How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

This video got a shout-out in yesterday's ISW report:

Quote

Russian milbloggers continue to acknowledge a Ukrainian presence in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and complain that Russian forces are unable to suppress Ukrainian operations in the area.[8] A Russian milblogger claimed on November 21 that Ukrainian forces killed an entire Russian assault group near Krynky (30km northeast of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River).[9] A Russian insider source claimed on November 17 that a Ukrainian strike killed 76 Russian personnel in the 1st Battalion of the 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) attempting to conduct a “distraction maneuver” in Skadovskyi Raion, east bank Kherson Oblast on November 10.[10] A Russian soldier reportedly in the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) operating near Krynky claimed in a video amplified on November 21 that the Russian military is forcing personnel who are still recovering from wounds to conduct assaults and that there are three Ukrainian drones for each Russian soldier operating in the Krynky area.[11] A Russian milblogger published a letter purportedly from a Russian soldier operating near Krynky on November 21 who claimed that Russian forces in the Krynky area lack reconnaissance drones, slowing their movements and putting them at risk of Ukrainian attacks.[12] The purported Russian soldier claimed that Russian forces in the Krynky area also lacked fire support because artillery and mortar units quickly changed locations after firing “a few shots” in order to evade counterbattery fire.[13] The Russian soldier claimed that his unit has practically no interaction with other Russian units operating nearby and that the Russian command headquarters in the Kherson direction devises unsuccessful plans because the headquarters receives incorrect and delayed information.[14] The Russian soldier also claimed that the Russian command in the Kherson direction had failed to implement changes resulting in increased Ukrainian attacks.[15] A milblogger claimed that some Russian Telegram channels are unsuccessfully attempting to focus criticism of Russian operations in the Kherson direction toward Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky.[16] The milbloggers do not appear to be responding to Shoigu’s claims nor has ISW observed any significant changes in Kherson Oblast that would prompt these milblogger complaints.

From the video and from some other info that ISW presented, it seems there's an unusually profound (even by Russian standards) breakdown in military command and control.  This could explain why they've made very little progress trying to eject, or even arrest expansion, of Ukraine's activities on the left bank.  If the soldier in the video is to be believed, he is hinting that casualties, drug use, defections, or any number of other things are creating a situation where leadership roles are being filled by unqualified people who don't last very long in their positions.

We've seen for quite some time that one way Russia has handled losses of officers is to have fewer of them and having them operate in the rear as much as possible.  So I presume the guy in the video is mostly talking about the junior leadership within the combat units.

How long can an army fight with this sort of leadership before it should be considered a "rabble" instead?

Steve

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think this is a viable tool to combat "cruise missile" type drones as their trajectory is likely more predictable than a copter type drone.  But then again, if you can see where the Shahed is wouldn't it just be easier to shoot it down?  Seems Ukraine has had great success downing them in that way.

Steve

I’d lean towards having the net stay attached to the anti-drone until it makes contact and fouls the victim.  Then it can either be hauled in or jettisoned somewhere.  I’d lean towards jettisoning in some kind of drone dump far from any humans so it can’t be used a a trap to provide target coordinates.

[Zeleban]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

It depends on what they have been using to bring most Shaheds down. We have seen videos of them being taken out with small arms or older anti-air kinetic weapons, but do these account for most of the downings? A re-usable drone that is at very little risk of being lost if it is being used to cover infrastructure a long way from the front lines could be one of the most cost-effective methods and free up systems that could be employed elsewhere.

But how do you think you can intercept the Shahed UAV, which has a speed of 160 km/h, using a quadcopter whose speed does not exceed 90 km/h? We all know from the history of the Second World War that to intercept a bomber using melee weapons (machine guns), a fighter must have a speed almost twice as fast as the bomber.

In general, shooting down the Shahed UAV even with the help of an assault rifle does not seem to be such a big problem (Shahed flies along the same trajectory at the same speed, without even trying to dodge). The problem is that the fighter with the rifle is at the right time and in the right place (on Shahed's flight route).

The Russians know this and therefore set Shahed's route in the most unpredictable way. First it flies south, then turns west, then north, and so on. It is very difficult for our air defense forces to guess what the real target of this drone is and thus plan how to counter these drones.

The real problem is not how to shoot down a drone (which is not really a problem), but how to detect it in the first place. We need a small and cheap "anti-drone" radar or something like that. By placing hundreds of such radars in populated areas of Ukraine, it would be possible to react much more quickly to changes in the course of drones and successfully coordinate the actions of mobile anti-UAV teams

In general, I am surprised that, faced with UAV attacks, Ukraine has not yet adopted the experience of World War 2. When barrage balloons were actively used to combat bombers. We could surround critical infrastructure and cities with such balloons (which should be much smaller than their World War II counterparts, because they must withstand not a large bomber, but a small UAV) with anti-drone networks. This method is much simpler and cheaper than creating high-tech radars.

