How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, you're on quite a tear there, O Smartest Guy on the Thread.

And nice wikipedia work, but you're the one skipping back and forth between centuries and dynasties at this point. So maybe we should take that pissing match over to a 'How Hot Is Xi'an Gonna Get' thread.

Let me restate the point that matters:

Many educated, cosmopolitan and not particularly anti-Western Chinese feel today, and have felt for quite some time, that unhappy convergences of history beginning around 1500, compounded by sheer European rapacity, placed a huge preponderance of the world's resources under Western (that's white people) hegemony by 1900. They aren't actually wrong about that.

So they are now working to shift hegemony in China's favour wherever they can. I probably would too, were I Chinese. But since I'm not Chinese, I don't see it as a good idea.

While China is buying up every mining, processing and transshipment facility it can, anywhere it can (in the absence of ability to 'send a gunboat' to enforce or void its contracts), the obvious places for them to focus lie in their own Asian backyards: Tibet-Xinjiang, Mongolia, the South China Sea basin, northern Myanmar, prospectively Afghanistan and any other 'Stans they can buy their way into.

...But well above and beyond all those is Siberia. They can buy whatever they like from there today of course by paying off the siloviki in Moscow, but that's no substitute for strengthening control over time, over generations.

And as Steve said, they are just thrilled to let Putin make those regions and their populations as weak and marginal as possible.

There's no Disney yellow hordes theory at work here (they were Huns btw, so actually 'white' for some defininition of 'white'). Nor is there some all-wise Confucian thousand-year-plan behind it.  It's just garden variety reelpolitik. China is now the world's top manufacturer, and resources (and embargoes) matter more to them now than anyone.

You want more than wiki?  Break out your cheque book, I have a decent hourly rate...and you get "friends and family" prices.

I can't speak to specific Chinese "educated cosmopolitan" mind-set (you got any good sources for this?), but hey Russia convinced itself to invade Ukraine on less than that.  So, ok, as a political narrative/lever I can buy it.

As to their Near Abroad, totally accept the expansion of control but I suspect they are looking at outer buffer states to protect the back door from European/Western interference.  No small problem with Islamic VEOs in that back yard too...welcome to being a great power...everyone blames you for everything.

I think China is gleefully happy to make Putin as weak as possible.  Russia is sitting on a lot of energy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves - more wiki for ya.  Oh and look at Western Siberia: https://www.britannica.com/science/natural-gas/Location-of-major-gas-fields ) and China needs that on the cheap to have any chance to challenge the US.  So a weak and fractured Russia to exploit that just makes good sense. 

Where I draw question marks is on actual physical occupation/ownership.  That is how we view the threats, through old geographic domain lenses.  I am not sure China sees it that way as "more land = more problems" in a lot of ways.  I do not for a second buy into the Hal Brand theories of Chinese Collapse = Chinese WW3 as if they are somehow a reincarnation of the Third Reich.  In many (cynical) ways it is in the US best interest to sell China as an expansionist threat that we can all rally around.  China is definitely a threat but we need to think pre-WW1, not WW2.  

As to Huns.  As far as I can tell, no one really knows what this bunch really looked like.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huns.  Kinda a mixed bunch of Steppe tribes that seemed to invade and pillage whenever they got bored.  They did invade China but it was in 127 BC (https://www.travelchinaguide.com/china_great_wall/military-defense/beat-huns.htm#:~:text=In 127 BC%2C the Huns,backup camp of the Huns.)

So what for Ukraine?  Well first off China will likely keep Russia on life support because the last thing they want is re-normalization and oil and gas flowing West again.  They also do not want Russia to fully collapse as that is really a problem for them too.  They want Russia floating in the Jello-salad like a piece of rancid pineapple.  Just smelly enough to spoil the fun, but not so toxic as to screw the whole party.  So they will continue to pump support...to a point.  And happily watch as Russia gets weaker and more dependent on them...on that we do agree.  

Edited November 13, 2023 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

OK, so we're in agreement that China isn't Russia's friend and is, in fact, wanting Russia to exhaust itself so that it has no continental rivals in its backyard.  Anything above that, such as a nice breakup of Russia, will benefit China.  It isn't on a land conquering binge like Russia, but rather an economic one.  It's already got its tendrils deep into the Russian far eastern areas so it would just expand upon that rather than drive a bunch of tanks over established borders. 

Good.  Can we move on now?

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You want more than wiki?  Break out your cheque book, I have a decent hourly rate...and you get "friends and family" prices.

