The_MonkeyKing Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/on-the-brink-examining-ammo-shortages?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1565454&post_id=141397066&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=22ez99&utm_medium=email "For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them." "As Russian forces persist in pressuring Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, it is becoming evident that the fall of Avdiivka is not a matter of if, but when. " "The suggested plan for Ukraine in 2024 is to dig in and construct fortifications to minimize territorial and human losses. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only viable, albeit "forced," plan for Ukraine in 2024 unless substantial foreign aid is received and radical mobilization measures are implemented. While this plan is logical, it is not an ideal option." "The problem of adequately staffing military units has existed for a long period. Most individuals have been engaged in combat for nearly two years, undergoing rare and non-systematic, short rotations that are insufficient for a full restoration of their physical and, more importantly, mental well-being." "Although Ukraine urgently needs mobilization efforts to not only replace hundreds of thousands of individuals engaged in combat but also to establish new offensive capabilities, multiple problems are undermining these efforts that many media outlets and analysts prefer to avoid discussing." "The reputation of certain Ukrainian generals has plummeted to the point where they are now likened to Russian counterparts known for deploying careless frontal assaults. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of accountability for such failures or misguided approaches." "Our team has been informed about escalating tension between the Presidential office and the Commander-in-Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, for over a year, although it has only recently come to public attention." 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) 16 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/on-the-brink-examining-ammo-shortages?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1565454&post_id=141397066&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=22ez99&utm_medium=email "For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them." Seems all pretty accurate. The best thing Ukraine can do is dig in, minimize their own losses, maximize Russian losses, only take offensive actions when an opportunity presents itself, stabilize the country internally, mobilize the civilian economy to support the military with goods and supplies (as seems to be finally the case with the drone productions springing up all over), mobilize military personnel to create reserves and make rotations possible, keep their heads above water with foreign aid, and continue to degrade the Russian industry with strategic long-range bombing and sabotage and pin-point killings. Make Ukraine the new graveyard of empire. Edited February 8 by Carolus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Here are the latest episodes of "The Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman" (paywall) A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, part 1&2 Mike sat down with his two co-authors, Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The three discussed their recent War on the Rocks article, "Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine's Advantage in 2024," which was published on Jan. 26, 2024. the article: https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/ A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, Part 2.mp3 A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, Part 1.mp3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) The total transparency the battle space is a real shame. It makes it almost impossible to perform ambushes and maneuvers on a larger scale. Without that visibility, the RA could certianly be enticed into new spearhead or thunder run attacks if the UA gave ground and allowed them to penetrate deeper - only to annihilate them again with light infantry and artillery from all sides. I don't think RA losses mounted ever as quickly again as during the first weeks of the war. Russian officers are just very reliable at not learning their lesson. But even without total transparency which could make this feasible, the internal and external reaction to it might be too costly. The retreat would have to look real to everyone, after all. Edited February 8 by Carolus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Russian Army gets satellite internet. Potentially significant. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 With the US aid deadlock continuing European countries must start funding US arms for Ukraine. It is surprising to me this is not already happening. European countries are moaning about insuffient production capasity and empty stockpiles... How about purchasing the weapons from where there are plenty (USA, Asia...)? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tux Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Nadezhdin’s out, although there’s something wonky about the numbers being reported: “Refusing to give up, Mr Nadezhdin said on social media that he would challenge the decision in Russia's Supreme Court. "I collected more than 200,000 signatures across Russia. We conducted the collection openly and honestly." The Central Election Commission said that more than 9,000 signatures submitted by Mr Nadezhdin were invalid. That left 95,587 names, meaning he was just short of the 100,000 required signatures to register as a candidate, commission member Andrei Shutov said.” I don’t know whether to be encouraged based on the assumption he’s been rejected because the government think he’s too popular, or discouraged that he only managed to get c.200k signatures in the first place. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) This is very sad, but looks like Avdiivka battle comes to the end and, alas, not in our favor (not counting about two divisional vehicle sets, which Russians lost here). During last three days Russians captured quarry area on the NE of the town and gained foothold in dachas and first streets of northern part of Avdiivka. Yesterday they broke through overpass bridge in front of coke plant. Also reportedly for last two days Russians dropped on Avdiivka about week amout of gliding bombs. 