How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

As if we need more evidence that mechanized breaching is no longer practical, may I present to you Exhibit R, or is it S?  I'm losing track

The jump cuts in this one are, as always, unfortunate as it limits our understanding of the specifics of what happened.  The end result, however, is pretty clear that the two tanks and two BMPs that started the attack run didn't make it.  And inconceivably a third BMP came into the mix after the column was already destroyed, accomplishing nothing but adding to the losses.

There is also evidence of a similar sized attack that had previously been destroyed, probably bumbling around in mines.

I suspect some of the vehicles were destroyed by ATMGs instead of mines, but it is difficult to know for sure.

Steve

It is the fact that the entire thing is seen via UAS that is the game changer.  The UA picked that small armor column up well back, queued any shooters - ATGM or indirect fires (looks like some DPICM at the end - and then provided any corrections and BDA.  That lead Russian tank had a roller on it and of course it was first to go.

Anything short of complete air superiority, and I mean from ground level to freakin space, is not going to solve this easily.  And even then, as we learned in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, a small two man ATGM team is still damned hard to find.  Now they have systems that can reach kms.

Cleansing a minefield for tens of kms behind it is simply not practical right now.

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well with the Republicans blocking aid in Congress, not sure what Plan B would be other than to try and tie this thing off.  Biden admin isn’t bailing, US Congress looks like it is.

Political reality of the Republicans being too internally disorganized to support Ukraine is something the Biden Admin needs to adjust to, like it or not.

Beyond that the reality is nobody has a solution for getting Russia to leave through force of arms.  Keeping this war going as it has before, therefore, isn't going to work.  Defensive primacy works for them just as it does Ukraine.  At least for now.  Some shift in strategy is inevitable.

The best strategy I can see is for Ukraine to go on the defensive for the time being and work on undermining Russia's ability to maintain its defenses.  Continuing to sink the Black Sea Fleet and slaughtering its attempts to take more Ukrainian land are solid moves.  A cease fire would theoretically put those on the back burner.  I don't think that's a good idea, however I'm not convinced that a short term traditional cease fire (i.e. both sides just agree to not shoot each other, nothing more) works to Russia's advantage more than Ukraine's.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And what would be stopping Warlord of Novosibirks from selling a few nukes to Hamas or ISIL if there is no Russian state?  The one thing all states agree on is that non-state actors do not get WMDs - not even NK has broken that one.  If Russia falls uncontrollably apart and those weapons fall into non-state hands the entire world has got a major problem.

Yes, that is where I was going.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yes, that is where I was going.

Then we are deep agreement.  The most dangerous thing about non-state actors with WMDs is that is affords them the ability to negotiate via hard power at a state level.  Of Hamas lit off a single tac nuke over the ocean and declared it had four more pointed at Tel Aviv the entire situation in that war would shift dramatically.

States never had a monopoly on violence, that is a modern myth.  What they do have a monopoly on is the level of violence.  At a direct strategic and existential level only states are capable of these levels.    No terror action, no matter how dramatic, has ever been truly existential to the state - maybe the socialist revolutionaries of pre-Communist Russia came close but still not anywhere near what a state is able to do. In fact the only time non-state can approach existential threat levels is when it becomes a pseudo state (eg a civil war).  

So nuclear weapons are about the fireball but as impactful is what the threat of that fireball can do to the negotiating table.

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

Biden admin getting ready to bail?

For some strange definition of 'bail', perhaps, because that isn't what this article says at all.

...That said, if the below reporting is anywhere close to reality, the Ukrainians are having serious manpower problems which may well be part of why the Western backers are managing expectations down.

Ukraine Military Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks (NYT, Dec 2023)

While some believe that high casualty numbers are partially to blame for aggressive conscription tactics, others point to a different reason: many Ukrainian men have either fled or bribed their way out of the draft, leaving a shrinking pool of conscripts, some of whom are supposed to be exempt from mobilization.

War casualties (NYT) Aug 2023

Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops.

The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

Those Ukrainian estimates (for August) are about 20% higher than I would have thought.

But if they are accurate, then while I don't see collapse or mutiny as serious prospects, I wonder whether the UA can keep fighting in the same way it has with increasingly undermanned, exhausted combat troops, even if it switches purely to deep zone defence and attriting LOCs/attack concentrations.

...troops who *may* also start being materially outgunned again in 2024 (define that how you will), whether because Western aid is ebbing, or because the Russians are sourcing more/less wastefully, or both.

Edited December 28, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Political reality of the Republicans being too internally disorganized to support Ukraine is something the Biden Admin needs to adjust to, like it or not.

