How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[acrashb]

More concrete indications that the West is waking up:

 

 

[White2Golf]

 

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Add that to what seems to be a cultural absence of safety, either organized or individual, and you get fun stuff like this happening.

Steve

Dropping from hyperspace/lurking to affirm this statement here.   Did a few joint patrols in Bosnia, early 2000's with some VDV guys riding BTR's.  Oy Vey.   They went back to our base for chow once.  More than one of their dudes killed the clearing barrel coming in.  Woof.  

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, White2Golf said:

They went back to our base for chow once.  More than one of their dudes killed the clearing barrel coming in.  Woof.  

Uh, could someone translate, please?

[JonS]

Chow = food/lunch

Clearing barrel = when you enter a base you go through a process of unloading your weapons, ensuring they're unloaded, and proving to others they're unloaded. Usually it's routine - remove the magazine, cock the weapon, inspect the chamber, fire the action in a safe direction which is usually a sand filled barrel to trap any errant rounds. Sometimes its embarrassing if you get the sequence mixed up, which seems to be what happened here - the negative peer pressure that lands on you for doing that is intense, and lasts a long time. That's because occasionally its fatal if you get mixed up AND neglect to point it in a safe direction.

Getting it wrong is due to laziness, extreme fatigue, and always poor discipline.

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by JonS

[Splinty]

33 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Uh, could someone translate, please?

The RU guys went to the US Dining Facility. As they entered they were required to clear their weapons. A few of them forgot to clear the round from their chambers, and accidently fired said round into the sand filled metal barrel provided for just that purpose. Doing so is frowned upon.

[Grossman]

An angle how things may turn out: 2024 may be a holding year;  a year of consolidation. ( although a test may come in January as the Danes are due to inspect Russian oil tankers using the Danish Strait). The US and the EU tighten sanctions, and increase armaments production. Training continues on the F16. Biden and the EU are still able to get substantial amounts of weaponry to UKR but not enough to make a difference. The EU and US harden their position on the war that must be won. The Democrats win big in November, controlling all US arms of government. The US then commits to a major rearming of UKR along with air cover. The big test comes in 2025. 

[cesmonkey]

55 minutes ago, Grossman said:

An angle how things may turn out: 2024 may be a holding year;  a year of consolidation. ( although a test may come in January as the Danes are due to inspect Russian oil tankers using the Danish Strait). The US and the EU tighten sanctions, and increase armaments production. Training continues on the F16. Biden and the EU are still able to get substantial amounts of weaponry to UKR but not enough to make a difference. The EU and US harden their position on the war that must be won. The Democrats win big in November, controlling all US arms of government. The US then commits to a major rearming of UKR along with air cover. The big test comes in 2025. 

Perhaps, but the Democrats face a tough challenge keeping their Senate majority in 2024 based on which seats will be up for election:

 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Perhaps, but the Democrats face a tough challenge keeping their Senate majority in 2024 based on which seats will be up for election:

 

True but...a GOP Senate is going to be pretty friendly to arms for Ukraine. They are currently constrained by (and attempting to politic around) the GOP House. 

[Joe982]

11 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

 

It seems Russians captured two Bradleys in working condition, and videos with them are flying everywhere in Mordor TV.

 

This is very bad news.  We don't know what happened but I hope it is not a case of Ukraine cracking.

 

 

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, JonS said:

Chow = food/lunch

Clearing barrel = when you enter a base you go through a process of unloading your weapons, ensuring they're unloaded, and proving to others they're unloaded. Usually it's routine - remove the magazine, cock the weapon, inspect the chamber, fire the action in a safe direction which is usually a sand filled barrel to trap any errant rounds. Sometimes its embarrassing if you get the sequence mixed up, which seems to be what happened here - the negative peer pressure that lands on you for doing that is intense, and lasts a long time. That's because occasionally its fatal if you get mixed up AND neglect to point it in a safe direction.

Getting it wrong is due to laziness, extreme fatigue, and always poor discipline.

 

Or a learning disability.  True story (put your helmets on), one of my troops in Bosnia put a round between the guys legs in front of him clearing his weapon…on the first night.  He cocked, then took the mag off and fired.

No one got hurt but of course he was charged.  At his trial the CO asked him to demonstrate that he knew how to clear a weapon.  The guy did the exact same thing! - thank god it wasn’t loaded.  The kid has some sort of mental block.  He ended up getting fined and doing 10 days CB’d and old-school punishment duty.  Teenagers and guns, never boring.

[kimbosbread]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta be a little bit skeptical here.  So basically the negotiation is for Russia to admit total and complete defeat - not sure that is going to go over.  Or face a stronger Ukraine backed by what is looking more and more like a shaky defence industrial and political base within the US and Europe.  For Russia there is no “choice” here.

I mean, hey cool if you can pull it off but this is not really a strategy.  It is more of a political statement and posturing.  In fact for Ukraine to be truly “stronger” the focus should be defence industry in Ukraine or Ukrainian owned/controlled.  Building a long term Ukrainian defence industry that can shore up this war is far more likely to make Russia think.

Yeah, this smells like “Oh crap, our hope of Russia not losing too hard was stupid and wrong, we didn’t send Ukraine enough weapons, and we lost an election, and now we are trying to look like we are competent”.

Kimbo’s razor: Never attribute that to strategy that can be explained by a complete lack of strategy.

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Or a learning disability.  True story (put your helmets on), one of my troops in Bosnia put a round between the guys legs in front of him clearing his weapon…on the first night.  He cocked, then took the mag off and fired.

No one got hurt but of course he was charged.  At his trial the CO asked him to demonstrate that he knew how to clear a weapon.  The guy did the exact same thing! - thank god it wasn’t loaded.  The kid has some sort of mental block.  He ended up getting fined and doing 10 days CB’d and old-school punishment duty.  Teenagers and guns, never boring.

