Holien Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I presume Russia moving Ukrainian POWs would use buses or trains to get to a land border crossing point not expensive planes? This smells of Russian BS as usual. Anyone know about the previous swaps and how they took place? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Russia said something, therefore it must not be true. Aside from that generally sound approach to assessing Russian official information, let's keep in mind that as of yet Ukraine has not shot down a single transport aircraft this entire war. Not one. And now they supposedly deliberately targeted AND hit one AND it had their own people on it? Yeah, I don't think so. I'm not even sure Russia would have Ukrainian POWs in one of their precious transport planes at all. Busses would be more like it, IMHO. Russia might have done this as a false flag operation or Ukraine did shoot down a plane (carrying Iranian stuff) and Russia decided to try and make lemonade out of a pile of poop. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c3k Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 What an easy way for Russia to "erase" some Ukrainian POWs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Russia might have done this as a false flag operation or Ukraine did shoot down a plane (carrying Iranian stuff) and Russia decided to try and make lemonade out of a pile of poop. Steve While approach to Russian propaganda is reasonable, this time I think false flag option is not even remotely plausible. Il-76 is valuable military asset they are short of; if they want to stage an accident in order to hide murdered POW's they have dozens different ways (at this point they don't care about them anyway to even hide such fact). Also military aircraft as potentiall "negative MH370" to show West perfidy is very weak explanation; they would use civilian airliner for it. Thus we are here with 3 plausible causes: 1.Something accidently blow off on the board, regardless if indeed Ukrianian prisoners were there or not. 2. Somebody in Russian air defence made mistake- rather unlikely, it's close to Belgorod airport and big, slow moving transport has very different signal and look than fastmovers that could potentially come from Ukraine. 3. Indeed Ukrainian work, by longe range AA asset or somebody with Manpad. 3rd seems most logical as for now. The question regarding Ukrianian prisoners seems murky now, and if they indeed were there, officials from AFU responsible for mission will likely prefer to keep it quiet, as question of prisoners seems rather touchy in Ukrainian society now. It's also not impossible it has nothing to do with any swap and Russians simply routinely carry dozen or so POW in their planes as hostages; that would fit them frankly. Simple solution to several problems at once. Edited January 24 by Beleg85 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/24/orban-reaffirms-backing-for-swedish-nato-bid-as-allies-patience-runs-low Well Gripens are hopefully coming to Ukraine soon. After that very shameful delay for almost 2 years by Hungary and Turkey 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Supposedly the Russian list of passengers with Ukrainian PoWs is faked. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Carolus said: Supposedly the Russian list of passengers with Ukrainian PoWs is faked. I'm surprised Russia has not claimed that the Il-76 the Ukrainians shot down was full of puppies. But seriously, I know we should stay objective and look at all the facts but even if what Russia is saying is true which I really doubt. Russian officials are like the boy who cried wolf at this point, between CIA funded biolabs creating supersoldiers, British PMCs selling children to the Coca-Cola company and Ukrainians creating an ecological catastrophe in their own country by destroying the Kakhovka Dam. Frankly I just don't believe a damn word they say at this point, when they make claims like this. EDIT: Footage appears reportedly showing the crash site. Edited January 24 by Harmon Rabb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 22 hours ago, Holien said: This attack on the 13th how do we know of the ones that got through did they not hit military valid targets? I doubt anybody in Ukraine will say about attacked military targets. What is known from twitter and TG discussions, most of missiles aimed machine-building industrial facilities. I posted a photo of two Kinzhal warheads, destroyed by our sappers - obviously these missiles had to hit Kropyvnytskyi airfield. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, Beleg85 said: While approach to Russian propaganda is reasonable, this time I think false flag option is not even remotely plausible. Il-76 is valuable military asset they are short of; if they want to stage an accident in order to hide murdered POW's they have dozens different ways (at this point they don't care about them anyway to even hide such fact). Also military aircraft as potentiall "negative MH370" to show West perfidy is very weak explanation; they would use civilian airliner for it. Thus we are here with 3 plausible causes: 1.Something accidently blow off on the board, regardless if indeed Ukrianian prisoners were there or not. 2. Somebody in Russian air defence made mistake- rather unlikely, it's close to Belgorod airport and big, slow moving transport has very different signal and look than fastmovers that could potentially come from Ukraine. 