Beyond that the reality is nobody has a solution for getting Russia to leave through force of arms.  Keeping this war going as it has before, therefore, isn't going to work.  Defensive primacy works for them just as it does Ukraine.  At least for now.  Some shift in strategy is inevitable.

A clear non-arms strategy would be fantastic. Something like “Peel off Russian vassal states” or “Weaken the central authority” or “Make their oil export economy break” or “Make the trains stop running”.

• Mess with Transnistria. Blow up the big ammo dump, blame it on the yokels there.
• Similar for Kaliningrad, Chechnya, Dagestan, the Far East etc.
• Long shot: Get jiggy with Lukashenka???
• More visas for young pretty Russian women
• Better sanctions, especially on Russian tourists. An exit “war reparations” tax would be fun, for example
• Destroying Russian oil infra. As long as there is oil money, Russia can keep on going. 
• Go after the Russian shadow oil fleet. How Zelensky hasn’t written some letters of the marque is beyond me. What’s Russia gonna do, throw a tantrum?
• Continue with the sabotage of Russian rail infrastructure. The signal cabinets are the low-hanging fruit, but scarce resources like locomotives, service depots etc. would be great

Of course, the whole thing kind of falls apart if there’s no clear end goal at the top (obviously, there isn’t).

[Kraft]

35 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

For some strange definition of 'bail', perhaps, because that isn't what this article says at all.

...That said, if the below reporting is anywhere close to reality, the Ukrainians are having serious manpower problems which may well be part of why the Western backers are managing expectations down.

Ukraine Military Recruiters Use Harsh Tactics to Fill Ranks (NYT, Dec 2023)

While some believe that high casualty numbers are partially to blame for aggressive conscription tactics, others point to a different reason: many Ukrainian men have either fled or bribed their way out of the draft, leaving a shrinking pool of conscripts, some of whom are supposed to be exempt from mobilization.

War casualties (NYT) Aug 2023

Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops.

The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.

Those Ukrainian estimates (for August) are about 20% higher than I would have thought.

But if they are accurate, then while I don't see collapse or mutiny as serious prospects, I wonder whether the UA can keep fighting in the same way it has with increasingly undermanned, exhausted combat troops, even if it switches purely to defence and attriting LOCs.

...who *may* also start being materially outgunned again in 2024 (define that how you will), whether because Western aid is ebbing, or because the Russians are sourcing more/less wastefully, or both.

Id start by not reading the NYT. Their UA coverage is anything but impartial and neither are the russians working there.

Besides that note, manpower is an issue and also likely the reason russians stopped prisoner exchanges, leading to orcs gunning down surrendering troops at a noticibly higher rate than before.

Morale is definitively at the lowest it has ever been, with failing western support and a clearly in it to win it russia, that will not coup and surrender or revolt as everyone here keeps dreaming about.

They'll take another 300000 dead and the same sites will claim 'imminent collapse', 'mass surrenders', while the frontline edges further and further inland.

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Kraft

[Sgt Joch]

59 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

For some strange definition of 'bail', perhaps, because that isn't what this article says at all.

that is what the article says, unless you had trouble comprehending it...

Going from "we will back Ukraine with whatever it wants" to time to think about trading land for a Korea-style ceasefire is a pretty big shift. There is a reason why they decided to quietly drop this during the holidays when no one is really paying attention.

The only real question is whether this is a trial balloon to test the waters or a real shift in policy. Given all the other "stories" being leaked: "blame game" of who was responsible for the "failed" counter offensive, secret U.S.-Russia negotiations, "openness" of Putin to a ceasefire, etc. It is clear someone in the Biden WH is nervous about where this war is going and is looking for an off-ramp before 2024 really heats up.

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia's collapse is really about the march of time against an autocratic state more than it is external stressors.  Russia has been kicking so many cans down the road for so long that it's only a matter of time before they can't do it any longer.  We saw that in 1991, we saw it in 1993, we saw it again with the two wars in the Caucuses.  For a while Putin created a system that showed promise of keeping things going for a long time, but like so many before him that eroded into power for the sake of power.  That is inherently unstable.  The war in Ukraine has further stressed and destabilized the regime, but the war is the result of those stressors not the cause of them.  So if the war goes away, the stress remains and it remains at a much higher level than it started at in 2022.

I agree with billbindc that the most likely scenario for Russia is a reshuffling of regional power where most of Russia stays together but with less central control and exploitation.  Regions will keep more of the gains from natural resources, have more say in national policy, closer relations with China, etc.  This would be a good thing if the regional governments were not as corrupt and autocratic as the center, but that's the likely outcome.  Confederations don't tend to last, so I wouldn't think this will last either.

