How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I don’t think it is nearly as cut and dry as the average person thinks.  There are upsides to a stalemate at this point.  To be totally brutal an endstate where both sides can claim victory (and defeat) often makes for the best outcome.  Ukraine is still a free nation, our support ensured they stood up against an illegal invasion and largely repelled it when there should have been no chance of that success.  

Russia and Putin can claim victory as they took an additional 7% of Ukraine at an eye-watering cost.  But this will likely keep ol Flat Face in power for a few more years before Time does its thing for us all.  This avoids a Russian free fall experience, and we get the added bonus of Europe buying our oil and gas (or alternatives) while we righteously continue to isolate Russia -this is why it won’t matter who is in the White House post-war. 

A lose-lose starts to look like a win-win.  US administration can point to all the upsides going into ‘24, plus we are looking at Armageddon in the Middle East which keeps the Bible Belt focused elsewhere.  We hopefully do a whole bunch of reconstruction in Ukraine and go all South Korea on the place.  Russia continues as downward spiral but slowly enough they don’t start WW3.  And we can all focus on China as the next big threat worthy of trillions in defence spending on bloated military capabilities that probably won’t work.

So you see, a stalemate is not the end of the world.  In fact I would not be surprised if in some circles they are kinda pushing for it.  The total and utter crushing of Russia has some serious risks.  This outcome sidesteps a lot of them.  Now everyone is both happy and unhappy.  Sometimes no decision is the best decision.

I for one am not convinced we are there yet, but we definitely can see it from here.

This is not Putins autocrat perspective.

He wants to restore a great empire and make history books, costs are calculated differently

Putin does not care about a few hundred thousand dead convicts, immigrants, muslims, whatever

Economic damage is only an issue if it reaches a nations breaking point. Look at conditions in Venezuela, absolutely abysmal, child death rates are at 25% due to starvation etc etc etc - where is the regime change? - it will take far far more until apathetic russians will roam the streets demanding change, they are content with a bag of Potatoes for a dead son, after all.

When he feels weekness due to instability, or other autocrats occupying the mind of the west, this will all start again, maybe in Ukraine, maybe someplace else and it signals exactly this to China, sacrifice a few peasents and get to paint the map.

This is already a confrontation between the West and East and just like when the soviet union keeled over, the first thing the west wants to do is to get back to business as usual, as if Putin will just Accept Minsk3 and will behave like a dog in his corner, this kind of irrelevance to the world fueled his whole empire restoration motives

Edited November 3, 2023 by Kraft

[akd]

More views of Oct. 10 Avdiivka assault:

 

[The_Capt]

41 minutes ago, Kraft said:

This is not Putins autocrat perspective.

He wants to restore a great empire and make history books, costs are calculated differently

Putin does not care about a few hundred thousand dead convicts, immigrants, muslims, whatever

Economic damage is only an issue if it reaches a nations breaking point. Look at conditions in Venezuela, absolutely abysmal, child death rates are at 25% due to starvation etc etc etc - where is the regime change? - it will take far far more until apathetic russians will roam the streets demanding change, they are content with a bag of Potatoes for a dead son, after all.

When he feels weekness due to instability, or other autocrats occupying the mind of the west, this will all start again, maybe in Ukraine, maybe someplace else and it signals exactly this to China, sacrifice a few peasents and get to paint the map.

This is already a confrontation between the West and East and just like when the soviet union keeled over, the first thing the west wants to do is to get back to business as usual, as if Putin will just Accept Minsk3 and will behave like a dog in his corner, this kind of irrelevance to the world fueled his whole empire restoration motives

You are no doubt correct…but he is contained.   Pragmatically the West political calculus is that this is a problem that cannot be solved.  If we destroy Putin/Russia we have a whole other set of more dangerous possibilities.  If we let him get away with murder (literally) we set ourselves up for worse.  Russia just took “the 2nd most powerful land army” on the planet and smashed it to a pulp in Ukraine. Putin might not care about convicts and country rubes, but he does care very much about nearly 3000 tanks and a submarine.  It will take the RA decades to come back from this mess.  However, they still need to be enough of a threat to justify NATO spending targets and positioning.  Conveniently a stalemate outcome supports this.

