How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Just wait until these are automatic homing and deployable via artillery
 

 

The Ivans are already starting to use them as well. Countermeasures are imperative, however imperfect.

A shotgun could have taken down that second one. Squaddies need to start shooting clays for practice.

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The Ivans are already starting to use them as well. Countermeasures are imperative, however imperfect.

A shotgun could have taken down that second one. Squaddies need to start shooting clays for practice.

Clays don’t fly like this:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

On ATACMS for Ukraine, don’t settle for a job half done (BreakingDefense)

Quote

n October, Ukraine revealed it had quietly received, and then successfully used, the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) long-range weapon against Russia. In this new op-ed, John Hardie and Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies argue that the US needs to send significantly more of the weapons — and not just the older variants that Ukraine has received so far.

Two weeks after Ukraine first employed the US-provided Army Tactical Missile System against Russian forces, top GOP lawmakers sent a letter to President Joe Biden arguing that “the job on ATACMS is only half-done.”

They’re right. Without more ATACMS deliveries, Ukraine will likely soon run out. And just as importantly, Kyiv would benefit from other ATACMS variants beyond the version already provided.

 

ATACMS is a ground-launched ballistic missile system operated by the US Army and several allied and partner militaries. It offers a highly survivable, all-weather long-range precision-strike capability that can respond to time-sensitive targets faster than a cruise missile.

Obtaining ATACMS had been a top priority for Kyiv for more than a year. But only after bipartisan congressional pressure and growing concerns regarding the war did the Biden administration finally agree in September to send ATACMS to Ukraine.

 

While that belated decision has helped Ukraine on the battlefield, the administration did not send the newest or most advanced version of ATACMS. Instead, Ukraine received the M39 Block I, the oldest ATACMS variant. It has a maximum range of 165 kilometers and carries a warhead that disperses 950 anti-personnel/anti-materiel (APAM) bomblets. By contrast, modern versions of ATACMS have a 300-kilometer range and carry unitary warheads. The Pentagon reportedly agreed to donate the M39 because it’s not written into US war plans, as its warhead is inconsistent with US policy discouraging the use of cluster munitions.

Ukraine quickly put the missiles to good use. In mid-October, Kyiv’s forces struck the Berdyansk and Luhansk airfields, located in eastern and southern Ukraine, respectively. In addition to destroying or damaging numerous Russian helicopters, the strikes will likely force Russian Army Aviation to operate from more distant bases, reducing its effectiveness.

 

 

 

Of course, ATACMS might’ve had a greater impact if Biden had sent them earlier. After Kyiv launched its counteroffensive in early June, Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters operating from Berdyansk helped thwart Ukrainian advances. But late is better than never.

As the lawmakers note in their Nov. 1 letter, however, “the United States has only provided a smaller number” of ATACMS to Ukraine. Western officials told The New York Times that the initial delivery consisted of just 20 or so missiles, while the Associated Press reported that Kyiv had received fewer than a dozen as of mid-October. Ukraine likely expended most of those missiles during its initial salvos. Absent additional supplies, Ukraine will soon run out — if it has not already.

In their letter, the lawmakers called on Biden to send Kyiv the rest of America’s ATACMS missiles with APAM warheads. This would include both the M39 as well as the M39A1 Block IA. The latter also carries a cluster warhead but has a 300-kilometer range, allowing Ukraine to hold at risk targets in all of Crimea. If the Pentagon doesn’t need the M39 due to its cluster warhead, then the same presumably applies to the M39A1. The US Army reportedly had nearly 1,500 ATACMS missiles as of late August, including over 360 with APAM warheads.

In addition to the APAM variants, the lawmakers also urged Biden to give Ukraine some ATACMS missiles with unitary warheads. Whereas the APAM variant is effective against soft-skinned targets such as aircraft and air defense systems, its warhead is ineffective against targets such as bridges and hardened command posts. Destroying those targets requires a powerful unitary warhead like those found on modern ATACMS variants.