It won't likely be bloodless either.  It's pretty clear that Chechnya, at a minimum, will break away completely.  At least in all but name.  Whether this will trigger a third Chechen war or not depends a lot on the circumstances, but Moscow's inclination is to not let Chechnya go quietly.  I would expect violence there, however if Moscow has chewed up its ability to grab the weak and the poor for cannon fodder there's a possibility that they won't be able to do it (either at the start or after a short conflict).

Steve

think I posted this before but I think it is worth re-posting for this conversation. In the West we think of Chechnya when we think of a candidate to break away from Russia, because we remember the events that ironically enough helped Putin take power.

Another area to watch is Bashkortostan. I doubt most people in Europe or North America have even heard of this area. GTBT did an informative video covering this topic recently.

 

[Zeleban]

53 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Morale is definitively at the lowest it has ever been, with failing western support and a clearly in it to win it russia, that will not coup and surrender or revolt as everyone here keeps dreaming about.

It would be funny if next year we saw a change in the rhetoric of Western politics from “Ukraine must not lose” to “Russia must win.”

 

At least in this case, many people in the West would finally sleep peacefully: Russia's nuclear weapons remained in the possession of Russia itself.

But seriously, why are some people in the West not afraid that nuclear weapons are in the possession of a state that has repeatedly threatened to wipe out Western civilization, but instead are very afraid of the mythical "Warlord of Novosibirks"?

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

Ukrainian soldiers began to receive Tsukorok (sugar) drone detectors. This detector scans the radio air and, based on the characteristic frequency at which a certain type of drone is controlled, determines that there is a drone nearby and you need to hide.

Allegedly, this device is inexpensive, and its effectiveness has already been tested by soldiers on the front line.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Zeleban

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Go after the Russian shadow oil fleet. How Zelensky hasn’t written some letters of the marque is beyond me. What’s Russia gonna do, throw a tantrum?

Abolished by the ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Declaration_Respecting_Maritime_Law

... since 1856,

We've had discusssions about why Ukraine needs to adhere to International Law even when Russia flouts it. So not gonna happen.

Edited December 28, 2023 by paxromana

[kimbosbread]

7 minutes ago, paxromana said:

We've had discusssions about why Ukraine needs to adhere to International Law even when Russia flouts it. So not gonna happen.

Ukraine perhaps needs to, but non-state actors aligned with Ukraine do not. “Oh dear, you’ve lost another tanker?” For a few million you could equip a few RIBs with weapons, small drones, parrots etc. and cause some chaos.

If Russia wants to cause problems around the world, Russia can enjoy problems around the world.

[Zeleban]

Hey, it turns out there are sober-minded officials in the West

[billbindc]

15 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And I am just fine with that.  We have never had a nuclear nation lose centralized control and break up into sub-state structures.  The USSR collapsed into pre-existing states and Russia was able to keep control of those weapons, although it was touch and go for a bit.

A Russian coup that replaces the current regime with one that can exert central control is also fine.  So long as whoever takes over can have clean enough hands for us to live with.

A full scale free fall collapse has “worse” written all over it.  Take the strategic nukes out of the equation, maybe those can still be gripped.  But the tactical, chem and bio weapons are going to much harder to contain.  Most likely they would get used in whatever internal conflict/civil war that happens in Russia, however the risk of them falling into any number of non-state hands is simply too damned high.  They could be employed in Ukraine or any number of places to effect resulting in tens possibly hundreds of thousands dead.

A Russia slow collapse is manageable.  They will cough and clutter along as a Chinese satellite and eventually simply dissolve.  A fast one could be unmanageable, and I am sorry but not even Ukraine is worth that level of risk - especially when the hurt could come back on Ukraine even worse than they have now.

I guess if someone is going to start advocating for a quick Russian collapse then my question is “what is the stabilization plan”?  How do you explain away 6000 nuclear weapons?  Russia under Putin is contained.  I know it does not feel that way but Russia is not in the Baltics or any other NATO nation.  Some nuclear empowered warlord might not “get it”.

The corollary to my post is that there’s no argument that the Biden admin expects a Russian state collapse either. They have certainly reacted in ways that are intended to avoid escalation and weapons procurement/aid have been obtained under the constraints of the politics, process and bureaucracy but there’s simply no evidence that the White House has limited aid in order to avoid the Second Russian Civil War. Even in the case of Prigozhin’s mutiny…it was just that..a mutiny. In no sense was the idea that the country would break up and nobody in the executive branch was giving any signals that they thought it was possible.