A lot of you in Ukraine/Eastern Europe think we in the West “don’t get it”.  We actually do, very well.  What you do not understand is that our level of investment has a different end-state.  We never wanted to see the complete and utter defeat of Russia as a state.  The hazards of a nuclear power in complete free fall are simply too high.  Putin can lie to himself and his people all he wants, but he knows that any hopes of Russian imperial expansion died North of Kyiv…he did that and everyone knows it.  Will Russia be back?  Sure.  Or maybe we will get lucky and when Putin dies we get a more moderate jerk we can do business with.  But for now, the US and Canada sell more oil and gas to Europe.  We sell more weapons to Europe. And we contain Russia, just enough.  Act 2: China.  

Would it have been nice to drive home the “point” a little further?  Sure.  But now Ukraine can support an insurgency in the occupied territories for a decade instead of Russia doing other way around.  We know Putin doesn’t care and will continue to play his game.  But the outcome of this war, even if it stops today, made want Putin “wants” irrelevant.  He shattered is military means to achieve it.  He also broke his Diplomatic and Economic means in the bargain.

So we fall back on Plan Korea.  We can live with that.  Optimal?  Definitely not.  But when I said back last May that if the UA offensive goes nowhere over the summer and fall that “there would be difficult conversations”…well this is that conversation.

I personally don’t actually think we are done yet to be honest.  Let’s see where winter takes us.  But the UA CHOD basically admitting we are at “positional warfare” - which is just code for slow grinding attritional warfare - then it is clear we can see those hard conversations coming.  Next will be to see if there is any political movement on either side.

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/11/ukraine-braces-winter-drone-attacks-allies-rush-provide-defenses/391740/
As Ukraine braces for winter drone attacks, allies rush to provide defenses
But some of the very latest U.S. systems are being held back—so far.
 

 

[akd]

Seems U.S. sent at least one M1150 ABV along with the other Abrams tanks:

 

[Kinophile]

Article on a Russian former engineer involved in ICBM design.

There are caveats to their understanding and breadth of knowledge but very interesting insights to the production and readiness of the deterrent forces. 

TLDR -  deeply corrupt procurement and manufacturing,  strong probability of failure in a significant percentage of built missiles- but certainly still enough to annihilate us all. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

More views of Oct. 10 Avdiivka assault:

 

The last (brief) segment is of the most infamous of all the attacks.  For the first time we now known the type of weapon that took out the first BTR in the column.  It was some sort of flat trajectory direct fire weapon, either tank cannon or ATGM like TOW-2.  All previous videos I've seen start with that BTR already knocked out.  I presumed from a surviving mine or the vehicle going slightly off track.

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

What the actual f**k... 

Was he getting it to comrades who needed one,  but were dangerous to get to? Or hoping to decapitate a random mobik? 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/11/ukraine-braces-winter-drone-attacks-allies-rush-provide-defenses/391740/
As Ukraine braces for winter drone attacks, allies rush to provide defenses
But some of the very latest U.S. systems are being held back—so far.
 

 

I think this was specifically testing the use of the auto-cannon on both planes. Aircraft doing gun runs is simply an obsolete concept. The number of things that can kill a plane coming in that low is simply ridiculous at this point. I mean it would be entirely cost effective to send up 50 or a hundred small drones on the off chance one of them can manage to get ingested by the planes engine. 

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

A lot of you in Ukraine/Eastern Europe think we in the West “don’t get it”.  We actually do, very well.  What you do not understand is that our level of investment has a different end-state.  We never wanted to see the complete and utter defeat of Russia as a state.  The hazards of a nuclear power in complete free fall are simply too high.  Putin can lie to himself and his people all he wants, but he knows that any hopes of Russian imperial expansion died North of Kyiv…he did that and everyone knows it.  Will Russia be back?  Sure.  Or maybe we will get lucky and when Putin dies we get a more moderate jerk we can do business with.  But for now, the US and Canada sell more oil and gas to Europe.  We sell more weapons to Europe. And we contain Russia, just enough.  Act 2: China.  

Also, warm up for our equipment just to see it’s up to snuff, and a giant kick in the balls re cheap drones.

That said, I don’t think the state of things is anywhere near as good as this, forgetting completely about Iran getting Russian nukes. What happens if Russia continues terror attacks? What incentive do they to not continue? Russia can continue destabilizing our political discourse pretty much without consequence.

The lesson for every bad guy from this is that you might get a lot of soldiers killed and military equipment ruined, but you can seize that territory you wanted. And that might be good enough for Winnie the Flu. I bet he would happily trade half the Chinese military for Taiwan. Oh and there might be diplomatic isolation from the West, but nobody else really cares.