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

But how do you think you can intercept the Shahed UAV, which has a speed of 160 km/h, using a quadcopter whose speed does not exceed 90 km/h? We all know from the history of the Second World War that to intercept a bomber using melee weapons (machine guns), a fighter must have a speed almost twice as fast as the bomber.

If they are testing it in its designed role, we have to assume they have solved for this. The article says "Fortem "adapted" their product so it could intercept Shahed-136, which weighs about 200 kg, though specific improvements remain undisclosed." It's also a hexacopter designed to intercept drones, so it's probably faster than a quadcopter. And it has onboard radar for target tracking but the range isn't stated.

If they are used to protect important infrastructure (their current stated purpose), they also wouldn't have to chase targets all over the countryside and the "built-in artificial intelligence optimizes interception efficiency by calculating the best position and angle of attack" - they could be the last line of defence.

It could all just be marketing of course, but the testing will hopefully determine if it is fit for purpose.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Offshoot

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

In general, I am surprised that, faced with UAV attacks, Ukraine has not yet adopted the experience of World War 2. When barrage balloons were actively used to combat bombers. We could surround critical infrastructure and cities with such balloons (which should be much smaller than their World War II counterparts, because they must withstand not a large bomber, but a small UAV) with anti-drone networks. This method is much simpler and cheaper than creating high-tech radars.

I suspect that the required balloon density to make a viable screen is so high that it is impractical.  A Ju-87 Stuka had a wingspan of around 45ft.  That is roughly 15 times larger than a good sized UAS this war.  I think trying to put up and sustain a small wire-balloon screen around any major site would likely take thousands, maybe tens of thousands of light balloons.  Those would be more vulnerable to weather and likely would need to be replaced constantly, assuming you could even source that many.

Also the WW2 experience was pretty hit and miss:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrage_balloon#:~:text=They proved to be effective,have been destroyed by balloons.

Effective?  231 V1s brought down out of over 10k fired is not a great screen. Better than nothing…but.  Interestingly the V1 were equipped with wire cutters, which of course will be the counter especially for lighter wires for UAS screens.

[Haiduk]

Reportedly Russians began next heavy assault of Avdiivka. All night enemy artilery and especially heavy MLRS have been firing at UKR positions. Especially on "Promka" fortified position SE from the city. Ukrainian troops still fiercly resit in westrn part of "Promka"

Also Russian dropped several cluster bombs on UKR positions between Sieverne and Avdiivka

The weather is enough good for Russian assault -6 below zero at the night and morning. But alredy at Friday up to +8 and rains, so Russians have 2-3 days of "opportunity window" if not to encircle the city, but at least for enhancing of own emracing of Avdiivka.

Russian soldier near abandoned Bradley, which blown up by mine and lost a track, probably near Stepove village

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I suspect that the required balloon density to make a viable screen is so high that it is impractical.  A Ju-87 Stuka had a wingspan of around 45ft.  That is roughly 15 times larger than a good sized UAS this war.  I think trying to put up and sustain a small wire-balloon screen around any major site would likely take thousands, maybe tens of thousands of light balloons.  Those would be more vulnerable to weather and likely would need to be replaced constantly, assuming you could even source that many.

Also the WW2 experience was pretty hit and miss:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrage_balloon#:~:text=They proved to be effective,have been destroyed by balloons.

Effective?  231 V1s brought down out of over 10k fired is not a great screen. Better than nothing…but.  Interestingly the V1 were equipped with wire cutters, which of course will be the counter especially for lighter wires for UAS screens.

If tracking analysis were to prove that some of these lower tech devices are programmed to navigate along roads in conjunction with a TERCOM altimeter, then it might make sense to set 'traps' for them.

Winch up 2 balloons after dark, with a light filament fishing net strung between and reel 'em in....

They'd just use a strand of creeper.... Wot, held beneath the dorsal guiding feathers?

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If tracking analysis were to prove that some of these lower tech devices are programmed to navigate along roads in conjunction with a TERCOM altimeter, then it might make sense to set 'traps' for them.

Winch up 2 balloons after dark, with a light filament fishing net strung between and reel 'em in....

They'd just use a strand of creeper.... Wot, held beneath the dorsal guiding feathers?