I can't speak to specific Chinese "educated cosmopolitan" mind-set (you got any good sources for this?), but hey Russia convinced itself to invade Ukraine on less than that.  So, ok, as a political narrative/lever I can buy it.

As to their Near Abroad, totally accept the expansion of control but I suspect they are looking at outer buffer states to protect the back door from European/Western interference.  No small problem with Islamic VEOs in that back yard too...welcome to being a great power...everyone blames you for everything.

I think China is gleefully happy to make Putin as weak as possible.  Russia is sitting on a lot of energy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves - more wiki for ya.  Oh and look at Western Siberia: https://www.britannica.com/science/natural-gas/Location-of-major-gas-fields ) and China needs that on the cheap to have any chance to challenge the US.  So a weak and fractured Russia to exploit that just makes good sense. 

Where I draw question marks is on actual physical occupation/ownership.  That is how we view the threats, through old geographic domain lenses.  I am not sure China sees it that way as "more land = more problems" in a lot of ways.  I do not for a second buy into the Hal Brand theories of Chinese Collapse = Chinese WW3 as if they are somehow a reincarnation of the Third Reich.  In many (cynical) ways it is in the US best interest to sell China as an expansionist threat that we can all rally around.  China is definitely a threat but we need to think pre-WW1, not WW2.  

As to Huns.  As far as I can tell, no one really knows what this bunch really looked like.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huns.  Kinda a mixed bunch of Steppe tribes that seemed to invade and pillage whenever they got bored.  They did invade China but it was in 127 BC (https://www.travelchinaguide.com/china_great_wall/military-defense/beat-huns.htm#:~:text=In 127 BC%2C the Huns,backup camp of the Huns.)

So what for Ukraine?  Well first off China will likely keep Russia on life support because the last thing they want is re-normalization and oil and gas flowing West again.  They also do not want Russia to fully collapse as that is really a problem for them too.  They want Russia floating in the Jello-salad like a piece of rancid pineapple.  Just smelly enough to spoil the fun, but not so toxic as to screw the whole party.  So they will continue to pump support...to a point.  And happily watch as Russia gets weaker and more dependent on them...on that we do agree.  

Yup, I think we have closed the loop on that.

Let me PM you a brandy from the Luminous Globe in the Skeptics Lounge. I am partial to Duque d'Alba Oro.

...My sources are countless late nights BSing with Chinese business folks in tony bars in various glittering capitals (preferably on their dime). Money talks and bizdev drinks.

Edited November 13, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Butschi]

I was a little hesitant to advertise my own tool here but... given that I actually promised to deliver it in this thread some 2000 pages ago, the cold season is now in full swing (time for making maps and actually playing CM!) ... and we were discussing means by which aliens would invade recently:

If you are interested in automatically generating maps from OpenStreetMap data, CMAutoEditor now has a profile for CMBS. "Automatically" means, CMAutoEditor converts OpenStreetMap data into CM tiles and generates the map by automatizing the clicking in the Scenario Editor.

Let's just keep in mind that depicting actual places in an actual war might be a sensitive topic, especially for the Ukrainian forumites, so be a little circumspect when doing that. Still, if it is not asking too much, if someone knows about good elevation data for Ukraine (i.e. not globally available satellite data like SRTM or ALOS), please contact me.

 

[chuckdyke]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Never say never! Only the good die young, so you might still be around in 2055!

One thing is clear all the arguments of for or against won't stop the warming of the planet. Besides I think 40C is nice warm and comfortable. Once I see the zealots no longer flying to their destinations I may take them more seriously. They are completely counterproductive, stop pollution is far more positive and is what most people can relate too. 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

You will have to excuse us out in the vassal states if we do not share your levels of confidence on the competitive trajectories of the two elephants in the room.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-s-plans-if-he-returns-to-the-white-house-include-deportation-raids-tariffs-and-mass-firings-1.6641829

As Michael Kofman likes to drone on about...things are contingent. But if it makes you feel any better, polling this early generally does a dismal job of predicting the chances for an incumbent and there a many, many people working hard to avoid that outcome. Nobody dismisses the chances of the 'vermin' spewing fascist this time.

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...My sources are countless late nights BSing with Chinese business folks in tony bars in various glittering capitals (preferably on their dime). Money talks and bizdev drinks.

Now that does carry some weight.