Edited November 3, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Lethaface]

20 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

I think we are closer to being able to rely on at least some battery power than is commonly accepted. V1 powered armor is likely just mobility, where the soldier can now jog at 10kmph with a full combat load for 1 hour without destroying their joints. Let’s say takes 1kwh. If the solider is packing along a few kg of tesla-style batteries, that starts look less sci-fi and more real.

I think the major challenge is engineering a suitable actuator (ie artificial muscle) for this suit.

It’s all about the economics. If 10 soliders cost as much as one tank, but each one has similar destructive capability by themselves relative to the tank, then things are ok.

Yeah we have to differentiate between the various benefits of powered armor, and how much they cost. For example, improved mobility, vs more weight, vs better camouflage, etc.

Ugh I’ve only finished part 1 and a week or two of 12 hour days has put a halt to more reading.

Human powered exoskeleletons could already help with the 'joint destroying' aspects; if the load isn't burdened on our skeleton, humans can already produce enough energy needed for the motion. But our skeleton isn't build for carrying 2x our body weight for long periods. Add some batteries with smart recharging and these might be already significant improvements over the 'human skeleton mk1'. 

[Probus]

3 hours ago, akd said:

More views of Oct. 10 Avdiivka assault:

 

What hit the last vehicle to be destroyed?  Was that a tank shell with the spalling coming out the other side?

[acrashb]

38 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

 if the load isn't burdened on our skeleton, humans can already produce enough energy needed for the motion. 

From wikipedia, "150 watts for an hour of vigorous exercise", or 75 watts sustained for eight hours.  Not sure that's enough to do anything useful.

So we'll need swappable batteries and better armour than this: 

 

[kimbosbread]

9 minutes ago, acrashb said:

From wikipedia, "150 watts for an hour of vigorous exercise", or 75 watts sustained for eight hours.  Not sure that's enough to do anything useful.

A good amateur cyclist can do 300W sustained per hour. A properly doped up Grand Tour winning cyclist does 500W sustained. A sprinter is doing about 2000W, but over 10-20 seconds only.

Tesla batteries (Panasonic laptop batteries last I checked) are 250WH per kg.

If you can give a soldier for the cost of say 5kg in batteries an extra 50W for 24h, that’s actually a lot of power.

EDIT: This obviously implies 100% efficiency, but even at 50% this is not an insignificant benefit.

Edited November 3, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Lethaface]

25 minutes ago, acrashb said:

From wikipedia, "150 watts for an hour of vigorous exercise", or 75 watts sustained for eight hours.  Not sure that's enough to do anything useful.

So we'll need swappable batteries and better armour than this: 

 

Well they already haul massive loads, especially the SF type of forces, with obvious consequences later on in life if not already during operations. But yeah probably only human organic power is too limited. But with the use of tech, engineering, tension and lever effects I'd say there is more to be gained from the human basic strength. Especially if you add 'hybrid' power. 

[Splinty]

35 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Well they already haul massive loads, especially the SF type of forces, with obvious consequences later on in life if not already during operations. But yeah probably only human organic power is too limited. But with the use of tech, engineering, tension and lever effects I'd say there is more to be gained from the human basic strength. Especially if you add 'hybrid' power. 

My back and knees will testify to that.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Splinty said:

My back and knees will testify to that.

You're forgetting about your neck.  If you're going to make a list of grunt related complaints, do it right

Though seriously, IIRC neck issues were the first one to be raised by military personnel back in the 1990s when soldiers had a lot of time with Kevlar helmets but not much time with body armor yet.  Then 2003 rolled around and everybody was decked out in plated armor for most of the day for months at a time.  Then knees and lower backs started to become a topic.

Also, as result of the neck problems the US military adopted the ACH style helmet which cut the weight down a bit over the PASGT.  Other features in the mix, obviously, but they were definitely trying for less weight.  The new ECH weighs even less.

This is just an outsider's perspective of how the progression went.  Not that it's relevant to anything

Steve

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Splinty said:

My back and knees will testify to that.

That by itself (you're not alone I'd say) should be enough reason for investment in those areas. Also, many potential recruits for 'elite' type formations (and beyond probably) don't make the cut because of injuries during the recruitment camp training/selection. This is an existing problem for those type of forces, especially in countries without drafts/professional only armies.