Ukraine does have other long-range missiles with unitary warheads, most notably its Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs), provided by the United Kingdom and France, respectively. But Kyiv likely has few of those missiles left, and London and Paris cannot soon provide many more.

Also, because those missiles have a maximum range of just 250 kilometers, Ukrainian pilots would have to put themselves at great risk to strike targets deep in Crimea. This includes the Crimean Bridge, which Russia uses to transport equipment and supplies to southern Ukraine. Disabling that bridge could facilitate Ukrainian gains during a renewed offensive in the spring. While Germany’s Taurus ALCM would probably offer the best solution thanks to its over 500-kilometer range and sophisticated fuze, Berlin has refused to provide it.

Pentagon officials have argued that the United States doesn’t have enough unitary ATACMS to spare. These missiles are certainly a high-demand asset. But the US military plans to soon begin fielding a more capable replacement, the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), within the next two years. Indeed, deliveries of PrSM Increment 1 could begin as early as 2024. As the US Army’s top procurement official said in September, the PrSM’s imminent arrival could “make it less risky from a readiness standpoint to provide some number” of ATACMS to Ukraine.

RELATED: Army taps teams to build new Precision Strike Missile for targets beyond 1,000 km

Moreover, ATACMS remains in full-rate production at Lockheed Martin. The company makes “about 500 per year,” a spokesman told The Washington Post in July. Currently, 209 missiles are planned for sales to foreign countries in fiscal year 2024. Washington could ask one or more of those countries to delay receipt so the missiles can either go directly to Ukraine or backfill US donations. Better yet, Congress could appropriate funding this year to procure more ATACMS for Ukraine.

ATACMS has proven to be a useful addition to Ukraine’s arsenal of long-range precision-strike capabilities. But it’s too soon for Washington to pat itself on the back.

The Biden administration should deliver the Pentagon’s remaining APAM missiles to Ukraine without delay and send as many ATACMS with unitary warheads as possible without jeopardizing US military readiness; that would likely include at least several dozen. For their part, Republicans in Congress should support quickly passing a supplemental Ukraine aid bill.

Ukrainians are determined to defend their homes against Russia’s unprovoked invasion. But success on the battlefield requires more than determination. It also requires the right weapons. That’s why Washington should provide Kyiv with additional ATACMS without delay.

John Hardie is deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a nonpartisan research institute based in Washington, DC. Bradley Bowman is senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power.

Preach it, brothers!

Oh and the name of this website is very appropriate for this op-ed.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

A little more credibility for the UN.  Russia no longer has a seat on the International Court of Justice for the first time since its founding.  In fact, it was at the bottom of the voting for open seats.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-not-elected-to-icj-for-the-first-time-50367186.html

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Clays don’t fly like this:

 

Sure, and I knew someone would jump on me, but if I'm that second guy facing death and dismemberment I'd much sooner have a single shotgun shot to try to save myself, or maybe at least detonate it further away, rather than trying to plink it with my AKS.

...Maybe give every grunt leaving his trench an underbarrel GL in which he locks and loads a special round that combines pellets with a little smoke, to give just enough concealment to flee?

I'm sure the Culin hedgerow device was half-assed too, but it was better than nothing.

Edited November 10, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

Just now, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, and I knew someone would jump on me, but if I'm that second guy facing death and dismemberment I'd much sooner have a single shotgun shot to try to save myself, or maybe at least detonate it further away, rather than trying to plink it with my AKS.

...Maybe give every grunt an underbarrel AGS17 with a locked in round combining pellets plus a little smoke for concealment?

I'm sure the Culin hedgerow device was half-assed too, but it was better than nothing.

Second problem.  Just read that Economist report on The Future of War and Ukrainian soldiers are whispering to avoid being picked up by acoustic sensors.  So when they start blasting the sky with shotguns like a Taliban wedding they are going to get picked up pretty damn quick and killed by something else.  This entire damned war is creating major dilemmas for troops on the ground.  Half-assed can get one killed faster than "no-***" in some cases. 

Right now dispersion, camouflage, digging deep, EM and acoustic discipline and moving seem to be the best ways to stay alive. 

