How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

43 minutes ago, acrashb said:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/10/29/trenches-and-tech-on-ukraines-southern-front

Major says he has lost 15% of his colleagues over the last few months.

Ukraine is also hampered by the fact that its drones are still largely assembled and paid for by volunteers.

the Russians have imposed a 10km no-tank zone behind the front 

[Russian] jamming boxes create high-energy fields around an object so that signals around it stop working. Attacking such equipment, without video feedback, is a difficult if not impossible task. Ukrainian units by and large don’t yet have the same technology.

Those in [UA] units [in Zaporizhe] such as his own have more chance of dying than surviving. “Seventy-thirty. Some don’t even see their first battle.” 

Very important article, do not miss it.

Edited November 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Butschi]

33 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't think this is it, exactly. The strategy is to get Russia to realize it isn't a superpower anymore without tipping it into an infinitely worse replay of the disintegration of Yugoslavia. The problem is that there are two competing bad assumptions that underly this strategy.

The main problem is that this is no strategy. It is just a goal. A strategy would tell us how to get there and I don't think we have really figured out one that comes with a reasonable price tag attached.

[Butschi]

23 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

(more anecdata though: I recently I had a Linkedin friend trying to find a 30 year old Ukrainian engineer a job in Canada and I was tempted to ask why he wasn't at home serving his country?)

On the other hand you might ask the question if someone should be obliged to serve - i.e. die for - his country and probably on a strip of land that means nothing to him just because fate willed it that he was born a) on the wrong side of the border and b) with a Y chromosome.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

On the other hand you might ask the question if someone should be obliged to serve - i.e. die for - his country and probably on a strip of land that means nothing to him just because fate willed it that he was born a) on the wrong side of the border and b) with a Y chromosome.

 

Well sure, so long as there are prosperous nations willing to take in Ukrainian exiles as metics, then a lot of them will make that choice. I suppose that's part of what Putin is counting on, although I have no idea who is going to settle the empty lands: Chechens maybe?

If not, they need to fight and bleed for their homeland, or else accept that they and their compatriots will once more become thralls of the Muscovites.

BTW, Western nations looking for a source of blonde white immigrants (as an alternative to, umm, immigrants who don't look like that) is a standard tankie meme, a cynical variant on 'fighting to the last Ukrainian'.

There is some precedent though. The French did quite well out of the revolutions of the mid-19th century, bringing in waves of Austro-Hungarian and Italian revolutionaries who rapidly Gallicised. The anticommunist Polish exiles of WW2 rapidly became British, etc.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

We were never going to brick up Russia in this world.  FFS, China and India did not even blink...and they never were.  No western power is so invested in Ukraine that they are going to start trade wars with China and India, along with Russia.  So we pretty much did what we could and the damage will settle in over time.  Industrial capacity plays but the RA has been on a downward slide since the beginning of this thing.  Plus you can build all the tanks, crewing them with people that know what they are doing is something else entirely.  

What sanctions likely did do?

- Set conditions for future negotiation.

- Re-wire western economies away from Russia over time.

- Put pressure on an already fragile Russian economy, which will put us in position for the next war.

- Erode the RA in the backfield and expose it to vulnerable dependencies (with NK, FFS)

They were never going to be the magic Jiu-jitsu move to make Russia tap out in a year or two, anymore than Abrams and Bradleys were going to drive the RA from the field.  Choking out Russia was never in the cards.  Hurting them?  Sure.  Compressing over time. Absolutely.