[Lethaface]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This was the excellent point that ISW made a couple of days ago.  It can be argued that at the tactical and perhaps operational level Russians have learned a few significant things since this war started, but strategically... there appears to be almost nothing learned.  Imagine a scenario where Gerasimov stipulated that subordinate commanders needed to come with innovative solutions on their own or be shot for incompetence, I think you'd see the Colonels and Majors that weren't shot dead for failure would probably come up with some pretty creative solutions.  However, the same corrupt and incompetent leadership that is responsible for all of the Russian failures is still the ones in charge.  Which is good!

Steve

The last bits of your post is imo why we don't see real 'learning & improving' on the side of the RA. And also links to what was missing in another post linking to a video about the changing world order which was too limited in its vision, at least imo. The thing the 'West' or rather democracy has going for it is the advantage on the side of learning and improving. We probably owe Napoleon some slack on this account and we are in danger of losing this advantage, corporate culture being one of the biggest threats imo.

 

Ps Napoleon wasn't really democratic, but imo the only durable/sustainable way of enforcing learning & improving is in the dimension of what democratic freedom actually entails. Our democracies are in the risk of losing this, as the 1% gets more and more influence and wealth to the detriment of the 99%.

(Does one actually have the chance to make a difference for the better by giving it all, or does whatever one do not make an iota of difference).

Edited November 3, 2023 by Lethaface

[Harmon Rabb]

For me it was just another Friday. Now I have another reason to celebrate today.

 

AFU Archer spotted.

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

A good amateur cyclist can do 300W sustained per hour. A properly doped up Grand Tour winning cyclist does 500W sustained. A sprinter is doing about 2000W, but over 10-20 seconds only.

Tesla batteries (Panasonic laptop batteries last I checked) are 250WH per kg.

If you can give a soldier for the cost of say 5kg in batteries an extra 50W for 24h, that’s actually a lot of power.

EDIT: This obviously implies 100% efficiency, but even at 50% this is not an insignificant benefit.

Personally I think Pogacar is a product of genetic engineering, the doping rumors are just too throw the press off the scent. If that doesn't make any sense you aren't a cycling fan, and please ignore the digression.

A truly practical exoskeleton for front line grunts probably needs at least one materials science break-thru. I would simply point out that there are reasons to expect that AI might move those breakthroughs along. Let me just throw out some metrics we should should be thinking about. If the suit can either let a soldier carry twice the load, twice as far, or carry the current load out with half the fatigue you are talking real increases in combat capability. And since our armored trooper is running on battery power anyway he would probably have access to better comms and sensors. The real game changer comes in each soldiers personnel weapon can basically be used as a remote weapons station. So he can hide in the bottom of a slit trench with a few feet of cable connecting hi to his rifle/grenade launcher. Now I know everyones next statement is why does the soldier have to be there at all? But there are going to have to be some numbers of people far forward enough to verify the  ground truth of what all the sensors and robots are sending back, or you are one hack from total, epic, failure. It is quite possible said armored troopers job is never use his own weapon unless the plan has gone to heck, if things are working as they should his entire job might be coordinating a squad or a platoon worth of robots, while doing his level best to be invisible. There is a real possibility this becomes the technological sweet spot in land warfare for how ever many decades it takes us to develop lethal robotic insects in quantity.

There is also a nasty little sting in the tail for structuring your force this way. it would be almost useless for any mission that required much or any really contact with a civilian population. You would need completely separate units for a lot of low intensity, or consolidation missions, where there is more to it than a combination of extreme lethality, and extremely low signature right across the spectrum. 

[Beleg85]

Clip from Krynki village (Dnieper area).

Entire Russian squad being stopped in their feet and wiped out by what apperas to be Ukrainian snipers or MG's. Later they may be given drone-born grandes.

 

[acrashb]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There is a real possibility this becomes the technological sweet spot in land warfare for how ever many decades it takes us to develop lethal robotic insects in quantity.

It won't be decades, it's already in the funnel:

https://www.wired.com/2007/01/military-builds-robotic-insects/

And my favourite, the Black Hornet Nano.  Add a mere 3gr of C4, and you have a short-range (which is enough), slaughterbot:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Hornet_Nano

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Russian tanks running into some anti-tank mines.

I know you all can't get enough of ATACMS footage around here. We have been waiting to see it for long enough.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Harmon Rabb