How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Epic Russian mobik.

 

[cyrano01]

23 hours ago, Tux said:

What you think seems to be a reflection of Russia's own internal propaganda line -  that the West spends all its time envying and plotting against the mighty Russian people.  It's just bollocks (oh, there we are - the one-word response made it into print after all).

Absolutely.

 

it is also worth keeping in mind that there are a lot of other things that affect European elections than Russia and the Ukrainian war. Times is 'ard and, as a result, incumbent governments tend to take a beating. Since parties of the populist righthave largely been in opposition for most of the last couple of decades they will tend to benefit from this cf Meloni and Wilders.

I can't speak for the rest of Europe but in the UK the top priorities heading towards the next general election  seem to be the cost of living, the state of the health service, cost/availability of housing and immigration. The average voter probably couldn't identify Ukraine on a map and thinks Kyiv is something to do with chicken and garlic. The idea of a pro-Russian groundswell seems far fetched.

 

[hcrof]

On the topic of mobilization and Ukrainian civil society. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

I think part of the problem with Ukraine's motivations to keep the war going is how things went between 2015 and the start of this war.  It was low level enough that most people, especially in the big cities and west, were able to tune it out.  The lost territory didn't affect them directly and if it did years went by and adjustments were made.  People got comfortable with a forever war with Russia.  It is possible that people are now thinking the same thing about the lost territories Russia sits on and thinking "we gave it our best shot, so let's just move on" when faced with the alternative which is mobilization on a large scale.

Steve

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, hcrof said:

On the topic of mobilization and Ukrainian civil society. 

Ukrainian society in this question was heavy affected by Russian and local politics PsyOps. And alas, by real facts how many commanders and military medicine commitees treat servicemen like in Soviet army where you are not valuable miltary specialist, even if you are rifleman, but a penny-cost spare part. 

As I wrote several months ago, main categories of population, who is not in army yet remained "I don't want to go at war, but if I mobilized I will go", "I don't wan't to go at war, but if I mobilized I will be forced to go because I will be prosecutd" and "I don't wan't to go at war, I'm free human being, mobilization and closed borders are violation of my human rights/ I'm citizen of the world / I hate your corrupted failed state / I want Russia will come"

Russian PsyOps actively works with first two groups and actively involve the latter group for influence with a message "we already lost the war, all hopes are crashed, Zaluzhnyi need 500 000 for meat assaults, all who will be mobilized will die". Or conspiracy "West will wage a war until last Ukrainian and after just will grab our soil"

Alas many "opposition" politics works against too. Some followers of Poroshenko actively shared takes that this is Zelenskiy guilted that Russia invaded, his corruption led that West will reject to support his authoritarian regime, so we can't win the war, so we need to establish new "Government of trust" it  should start negotiations and best solutions would be "Minsk-3" (something like this already was hinted by Poroshenko personally). All this reinforced with a take "So, did you live too bad with Poroshenko and Minsk-2? Well, now with full-scale war and missiles are raining from the sky, with dozens of thousands killed - now do you feel better?". To be fair, not all Poroshenko followers share these takes and many Russian bots mask under Poroshenko-followers, sowing many hate in our social media. 

   

 

Edited January 6 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

On 1/5/2024 at 5:06 PM, Zeleban said:

Yes, and the destroyed M-Tac equipment factory in the center of Kyiv (the most protected place in Ukraine) is evidence of this.

"Kurenivka" area is not a center. But M-TAC claimed their workshop was targeted with three missiles Kh-101. Unclear all three hit or a part. 

Also by rumors in twitter, on 29th of Dec not only storage was destroyed in Kyiv, but in the same place was destroyed one of workshops of DB LUCH (main plant is in otehr part of the city). By the way already 30 dead in result of this attack.  

[Haiduk]

Article in English about preliminary researching of ballistic missile parts (tail part of one of missiles remained in quite large fragments), which has struck Kharkiv several days ago. It is similar to Iskander-M, but has some differences. Diameter is on 10 mm more, assembling quality is much worse, erased factory mrks on many parts, no EW system, etc. But to make final conclusion that this is N.Korean missile need to conduct additioanal researhes

  https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/6/7436148/

But I agree with Zeliban. 