Or giant curvaceous legs in fishnet stockings to distract the Russian operators.

[Haiduk]

It seems "new" because a video is only now issued. This is likely September

One more about EW-shield over UKR troops on left bank bridgeheads. "Magyar" shows how their new EW equipment resqued UKR marines boat from night attack of Russian FPV. In darkness they could't see the drone and hear it because of working engine. In last moment control lines were supressed and the drone hit the water - this is a video, intercepted live from Russian drone. As claims "Magyar", his unit in coodrdination with ELINT and EW units of Marines during whole operatrion time detected 500 and destroyed/supressed 375 enemy FPVs and recon drones (about 70 % of effectiveness). Resently Russian milbloggers tell about big troubles for drones and comm systems becaise of UKR EW assets, covering troops on left bank in that time, when UKR drones fly often with impunity even on 25 km to the rear and disrupt logistic. 

In last time Russians became to use more and more FPV drones with cheap "smartphone-type" thermal or NV cameras. 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Effective?  231 V1s brought down out of over 10k fired is not a great screen. Better than nothing…but.  Interestingly the V1 were equipped with wire cutters, which of course will be the counter especially for lighter wires for UAS screens.

 

It is a little incorrect to compare the V-1, which has the energy of a rocket, and the Shahed UAV, which is driven by a propeller and has much weaker energy.

The use of barrage balloons, repair and replacement of networks between them does not require qualified personnel. This could be done by thousands of civilian volunteers. Those who are now weaving camouflage networks and clearing away the rubble after missile attacks.

 

I hope you won’t argue that there is no way to keep a barrier with balloons in place, securing it to the ground even in strong winds?

[LongLeftFlank]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Or giant curvaceous legs in fishnet stockings to distract the Russian operators.

 

Or inflatable love dolls giving off IR heat signatures uncannily similar to hohols.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

 

It is a little incorrect to compare the V-1, which has the energy of a rocket, and the Shahed UAV, which is driven by a propeller and has much weaker energy.

The use of barrage balloons, repair and replacement of networks between them does not require qualified personnel. This could be done by thousands of civilian volunteers. Those who are now weaving camouflage networks and clearing away the rubble after missile attacks.

 

I hope you won’t argue that there is no way to keep a barrier with balloons in place, securing it to the ground even in strong winds?

Well that is true.  The Shahed is guided from the ground by a human operator and is also far more maneuverable than a V1.  It is not personnel, anyone can put up balloons.  Coordination will be interesting but I think Ukraine has overcome greater challenges.  Finding a source of a few hundred thousand balloons with wires strong enough to create a screen is going to be the main challenge.  Hydrogen/helium production and distribution.  Sustaining the effort of ten thousand balloons around a site.

And then there is the fact that the Shahed is really not designed to be snagged well:

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136

Delta winged at lower speeds, the wires are as likely to slip off considering the low speeds.

So we are at giant nets between balloons that add a lot of weight as they would be kms long..so much bigger balloons.  More materials and would start to exceed what the public could manage.

Not practical and won't work...is what I am arguing.  But hey I like the innovation vibe.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Or inflatable love dolls giving off IR heat signatures uncannily similar to hohols.

Poor old LLF...I am pretty sure they are called sex industry workers now.

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Poor old LLF...I am pretty sure they are called sex industry workers now.

 

 

Wait, isn't there a classic Forum post that claims authority on some CM topic based on regular patronage of a strip club called 'New York Dolls'?

Edited November 22, 2023 by LongLeftFlank
(which I will neither confirm nor deny that I have been to)

[cesmonkey]

Switzerland sells back 25 main battle tanks to Germany
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/switzerland-sells-back-25-main-battle-tanks-to-germany/48998828

 

Quote

“Germany has given assurances that the tanks will remain either in Germany, with NATO or with its EU partners,” the statement said.

 

[Zeleban]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The Shahed is guided from the ground by a human operator and is also far more maneuverable than a V1. 

Shahed is not controlled by a person from the ground; it does not have a control channel or video signal. He flies along a pre-programmed route. It is controlled by a gyroscopic autopilot. It has very poor maneuverability due to small steering surfaces

[cesmonkey]

 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Shahed is not controlled by a person from the ground; it does not have a control channel or video signal. He flies along a pre-programmed route. It is controlled by a gyroscopic autopilot. It has very poor maneuverability due to small steering surfaces

Ah well then really obvious next question...why bother with some ridiculous balloon system?  Why not just employ GPS jammers/EW? The RA can somehow stop HIMARs with EW but we are unable to provide Ukraine with capability to bring down the poor grandson of the V1?

