dan/california Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 17 hours ago, Bulletpoint said: By now, we all began thinking FPV drones are amazingly powerful weapons, and yes, against vehicles, they do seem to be making a big impact. But how many casualties do they actually cause against infantry? Every day, there are about 7-10 new videos of drone attacks killing infantry on both sides - many more videos from the Ukrainian POV though. But since these attacks due to their nature are pretty much always filmed, what if those 7-10 videos are pretty much the whole story of all succesful drone attacks that day? In that case, "only" maybe 20-30 casualties are caused by drone attacks. Bad if you're on the receiving end, but not a lot compared to the hundreds of thousands of troops killed in this war by all kinds of weapons. So what I'm trying to get at here is that our perception of drones as game-changing weapons might be skewed by a strong selection bias. Anyone here saw some credible estimates of the scale of casulties caused by drones (FPV kamikaze + grenade drops) compared to other weapons? How many drone attacks fail and therefore never get shown? 5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said: I know all that. What I'm saying is: Are the uploaded FPV / grenade drop videos just a few examples of many more such succesful attacks? Are several hundred troops on both sides really killed by drones each day? Or are the uploaded videos pretty much all there is? In the latter case, the real drone casualty numbers would be just 10-20 a day. Nothing war changing. Drones still have a big impact against vehicles and supply depots, and as artillery spotters, but that's a different thing. My question is about the direct attacks on infantry. I am starting to think they are a bit like WW2 strafing runs. Scary, they do kill a few people, big impact on morale, but not really a factor in winning or losing the war. Until a new factory comes on line somewhere, and one side or the other suddenly has ten, or a hundred times as many of the little monsters. Never mind that the new one would probably be better monsters... Long thread about just how awful life is for the mobiks, things that can't go on forever, don't. Someone is clearly following these around by satellite, and they just keep getting tagged as soon as they come too close to the front. I wonder how you get the "privilege" of crewing one? This guy isn't dead yet, but he doesn't exactly look overjoyed with life... Edited January 9 by dan/california 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, alison said: Do these in production models all need to be one pilot, one drone, or can a single pilot realistically control a flight or even a squadron already? I am trying to imagine how swarming will work if the gimmick is simultaneous attacks. Even if the autonomous drones are smart enough to hold formation en route to the target, I imagine at some point for the swarm to be effective we're going to need human pilots to do the final run. At least, that's the impression I get from the videos we have seen released so far. The bottleneck is bandwidth. There are a finite number of control (1GHz) and video channels (2.4/5.8GHz, plus analouge video channels), and this is exacerbated by EW. So you cannot control that many drones, over that large a distance, unless you have a lot/fancy antennas, and all the drones set up for it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: The bottleneck is bandwidth. There are a finite number of control (1GHz) and video channels (2.4/5.8GHz, plus analouge video channels), and this is exacerbated by EW. So you cannot control that many drones, over that large a distance, unless you have a lot/fancy antennas, and all the drones set up for it. But autonomous systems have the potential to change this, even if it is just five or ten of them flying a loop, while the operator grabs them one at a time to target things. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 34 minutes ago, dan/california said: Long thread about just how awful life is for the mobiks, things that can't go on forever, don't. Posted this before, but still classic. By the second winter, the boots had worn out... Even Comrade Lenin underestimated both the anguish of that 900 mile long front, and our cursed capacity for suffering. Edited January 9 by LongLeftFlank 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 hours ago, Bulletpoint said: I know all that. What I'm saying is: Are the uploaded FPV / grenade drop videos just a few examples of many more such succesful attacks? Are several hundred troops on both sides really killed by drones each day? Or are the uploaded videos pretty much all there is? In the latter case, the real drone casualty numbers would be just 10-20 a day. Nothing war changing. Drones still have a big impact against vehicles and supply depots, and as artillery spotters, but that's a different thing. My question is about the direct attacks on infantry. I am starting to think they are a bit like WW2 strafing runs. Scary, they do kill a few people, big impact on morale, but not really a factor in winning or losing the war. FPV kamikaze are as rule used like flying ammo against already detected targets, while quadrocpoters with granades can do "hunt" on their own or serve as dual recon/bomber role- so they are effectively two different categories of weapons, the latter working in tandem with mortar and