Evil Axis Russia - N.Korea - Iran with proxies backed by China is growing own strength month by month, arming each other and igniting conflicts, threating to West sensitive areas (Gaza, Red Sea)

Russia expanded own "Shadow Axis" - BRICS, several days ago Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Ethiopia joined to this organisation, so BRICS countries now control 45 % of world oil 

US claimed: N.Korea will regret if hands over ballistic missiles to Russia

N. Korea: handed over

US: we will put personal sanctions on persons, responsible for this and will call UNSC meeting to blame this

UK: This is a victory! We forced Russia to walk with outstrached hand! They beg missiles in N,Korea and Iran!

Ukraine: soooo, but how it help us? N.Korea gave missile to Russia "stretched hand". Can we get at last ATACAMS, BGM-109 and Taurus?

West: this may cause escalation.Maybe will be better if we help you to produce 155 mm shells? Through the year or two...

N.Korea: shelled S.Korea territory with artilelry

Evil Axis (chorus): Yes, we are fu...g nuts. And what will you do to us?

West: sinking in 1000 round tables and deep concernings  

Alas, in situations "tough times demand tough solutions" liberal democracy is too slow in comparison with authocraties and dictatorships

 

 

Edited January 6 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russia destroyed next "strategic object". Reporetdly S-300 missiles (but maybe N.Korean) hit Pokrovsk town of Donetsk oblast. Six private houses completely destroyed. Whole street was badly damaged. 11 civilians were killed, among them 5 kids, 10 injured. 

Russia often hit Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts towns, close to frontline. S-300, Iskanders, Smerch. These strikes don't count in official statistic, because this is considered as combat zone. But people still live here. 

Edited January 7 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

15 hours ago, Sojourner said:

Gee, what can't Ukraine do with a drone?

Here a video with some tactic of drone ammo dropping usage, which only now was allowed to post. Skilled UKR operators, using race mode of FPVs bomb Russian positions and infantry with toss-bombing, when FPV is nor a kamikadze, but a bomber. This video is from summer

Next top-ace bombing example - 3-points drop from high altitute into opened hatch through "barbeque grid"

 

But Russians improve own drone technologies too. This is TG post of know UKR specialist of Russian captured drone and EW system researcher

First time I've seen on own eyes the video, intercepted from Russian FPV, equipped with machine vision and autolocking of target. More, it has thermal mode. It's still raw, but already tests on frontline.

My friends from Ministry of DIgitalization, let hurry up with our solutions

For those, who is not in the thread. The pilot reach the target and marked it from the top, further the drone makes everything itself. What is change:

1. EW cupolas now are useless

2. Experienced pilots are no needed

3. The losing of pictures near the land is no matter (range of fly will incrace in two times).

4. Moving target will hit more precisely.

I really worried about this. You understans role of FPVs in this war 

  

Updated statistic of spotted Russian strike drones usage in social media. For December this number increased to 759 (upper green bar). Source - LostArmor

 

Edited January 6 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

First time I've seen on own eyes the video, intercepted from Russian FPV, equipped with machine vision and autolocking of target. More, it has thermal mode. It's still raw, but already tests on frontline.

My friends from Ministry of DIgitalization, let hurry up with our solutions

For those, who is not in the thread. The pilot reach the target and marked it from the top, further the drone makes everything itself. What is change:

1. EW cupolas now are useless

2. Experienced pilots are no needed

3. The losing of pictures near the land is no matter (range of fly will incrace in two times).

4. Moving target will hit more precisely.

I really worried about this. You understans role of FPVs in this war 

It seems Ukrainians also successfully work in this field; here drones possibly working without GPS (some believe observed from Warmate) reportedly targeting two pieces of Pantsir.

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

I remember there was some interest in in the spillover of this war into Africa last year. Interesting video of General Budanov's birthday being celebrated in Sudan. Guessing this is related to Ukrainians helping them take care of their Wagner problem.

I know it is a few days late but I would also like to wish General Budanov a happy belated birthday.