[poesel]

18 hours ago, acrashb said:

What are the remaining 10%, assuming they can be neatly summarized?

 

IIRC it was protection of minorities, influence of oligarchs and more anti-corruption.

17 hours ago, JonS said:

@acrashb

"Is at peace [Y/N]"?

This is only about the beginning of talks. Those can take a loooooong time - ask Turkey.
Even if Ukraine is still at war, the EU is not a defense pact (although there is something somewhere deep in the contracts IIRC). OTOH, the EU is not going to finance a bridge for Russia to blow up.
If Ukraine joins the EU before the war ends, we are talking about a very, very long war...

[Harmon Rabb]

Bravo Lithuania!

9 minutes ago, poesel said:

IIRC it was protection of minorities, influence of oligarchs and more anti-corruption.

This is only about the beginning of talks. Those can take a loooooong time - ask Turkey.
Even if Ukraine is still at war, the EU is not a defense pact (although there is something somewhere deep in the contracts IIRC). OTOH, the EU is not going to finance a bridge for Russia to blow up.
If Ukraine joins the EU before the war ends, we are talking about a very, very long war...

If I'm not mistaken, you are referring to the mutual defence clause.

Quote

The Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the solidarity between European Union (EU) Member States in dealing with external threats by introducing a mutual defence clause (Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union). This clause provides that if a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations.

This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all Member States. However, it does not affect the neutrality of certain Member States and is consistent with the commitments of countries that are NATO members.

This clause is supplemented by the solidarity clause (Article 222 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union), which provides that Member States are obliged to act jointly where one of them is the victim of a terrorist attack or a natural or man-made disaster.

Mutual defence clause (europa.eu)

Edited November 10, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

30 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Second problem.  Just read that Economist report on The Future of War and Ukrainian soldiers are whispering to avoid being picked up by acoustic sensors.  So when they start blasting the sky with shotguns like a Taliban wedding they are going to get picked up pretty damn quick and killed by something else.  This entire damned war is creating major dilemmas for troops on the ground.  Half-assed can get one killed faster than "no-***" in some cases. 

Right now dispersion, camouflage, digging deep, EM and acoustic discipline and moving seem to be the best ways to stay alive. 

The tech has reached a very strange point where almost everything else on the battlefield is a target for a kamikaze quad copter, and there is no good way to kill kamikaze quad copters/lancet type drones. either someone will solve this problem, and quite possibly win a war or two in the process, or there is just gong to be a lot less of everything but quad-copters out there. There seems to be more obvious technological paths to making the quad-copters more effective, than to defeating them in mass, though.

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Butschi said:

Dramatic if true but

there is enough in this sentence that suggest these numbers should not be stated as facts.

Sorry to sound like a broken record. I can't help it.

My standard rule of thumb is to take the numbers, divide by 1/2, and then assess it.  Do that with those numbers and it's still a sign of how much combat power Russia is throwing away in a very short span of time.

One of the things that *is* useful with the official counts is to track the differences between them.  This may not indicate accurate counts, but over time it likely shows pretty accurate trendlines for the rate and timing of losses by category.  Not perfect because from a data standpoint garbage in is garbage out, but there are plenty of non-military examples of this sort of stuff being useful.  Economists in particular rely upon trends of generally flawed data to make their assessments.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

This OpEd piece in The Hill is worth reading, even for the most jaded followers of this thread.  It is a very clear, succinct, and I believe (as I know many here do) accurate assessment of why Russians continue to fight in this war despite all of the many reasons why they should not:

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4303178-why-do-russian-soldiers-keep-marching-into-slaughter/

At the end he came to the same conclusions that we've discussed here.  Specifically, all the necessary elements for a military collapse from within are already evident, but the combination/strength of each component obviously isn't quite right to produce the desired outcome.  Not yet, anyway.

Steve

[Kinophile]

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/11/09/turkish-vehicle-kamikaze-drones/

Drones firing drones. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Quote

British village turned into AFU training ground - General Staff A village in the North of England was converted specifically for the training of Ukrainian recruits to learn combat in urban conditions. The area has real residential houses, hotels, a section of railroad, and a sewage system - the kind of facilities the military can encounter during combat operations on the Ukrainian front line. According to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the UK has trained about 30 thousand Ukrainian military personnel. More than 20,000 more were trained before the Russian invasion.