artillery teams (there are naturally also some hybrids). As I read from volunteers, there are commanders in AFU who adhere to very strict usage of kamikaze, forbiding wasting them on single Russians. Others prefer to use all their ordonance at hand and see Russians doing "Benny Hill runs" in their crosshairs. So even one brigade can have different outcomes and drone usage. Overal, it seems scale of attacks differs greatly in different sectors. Perhaps @Haiduk will be aware of any statistics regarding actual personnel losses due to smaller drones. But as above- they shouldn't be viewed as separate weapon systems on their own but a kind of enablers on micro tactical scale. Btw. tanks and IFV's are also in this category, direct effects of their fire is probably minimal in overal casualties- but crucial in larger context. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiggathebauce Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, dan/california said: Until a new factory comes on line somewhere, and one side or the other suddenly has ten, or a hundred times as many of the little monsters. Never mind that the new one would probably be better monsters... Long thread about just how awful life is for the mobiks, things that can't go on forever, don't. Someone is clearly following these around by satellite, and they just keep getting tagged as soon as they come too close to the front. I wonder how you get the "privilege" of crewing one? This guy isn't dead yet, but he doesn't exactly look overjoyed with life.. While I don't doubt that Russian conditions are appalling as described, I do want to point out that anything from Radio Free Europe(or Radio Free Asia, for that matter) should be taken with a grain of salt and independently corroborated. It's literally government media, CIA if I'm not mistaken. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Swedes must mentally prepare for war, says military top brass https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/swedes-must-mentally-prepare-for-war-says-military-top-brass 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said: they do kill a few people, big impact on morale, but not really a factor in winning or losing the war. Even if "all" they did was 'have a big impact on morale' that would still be huge. Demoralised troops surrender. Demoralised units collapse. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, JonS said: Even if "all" they did was 'have a big impact on morale' that would still be huge. Demoralised troops surrender. Demoralised units collapse. That's a good point. Also, drones provide excellent propaganda material because they film the damage they do up close in horrible detail. Just still curious about the scope of drone casualties. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yet Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 hours ago, The_Capt said: 1 for 1 is likely unsustainable when talking about a million drones. Obviously they won’t all be up at once but even 5k per day is a lot of operators and EM. 1 million drones /year 2700 / day 1 operator can make... say 5 flights/day? that would come down to 540 operators. over 500km front (not counting Africa) does it still sound so impossible? Maybe identifying enough targets might be the bottleneck. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 56 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: Swedes must mentally prepare for war, says military top brass https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/swedes-must-mentally-prepare-for-war-says-military-top-brass Bork bork bork! Edited January 9 by JonS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Yet said: 1 million drones /year 2700 / day 1 operator can make... say 5 flights/day? that would come down to 540 operators. over 500km front (not counting Africa) does it still sound so impossible? Maybe identifying enough targets might be the bottleneck. Would have to be able to surge, so I would triple that number to give flex. Then you need a sustainment ratio for losses and rotations - one cannot leave an FPV operator on the front line for 365 days and expect reliability. I would estimate a corps of about 5-6k would be required, including a school house to train up replacements. Then you have got C4ISR to deal with. But say you want to saturate an area with 20k FPVs...to say, do a minefield operation. That would take the entire corps at 4-5 flights per day. In an area about 5 x 20km? No, I think we are going to need some autonomy at work here, or deconfliction and coord is going to get unmanageable. Edited January 9 by The_Capt 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seedorf81 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Would have to be able to surge, so I would triple that number to give flex. Then you need a sustainment ratio for losses and rotations - one cannot leave an FPV operator on the front line for 365 days and expect reliability. I would estimate a corps of about 5-6k would be required, including a school house to train up replacements. Then you have got C4ISR to deal with. But say you want to saturate an area with 20k FPVs...to say, do a minefield operation. That would take the entire corps at 4-5 flights per day. In an area about 5 x 20km? No, I think we are going to need some autonomy at work here, or deconfliction and coord is going to get unmanageable. I always wondered why armies didn't use old(er) people. (Except for