How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[keas66]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

I have a faint hope that Ukraine can still survive this winter (I don’t know what exactly influenced my opinion, objective reasons, or another bottle of Madeira I bought this evening). The key events, in my opinion, will unfold not on the front line, but in the rear. It all depends on whether our president will be able to change public opinion, destroy the influence of the Russian information machine on the consciousness of our citizens, and also restore the faith of our citizens in the armed forces of Ukraine. Zaluzhny previously expressed the opinion that Ukraine needs to return to last year’s level of citizen mobilization. 

However, Zelensky said at a press conference that another 500,000 mobilized Ukrainians are needed. This means that Ukraine's armed forces must increase by another third of their original strength. This clearly contradicts Zaluzhny’s assertion that everything is normal and no special mobilization measures are needed.

 

Be that as it may, I can be guided by the mobilization of my youth acquaintances from Krivoy Rog. They have significant abilities to corrupt any government bodies. Even if these guys were drafted into the army, then everything is very, very bad. So far, fortunately, none of my friends have been drafted into the army

I'm not sure what you think you are achieving by presenting these background views from the "normal" ?  Ukrainian citizen point of view  ?   Encouraging the idea that  the support of the Ukrainians for this fightback against the Russians is in fact collapsing and  now everyone just wishes to be done with the thing and return to being Citizens of the Greater Russian Empire ? . In other times and other places   comments such as yours would be deemed material evidence of working with the Enemy ?

 

Baffled .

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Jetpacks are no silver bullet, but compared to what is available today I'd wager it would be more cost effective and also more likely to succeed.

On the first point, a NATO armored thrust like the 47th Mech Brigade did was probably in the range of $25m worth of armored vehicles for each breach attempt (1-2 MBTs with breaching equipment, 4-5 IFVs).  Off the top of my head, I'd say the loss was about $15m and the mission only partially successful at best.

These jetpacks, even with bloated pricing, probably could come in at $500k each.  That's 50 packs for the same cost as the armored breaching force.  That means 50 much smaller, faster, and non-predictable moving targets in the air vs. 6 massive slow moving totally predictable targets on the ground.  Manpower is about the same for both.

The tactics I see are pretty straight forward.  Pick landing spots on the other side of the minefield, blast them with everything you have (artillery, air, drones, etc).  While this is going on fly a bunch of UGVs and drop them just as the flattening attacks cease.  UGVs' main role is to locate and distract surviving defenders more than kill them, but killing is definitely a good thing.  All the while the full range of UAVs fly in support.

While all of this fun is going on, squads of jetpack soldiers fly over the minefields and land in spots that ISR deems likely "safe".  If there is no place deemed safe, then repeat the above until the equation changes OR scrub the mission and try somewhere else.

When the jetpack soldiers land they do standard infantry stuff, however a couple of guys stay behind to deal with the packs.  Heavy lift copter drones are sent over to recover the packs one at a time.  As soon as the packs are back to friendly lines, they are refueled and reinforcements sent over.  This process is repeated until there is a good sized perimeter set up on the opposite side of the minefields.

All the while EVERY form of support is available for the jumpjet grunts to use to make sure the enemy stays far away or dies trying to get close.

Heavy lift drones bring ammo, food, and specialized equipment (e.g. EW, AD, etc.).  Wounded are evacuated using heavy lift drones.

At some point the bridgehead force signals it's looking good and old school breaching begins to work its way towards the other side to relieve the bridgehead.

All of this is pretty sound and technically feasible.  Theory says it should work or at least should work better than what is being done now.  Theory, though, is just that!

Steve

 

I like it!  Someone should put all this in a wargame.  Only quibble is that once the jet-infantry land they are more likely to become tactical C2 nodes for UGVs.  This will essentially allowed for solidification of the bridgehead at ranges need in today’s environment.  Then do a breach/bounce and hand off unmanned cloud to the breakout force.

I mean even 5 years ago this would be pure science fiction.  I can actually see it as a viable option now.

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I'm not sure what you think you are achieving by presenting these background views from the "normal" ?  Ukrainian citizen point of view  ?   Encouraging the idea that  the support of the Ukrainians for this fightback against the Russians is in fact collapsing and  now everyone just wishes to be done with the thing and return to being Citizens of the Greater Russian Empire ? . In other times and other places   comments such as yours would be deemed material evidence of working with the Enemy ?

 

Baffled .

I'm not sure that you fully understand my posts. Perhaps these are just Google Translate errors. But there may be something deeper preventing you from understanding my posts.

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I like it!  Someone should put all this in a wargame.  Only quibble is that once the jet-infantry land they are more likely to become tactical C2 nodes for UGVs.  This will essentially allowed for solidification of the bridgehead at ranges need in today’s environment.  Then do a breach/bounce and hand off unmanned cloud to the breakout force.

I mean even 5 years ago this would be pure science fiction.  I can actually see it as a viable option now.

I mean its nuts, but the proven solutions have been proven not to work. The other huge advantage would be to attack all the layers of the trench system at the same time, so all the positions that usually support each other are to busy with their own problems. The step i haven't seen tried but seems very doable would be to have heavy lift UAVs lay the MICLIC charges. So instead of having an insanely expensive specialized armored vehicle deploying a thousand feet of charge with questionable accuracy, have UAVs do it in fifty meter increments, or whatever they can carry.