3. Indeed Ukrainian work, by longe range AA asset or somebody with Manpad. 3rd seems most logical as for now. The question regarding Ukrianian prisoners seems murky now, and if they indeed were there, officials from AFU responsible for mission will likely prefer to keep it quiet, as question of prisoners seems rather touchy in Ukrainian society now. It's also not impossible it has nothing to do with any swap and Russians simply routinely carry dozen or so POW in their planes as hostages; that would fit them frankly. Simple solution to several problems at once. Oh, I don't think it was a false flag operation in the truest sense. It's a coverup for something they don't want people to know the truth about, but can't cover up the basic fact that a plane was shot down. That said, I will remind everybody that in 2022 at some point the Russians deliberately murdered a bunch of Ukrainian POWs in a building and then tried to make it seem that HIMARS (or artillery, I forget which) hit the building. The exact chain of events is of course unknown, but the theory at the time was they were murdered because someone was skimming the supplies for the POWs and was about to be found out so they killed/burned the evidence. The MoD was happy to go along with a cover story. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This incident highlights that up until now Ukraine has not been attacking transport aircraft by choice. I mean seriously, who here doubts Ukraine's ability to bring down transport aircraft if it really wanted to? It would be far easier than sneaking into secured military bases and putting explosives on planes or arranging for a truck bomb to blow up the Kerch bridge. I've not thought of this before, but now I am. Why hasn't Ukraine been targeting military transport planes? Is it because there's some secret agreement with Russia? You don't shoot down ours, we won't shoot down yours? We have hostages on all flights so don't think about it? It has to be something like this, don't you think? Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This incident highlights that up until now Ukraine has not been attacking transport aircraft by choice. I mean seriously, who here doubts Ukraine's ability to bring down transport aircraft if it really wanted to? It would be far easier than sneaking into secured military bases and putting explosives on planes or arranging for a truck bomb to blow up the Kerch bridge. I've not thought of this before, but now I am. Why hasn't Ukraine been targeting military transport planes? Is it because there's some secret agreement with Russia? You don't shoot down ours, we won't shoot down yours? We have hostages on all flights so don't think about it? It has to be something like this, don't you think? Steve I was just thinking the reason would be that the Russian's aren't dumb enough to fly transport planes close enough to Ukraine. But now that I think about it, that can't possibly be the explanation 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) Quote The German MoD has raised its prediction for the German deliveries of 155 mm artillery ammunition to #Ukraine. More than 230,000 shells will be delivered this year (previous figure was 200,000 shells). With more than 80 Leopard 1 A5 and 450 protected vehicles, precise figures were also given for these systems. Das ist gut. Edited January 24 by Harmon Rabb 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think 70km the other side of Belgorod means this is either some very ballsy SF with MANPADS or- more likely- the kind of SAM raid we've already seen a few times. Roll a Patriot further forward than normal, light up a juicy target, bug out. Just an exercise in extending threat into areas the Russians think are safe. Last week it was a Mainstay, this week it was Il-76. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This incident highlights that up until now Ukraine has not been attacking transport aircraft by choice. I mean seriously, who here doubts Ukraine's ability to bring down transport aircraft if it really wanted to? It would be far easier than sneaking into secured military bases and putting explosives on planes or arranging for a truck bomb to blow up the Kerch bridge. I've not thought of this before, but now I am. Why hasn't Ukraine been targeting military transport planes? Is it because there's some secret agreement with Russia? You don't shoot down ours, we won't shoot down yours? We have hostages on all flights so don't think about it? It has to be something like this, don't you think? Steve Just out of curiosity does anyone know how far clear of the war zone all/most most airlines are steering? Ukraine may have been avoiding shooting at anything resembling a transport plane out of an abundance of caution. And then they got solid intel on a target to good to pass on... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) I was some busy, so here is statistic of last missile strike: 41 missiles were launched, 21 were intercepted. Part of rest 20 missiles didn't reach own targets, due to manufacturing defects and EW work. Kyiv was attacked with 20 missiles (not clarified by types) Missile types: - 15 Kh-101 (15 shot down) - 4 S-300 (0) - 12 Iskander-M (5 - probably all five were destroyed over Kyiv) - 8 Kh-22 missiles (0) - 2 Kh-59 (1) Again we can see: 41 % were cruise/AS misisles and here we have 94 % of interceptions 39 % are ballistic missiles and SAM misiles for ballistic fire and here we have 31 % of total interceptions and 90-100 % of interceptions over places, defended with modern SAM systems like PAC-3 or SAMP-T 19 % of supersonic (close to hypersonic) cruise missiles - no interceptions, but they were launched on the areas didn't protected by Patriots/SAMP-T What about probable targets. Look at Kharkiv. Total 15 missiles hit the city - 2 S-300, at least 6-7 Kh-22, not less 5 Iskanders. 10 citizenens were killed, about 70 wounded. Two more S-200 hit Balakliya city of Kharkiv oblast. On the video likely Kh-22 impact in Kharkiv in residental area. One more missile ruined a part of residental building A school was hit (Russians seriuosly think in the city close to the border any public building contains dozens of deployed UKR soldiers) Close impact of missile seriously damaged other residental building Citizens also wrote about impacts in industrial areas. Gas pipe was damaged, causing a big fire and power facility, which temporary cut off from electricity abou half of the city And Russian media: cadres of missile strike aftermath on Kharkiv. The AFU objects masked as residental buildings are destroyed On more Russian Kh-22 missiles probably struck Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk oblast and Shostka in Sumy oblast, these cities have military factories. Results is unknown, but in Pavlohrad seriously damaged two schools and eight multistorey buildings, at least 2 citizens were killed What in Kyiv? Likely only one missile reach own target. Russians victoriously defeated sport hall "Locomotive", belonging to "Ukrainain railroads" state company. One warhead of shot down missile hit residental building and... didn't explode. Sappers later took warhead out of the flat One missile obviosly tarheted buildng of MoD, but was shot down in 1 km, fragments fell down on avenue, so the traffic was closed for some time. Total in this strike 18 civilains were killed and 130 wounded. Edited January 24 by Haiduk 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 UKR mobile group shot down cruise missile with HMG Browning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 37 minutes ago, dan/california said: Just out of curiosity does anyone know how far clear of the war zone all/most most airlines are steering? Ukraine may have been avoiding shooting at anything resembling a transport plane out of an abundance of caution. And then they got solid intel on a target to good to pass on... Russian passenger flights have been staying on routes at or to the east of the Volgogrod/Tambov line. They swerve a little farther east when something happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) 6 hours ago, Holien said: I presume Russia moving Ukrainian POWs would use buses or trains to get to a land border crossing point not expensive planes? Our former POWs told today Russians really sometime used tarnsport aviation for captives moving. BUT. For group in 50 captives were 20 MP servicemen and 3 of escorting persons from Army. So, Russian claims about 3 guardmen for 63 captives is BS. This video posted above, shows large holes in the plane remains - so this was SAM work, not MANPAD. Also other video shows only two corpses on the field, no any signs of ground litterd by multiple bodies UKR General Staff claimed this was UKR AD work Edited January 24 by Haiduk 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, dan/california said: This is the same Bradley, who took out Russian T-90M. In longer version of this video the same commander, who used War Thunder skills in that battle said "today we weren't so lucky, alas" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Longer video of IL-76 crash. At the end of video camera films missile explosion cloud in the sky 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Watching a video about how FPV drones are now mass-produced in their tens of thousands using 3D printing, how long before we see a head of state assassinated this way? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: Watching a video about how FPV drones are now mass-produced in their tens of thousands using 3D printing, how long before we see a head of state assassinated this way? That thought has occurred to me as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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