the German Volkssturm in ww2, of course.) Not frontline troops, that's a no brainer, but driving ambulances or trucks, for instance. Doing repair stuff and doing maintenance, cooking and cleaning. Communications and what not. All the jobs that older persons (yes, also women) can do, and that will free younger people up to do the frontline fighting. Since Ukraine is struggling with manpower, why not using fifty or sixty-year old (or older, even) men and women to fly drones? I know, a lot of older people are not good with modern technology, but a: there are loads and loads of old people (I'm 61, by the way), b: at least a part of them could learn how to use drones and c: they're more expendable than young people, future-wise. (I know, dubious argument for some, but still valid.) And d: because they already live on a pension, you don't even have to pay 'm much! I'm serious. For flying a drone you do not have to be physically superfit, you need to be smart. And some old people are smart. Shouldn't be too difficult to find 5000 clever pensioners, would it? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 1 hour ago, JonS said: Even if "all" they did was 'have a big impact on morale' that would still be huge. Demoralised troops surrender. Demoralised units collapse. It's claimed these four Russians surrendered, because their morale was completely broken, when their position was conttinuosly hit by FPVs. The guy from the right is mercenery from one of "Global South" countries %) By the way about new source of mereceries. It's claimed Egyptian merceneries in Russian army I can't imagine how these people can survive in trenches in our climate. Edited January 9 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 25 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said: I always wondered why armies didn't use old(er) people. (Except for the German Volkssturm in ww2, of course.) Not frontline troops, that's a no brainer, but driving ambulances or trucks, for instance. Doing repair stuff and doing maintenance, cooking and cleaning. Communications and what not. All the jobs that older persons (yes, also women) can do, and that will free younger people up to do the frontline fighting. Since Ukraine is struggling with manpower, why not using fifty or sixty-year old (or older, even) men and women to fly drones? I know, a lot of older people are not good with modern technology, but a: there are loads and loads of old people (I'm 61, by the way), b: at least a part of them could learn how to use drones and c: they're more expendable than young people, future-wise. (I know, dubious argument for some, but still valid.) And d: because they already live on a pension, you don't even have to pay 'm much! I'm serious. For flying a drone you do not have to be physically superfit, you need to be smart. And some old people are smart. Shouldn't be too difficult to find 5000 clever pensioners, would it? My guess is how far from the front these systems need to be and how far one wants to hit. Keeping older people 10km back could reduce forward range. But for long range systems, like 100kms, well then there would really be no reason. Older people have slower reflexes but they tend to be steadier. There are a lot of jobs one does not need a 18-35 year old for. Men or women is an outdated concept as there are really no jobs that an 18 year old cannot do in modern militaries with either gender…we spent the last 30 years learning that one. Warfare is still physical but more in terms of endurance, not speed and power. Mental acuity, reflexes, observation, and communication skills are more important now. A drone operator could be in a wheelchair so long as you can keep the link to the platform open. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Since yesterday Russian troops launched heaviest assault of Krynky bridgehead among all previous. FPVs and grenade-droppers in conditions of artillery shells lack (but for Krynky bridgehead is not so feels like on some other directions) is deadly weapon, which is capably partilally substitute "mass of salvo", but with effectiveness of guided ammunition Just two videos of FPVs work on Krynky assault repelling First video - platoon-size armored group on BMD-4M destroyed by FPVs Second video - T-72B3M obr.2022 just nuked out by FPV hit Before Russians started next assault of bridgehead they lost top-officer in classical situation for Russian army: Colonel Arman Ospanov, chief of armor service of VDV Command. As claimed comrade-in-arms of general Teplinskiy. Ospanov on Jan 6th arrived with inspection to Kozachi Laheri wesrt from Krynky and in this time he got a report from recovery squad leader, that his BREM-1 ACRV, trying to tow BTR-82A, disables near Krynky has broken tow rope. Colonel pesonally took new rope, sat in UAZ and has driven to place of evacuation. On the route his UAZ was spotted by drone and targeted with artillery. He and recovery squad leader were killed 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Quote https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2024 Russian government and media officials recently have died, possibly under mysterious circumstances...... A Russian state media outlet confirmed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) detained three officers of its Directorate “M” in connection with a high-profile bribery scheme....... People who have fallen out of windows, and people who soon will. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, The_Capt said: My guess is how far from the front these systems need to be and how far one wants to hit. Keeping older people 10km back could reduce forward range. But for long range systems, like 100kms, well then there would really be no reason. Older people have slower reflexes but they tend to be steadier. There are a lot of jobs one does not need a 18-35 year old for. Men or women is an outdated concept as there are really no jobs that an 18 year old cannot do in modern militaries with either gender…we spent the last 30 years learning that one. Warfare is still physical but more in terms of endurance, not speed and power. Mental acuity, reflexes, observation, and communication skills are more important now. A drone operator could be in a wheelchair so long as you can keep the link to the platform open. At a guess, the personnel bottleneck is more in the crews who actually launch, recover, maintain and arm the drones than in the 'pilots'. Separately, any idea what these AFVs are, brewing up in the Krynki bridgehead: stubby hull shape suggests BMP but turret more tanklike. T55s? (which btw has been holding out for what, almost 3 months now? 3 Marine battalions defying the best remaining RU mobile forces trying to dislodge them) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe982 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 hours ago, dan/california said: Until a new factory comes on line somewhere, and one side or the other suddenly has ten, or a hundred times as many of the little monsters. Never mind that the new one would probably be better monsters... Long thread about just how awful life is for the mobiks, things that can't go on forever, don't. Someone is clearly following these around by satellite, and they just keep getting tagged as soon as they come too close to the front. I wonder how you get the "privilege" of crewing one? This guy isn't dead yet, but he doesn't exactly look overjoyed with life... I can't tell which side he is on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Russian repeater drone review 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said: Separately, any idea what these AFVs are, brewing up in the Krynki bridgehead: stubby hull shape suggests BMP but turret more tanklike. T55s? See my post above about Krynky assault. This is BMD-4M more likely. 104th air-assault division is on that direction, having some new BMD-4M and older BMD-2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 53 minutes ago, Haiduk said: The guy from the right is mercenery from one of "Global South" countries %) Damn at first sight I thought they wrapped him in Hamas headband. Vivisection of type of Russian drone. Edited January 9 by Beleg85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said: I always wondered why armies didn't use old(er) people… I'm serious. For flying a drone you do not have to be physically superfit, you need to be smart. And some old people are smart. Shouldn't be too difficult to find 5000 clever pensioners, would it? As much as a I like old man’s war remixed with ender’s game, the problem as always is the data link. If we had a magical laser or satellite link like real countries use to control drones, sure, no problem. But for small el-cheapo drones, that just won’t exist without a robust repeater network, which could absolutely be built. The real trick would be to allow pilots to fly from other countries, assuming latency is low enough. I’d love to go blow some Russian soldier face off to work out my aggression before morning meetings. I imagine people would happily pay for the opportunity to do this, in fact./ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omae2 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Haiduk said: Since yesterday Russian troops launched heaviest assault of Krynky bridgehead among all previous. FPVs and grenade-droppers in conditions of artillery shells lack (but for Krynky bridgehead is not so feels like on some other directions) is deadly weapon, which is capably partilally substitute "mass of salvo", but with effectiveness of guided ammunition Just two videos of FPVs work on Krynky assault repelling First video - platoon-size armored group on BMD-4M destroyed by FPVs Second video - T-72B3M obr.2022 just nuked out by FPV hit Before Russians started next assault of bridgehead they lost top-officer in classical situation for Russian army: Colonel Arman Ospanov, chief of armor service of VDV Command. As claimed comrade-in-arms of general Teplinskiy. Ospanov on Jan 6th arrived with inspection to Kozachi Laheri wesrt from Krynky and in this time he got a report from recovery squad leader, that his BREM-1 ACRV, trying to tow BTR-82A, disables near Krynky has broken tow rope. Colonel pesonally took new rope, sat in UAZ and has driven to place of evacuation. On the route his UAZ was spotted by drone and targeted with artillery. He and recovery squad leader were killed Why would a colonel risk himself for delivering a rope to tow a BTR? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 13 minutes ago, omae2 said: Why would a colonel risk himself for delivering a rope to tow a BTR? A good combat leader, leading from the front and doing what needs doing. That's a heavy loss for the Russians. P.S. News YOU can use! Edited January 9 by LongLeftFlank 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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