednesday, a source said more tools were needed to ensure Moscow could not get around existing restrictions.

...

As part of the push, the EU’s diplomatic service has proposed adding about 20 firms, including three in mainland China, one in Turkey and one in India to an export blacklist of those providing support to Russia’s military.

 

 

[FancyCat]

Quote

I do not expect Russia to admit the loss of "Cezar Kunikov".  They never acknowledged the sinking of "Ivanovets" just 13 days ago.  After "Novocherkassk", which they did confirm was struck, this is the third Ropucha-class landing ship destroyed in less than 2 months.

 

[Grigb]

A bit of good news from Avdiivka

This night UKR destroyed column of RU reinforcements moving toward the breach

Also, UKR soldier reports

Quote

In addition to the destruction of the pidorsky [homosexual] column, there is good news on Avdos [Avdiivka], but I do not think it is appropriate to speak about it now since the situation is extremely fluid.

[Grigb]

Below is a sketch from RU sources depicting existing supply roads to Avdiivka.

However, UKR say that both roads are less than optimal and partially unsafe to use.

[Grigb]

Deep State and Mashovets reports UKR marines are slowly expanding the bridgehead in Krynky

[The_Capt]

From ISW yesterday.  This really is a firepower war:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024

[Letter from Prague]

If I were Taiwan, I would start building 4 factories for these naval drones this week. They are shockingly effective.

[Grigb]

And now something funny. A couple of days ago we discussed where 3rd could set up the defenses and I made a quick sketch.

I was looking at the videos of 3rd MRAP in action and noticed something familiar. 

 You can see both damaged greenhouse on the left and transmission tower on the right.

Here is the second video

Again, you can see the transmission tower and at 04:00 damaged greenhouse.

Let's look at map

Some thoughts:

• Avtobaza is most likely lost but UKR control industrial area in front of Brevno
• There is no solid frontline. It is just a bunch of small infantry groups running around and UKR are using lone light vehicles with automatic weapons (from MRAP to Bradley) to keep pressure on them. 

[Grigb]

[EDIT] Sorry, it is old report from January. I confused dates.

Regarding Kstov Fuel Plant I wrote about earlier RU reports

Quote

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that restoring the equipment at Lukoil's refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod area, will take at least 1-1.5 months.

Nizhny Novgorod Oil Refinery is one of Russia's largest refineries. According to [Federal Service] Rostechnadzor, an emergency automated protection system was activated on January 4 as a result of a compressor breakdown at the refinery's catalytic cracking facility. On the same day, the [oil refinery] process was halted.

Anatoly Nesmian (RU civilian Girkin) comments

Quote

Minus the Nizhny Novgorod refinery, minus the Tuapse refinery, minus Ust-Luga... A couple more [oil refinary] subtraction - and the fuel crisis in the spring is guaranteed.

 

Edited February 14 by Grigb

[photon]

57 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

If I were Taiwan, I would start building 4 factories for these naval drones this week. They are shockingly effective.

The ability to double tap a particular spot on a ship with torpedoes is absolutely terrifying. What damage control regime could possibly deal with that? None.

The drones don't seem torpedo fast, so I wonder why the Russian ships aren't making better speed and zig-zagging all the time? Oh. Those Ropuchas have a maximum speed of 18 knots. That's not fast.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Regarding fires at RU fuel plants. Below is Milov explanation (from the interview)

• The production of RU fuel began to drop. It has already fallen by 4%, with Lukoil production fallen by 8%. It is a significant drop because the RU fuel market is quite delicate.
• There are two factors here: UKR strikes and a rise in equipment failure due to unknown [to Milov] causes, but most likely due to poor maintenance and repair as a result of sanctions [sanctions work but more slowly than expected]. All of the equipment used to produce high-quality gasoline is Western.
• The RU has just about two dozen fuel plants. Thus, critical disruption of RU fuel production is possible. It is possible to achieve this by damaging or destroying two types of infrastructure. First, facilities for catalytic cracking which is essential for high-quality gasoline production (Kstovo plant strike). CC facility can be easily targeted, and RU has few of them (and they are all western, so there is no quick replacement or manufacturer assistance).  As result at the moment Lukoil is unable to repair the damaged CC facility in the Kstovo plant. The second type is the Primary Oil Refinery facility (Krasnodar plant strike). The damage to the POR facility interrupts the entire oil production process, but replacements are simpler to find.
• It's worth noting that only five main fuel plants supply the European part of RU. Other plants are either smaller, older (cannot produce high-quality fuel), or too far away.
• So, the present UKR campaign of oil plant strikes is smart and sensible. It is already causing problems for RU. The average price has already increased by 30-50 kopeeks [RU cents] per liter. 