Neat.

[Kinophile]

Brief overview, I'd like to read a full article. 

[Kinophile]

Drone v Drone

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/11/09/turkish-vehicle-kamikaze-drones/

Drones firing drones. 

The part of me that loves UGVs is thrilled by this.  The rest of me not so much

There's a couple of good related articles in The Defense Post.  Thanks for pointing us to them.  Here's one about autonomous capable battlefield taxis:

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/27/australian-army-robotic-carriers/?expand_article=1

More expensive high tech solutions being fielded to deal with drones:

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/27/us-radar-effector-lids/?expand_article=1

Steve

[Kinophile]

Is this really the new Epirus rig from Leonidas? Or a fake img? 

https://ts2.space/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/US-Army-Receives-Cutting-Edge-Microwave-Weapon-to-Combat-Drones_6545770d1108f.jpg

It looks like something from Dune 2.

This is the correct one,  o? 

https://www.c4isrnet.com/resizer/MET-75K-YGhVHmYsGkEQTzoELxE=/800x0/filters:format(jpg):quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/6VWCPPIHJJAJ3FT6EX2FMI6EHU.jpg

Edited November 10, 2023 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/27/ukraine-kamikaze-drone-production/

This seems to be the Ukrainian version of the lancet.

 

[dan/california]

If this is real, the guys doing the shooting had someone, or something, following this guy and updating them continuously.

Edited November 10, 2023 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CzXQPIoI35h/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

[NamEndedAllen]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The part of me that loves UGVs is thrilled by this.  The rest of me not so much

My inborn self-defense sensor suite added a new threat warning indicator: 

Autonomous armed drone swarms (of many types) equipped with facial recognition. Triggered by the ongoing reporting on China hacking and stealing extensive identity information on millions of Americans, including military personnel as well as via civilian databases. Well reported for years, and disturbing. Hello, TikTok:
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/china-spent-years-collecting-americans-personal-information-u-s-just-n1134411

https://www.ibtimes.com/china-has-stolen-personal-data-80-american-adults-report-3134525

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/21/china-stolen-us-data-exposed-cia-operatives-spy-networks/

https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-theft-indictments-china-hacking-05aa58325be0a85d44c637bd891e668f 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Personnel_Management_data_breach

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

My inborn self-defense sensor suite added a new threat warning indicator: 

Autonomous armed drone swarms (of many types) equipped with facial recognition. Triggered by the ongoing reporting on China hacking and stealing extensive identity information on millions of Americans, including military personnel as well as via civilian databases. Well reported for years, and disturbing. Hello, TikTok:
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/china-spent-years-collecting-americans-personal-information-u-s-just-n1134411

https://www.ibtimes.com/china-has-stolen-personal-data-80-american-adults-report-3134525

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/21/china-stolen-us-data-exposed-cia-operatives-spy-networks/

https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-theft-indictments-china-hacking-05aa58325be0a85d44c637bd891e668f 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Personnel_Management_data_breach

“That’s no moon…”

[Haiduk]

19 hours ago, Kraft said:

About these upgraded Lancets with LIDARs and over-target HEAT activation - here presumably the first documented video of it's attack on Bradley near Avdiivka. Looks like HEAT charge was reduced by ERA and didn't make serious damage to IFV, but situation is not good

Also reportedly new footage has appeared with Lancets or their cheaper version Skalpel, equipped with thermal camera, allowing it night usage. Sanctions are working...

[akd]

Okay, things are really getting out of hand now…

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

If this is real, the guys doing the shooting had someone, or something, following this guy and updating them continuously.

Several days ago Russian Spetsnaz group ambushed and killed five soldiers of Territorial Defense unit in border area of Sumy oblast. NE borderland is bipartisan diversion raids, short mortar and sometime artilelry barrages etc. 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Haiduk