[poesel]

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It seems Ukrainians also successfully work in this field; here drones possibly working without GPS (some believe observed from Warmate) reportedly targeting two pieces of Pantsir.

That does not surprise me. Object recognition and tracking are well into the capability range of €10 microcontrollers for years now. It just (*) needed someone to merge it with the flight control of a drone, and here we are.

 

(*) just is the engineer's term for a few months to make it work

[Seedorf81]

https://www.technology.org/2023/01/05/how-much-do-155-mm-artillery-rounds-cost-now-and-how-many-are-fired-in-ukraine/

 

This short article calculated that an average "normal' 155 mm artillery round costs about 3300 Euro's. (3600 $)

And on average Ukraine fires about 4000 - 7000 of these per DAY(!) and the Russians about 20.000 per DAY(!). And that is just 155 mm shells.

(And one Excalibur-round costs about 103.000 Euro's (110.000 $).

 

Nothing new for most of our Forummembers, I reckon, but I did some math in order to have a better look at the ridiculous magnitude of the cost of war. (I am one of those simpletons that frequently asks himself if it wouldn't be much better if we used war-money for let's say climate-control.)

So.. in order to be sure not to exaggerate I use an average total number of 5.000 shells per day from the Ukrainians and 15.000 rounds from the Russians. That's 20.000 155mm rounds fired EVERY day, but let's say 300 days usage in stead of 365 in a year.

One round is 3300 euro's x 20.000 = 66.000.000 euro's per day.

66.000.000 x 300 days =19.800.000.000 euro's per year. (Had to check and double-check, because it blew my mind, couldn't believe it.) 1/4 is for Ukraine to pay, 3/4 for Russia.

But this is only the cost of 155 mm artillery-shells.

Not one 155mm gun, not one riflebullet, not one gallon of gas, not one drone, not one uniform, not one vehicle, not one bandage and well, you get the drift. I knew that a "cheap" missile is 20.000 euro's, that one Javelinlauncher costs more than 100.000 dollars and so on and so forth, but I never understood the bigger picture until this little 155mm round calculation. The cost of war is incomprehensible.

Now I understand the endless asking, pleading, bargaining and begging for support from Zelensky. He must.

 

Edited January 7 by Seedorf81
small addition

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

I knew that a "cheap" missile is 20.000 euro's, that one Javelinlauncher costs more than 100.000 dollars and so on and so forth, but I never understood the bigger picture until this little 155mm round calculation. The cost of war is incomprehensible.

I wonder how much of the cost is profit. If a single standard shell is 3300 euro, how much of that cost is actually for the steel, the explosives, the fuse, and the physical labour?

Of course a Javelin launcher is much more high tech than a shell, but still. 100,000 dollars. That's like the cost of a brand new Tesla, which is also full of technology.

[Seedorf81]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I wonder how much of the cost is profit. If a single standard shell is 3300 euro, how much of that cost is actually for the steel, the explosives, the fuse, and the physical labour?

Of course a Javelin launcher is much more high tech than a shell, but still. 100,000 dollars. That's like the cost of a brand new Tesla, which is also full of technology.

Decades ago I was tought that if you start a new company, or make a new product, the first profit-percentage that you could/should use was 25%.  Later on, when production-numbers and costs became more clearly, one could adapt that percentage if needed or wanted.

I think this 25% is still a good guess for the 155 mm shells, so 825 euro profit. (Could be way off, of course.)

Sad "little" (not if you realize the huge amounts of money involved) extra handicap for the Ukrainians.. profit made on donated foreign-supplied ammo does not flow back into the Ukrainian economy, but the profit made on the Russian shells stays, except for those from North-Korea, mostly in Russia.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

https://www.technology.org/2023/01/05/how-much-do-155-mm-artillery-rounds-cost-now-and-how-many-are-fired-in-ukraine/

 

This short article calculated that an average "normal' 155 mm artillery round costs about 3300 Euro's. (3600 $)

And on average Ukraine fires about 4000 - 7000 of these per DAY(!) and the Russians about 20.000 per DAY(!). And that is just 155 mm shells.

(And one Excalibur-round costs about 103.000 Euro's (110.000 $).