Edit: the other trick would be if the jet packs could fly themselves back. So that the instant on soldier hits the ground, the pack leaves to get the next one without bleeping around.

Edit: One more to add, the packs can obviously something in the range of a hundred kilos, a remotely controlled one could set a bunker busting charge down more or less within a foot of where you wanted it. One more way to leverage the tech a ruin the bad guys whole day.

Edited December 19, 2023 by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Zaluzhny previously expressed the opinion that Ukraine needs to return to last year’s level of citizen mobilization. 

However, Zelensky said at a press conference that another 500,000 mobilized Ukrainians are needed. This means that Ukraine's armed forces must increase by another third of their original strength. 

This clearly contradicts Zaluzhny’s assertion that everything is normal and no special mobilization measures are needed.

Be that as it may, I can be guided by the mobilization of my youth acquaintances from Krivoy Rog. They have significant abilities to corrupt any government bodies. Even if these guys were drafted into the army, then everything is very, very bad. So far, fortunately, none of my friends have been drafted into the army

Can you link to some recent articles or documentation (even if they're in Ukrainian) on the details of civil mobilisation.... as in, how it's supposed to be working, how many people, etc?

...I don't need more gripefests or rumours about scoundrels buying their way out or running overseas. I don't doubt it's a problem but we have no way to scale it without an idea of what the nation is trying to achieve.

I totally agree that Ukraine should have had at least 500,000 more men and women enrolled in TD reserve units and trained up in rudimentary skills by last winter.

[kimbosbread]

Instead of a jetpack, use a heavy lift quad/octocopter. Should cut the cost a lot. Same platform for manned, unmanned where it basically has a payload attachment to carry a supply container, a UGV or an infrantryman.

The soldier shouldn’t have the lug the whole thing around; just clips in gets whisked to their destination at very low altitude and then the drone flies back to swap batteries/fuel and pick up the next soldier/UGV/supply.

EDIT: Obviously they’ll be autonomous

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Edit: the other trick would be if the jet packs could fly themselves back. So that the instant on soldier hits the ground, the pack leaves to get the next one without bleeping around.

EDIT2: The interesting thing is if you have on-demand organic airlift for small groups of infantry that can move them say 5-10km with full combat load in a few minutes. Is maneuver back?

Edited December 19, 2023 by kimbosbread

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, kimbosbread said:

Instead of a jetpack, use a heavy lift quad/octocopter. Should cut the cost a lot. Same platform for manned, unmanned where it basically has a payload attachment to carry a supply container, a UGV or an infrantryman.

The soldier shouldn’t have the lug the whole thing around; just clips in gets whisked to their destination at very low altitude and then the drone flies back to swap batteries/fuel and pick up the next soldier/UGV/supply.

Exactly my thinking.  basically drone helos that can carry ~100kg load for a ~10-20 kilometers round trip.  Drone drops off & automatically returns to base go get more soldiers or supplies and to recharge.  Drone doesn't even have to be electric, could be gasoline powered.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Instead of a jetpack, use a heavy lift quad/octocopter. Should cut the cost a lot. Same platform for manned, unmanned where it basically has a payload attachment to carry a supply container, a UGV or an infrantryman.

The soldier shouldn’t have the lug the whole thing around; just clips in gets whisked to their destination at very low altitude and then the drone flies back to swap batteries/fuel and pick up the next soldier/UGV/supply.

EDIT: Obviously they’ll be autonomous

 

Yes, heavy lift rotary copters could do the same thing and less expensively than a jetpack.  But is it sexier?  I say it is not!

Seriously though, the heavy lift rotary copter would have to be changed so that the passenger would be the one steering it, not someone else.  EW threat alone makes that wise.  Aside from that, nobody is going to have a better sense of how to maneuver and fly than the guy strapped to the ride.

The modifications to make a heavy lift rotary copter flyable by a passenger is pretty trivial.  It also has a much lower heat signature compared to the jetpack.

Having said that, there are probably some advantages the pack has over the rotary copter.  Speed?  Durability?  I don't have a clue.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Having said that, there are probably some advantages the pack has over the rotary copter.  Speed?  Durability?  I don't have a clue.

The compactness of the jetpack could be useful in some missions. If the demos is any indication you could probably land it right on a balcony, or a narrow bit of deck on a ship. But those seem more like a special ops anti terrorists operation than a brigade level new model airborne assault.

[Zeleban]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Can you link to some recent articles or documentation (even if they're in Ukrainian) on the details of civil mobilisation.... as in, how it's supposed to be working, how many people, etc?

no, I am not ready to provide a link to a document that indicates the direct number of Ukrainian military personnel who are currently performing their duties in the war. I can only say, referring to recent speeches by the President and the Minister of Defense, that the total number of Ukrainian military personnel is more than 1,100,000 people. While the number of people directly performing their military duty on the front line is about 450,000 people.