[Zeleban]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ah well then really obvious next question...why bother with some ridiculous balloon system?  Why not just employ GPS jammers/EW? The RA can somehow stop HIMARs with EW but we are unable to provide Ukraine with capability to bring down the poor grandson of the V1?

who told you that HIMARS can be stopped with the help of electronic warfare? The main guidance system of these missiles is inertial (the same as that of the Shahed UAV). GPS is used only for INS correction.

I think that the regularity of HIMARS missile attacks on Russian positions indicates the opposite.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

who told you that HIMARS can be stopped with the help of electronic warfare? The main guidance system of these missiles is inertial (the same as that of the Shahed UAV). GPS is used only for INS correction.

I think that the regularity of HIMARS missile attacks on Russian positions indicates the opposite.

https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2023-07-08

Quoting "leaked Pentagon documents".  "GLMRS, the precision-guided rockets fired by American HIMARS launchers, have also increasingly missed targets or failed to achieve their desired effects."

CNN did a thing too:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html?source=post_page-----4fe11601943d--------------------------------

RUSI also notes the increasing effectiveness of EW on UAS:

https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf

NAVWAR is in full swing.  Not sure how INS fits into all this but if we cannot jam it or disrupt it with EW.  I am again not confident that it hitting a wire is going to stop it either.  At that point we are basically at shooting them down or having a UAS that can intercept.  The larger issue appears to be detecting and tracking them well out.  If we could somehow make the balloon wires into tripwires, you might be onto something.

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

"leaked Pentagon documents"

Oh yes, I completely forgot about these “leaks”.

 

Now we can be sure that New York Times and Economist articles can change the laws of physics. By the way, don’t you find it strange that articles from such well-known publications literally echo Russian propaganda?

The only way for Russia to effectively counter HIMARS missiles is to stop supplying these missiles to Ukraine. And I can say that the Russians have had some success in this direction (largely thanks to famous American publications)

[danfrodo]

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2023-07-08

Quoting "leaked Pentagon documents".  "GLMRS, the precision-guided rockets fired by American HIMARS launchers, have also increasingly missed targets or failed to achieve their desired effects."

CNN did a thing too:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html?source=post_page-----4fe11601943d--------------------------------

RUSI also notes the increasing effectiveness of EW on UAS:

https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf

NAVWAR is in full swing.  Not sure how INS fits into all this but if we cannot jam it or disrupt it with EW.  I am again not confident that it hitting a wire is going to stop it either.  At that point we are basically at shooting them down or having a UAS that can intercept.  The larger issue appears to be detecting and tracking them well out.  If we could somehow make the balloon wires into tripwires, you might be onto something.

To be followed by: "we completely want to support Ukraine, but since the HIMARS don't work we sadly must remove all aid going forward".   

[Harmon Rabb]

More heavy metal for the AFU courtesy of Bulgaria and Germany.

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Oh yes, I completely forgot about these “leaks”.

 

Now we can be sure that New York Times and Economist articles can change the laws of physics. By the way, don’t you find it strange that articles from such well-known publications literally echo Russian propaganda?

The only way for Russia to effectively counter HIMARS missiles is to stop supplying these missiles to Ukraine. And I can say that the Russians have had some success in this direction (largely thanks to famous American publications)

https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-himars-become-less-effective-due-to-russias-jamming/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/06/ukraine-himars-software-rockets-russia-jam/

JDAMs having similar problems (also INS/GPS guided)

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/jamming-jdam-threat-us-munitions-russian-electronic-warfare

Are we really at the point that mainstream news and analysis that we don't like is all "Russian Propaganda"?

Here is a crazy idea.  Why don't you do some legwork and find some credible sites that say the HIMARs are all working just fine?  No problems at all.  And then we can compare.

Clearly INS is not some magic guidance system and needs GPS.  GPS is getting gummed up by RA EW...this is not propaganda, hell it isn't even news. 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

To be followed by: "we completely want to support Ukraine, but since the HIMARS don't work we sadly must remove all aid going forward".   

That was CNN and The Economist, not Fox News FFS.

No, to be followed by software and hardware upgrades so that we can start putting deep strike pressure back on.  Seriously guys, we are becoming an freakin echo chamber in here.  Were all those Leos and Bradley's knocked out in minefields "Russian propaganda" too.  It is war.  The enemy does not sit around and happily get HIMARs-ed (or whatever) without trying to do something about it.  This kind of back and forth is just what happens.

Seriously google "HIMARs jammed" and see what you get.  Either this is one helluva complex hoax or maybe the RA came up with a counter.