All very true, but are we sure West communicated limited scope and purpose of sanctions to Ukrainian public; and did they received the message? Because now we seem to having perception problems about limits of help these people can reliabaly receive. And I know quite plenty measured and knowledgable guys, also former militaries tracking this war from the start (from UA and outside), who simply cannot understand why big business still sell Russians precise machine stuff or top-end electronics used in EW warfare (last case given by Steve, there are more) or how muscovite tourists can continue flock to Europe like they did before the war, with some minor additional difficulties. Mind you- last thing is a status symbol for Russian upper middle class, probably far more important than in our societies (another failure to understand cultural significance of some feature). I am not calling to harm our econimies too much ofc. but we should communicate strategy behind it much better, I believe; the hope sanctions will do more work was quite widespread in UA for last two years, despite logic. So we should be frank with UA from the start in this respect: sanctions are chiefly for post-war bargain, not to cripple their direct war effort in  significant way. Otherwise they risk morale crisis. It naturally is part of the larger problem you descibed before, namely incoherence and lack of defined strategy.

[danfrodo]

53 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And please, can we take a pass on the kneejerk 'surebutthemobikshaveitfarworse' whataboutism. Until enough mobiks actually quit or mutiny over the 'far worse', it's cold comfort to the Ukrainian guys.

I was thinking about this subject this morning.  Until we see lots of RU mass surrenders or mutinies, things will probably not change.  I'll define mass surrender as 10+ soldiers at once.  We'd need lots of those. 

Going into last winter I was sure the mobiks would be combat ineffective due to bad gear, bad field practice, bad supplies, bad commanders, lack of rotation & rest.  But it turns out one doesn't need to be very combat effective to hold a hole when there's nowhere to else to go.   

Edited November 24, 2023 by danfrodo

[Tux]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Do you mean to stop communicating with my fellow countrymen?

No.  As our Left Flank said I’ll leave it for perhaps some of our other Ukrainian members to try and help.

 

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

My one true criticism of the West is incoherence, we do not really have a strategy here, so everyone is making up there own.

I find myself agreeing with this but mainly because I think it must be incredibly difficult to gather so many diverse Allies together to agree a strategy when all but one of them are not at war.  Having said that, surely if there was a coherent strategy we would absolutely not read about it in the tabloids; it would be a closely guarded secret to prevent knowledge of our end goals and strategy from being abused by Russia and others?

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The first bad assumption, some portion of the foreign policy blob is still convinced, despite all the evidence, that Russia can be brought to a rational analysis of the costs of continuing this war vs any possible gain. This faction is stuck in their convictions because they are on some level correct. On any rational basis Russia spending far, far more in Ukraine than it could ever hope to recoup. The notable problem is that the Russians simply don't seem to care. Indeed the have gotten at least ten thousand of of their own soldiers killed and wounded outside of Aviidka in the last few weeks in a crazed performative demonstration that they don't care about rational cost/benefit analysis  as most of the West understands it. I have been saying for months on end that rational autocrat would have declared victory and taken what he could get at the negotiating table at on May 1, 2022. Putin didn't do that, and has shown nothing but a determination to double down on an ever worse bet since.

The second bad assumption is that the Russian regime is weaker than it appears, and that we can win this thing without the real commitments of new resources. That just doesn't appear to be the case at this time. The eighteen months that have been dithered away by this attack of wishful thinking may be VERY costly. The problem with supplying Ukraine enough artillery ammunition is not money, resources, or expertise. It has been, and continues to be, at least in to many places, the unwillingness to make a medium term commitment of a few billion dollars that might look extravagant if the Russian army suddenly does come apart at the seems. I would simply point out that that would be a truly wonderful problem to have.

Is the third bad assumption that the West has a magic button it can press to quickly make that wonderful situation come about?

I think we should remember that, just like The_Capt, we’re all baffled as to how the Russian Army is still functioning properly.  I’m personally in two minds as to whether we are still in a state of things ‘going slow before they go fast’ (and a collapse is just around that next corner, for reals this time) or whether we’re all culture-blind and missing some peculiar Russian meme that will keep them going for a long time to come. Either way we (Ukraine and the West) basically have achieved what our initial strategy probably was:  something akin to “steadily and smoothly ramp up the pressure and support to avoid the Russian Federation catching fire while enabling Ukraine to bleed the Russian Army until conditions are set for it to collapse”.  Russia hasn’t gone all Yugoslavia and the conditions appear pretty well set for a collapse to happen.