[The_Capt]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, so we're in agreement that China isn't Russia's friend and is, in fact, wanting Russia to exhaust itself so that it has no continental rivals in its backyard.  Anything above that, such as a nice breakup of Russia, will benefit China.  It isn't on a land conquering binge like Russia, but rather an economic one.  It's already got its tendrils deep into the Russian far eastern areas so it would just expand upon that rather than drive a bunch of tanks over established borders. 

Good.  Can we move on now?

Steve

Sure let's talk about Iran.

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now that does carry some weight.

Really? From my experience, nobody is as full of **** as a room full of drunk Chinese businessmen...or really any room of businessmen.  

[dan/california]

Ukrainian FPV drones enforcing traffic rules deep into the left bank. Three point turn is huge no no, apparently.

Edit:  worth pointing out someone uploaded the footage from the car...

Edited November 13, 2023 by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Really? From my experience, nobody is as full of **** as a room full of drunk Chinese businessmen...or really any room of businessmen.  

Well brod, the Ignore key is over there.

Anyhoo, when last seen DC (or Ottawa, or ________) technocrats can do a pretty fine line (or several) in BS too. It's a renewable resource.

[Kinophile]

Curious how accurate this read might be... 

 

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well brod, the Ignore key is over there.

Anyhoo, when last seen DC (or Ottawa, or ________) technocrats can do a pretty fine line (or several) in BS too. It's a renewable resource.

Weird. That's when I find technocrats to be their most honest. 

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Really? From my experience, nobody is as full of **** as a room full of drunk Chinese businessmen...or really any room of businessmen.  

Heh, well it depends how one listens.  Often to what is not said.  A trained ear can pick up some very good stuff in these BS venues.  Why?  Because we try and hide our truths in our lies.

I would trust this source over other "expert analysis" on quite a few occasions.  It can be the really good stuff, it just takes longer. 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Heh, well it depends how one listens.  Often to what is not said.  A trained ear can pick up some very good stuff in these BS venues.  Why?  Because we try and hide our truths in our lies.

I would trust this source over other "expert analysis" on quite a few occasions.  It can be the really good stuff, it just takes longer. 

In all seriousness, I'm actually in business but I also interact quite a bit with the 'technocracy' (if we can call that a thing). I find that business people are far more driven by impression and group think than bureaucrats or even pols. Why? Because most of them work in big organizations where outre opinions are likely to mark you out...especially if those opinions don't add to or might detract from the main functioning of the organization (to make money) while people on the government or political side of things who are really ambitious spend their time trying to suss out that edge case that makes them look smarter than anyone else. I've spent too many years listening to contractors telling me about the inevitability of self driving cars, or the unstoppable rise of China or how Y2K was going to be a big deal to take them very seriously. The vox populi of the business class is generally just the vox populi of a class talking to itself.  

Think about how many times you've heard someone say that Google/Apple/Tesla/RandoSiliconVCFund have spent X billion on a thing so that means it's inevitable and it hasn't actually happened and then decide whether that's who you want to take your cues from. 

[danfrodo]

I love having LLF here -- seriously, I mean it.  Always knocks me off my comfort zone in one way or another, whether I end up agreeing or not.  Sounds like he leads quite the interesting international life of business.  Or life of crime, not sure 

Meanwhile, Denys Davydov on youtube says the RU Dniper pullback is fake news, so we just don't know and we're getting contradictory info.  Davydov says maybe it's a PR trial balloon for actual pullback later, but that's just speculation.

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, Butschi said:

Let's just keep in mind that depicting actual places in an actual war might be a sensitive topic, especially for the Ukrainian forumites

Nothing sensitive at least for me. It's a part of military history so far. Just a real scale of clashes even of company level is close to maximal map size. Too hard to make such map with all stuff on it. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

In all seriousness, I'm actually in business but I also interact quite a bit with the 'technocracy' (if we can call that a thing). I find that business people are far more driven by impression and group think than bureaucrats or even pols. Why? Because most of them work in big organizations where outre opinions are likely to mark you out...especially if those opinions don't add to or might detract from the main functioning of the organization (to make money) while people on the government or political side of things who are really ambitious spend their time trying to suss out that edge case that makes them look smarter than anyone else. I've spent too many years listening to contractors telling me about the inevitability of self driving cars, or the unstoppable rise of China or how Y2K was going to be a big deal to take them very seriously. The vox populi of the business class is generally just the vox populi of a class talking to itself.  

Think about how many times you've heard someone say that Google/Apple/Tesla/RandoSiliconVCFund have spent X billion on a thing so that means it's inevitable and it hasn't actually happened and then decide whether that's who you want to take your cues from. 

