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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Probably a hint one famous unit on the way to the battle for Avdiivka. 

Very soon a big surprise expects for pidars on one of hotest points. I think, there will be alot of videos with "200th good Russians", to be precise I know that it will be. I don't know either will it change cardinally something or not, but a..ses of rusnia will in flame literally.

So, if this true, political decision is fight for Avdiivka until last opportunity.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Russians reportedly dropped yesterday on Avdiivka and around 84 gliding bombs. As if Russian commanders got the order to put a flag on the coke plant not later than Monday. Also by unconfirmed yet info, they siginficantly recuced attacks on southern flank of Bakhmut,  taking part of troops from there to Avdiivka. 

 

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Several days ago UKR social media shared scandal video, where servicemen of Dnipro city special purpose police regiment (former riot police "Berkut") rejected to execute an order, transferring them to National Police brigade "Liut' " ("Rage")

Moreover, personnel of the regiment became to speak typical pro-Russian stamps and insult the chief deputy of Dnipro police directorate, who came to them with the order, naming him "Maidan scum". Policemen cried "You have no right to dispose our lives!", "The law doesn't say we have to go at the war!", "We reject to execute this criminal order", We paid our debt to our state, when we defended it on Maidan under Molotov coctails!", "You can go at the war yourself!"

Acording to the law any force structure during martial law is a part of Defense Forces and have to execute orders as well participate in combat if this need. 

The video caused the tsunamy of the hate - police, like courts and prosecutors considered by Ukranian society as more corrupted structures, which defends not a law, but thoise who have a money.  By the way many servicemen in these special purpose police units (from 50-70 in the company to about 250-300 in regiment) are former "Berkut" servicemen, which were restored by court in service with support of former minister of internal affairs Arsen Avakov. Most of these units continue to be a carriers of anti-Maidan moods. Also there are many conflicts between them and AFU servicemen on checkpoints in the rear. You can see on the photo - the servicemen are very tough bulls, not 50 y.o. tired riflemen in trenches. They in perfect physical conditions, but for them easily to show own strenght and power defending interersts of corrupted system and to chase granmas, trading apples near transport stops, than go at the war. Many of them consider themselves as untouched caste and many of new guys, who came to these units quicly become the same dumb buffalos. So, society returns them the same hate, like in 2014.   

Despite many policemen and retired policemen enlisted to volunteer police battalions and regimnets, which in 2023 were united in "Liut' " assault brigade, police have a reservation from sending to frontline to AFU. But they can be transferred to this brigade, subordinated to National Police.

Today leadership of National Police issued a reaction - Dnipro special purpose police regiment will be disbanded. All staff wiil be moved to "Liut' " brigade. Who will reject to transfer will be fired from police service and will receive mobilization summon to AFU. Let see how this ends. Many people believe these pro-Russian scum just will pay money to military medical commitee in order they "found" many deceases and recognized them unfit for service

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Edited by Haiduk
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Thanks for all the updates, Haiduk.

As expected, Avdiivka was always Russia's choice to take, not Ukraine's ability to keep.  It became clear after the first few unsuccessful attacks that Russia decided to take Avdiivka no matter the cost.  Similar to Bakhmut.  So it is not a surprise that the fall of Avdiivka may be completed very soon.

The exhaustion of frontline forces appears to be reaching a critical point where even defense is at risk.  It seems inevitable that some form of large scale mobilization is necessary.  Not the 500k that Zaluzhnyi advocated for, but it needs to be more than a few 10s of thousands.  Fortunately, it is probable that Ukraine can do it in phases instead of all at once.

The shortage of artillery munitions is obviously the second biggest problem that needs to be solved.  Even more so than the military leadership issues, which of course just became pushed into the open with the departure of Zaluzhnyi.

These are big challenges for Ukraine.  Fortunately, Russia has similar ones which might even be worse in some ways.  Otherwise the war would be over.

We're still in a waiting game to see which side breaks first rather than which side crushes the other.

Steve

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5 hours ago, Holien said:

Nadezhdin use for us is an indication of the problems Putler is facing.

He was never going to win, but he was needed to make a sham election "look" like an election. 

The fact he has been pulled speaks volumes about Moscows lack of control of the sham.

 

This is a misunderstanding of russia.

He was pulled *exactly* because everyone should see that putin is the big dog who can make people dissapear in foreign countries, remove them from ballots, or drop them out of windows. There was and is never any attempt at being subtle when you suicide reporters with several shots to the back of the head.

Making it fail because not reaching pathetic number of signatures just to drive home the point

Edited by Kraft
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2 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Again a misunderstanding of russia.

He was pulled *exactly* because everyone should see that putin is the big dog who can make people dissapear in foreign countries, remove them from ballots, or drop them out of windows. There was and is never any attempt at being subtle when you suicide reporters with several shots to the back of the head.