Thank goodness no one was hurt.

Sad thing is forget the right procedure for clearing a weapon. Some people don't even know that ejecting a magazine is not enough to clear a semi-automatic pistol. I have heard stories of some people killing themselves because of this mistake.

I own a few firearms and I support civilian ownership of firearms, but this all reminds me of how important firearms education is.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Joe982 said:

This is very bad news.  We don't know what happened but I hope it is not a case of Ukraine cracking.

Well, they already lost several dozens so no big deal in itself. Old Bradleys seem one of most favoured vehicle types in AFU and most feared by Russians. Muscovites TV grasped second wind and is often doing rounds in working Western equipment; they visibly feared it a lot before the offensive, and now the spell is broken. Long are the days when Soloviov made entire episode of his show staring on empty NLAW case like he would be touched by Gods, who send it to him in a dream.

[Harmon Rabb]

AFU HIMARS doing its thing. Filmed by a RU drone.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

AFU HIMARS doing its thing. Filmed by a RU drone.

Ah, this takes me back to the early days of the Russian Misvasion.  You know, when they would show a grainy shot of some Ukrainian vehicle or infantry group, then grainy footage of artillery landing (sometimes not even in the same area) along with a claim that Nazi scum was destroyed.  This has the same feel!

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/08/ukraine-russia-war-draft-dodgers/

This article seems to be all Zeleban.

[cesmonkey]

 

[Haiduk]

Maryinka area - Russians have sent forward T-55 VBIED with 6 tons of HE, but it couldn't reach UKR positions - impressive nuke as result

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

53 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Maryinka area - Russians have sent forward T-55 SVBIED with 6 tons of HE, but it couldn't reach UKR positions - impressive nuke as result

 

SVBIED or VBIED? Until now these were as far as Im aware all remote controlled /brick on the pedal tech.

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Kraft said:

SVBIED or VBIED? Until now these were as far as Im aware all remote controlled /brick on the pedal tech.

VBIED of course, fixed

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, this takes me back to the early days of the Russian Misvasion.  You know, when they would show a grainy shot of some Ukrainian vehicle or infantry group, then grainy footage of artillery landing (sometimes not even in the same area) along with a claim that Nazi scum was destroyed.  This has the same feel!

Steve

Video kinda makes me nervous instead of confident.  RA should not be capable of rapid CB fires at this point due to attrition.  And what in the sweet seven hells is a HIMAR doing within range of CB in the first place?!  GMLRS has a min range of 70kms and should be well back.  I am pretty sure US has supplied the ER versions at 150kms…so what is that system doing 10-15 kms from the front?

I am sure the editors had something else in mind but that video is not really good news story.

[Ultradave]

On 12/7/2023 at 9:49 PM, Vet 0369 said:

LOL, while I understand and sympathize with you, I live in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Massachusetts, so ALL of our Federal Representatives and Senators, and most of our State Representatives and State Senators are Democrats, and I refuse to associate with any of them since Ted Kennedy left the Senate. He at least would reach across the aisle and negotiate with the Republicans “for the good of the country” as would the Republicans of that era. Today, EVERYONE’s philosophy is “my way or the highway.” In both parties!

I live in Rhode Island and my Senators (Reed and Whitehouse) are both very competent and reasonable men, willing to work to get things done. Sheldon Whitehouse, especially, is almost always the smartest and most prepared in the room. I would not want to testify in front of a committee he was on if I was on shaky ground. I'm happy with my representation. My House representative recently changed, as the old one, who I really liked, retired (Jim Langevin - the guy with the interesting wheelchair that somehow stands up on 2 wheels). The new guy is young and an unknown - Democrat - it is RI after all.

Dave

[Haiduk]

UKR servicemen warn that Russians more and more use newest night FPV drones with cheap NV cameras, which allow to operate in dusk or night on 10-15 km behind frontline. For example on Bakhmut direction on the one of frontline section each night there are reports about 1-2 night FPV attacks. But several days ago Russians conducted "NV swarm drone attack" on one of directions and they could take out about dozen our soldiers and four pick-ups. This is very dangerous tendency - we also use night FPVs, but this is mostly Mavics with thermal cameras and they are too expensive for such single usage, when Russia already ordered direrctly in Chima dozen thousands of cheap FPV with NV cameres, much more cheaper, than thermal. And since some time this can cause huge problem for out logistic, because most of movements in close rear is conducting in darkness. So, our soldiers demand from officials immediately to find solution for quick development and mass production of EW assets, capable to supress video channel of drones.

We already have some working models, but not all of them showed itself good, and all of them developed for some particular tasks. ANd both we and Russians already try to pass on new control frequensies, so this race can be endless.

More universal solution will have bigger dimensions and development of suchg things demand many money, qualified developers, IT-specialists etc. But I have met more than once stories like this: "You came to enlistment center - by free-will or being mobilized and say - I xxxx specialist, I know English, I have experience in YYYY, I will be effective in ZZZZZ. Enlistmet officer says, oh, that good. You come to training center and became usual riflelman to assault next tree-plant since a month" 

Here is diagram, from where Russia imports spare parts for own drones production (it's unknown either assembled drones included or not)

China - 54.29 %

Taiwan - 20 %

Honkong - 5.71 %

UK - 4.29 %

Turkey - 4.29 %

USA - 2.86 % (special thanks to NVIDIA for their AI video chips for Lancets)

Canada - 2.86 %

Chili - 1.43 %

Bulgaria - 1.43 %

Uzbekistan - 1.43 %

So, China is a growing monster of drones production and spare parts and I afraid, western countries one time can encounter with painful reality...

Edited December 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]