So what they should do is stick all you guys on a Humint and PsyOps courses.  Ok, so you attend 10 parties and hear the same BS line.  How similar are those lines?  Do they sound scripted?  Are some genuine?  Now what aren’t they saying?  You are going to see a pecking order pretty quick so who is driving the party line?  This gives you a baseline.  Now as you attend more parties what is that baseline doing?  Is is moving?  Is it static?  Who is talking to you?  Who is talking to someone else and are they telling the same story?  Now does the story change based on audience, teller?  Once you really get good at it you will spot anomalies - no party line is going to be totally airtight (and if it is, then that is something).  Human beings hemorrhage information, it is baked into the species.  The trick is to see the patterns.

Then there are the blanks - why is no one talking about X?  Wait a minutes - didn’t the last 5 guys say X and not Y.  If your eyes are glazing over, you are doing it wrong.  Common phrases, buzzwords.  I once jacked up a ChatGPT return because of a buzz phrase catch.  Gaps in stories that someone else might fill.  

And then the wind shifts.  You can get a sense of where the herd is going.  What is spooking them.  We collectively seek certainty like moths to flames.  What is their certainty?  What is their uncertainty?  A good experienced listener can unpeel a social group in minutes.  This is how Humint works - rumour, gossip, BS.  I bet you can pick a MAGA guy out in seconds right now.  Like that but broader.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is how Humint works - rumour, gossip, BS.  I bet you can pick a MAGA guy out in seconds right now.

well, you could just look for the red hat and the tshirt w trump's head on rambo's body hip-firing a heavy MG.  But hey, I'm no Humint pro.... 

[JonS]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so you attend 10 parties and hear the same BS line.  How similar are those lines?  Do they sound scripted?  Are some genuine?  Now what aren’t they saying?  You are going to see a pecking order pretty quick so who is driving the party line?

Theres a hilarious example of this process in action towards the beginning of Death of Stalin

(Buscemi/Khrushchev and wife recalling and recording what was said at dascha by whom, as per their custom)

Edited November 13, 2023 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, JonS said:

Theres a hilarious example of this process in action towards the beginning of Death of Stalin

 

And THANK YOU for reminding me that this has to go back to the top of my list of movies to watch.  For some reason last weekend Ferris Bueller's Day Off rose to the top.  Haven't seen that in 20+ years and it still entertained, but I want to see Jason Isaacs' interpretation of Zhukov again much sooner rather than later.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And THANK YOU for reminding me that this has to go back to the top of my list of movies to watch.  For some reason last weekend Ferris Bueller's Day Off rose to the top.  Haven't seen that in 20+ years and it still entertained, but I want to see Jason Isaacs' interpretation of Zhukov again much sooner rather than later.

Steve

One of the best movies ever, Death of Stalin.  I could watch Stalin die over & over & over.  And Zhukov shooting Beria -- so incredibly blunt and to the point while the others are all jabbering.  You do have JoJo Rabbit on your list also, I hope? 

I hope Putin soon joins Stalin in the 'died in puddle of his own urine' club

[LongLeftFlank]

Trying to get back on topic.

I didn't see this one posted before. Second video. Besides being quite gruesome, as noted (though not too close up, CM level 4), there are a lot of cuts so it's hard to follow the action.  But there are some interesting tactical moments, if you have the stomach for the rest.

 

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

You do have JoJo Rabbit on your list also, I hope?

Off the list only because I rewatched it a couple of weeks ago.  Flawless movie.

Steve

[alison]

It's certainly valuable to know how to "listen to what they're not saying" when trying to analyze the mood in Beijing, but I don't think Chinese ambitions to the north are a big secret. Poesel made an excellent post a couple pages ago which pointed out what the Chinese government has made clear for over a decade: they aim to become a great power in the polar regions.

There is a CSIS multimedia presentation about this with several links to government statements on the topic: https://features.csis.org/hiddenreach/china-polar-research-facility/ 

Here is a Brookings report for a longer read: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/northern-expedition-chinas-arctic-activities-and-ambitions/

Although the internal politics of the higher echelons of the CCP can be pretty opaque, they are generally pretty good at sharing their broader geopolitical goals, because that's the only way to get 98 million party members aligned. I suspect analysts spend a lot more time wading through the avalanche of buzzword-laden content that the government makes freely available than schmoozing at bars trying to coax out what is being kept secret.

 

Edited November 13, 2023 by alison
typo