 

For example, the TOTAL composition of the French armed forces as of 2022 is 203,250

[Battlefront.com]

Here's an example of a heavy lift drone that can lift a Human.  Add extra capacity to lift 100# of gear and we have something that could be deployed tomorrow.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Thanks @Zeleban, I am not trying to 'assign you homework', just curious if you had a source ready to hand.

Edited December 19, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

23 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Can you link to some recent articles or documentation (even if they're in Ukrainian) on the details of civil mobilisation.... as in, how it's supposed to be working, how many people, etc?

In the event of a confrontation with a country like Russia, the more people the better. 

I would be glad if my old friends were drafted into the armed forces. This would mean that the leadership of my country perceives the threat adequately

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The compactness of the jetpack could be useful in some missions. If the demos is any indication you could probably land it right on a balcony, or a narrow bit of deck on a ship. But those seem more like a special ops anti terrorists operation than a brigade level new model airborne assault.

Landing... yeah, choice of landing zone appears to be a major advantage to the jetpack.  You could land (uncomfortably) in a wooded thicket with a jetpack, but not with a rotary blade copter.  Jetpack and soldier would survive, not sure either would with the copter.

The other one is you'd have to rig the copter to fly the soldier tethered for this to be viable.  I am not sure how much twisting and turning a tethered soldier has to do to really screw up the copter's ability to operate smoothly.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

no, I am not ready to provide a link to a document that indicates the direct number of Ukrainian military personnel who are currently performing their duties in the war. I can only say, referring to recent speeches by the President and the Minister of Defense, that the total number of Ukrainian military personnel is more than 1,100,000 people. While the number of people directly performing their military duty on the front line is about 450,000 people.

 

For example, the TOTAL composition of the French armed forces as of 2022 is 203,250

The question is... did Zelensky really say he wants to raise the total armed services by 500,000 or did he say something like "we need to raise the frontline force to 500,000" or might he have said "we need 500,000 new recruits to replace those rotating out as well as creating a bigger force".

Examining the source of the statement would clarify things.

Steve

[fireship4]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's an example of a heavy lift drone that can lift a Human.  Add extra capacity to lift 100# of gear and we have something that could be deployed tomorrow.

Awesome.  You could have soldiers stand on top and go into battle hands free and spitting lead.  IVAN DON'T SURF!

Almost as cool as my vision of a headless boston dynamics cavalry (with shielding for a sir's legs and torso) being ridden around by deliriously happy dragoon regiments. 

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's an example of a heavy lift drone that can lift a Human.  Add extra capacity to lift 100# of gear and we have something that could be deployed tomorrow.

Steve

Main advantage of jet packs is likely size (and possibly speed).  They are a lot smaller than this vehicle and pretty quick.  But why not have both and use this for lifting equipment and supplies?  This whole thing is basically a vertical flanking like air assault or airborne but distributed.

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The question is... did Zelensky really say he wants to raise the total armed services by 500,000 or did he say something like "we need to raise the frontline force to 500,000" or might he have said "we need 500,000 new recruits to replace those rotating out as well as creating a bigger force".

Examining the source of the statement would clarify things.

Steve

Hit mainstream about an hour ago:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-s-military-asks-for-additional-450-000-people-to-be-mobilized-zelenskyy-1.6693711

[Bearstronaut]

I guess Heinlein was pretty prescient when he came up with the mobile infantry concept.

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

I guess Heinlein was pretty prescient when he came up with the mobile infantry concept.

 

Ha ha, you ninjaed me by like 30 seconds!!!!

(PS, it is WAY better in German)

[kimbosbread]

24 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Almost as cool as my vision of a headless boston dynamics cavalry (with shielding for a sir's legs and torso) being ridden around by deliriously happy dragoon regiments. 

Neal Stephenson called it a “Chevaline”

[kimbosbread]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Main advantage of jet packs is likely size (and possibly speed).  They are a lot smaller than this vehicle and pretty quick.  But why not have both and use this for lifting equipment and supplies?  This whole thing is basically a vertical flanking like air assault or airborne but distributed.

Disadvantage is fuel consumption, heat, cost/servicing and explodability. If you need to drop your cargo, have a tether.

Interestingly enough the guy behind Kiva was researching autorotation for landing large Quadcopters (ie rotating around one rotor), which could be interesting from a saftey perspective.

Edited December 19, 2023 by kimbosbread

[kimbosbread]

On-topic, insofar as future warfare looks to be lifted from cyberpunk novels of the 80s and 90s: NASA has all beat with Dragonfly, which is a nuclear-powered drone planned to land on Titan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(spacecraft)

[LongLeftFlank]

59 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Landing... yeah, choice of landing zone appears to be a major advantage to the jetpack.  You could land (uncomfortably) in a wooded thicket with a jetpack, but not with a rotary blade copter.

 

So Steve, in spite of your best efforts, it seems CM: Space Lobsters of Doom© will -- yet again! -- frontrun military reality by about 2-3 years.

 

[danfrodo]

I think the jet packs are only a small part of the operation, with the drone-copters doing the vast majority of the work.  First of all, they can easily return home and change from troop transport to supply transport and can also remove wounded better than any system ever.  I am happy to see that kimbosbread and I agree on something for a change