 

Nothing new for most of our Forummembers, I reckon, but I did some math in order to have a better look at the ridiculous magnitude of the cost of war. (I am one of those simpletons that frequently asks himself if it wouldn't be much better if we used war-money for let's say climate-control.)

So.. in order to be sure not to exaggerate I use an average total number of 5.000 shells per day from the Ukrainians and 15.000 rounds from the Russians. That's 20.000 155mm rounds fired EVERY day, but let's say 300 days usage in stead of 365 in a year.

One round is 3300 euro's x 20.000 = 66.000.000 euro's per day.

66.000.000 x 300 days =19.800.000.000 euro's per year. (Had to check and double-check, because it blew my mind, couldn't believe it.) 1/4 is for Ukraine to pay, 3/4 for Russia.

But this is only the cost of 155 mm artillery-shells.

Not one 155mm gun, not one riflebullet, not one gallon of gas, not one drone, not one uniform, not one vehicle, not one bandage and well, you get the drift. I knew that a "cheap" missile is 20.000 euro's, that one Javelinlauncher costs more than 100.000 dollars and so on and so forth, but I never understood the bigger picture until this little 155mm round calculation. The cost of war is incomprehensible.

Now I understand the endless asking, pleading, bargaining and begging for support from Zelensky. He must.

 

And if your numbers are correct there is a lot of losses being eaten by the Ukraine allies side:

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

https://app.23degrees.io/view/KJpesgWQv1CmxoMr-bar-stacked-horizontal-figure-5_scv

So all Ukrainian direct military aid comes to about $100B in this war so far based on national reporting.  There is no way that a single munition is accounting for 20% of that aid cost estimate.  Somewhere in the chain governments are low balling those costs per unit downward.  The manufacturers are still making profit so the offset is likely within government budgets.  They buy a 155 shell at $3500 and then push onto Ukraine at a fraction of that price.

Now before anyone goes all “Imma taxpayer dammit!”  Just keep it in perspective.  Estimates on GWOT (which include Iraq and Afghanistan) range up to 8 trillion dollars.  And that was basically one big 20 year VEO bug hunt.  This war is countering a disruptive great power rival by proxy - should be a far higher priority.  So we are really in bargain basement war territory here.

https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar

Edited January 7 by The_Capt

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

Decades ago I was tought that if you start a new company, or make a new product, the first profit-percentage that you could/should use was 25%.  Later on, when production-numbers and costs became more clearly, one could adapt that percentage if needed or wanted.

I think this 25% is still a good guess for the 155 mm shells, so 825 euro profit. (Could be way off, of course.)

Sad "little" (not if you realize the huge amounts of money involved) extra handicap for the Ukrainians.. profit made on donated foreign-supplied ammo does not flow back into the Ukrainian economy, but the profit made on the Russian shells stays, except for those from North-Korea, mostly in Russia.

I made a basic error , 25% isn't from total price, but price before profit.

In stead of 825 euro from 3300, of course it should be 660 euro from 2640 before profit.

[Letter from Prague]

As a taxpayer, I want at least 73.5 % of my money be used to fight Russia.

[sburke]

The Ukrainian Navy Blows Up As Much Russian Naval Tonnage As Russian Shipyards Manage To Build (msn.com)

Most of the world’s leading navies are getting bigger—a lot bigger—by one key metric: tonnage.

But not the Russian navy. It’s struggling to grow at all, and for one main reason. The Ukrainian navy, which has no large front-line ships, keeps sinking and blowing up Russian vessels.

 

Reddit-user Phoenix_jz annually aggregates, analyzes and publishes the total tonnage of the top 10 navies. Their most recent survey, published this week, should encourage advocates of a free Ukraine—and worry proponents of Russian aggression.

In 2023, the Russian navy added just 6,300 tons and ended the year with a total tonnage of 2,152,000. The Russians would have added 17,700 tons last year through the new construction of a new frigate, corvettes, a minesweeper and submarines, but the Ukrainians destroyed Black Sea Fleet vessels together weighing 11,400 tons.
In losing nearly as much tonnage as it built in 2023, the Russian navy joins an exclusive and embarrassing club of stagnant or shrinking navies. The 886,000-ton Royal Navy also shrank in 2023, which is nothing new for what once was the world’s greatest fleet but in recent decades steadily has withered under the mismanagement of successive governments.