Maybe we can be self aware enough to forgive a few western tacticians for potentially also being a bit nonplussed.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Tux

[LongLeftFlank]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

But it turns out one doesn't need to be very combat effective to hold a hole when there's nowhere to else to go.   

But in this grim new 1917 paradigm of static warfare, isn't that mobik simply a 'useless eater' until he becomes a drone target, once the Ukrainians stop trying to take his hole?

...what I was thinking about earlier was the likely next wave of micro-antipersonnel weapons -- part mine, part drone, part robot dog, part sentry gun, part Furby, part whatever -- that make those meat assaults dead letters before they even finish climbing out of their holes.

Edited November 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

25 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

part mine, part drone, part robot dog, part sentry gun, part Furby, part whatever

To begin with, I recommend solving the problem of information security in Western countries. Many of you still refuse to understand that Russia has long been waging a war against your countries - an information war. To wage this war, missile attacks, thousands of tanks, hundreds of aircraft are not needed. Recent events show that Putin is very aware of the weaknesses of the West and knows how to exploit them. Otherwise, the NATO bloc will simply rot from the inside.

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, Tux said:

I think we should remember that, just like The_Capt, we’re all baffled as to how the Russian Army is still functioning properly.  I’m personally in two minds as to whether we are still in a state of things ‘going slow before they go fast’ (and a collapse is just around that next corner, for reals this time) or whether we’re all culture-blind and missing some peculiar Russian meme that will keep them going for a long time to come.

I don't think Russian culture is all that different than it has been for the last 100+ years, which means that it is both stubborn and resistant to change no matter how obvious the need for change is.  The West's concept of tolerance to the intolerable is wrong, in part, because the Russian people aren't technically tolerating these awful stuff as much as they view it being within the range of normal.

Putin and his autocratic nationalistic cronies have long framed contact with the West as being "corrupting".  It is one of the major reasons for Russia wanting Ukraine knocked down and under its boot heal.  Don't want Russians getting the idea that democracy works.

As I've been saying for more than a year now, I woefully underestimated how much the West had "corrupted" Russian culture.  Those who really understood what Putin did left the country or are keeping their heads down because they are a minority that is easily identified and repressed.  Since my hopes for a near term Russian collapse were largely based on this segment creating a lot of headaches, the fact they did not undermined the possibilities of regime collapse.

That being said, there are historical examples of Russia collapsing.  We've discussed them at length.  Despite the military calamity being unparalleled in post WW2 Russian history, it obviously isn't enough.  The majority of Russians need to have their economic lifestyles greatly reduced before collapse is possible.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

41 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

To begin with, I recommend solving the problem of information security in Western countries. Many of you still refuse to understand that Russia has long been waging a war against your countries - an information war. To wage this war, missile attacks, thousands of tanks, hundreds of aircraft are not needed. Recent events show that Putin is very aware of the weaknesses of the West and knows how to exploit them. Otherwise, the NATO bloc will simply rot from the inside.

Sorry, 'solving the problem of information security' as in imposing censorship?

The Committee for Public Safety? The House Un-American Activities Committee?

Look, Russia does what it can, no doubt (and mainly without effect), but the troubles of the West are overwhelmingly of our own making, and not within Putin's or Xi's control.

P.S.  And not to drag this thread back into the pointless swamp of politics, but IMHO, the A Number One on the list of 'troubles of the West overwhelmingly of our own making' is that it is only China that is able to do sh*t like this today:

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/23/solar-module-prices-may-reach-0-10-w-by-end-2024/

Last project I contracted out, it was USD 26 cents, and that was record beating low! And that after huge plant fires and a polysilicon shortage.  Say what you like about China guys, and I've been a China cynic for years. But that is pure Godzilla-sized scale economy in action.... Arsenal of Democracy level mojo, without the Democracy part.

Now just take out solar modules and put in 'cheap FPV drones'.  Then see if you don't feel an uncomfortable feeling in your guts.