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

Biden admin getting ready to bail?

“Still, Biden faces political peril if the war goes badly for the Ukrainians. Even if Republicans on the Hill are mainly responsible for holding up military aid”

World class Politico/Axios/The Hill take.

The reality is that various end states to the war have been in discussion since day 1, include the Ukrainian government and should be no surprise to anyone. The only thing different that Politico notes is that the EU is actively applying pressure on Moscow. A pivotal change, for those of us who remember…2020. 

 

[dan/california]

Pushing five times as hard just gets you five times the casualties.

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Ukraine perhaps needs to, but non-state actors aligned with Ukraine do not. “Oh dear, you’ve lost another tanker?” For a few million you could equip a few RIBs with weapons, small drones, parrots etc. and cause some chaos.

If Russia wants to cause problems around the world, Russia can enjoy problems around the world.

They would be Pirates not Privateers.

The countries they were basing in would have to turn an active blind eye ... and there aren't many non-western countries that would do that (probably not any that are reliablly corrupt ... stay bought) and western countries have this silly thing called 'the ruie of law' ...

[dan/california]

I can see the slightst trace of what hit it. Maybe it was tank main gun round?

[dan/california]

We aren't going to know what is really happening in Congress until they have been back for a week or so. The number of people crossing the Southern border just keeps going up, so the Biden Administration has incentive to just give the Republicans what they want there. The border can be completely dysfunctional in a different way for while. Write/call your Congressperson.

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, paxromana said:

They would be Pirates not Privateers.

The countries they were basing in would have to turn an active blind eye ... and there aren't many non-western countries that would do that (probably not any that are reliablly corrupt ... stay bought) and western countries have this silly thing called 'the ruie of law' ...

maybe make a deal with the Somalis    The CIA has been known to disregard international law on more than one occasion.

Russia seems to be having some other issues though.  This is about a week old but still relevant.

Russian Oil Headed to India Never Arrived, Stuck on Tankers (businessinsider.com)

Quote

 

Roughly five million barrels of Russian oil that were on the way to India never reached their destination, Bloomberg reported. 

The cargoes of Russia's Sokol grade crude were supposed to arrive over the past four weeks, but instead, the relevant tankers are reported to be idling at sea, miles out from their intended ports.

It's unclear why the ships haven't arrived, but the report said sanctions on sellers moving Russian crude above the $60 price cap set by G7 nations might be part of the explanation.

The US Treasury has sanctioned eight ships tied to the crude cargoes since October, with six of them owned by Russia's Sovcomflot PJSC.

 

 

[OBJ]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We aren't going to know what is really happening in Congress until they have been back for a week or so. The number of people crossing the Southern border just keeps going up, so the Biden Administration has incentive to just give the Republicans what they want there. The border can be completely dysfunctional in a different way for while. Write/call your Congressperson.

This

[LongLeftFlank]

44 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We aren't going to know what is really happening in Congress until they have been back for a week or so. The number of people crossing the Southern border just keeps going up, so the Biden Administration has incentive to just give the Republicans what they want there. The border can be completely dysfunctional in a different way for while. Write/call your Congressperson.

Not just the US. I visited Toronto last summer and walked 5kms along Queen Street W after bar close late one night. People still out were overwhelmingly African/Haitian, like 8 to 1. Not menacing, and I do hope that remains the case, but a *lot* different from my last visit in 2012.

Sorry for OT.

[Eddy]

41 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia seems to be having some other issues though

I read somewhere else recently that these issues were to do with problems with payments. Russia wants to be paid in roubles, India wants to pay in rupees. Lately the oil has been paid for with rupees which Russia can't convert into roubles because of sanctions and it needs that money in roubles.

Or it could be that Indian refineries are full and the ships are being used as floating storage until capacity becomes free. This happened last year from memory.

That said, I hope the businessinsider article is correct. About time we started clamping down on these sanction busters. 

[dan/california]

Quote

Chen Sheng was an officer serving the Qin Dynasty, famous for their draconian punishments. He was supposed to lead his army to a rendezvous point, but he got delayed by heavy rains and it became clear he was going to arrive late. The way I always hear the story told is this:

Chen turns to his friend Wu Guang and asks “What’s the penalty for being late?”

“Death,” says Wu.

“And what’s the penalty for rebellion?”

“Death,” says Wu.

“Well then…” says Chen Sheng.

At what point does Putin run into this problem in a major way?
 

Edited December 28, 2023 by dan/california