 

• The Russian government is going to apply significant pressure on oil companies to keep prices from increasing (which may succeed in the near run). However, the RU gasoline market is in a fragile state right now, and if the UKR campaign continues, it will cause major issues.
   

Do I somehow misread the bar chart? Given the usual intra day price fluctuations for fuel we are seeing over here (easily 5%), the bar chart shows basically equal prices (< 0.5%).

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Do I somehow misread the bar chart? Given the usual intra day price fluctuations for fuel we are seeing over here (easily 5%), the bar chart shows basically equal prices (< 0.5%).

These are most likely end user (gas station) prices. They do not fluctuate that much. 

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Offshoot said:

 In this case it looks like three drones all hit the same spot midship.

Called it! Also how they took out the Ivanovets -  I think that was up to 10 drones involved f and at least 2 hit the same spot. 

No ship at sea can resist being hit repeatedly and quickly in the same exact hull section. Not guaranteed to sink but very guaranteed to lose mobility, which is death in a swarming attack.

Even a carrier would feel the effects and anything quick and serious enough to hit that would do an enormous amount of damage with compounding kinetic energy, especially I suspect, on the second hit. 

Some Observations:

It's a very gentle sea state 1,

With clear weather and clear of the coast. The mad bounce of the drones is a reflection of their speed rather than the waves. 

(The image above is very nicely accurate to the drone v ropucha size comparisons) . 

Despite the loss of previous lone ships, including a missile corvette (!)  the Kunnikov was not escorted. No search lights, very little point defense and no air cover. 

Why was it alone? Why has the BSF not yet enacted convoy-ing? Why does such a large an important vessel have no air cover on call? Why is the AVFR not immediately strafing? The ship wasnt far from shore, easily within coverage range for extended overwatch. Doesn't have to be this ship in particular, just an area/corridor with attached air assets. 

There have been exercises against drones that developed effective counter-tactics. Improved point defense and observation for sure, but also travelling at least in pairs, using organic air assets (if you dont have a helo then a ship you're with should have one (ideally 2) and also launching small boat counter attacks. There is a serious concern with the last about confliction (point defense on the ship could hit your own boats) but that is still solvable with good fire command and training.

Any one of these would have impeded the attack and stacked together would have seriously degraded the chances of success.

There's a LOT the Russians could have done with the assets and existing tech they have that would have been vastly more effective than just sailing a non-upgraded HVT unescorted in open waters and clear weather through a war zone with a previously successful known enemy attack tactics. 

Edited February 14 by Kinophile

[TheVulture]

9 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Called it! Also how they took out the Ivanovets -  I think that was up to 10 drones involved f and at least 2 hit the same spot. 

No ship at sea can resist being hit repeatedly and quickly in the same exact hull section. Not guaranteed to sink but very guaranteed to lose mobility, which 8s death in a swarming attack. 

 

Yes, both videos clearly have at least a second drone hitting precisely on the area badly damaged by the first hit, and causing big explosions (the second drone is pretty much going to be inside the armour when it triggers).

That they've done it successfully two attacks in a row implies that it's something that can be pulled off now with a reasonable degree of confidence with the people and equipment they have.  That really does seem like a game changer for naval warfare in near-coastal regions (might be harder to pull off in the mid pacific).

The race is on to find an effective counter. 

[Grigb]

Regarding RU losses at Avdiivka. Here is RU video of two RU soldiers checking RU position. At 03:16 one of them says: "From 4000 men, brigade, only 30% remained" 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Yes, both videos clearly have at least a second drone hitting precisely on the area badly damaged by the first hit, and causing big explosions (the second drone is pretty much going to be inside the armour when it triggers).

That they've done it successfully two attacks in a row implies that it's something that can be pulled off now with a reasonable degree of confidence with the people and equipment they have.  That really does seem like a game changer for naval warfare in near-coastal regions (might be harder to pull off in the mid pacific).

The race is on to find an effective counter. 

This war is highlighting something that should not be a surprise - a serious challenge to the western way of war.  We went the way of ever more complex (and expensive) platforms, and this was in all domains.  We ended up with fewer, larger and very high expense density capabilities that were capable of over-match and deterrence.

Problem is that everyone else saw this and started working on offsets - swarms, unmanned etc.  All cheap and mass producible.  So now an industrial complex that has been focused on big, expensive and few, has to design counters for small, many and cheap - this outta be just great.