Edited November 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Kraft]

26 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry, 'solving the problem of information security' as in imposing censorship?

The Committee for Public Safety? The House Un-American Activities Committee?

 

A simple step that is a few years below 1984 would be to just block any and all political party "donations" coming from some unknown strongly moved spectator, that cares so ever deeply about <insert country> politics as to involve himself in their funding campaigns, while residing in russia. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Kraft

[Zeleban]

25 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The Committee for Public Safety? The House Un-American Activities Committee?

Yes, yes, I completely forgot how Europeans criticize Ukraine for banning the activities of some television channels bought by Putin’s puppet, Viktor Medvedchuk, to spread Kremlin propaganda. There was a lot of hype: “there is no freedom of speech in Ukraine at all” or “They don’t know what pluralism of opinions is.” By the way, how do you feel about the ban in a number of European countries on the broadcasting of the Russa Today TV channel? Do you think this is the result of the activities of the Committee for Public Safety or The House Un-American Activities Committee?

[LongLeftFlank]

31 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

By the way, how do you feel about the ban in a number of European countries on the broadcasting of the Russa Today TV channel?

 

 

I don't know the first thing about any of that, so I'm just going to do my LLF thing and good naturedly meme you. 

Edited November 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank
Swapping Leonard Cohen tracks. I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons....

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Definitely a good outcome for Ukraine, for a country with no navy, to carve out a corridor for 3rd party shipping against what majority opinion considers a powerful country one tier below superpower (public opinion) is a major achievement.

 

Since we are having a kind of retrospective of the year, I think it should be remembered and not forgotten that at sea Ukraine did pretty damn well this year. Especially for a country that like you already pointed out does not really have a navy in the traditional sense of what we think of as a navy. It was very interesting to watch this year.

Speaking of which, here is a new video of a Ukrainian drone hitting Putin's prized bridge this summer.

 

[Beleg85]

Interesting clip- reportedly Russians dug a tunnel and detonated a mine in Avdiivka area, after which assault team came out of it and stormed Ukrianian trenches. So mine warfare is back too?

56 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

To begin with, I recommend solving the problem of information security in Western countries. Many of you still refuse to understand that Russia has long been waging a war against your countries - an information war. To wage this war, missile attacks, thousands of tanks, hundreds of aircraft are not needed. Recent events show that Putin is very aware of the weaknesses of the West and knows how to exploit them. Otherwise, the NATO bloc will simply rot from the inside.

How would like to "solve it"? Everybody in charge is more than aware that Russia wages hybrid war against  NATO for a long time and open societies will fall pray to it to some extent. That's their nature.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Claim of successful Russian mining operation at Avdiivka:

I have been waiting for this. Return to WW I fighting methods is now almost complete. Only the gas is missing. 

[Zeleban]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

How would like to "solve it"?

At least this is a solvable issue, and if you really want to solve it and think carefully about its solution, then this problem can be solved. Unlike the artificial intelligence of the battlefield manager or the robotic dogs going on the attack.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry, 'solving the problem of information security' as in imposing censorship?

The Committee for Public Safety? The House Un-American Activities Committee?

Why not? As recently as the Covid pandemic anti-vax communication was suppressed in a million of formal and less formal ways. The West is no virgin which would be suddenly debauched by this.

BTW from today's perspective there is no doubt that McCarthy was mostly right.

[Beleg85]

16 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

At least this is a solvable issue, and if you really want to solve it and think carefully about its solution, then this problem can be solved. Unlike the artificial intelligence of the battlefield manager or the robotic dogs going on the attack.