I agree with this. It's a "what the **** are you going to do about it" flex. That said, Putin is clearly being very careful about challenges to his rule. 

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Prepare yourselves for a lot of coverage of this event that will resemble the "Just send <insert deus ex machina weapons system here> and we will win the war!!!!!" takes. There is far too much emphasis on individuals, isolated policies in the way in which the media understands this war. A new direction is clearly needed and Zaluzhny is out. That's how systems work. 

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-commander-in-chief-zaluzhnyi/

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I dont think Zaluzhny needed out, he clearly understood the reality of the situation and what needs to be done to change it.

Without being given the necessary capabilities there is no way to even judge performance. 

I think there will be less of a concern for casulties going forward, which I completely disagree with.

Edited by Kraft
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15 minutes ago, Kraft said:

This is a misunderstanding of russia.

He was pulled *exactly* because everyone should see that putin is the big dog who can make people dissapear in foreign countries, remove them from ballots, or drop them out of windows. There was and is never any attempt at being subtle when

Sorry I disagree, Putin wants a veneer of an election where he wins comfortably. 

Yes sure he can waft his bigus dickus with a raft of mafia like measures but for the election he needs to be seen as winning.

He needs battlefield victory hence the current pressure on military meaningless bits of Ukrainian soil.

Removing a candidate that was allowed to stand indicates further weakness.

If Putin felt strong he would declare himself the ultimate ruler and dispense with the sham but for some reason he needs an election victory.

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I see this as Ukraine restructuring and adopting. That is clearly needed in the light of the last years events.

Change is best done by changing the people on the top. In commercial sector and militaries. In addition in democracy the elected officials cannot be changed outside elections.

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1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I see this as Ukraine restructuring and adopting. That is clearly needed in the light of the last years events.

Change is best done by changing the people on the top. In commercial sector and militaries. In addition in democracy the elected officials cannot be changed outside elections.

Exactly. And if Zelensky wasn't absolutely sure that Zaluzhny believed in the direction they've chosen then it was incumbent on him to make a change. Systemic success starts first with belief. 

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50 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I dont think Zaluzhny needed out, he clearly understood the reality of the situation and what needs to be done to change it.

Without being given the necessary capabilities there is no way to even judge performance. 

I think there will be less of a concern for casulties going forward, which I completely disagree with.

Sometimes a change at the top is needed. Mark Clark removed John Lucas from VI Corps command at Anzio even though Lucas arguably saved the beachhead from destruction by not overreaching with his relatively meager forces. However, it took Lucien Truscott to actually effect the breakout. 

Now, I'm not saying that this new guy is suddenly gonna have the keys to success but sometimes a new perspective is needed. 

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7 minutes ago, poesel said:

Who in the US needs to sign off on arms purchases from NATO partners, and who sets the price? Is there a loophole for delivering arms to Ukraine?

I have wondered for some time about the price setting in particular. I really think Biden could start selling Ukraine 155 shells for a dollar a piece if was willing to live with the Republicans in Congress losing their minds. It is about time to consider such measures.

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Quote

The Senate voted 67-32 to advance a legislative vehicle that Schumer says will be used to carry funding for Ukraine, Israel, Indo-Pacific security and humanitarian assistance for civilians around the world.

Seventeen Republican senators voted to advance the legislation, including Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Senate GOP Whip John Thune (S.D.). 

Other Republicans who voted yes were Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), John Cassidy (La.), Susan Collins (Maine), John Cornyn (Texas), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Chuck Grassley (Iowa), John Kennedy (La.), Jerry Moran (Kan.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mitt Romney (Utah), Mike Rounds (S.D.), Dan Sullivan (Alaska), Thom Tillis (N.C.), Roger Wicker (Miss.) and Todd Young (Ind.). 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt. ) voted against it.

 

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Just now, cesmonkey said:

 

 

Well that is the best news in weeks, McConnell had one push left in him apparently. To give Biden and Schumer credit where credit is due, hoping to get this done is why they have not already tried to go to completely irregular channels for getting stuff to Ukraine. Because once they start there is no going back, probably.

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Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

Loong road ahead for that bill. More senate votes coming and the real hard one is going to be the congress

Sufficient unto the day, tomorrow they have to wake up and push the next step. I didn't think Schumer and McConnell could get this vote done, but now that they have I think the odds of getting out of the Senate are pretty good. The House....not sure they could name a post office at the moment, but it would literally only take three Republicans growing a spine to get this done.

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@adam_kinzinger/post/C3EMCUxRgwl

Here is the one way to guarantee #Ukraine aid is put on the floor of the house for a vote, only need 3 or 4 people to do this. Historic moment requiring historic courage

 

He explains further in a video.

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