110th mech.brigade, defending the town itself is completely exhausted, drone operators almost don't sleep by days - FPV attacks and Mavicks maintaining resistance in conditions of artillery shells shortage. But bad weather in last days limited their flights and this immediately gave opportunity to the enemy, having overhelming advantage in manpower. Russians continuously replenish own troops with fresh meat, they go forward, die and next meat come behind of them, death conveyor is working, but Russians achive own goals in this way. Our artillery near Avdiivka keep almost full silence already four days - no shells. So 110th brigade command moved to positions as riflemen almost all rear services soldiers, because no more opportunity except FPVs and contact clashes to hold this horde. But not only ammunition shortage led to this situation. - OTUV "Tavria" command (gen.Tarnavskyi) again repeated all mistakes of Bakhmut defense. Expecting that Russians will assault stronpoints (like factories in Bakhmut and coke plant in Avdiivka) directly, when they use enough flexible tactic and after first fails attacked on flanks, made many bogus small assaults to confuse about real attack directions - passivity of OTUV "Tavria" comamnd, as far as before October, when Russians recently captured Krasnohorivka and began to fill this northern "balcony" above Avdiivka with troops. - no reserve fortifications on flanks of Avdiivka. Only when Russians crossed railways, we started to establish some positions, but in conditions of unstable weather when frosts change themeselves with rains and mud it was belated idea - manpower lack and fatigue. 110th brigade two years fights in this place and never was rotated for rest in full composition. Other units, who were moved here from Zaporizhzhia front also weren't rested and replenished after summer clashes, when Russians continously were replenishing own units. - weak air defense capabilities. For whole Avdiivka battle Russians lost only one aircraft. The map of northern part of Avdiivka for 5-6th of Feb. Avdiivka is on 90 % is private 1-2 storey cottages, only on the south east from coke plant there is small "Khimic" ("Chemestrian") micro-district with multistorey urban type buildings for coke plant employees. These are so-called "Old Avdiivka" and "New Avdiivka" Edited February 8 by Haiduk 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said: With the US aid deadlock continuing European countries must start funding US arms for Ukraine. It is surprising to me this is not already happening. European countries are moaning about insuffient production capasity and empty stockpiles... How about purchasing the weapons from where there are plenty (USA, Asia...)? What message politically does that send the US? If you won't supply Ukraine to defend your own national interests, we'll reward you by paying you billions of dollars and do it for you? Defending Ukraine is in Europe's interests too of course, which is why they are spending money on it. But for things like artillery shells it is better to invest the money in their own production capacity, not throwing it at the US as a temporary solution and ignoring the long term one. Particularly true if the US is going to become an unreliable ally that is going to abandon allies because of internal ideological politics. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Tux said: Nadezhdin’s out, although there’s something wonky about the numbers being reported: “Refusing to give up, Mr Nadezhdin said on social media that he would challenge the decision in Russia's Supreme Court. "I collected more than 200,000 signatures across Russia. We conducted the collection openly and honestly." The Central Election Commission said that more than 9,000 signatures submitted by Mr Nadezhdin were invalid. That left 95,587 names, meaning he was just short of the 100,000 required signatures to register as a candidate, commission member Andrei Shutov said.” I don’t know whether to be encouraged based on the assumption he’s been rejected because the government think he’s too popular, or discouraged that he only managed to get c.200k signatures in the first place. For us is just two sorts of sh...t Nadezdin: "Russia will not lost SMO. I will not give the comamnd to withdraw without reconcilement of peact treaty. If there is a peace treaty - let we will discuss it. If there is no peace treaty - we will not withdraw, we will dig in on that place, which we hols ad will wait peace treaty" All difference between "liberal" Nadezhdin and "dictator" Putin is Nadezdin doesn't want furher continuing of the war and conquering of full Ukraine. But he is for Russia must save in own composition already occupied territories and Ukraine have to accept this for the sake of peace. Else Russia will fight, not advancing, but defending own territories by all means. Also Nadezhdin categorically against any reparations from Russia side to Ukraine. Edited February 8 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 19 minutes ago, TheVulture said: What message politically does that send the US? If you won't supply Ukraine to defend your own national interests, we'll reward you by paying you billions of dollars and do it for you? Defending Ukraine is in Europe's interests too of course, which is why they are spending money on it. But for things like artillery shells it is better to invest the money in their own production capacity, not throwing it at the US as a temporary solution and ignoring the long term one. Particularly true if the US is going to become an unreliable ally that is going to abandon allies because of internal ideological politics. There are some key systems that are only available from the USA. Some of these are: HIMARS/M270 munitions, Patrioit intercepters, AMRAAM/AIM-9(airToAir&GroundToAir) ... Even if Europe made the decisions to invest in own production it could take a decade and would in many cases make very little sense. Of course it is important for Europe to raise its production capacity and it is already doing it, but there is the transitional period with the long "lead times" and some systems will never be made in Europe. Lets make the hypothetical example that Europe had weapons available 5% of Ukraines needs and USA had 1000% available of Ukraines needs. Would it not make sense for the weapons come from the USA with cost split fairly between Europe and the USA? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Nadezhdin use for us is an indication of the problems Putler is facing. He was never going to win, but he was needed to make a sham election "look" like an election. The fact he has been pulled speaks volumes about Moscows lack of control of the sham. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Carolus said: But even without total transparency which could make this feasible, the internal and external reaction to it might be too costly. The retreat would have to look real to everyone, after all. And with the defence/denial domination, the other presumption of mobile defence is also weakened - you cannot count on getting back the land you retreated from. For the Ukrainians, in the time period between the Kherson counteroffensive and today most of the tactical retreats have turned into permanent loss of land. The Russians have a better record of recovering lost ground but only because they are willing to waste an infantry brigade conquering a small village. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Carolus said: Russian officers are just very reliable at not learning their lesson. I think there is more than enough evidence that Russian officers do learn. I mean, just read @Haiduk s latest posts. Since we all like our historical comparisons, this is like WW1. In the first half year or so casualties were enormous because neither side knew how to deal with the new battlefield realities. Both sides continued to feed bodies into the meet grinders with frontal assaults afterwards. That doesn't mean they didn't learn but that it took time to learn the lessons and to find solutions - and how to deal with what lessons the other side learned. Sure, Russian officers don't seem to be the most... intellectually flexible type but evidently they do learn. Question is, do they lean fast enough to complete with Ukraine (who apparently have difficulties of there own) As @The_Capt keeps telling us this is about which side leans faster, institutionalizes it and manages to convert those lessons into advantages on the battlefield. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: Would it not make sense for the weapons come from the USA with cost split fairly between Europe and the USA? Yep, the one good thing coming out of the current T mess in America is that Europe seems to be stepping up and in the short term until Europe has internal production sorted America will gain more sales. It would be good if deals on key ammunition could be done at cost plus small % profit. Ukraine needs to keep Russia at bay and we (Europe) have to provide them with at a minimum the ammunition to do so. Even if that means spending money in America. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) Usually I ignore most of articles in WP/ NT about Ukraine, because many of them had been written by authors, who worked in Russia or had any relations with Russia and this is not journalistic, but sort of influence on public opinion and to sow scepticism. But this is article, despite had been written by "anonimous sources among UKR battalion and company commanders" (if I see "anononimous source", this is 50/50 BS) in whole reflects probably more significant problem, than artillery sjells shortage - the crictical lack of pesonnel in "line units" - those who hold positions and should go forward. Problems with mobilisation and failed information policy of the state in this sector led to army receive too few replenishment. And many of infantry, who come from Ukrainian tarining centers have very weak training. (My addition - existing 151st training center, established by volunteers and saved in endless wars with old soviet dumbs top brass from GS anD MoD gives very food training, but can't reterain more that 2-3 batatlions for one cycle) In conditions, when units have 30-40 % of personnel, which have no normal rest, we can't think about any offensives, And if this not be solved in short perspective, this with addition of probable US aid termination can lead to very bad consequences https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/ Edited February 8 by Haiduk 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Our Su-25 was shot down yesterday, the pilot Vladislav Rykov has died 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Yesterday revenge strike of UKR MLRS on Belgorod. Reportedly local reinforced concrete structures factory was hit and vitamins factory. Probably some power supply object was hit, because central part of the city turned out without electricity for some time 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Russian TG reports that 13 engineers desappeared after yesterday "nuke" accident in Izhevsk on the plant, producing startegic missiles. Allegedly some test works were planned on test site in 5 km from the city, but something went wrong... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) GUR performed cyber attack on servers of Russian "Companion" software for drones flight control. As a result operators can't get acces to the servers. "Companion" software uses for upgrading firmware of drones (any new Mavick or Autel, coming to troops - both UKR and RUS gets new firmware, to not show position of launch), also this software allows to set up control panels or fly drones via PC, not control panels, and more useful usage of this soft - video and photo caturing and it transmitting through comm lines to HQs Edited February 8 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) The article of Defense Express (in English) about disassembling of newest jet Shahed-238, which was shot down recently https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/jet_driven_shahed_238_disassembled_engine_from_chechia_satellite_navigation_tools_from_canada_photo-9437.html Short list of parts and country manufacturers (detailed with photos in the article): Engine TJ150 - BPS "Velka Bites" (Czech Republic) SAT navigation signal receiver TW4721- Tallysman (Canada) SAT Nav signal processing - the board with USA chips from Intel, Analog Devices and NXP USA Inc. Inertial navigation - STM Microelectronic (Switzerland) and Analog Devices (USA) Flight control board - Texas Instruments (USA) Edited February 8 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Typical dirt road in winter Ukraine... Yesterday we had +10, today +1 and snow with rain. Only tracked vehicles will survive! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) This woman is an angel, who help to defend Avdiivka. She is a citizen of this town. She supplies FPV drones, anti-drone EW and many other stuff for guys who defend this town. Her crowdfunding campaignns already brought hundreds of drones to defenders. But with lack of shells and under endless enemy attacks the need in FPVs, thermal sights, EW, drone detectors are huge. If anybody wants to help Avdiivka defense - you can donate to her. Her goal for next batch of drones, EW and sights is 100 000 $ PayPal: yana.statna21@gmail.com Edited February 8 by Haiduk 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) "Fat drone" with something powerful blows up Russian position in ruines of the buildng. Operator says "mr. Serhiy (Sternenko), thank you, we received your uranium ammunition, already use it" Edited February 8 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-and-sweden-agree-on-a-new-batch-of-cv90-infantry-fighting-vehicles/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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