Wait, we are talking about traditional espionage, subversion in mass media or political influences? These are all very different things: first is by definition in shadows we know very little, second belongs chiefly to multi-national media platforms (hello Elon) and about third: you cannot arrest people, without solid evidence, only because they have different opinion about international or economical issues. In many Western countries  a lot has been done to counter Russian infowars. As far as I know Russia Today and similar cancer was quite violently removed too; no major outlet, even left-lib ones (BBC, Guardian etc.) are sufling Muscovite propaganda without checking it twice. Unless you mean some form of active censorship, but that will not bed well with most of Western countries  and would likely be counter-productive from UA standpoint anyway.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[LongLeftFlank]

23 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Why not? As recently as the Covid pandemic anti-vax communication was suppressed in a million of formal and less formal ways. The West is no virgin which would be suddenly debauched by this.

BTW from today's perspective there is no doubt that McCarthy was mostly right.

Quod custodiet ipsos custodes?

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Wait, we are talking about traditional espionage, subversion in mass media or political influences? These are all very different things: first is by definition in shadows we know very little, second belongs chiefly to multi-national media platforms (hello Elon) and about third: you cannot arrest people, without solid evidence, only because they have different opinion about international or economical issues. In many Western countries  a lot has been done to counter Russian infowars. As far as I know Russia Today and similar cancer was quite violently removed too; no major outlet, even left-lib ones (BBC, Guardian etc.) are sufling Muscovite propaganda without checking it twice. Unless you mean some form of active censorship, but that will not bed well with most of Western countries  and would likely be counter-productive from UA standpoint anyway.

Yes, this.  Russia's long standing mainstream media influence has been on the decline for many years, but especially since the war started.  What remains are voices that are definitely sympathetic to Putin's message, but aren't likely directed by him.  Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson, for example.  They both idolize authoritarian types, including Putin, but this is an example of alignment of values and beliefs.  How can that be shut down without becoming a police state?

The big threat the West doesn't come from Moscow based disinformation, it comes from grass roots social media extremists.  Russia is more than happy to help amplify and stir up trouble, but if Russia were suddenly cut off from the world completely (an impossibility) these extremists would still be operating to undermine pluralist and rule of law societies just as much as they are now.  In other words, crazy people and con artists exist independent of Russian influence.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Why not? As recently as the Covid pandemic anti-vax communication was suppressed in a million of formal and less formal ways.

And it was completely ineffective.  At best it might have reduced the numbers of people spouting off nonsense, but not much more than that.

28 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

BTW from today's perspective there is no doubt that McCarthy was mostly right.

No, he was totally wrong.  Yes the "Reds are out to get us" was, and still is, true.  But McCarthy's paranoia that every school teacher, journalist, actor, etc. that held anything other than right of center views was a paid agent of Russia or China was utter nonsense.  And we also saw racism and antisemitism were the real motivations behind many of the people specifically targeted.

So no, McCarthy was about as "right" as a person running around with a tinfoil hat is "right" about aliens.

Steve

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

s recently as the Covid pandemic anti-vax communication was suppressed in a million of formal and less formal ways.

anti-vax 'communication'.  You mean baseless lies and misinformation?  

And what suppression?  At least in the US the lies were huge and everywhere and now there's big uptake in people not getting vaccinated for everything, not just covid.  We've already seen, in the US, outbreaks in children of whooping cough in anti-vax clusters.  And even a little polio.  

UKR is at war for survival and is completely within it's rights to censor things.  In societies not under this kind of threat, I don't want censorship.  I think it's best to counter lies w truth, though sometimes it takes a lot of people getting polio for them to figure out the truth I suppose.

Edited November 24, 2023 by danfrodo

[LongLeftFlank]

23 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

anti-vax 'communication'.  You mean baseless lies and misinformation?  

It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So. (misattributed to Twain)

And no, this isn't advocating antivaxx.

...But the moment you or any other right thinker gets put in charge of defining The Truth and suppressing Falsehood, it's only a matter of time before you start legislating your own prejudices and falsehoods from the bench as well. Nobody is wise enough to know the boundary.

That's why we Westerners try to leave as much as possible up to individual conscience and choice, in spite of the many inefficiencies and risks that inhere in that.

Edited November 24, 2023 by LongLeftFlank