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

And on average Ukraine fires about 4000 - 7000 of these per DAY(!) and the Russians about 20.000 per DAY(!). And that is just 155 mm shells.

Russians don't produce 155mm shells but 152 mm, which are also used in older Ukrainian pieces that survived and still consist significant part of AFU artillery park. This variety should be taken into consideration when talking about ammo disparity of both sides (I know that year ago Ukrainian artillery had serious, even dramatic shortages of these, but several companies in the West produce them and they probably managed to reach some stable- if low- plateau of supply by now).

It should be very interesting to compare overal price of production of this type of shell by muscovites with their industrial capacities, but we lack concrete data and only have approximations afaik- and these can be very tricky when talking about Russian economy and industry.

PGM's are also an issue here; katsaps rumped up their production significantly, which sadly was visible in better performance of their arillerymen in 2023. Old dumb barrages a la Seelow Heights are rarer now

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/08/24/russia-increased-artillery-shell-production/

Europe also slowly develop its support in this regard (too slow to my taste, but still):

https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-09-06/asap-eu-support-ammunition-production-member-states

Plus we also use broad Western connections in the world; lately have flood of videos of Krab crews loading Indian-made ammo.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/01/01/ukraine-is-using-indian-155mm-shells-for-the-polish-krab-sph/

Edited January 7 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

One more loss in our Air Forces.

23 y.o. "Blue Helmet" MiG-29 pilot has died during the mission. Those, who know what happened, hint this was accident, not a combat loss. But currently it's not allowed to say about reasons of his death and to make public his name. His family, according to the law can't receive 15 millions UAH of compensation (because non-combat death), so volunteers opened fundrising to support the family, until they will solve numerous bureaucracy barriers to get much smaller compensation

    

 

Edited January 7 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I wonder how much of the cost is profit. If a single standard shell is 3300 euro, how much of that cost is actually for the steel, the explosives, the fuse, and the physical labour?

Of course a Javelin launcher is much more high tech than a shell, but still. 100,000 dollars. That's like the cost of a brand new Tesla, which is also full of technology.

Now you are going to get me onto one of my favorite rants!!

Years ago a Honda outboard motor in the 150hp range cost as much as a Honda Fit 4 door passenger car with about the same HP.  That's right... an outboard motor was as much as an entire car produced by the same company!  Not only is it staggering to conceive of the production differences between the two (materials, shop time, shop space, logistics, etc.) but also all of the massive regulations and startup costs necessary to get a passenger vehicle into production vs. a simple outboard motor. 

The only explanation I have ever come up with for the price difference is that one says "Marine" on it.  Because anybody who has a boat knows that if it says Marine, it's 10x more expensive than something similar thing that doesn't.

Steve

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now you are going to get me onto one of my favorite rants!!

Wait till you hear about pricing differences for airline seats!!

[JonS]

21 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Alas, in situations "tough times demand tough solutions" liberal democracy is too slow in comparison with authocraties and dictatorships

This is fabulously wrong headed.

"Somehow", those effete slow liberal democracies managed to win WWII, Korea, Cold War, Gulf War, etc against those superlative and efficient autocracies and dictatorships.

[Seedorf81]

The Capt and Beleg85 thank you for your clarifying posts.

The Capt:

I never suspected the "low balling" and "dumping" of the ammo at a much lower price. Makes sense, and at the same time it doesn't.

One question:  you wrote "(..)one big 20 year VEO bug hunt", but even my good friend Urban Dictionary couldn't come up with a good explaination for VEO. Could you, or anyone, explain what VEO means in this context, please?

 

Beleg85:

Well spotted that the forementioned article missed the 155 - 152 mm difference. I assume the writers meant 152 mm calibre for the 20.000 Russian shells.

 

Both your posts enhance my understanding (and awe, and some disbelief)of the humongous amounts of money that are related to war. It also shows me that there are much more people that make much more money from investing in war, and war-related enterprises, than I realised. Why would they choose peace??