How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, Kraft said:

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

Weird history this guy has with his articles

Holy crap!  Talk about not knowing WTF he was talking about at the time.  I checked our internal discussion that was following the revolution and the first couple years of the war and his name didn't turn up in it.  We pilloried a lot of journalists back then so it looks like we missed one.

Well, the article was pessimistic and grim, definitely a predetermined effort to view the glass as half empty.  Other than that, though, I didn't see anything screamingly wrong about it.

It's pretty clear that Ukraine needs to rest, but I agree it can't do so with a cease fire.  I think what it is aiming to do, and it is what I'd do in their shoes, is make sure that every day that goes by some number of millions of Dollars of Russia's equipment gets destroyed and its ability to sustain forces at the front degrades.  It could be that a sort of hybrid conventional/resistance model might work.

As per the X posting above... I still do not believe time is on Russia's side.  I've been making this point since the first days of the war.  Russia is an occupation force that is being actively, and effectively, challenged by.  That makes it unsustainable and that means time is not on Russia's side.  The problem with this is that time is not necessarily on Ukraine's side either.  Which is also a point I still believe in.

Steve

[The_Capt]

49 minutes ago, Kraft said:

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

Weird history this guy has with his articles

Aw, now I miss John Kettler...

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

First ones & then others hit by ATGMs or tank shells, it looks like

First three likely cought mines. Last one likely got ATGM or the shell.

[Haiduk]

Some news from Zaporizhzia front.

It's claimed TOS-1A was destroyed. I can't confirm is this new video or not, but explosion and shockwave is epic.

Russian 1st battalion "Atal" of 1251st MRR of Territorial Troops was struck on the move in Zaporizhzhia oblast yesterday. Initial number was 120 men killed and wounded, today first lists have appeared, containing 19 KIA and 40 WIA. Likely this is not all, because soldiers on video say many of people burned or were teared apart, so they can be MIA. 

 

Russian EW asset Krasukha-4M  was hit on Zaporizhzhia direction. This system can affect aviation/UAV/satellite radars on the range 300 km as well as control channels of UAVs

 

In last 2-3 days UKR forces had siginficant success (in copmparison with past month), pishing back Russian troops west from Robotyne (blue zones on the map below). Reportedly Russian 108th air-assault regiment couldn't stand more and rtreated from positions toward Kopani. Some sources pointed out small advance of UKR troops toward Myrne village, in bypass of heavy fortified positions around Nesterianka (not marked on DeepState map)

 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

In last days, there were numerous flights in Kalinigrad (and accompanied NATO SIGINT assets inside our borders). I am not sure about validity of the conclusion presented here, but there is very notable move of muscovite forces from the enclave.

 

[Beleg85]

Also, entire short article by Zaluzhny available here if someone wants to read it (nafo parody account, but valid):

https://nitter.net/jabuttee/status/1719798891502289064#m

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

In last days, there were numerous flights in Kalinigrad (and accompanied NATO SIGINT assets inside our borders). I am not sure about validity of the conclusion presented here, but there is very notable move of muscovite forces from the enclave.

 

One of version I've read today - Russians are moving S-400 complex vehicles to substitute taken out ones after ATACAMS strike near Luhansk about week ago. 

[Haiduk]

UKR troops in Krynky, left bank of Dnipro

And how they reach left bank. Small river, which soldiers crossed is Konka.

Meanwhile UKR troops on left bank have strong support not only with artillery, but also FPV drones of "Magyar birds". Here they destroyed three BTR-82A

Geoconfirmed Russian vehicles, destroyed on left bank in recent days

[danfrodo]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR troops in Krynky, left bank of Dnipro

And how they reach left bank. Small river, which soldiers crossed is Konka.

Meanwhile UKR troops on left bank have strong support not only with artillery, but also FPV drones of "Magyar birds". Here they destroyed three BTR-82A

Geoconfirmed Russian vehicles, destroyed on left bank in recent days

Wow, once again Haiduk bringing some very very interesting news. 

The video of the burning RU column, was that ambushed?  I hear a lot of small arms so it doesn't seem like just artillery strike.  Losing basically an entire RU company is some much needed good news.

And looks like some movement west of Robotyne.  Do you think this is some new push by UKR forces?  Or just map adjustment after UKR took a couple fields?  

And is Kherson getting to be something other than a nuisance raid?  So hard to say but certainly getting some RU resources destroyed in that area.

And what are your thoughts on Andiivka?  UKR is holding but RU just keeps throwing men into the cauldron.  That salient for UKR could get into trouble if RU advances much more.  

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

The video of the burning RU column, was that ambushed?  I hear a lot of small arms so it doesn't seem like just artillery strike.  Losing basically an entire RU company is some much needed good news.

The first report I saw said it was HIMARS. I'm guessing the small arms sound is ammo going off in burning vehicles, of which there were a few.

[cyrano01]

On 10/31/2023 at 7:55 PM, Hapless said:

If we're looking at a battlespace where high signature vehicles are prohibitively vulnerable and low signature infantry is simultaenously survivable and lethal (via calling for precision fires), maybe the way forward is less to try and proof AFVs and more to boost infantry mobility and load carrying ability.

Or, in short: Heinlein probably nailed it.

I was starting to think something similar but I can't help wonder about the likely cost and cost/effectiveness of MI troopers. At what point do the mobility-suited, infantry soldiers start to resemble one-man tankettes for practical purposes? How does their cost-effectiveness stack up against lots of UAVs, probably a mix of FPV and autonomous? Having seen the videos of indidual Russians being pursued by UAVs then how do we avoid "Hapless' Heroes" (I acknowledge we have work to do on your MI platoon name) spending all their time trying to avoid a one-to-one with a suicide drone?

In truth I don't even know where to start in doing any sort of analysis here.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, cyrano01 said:

I was starting to think something similar but I can't help wonder about the likely cost and cost/effectiveness of MI troopers. At what point do the mobility-suited, infantry soldiers start to resemble one-man tankettes for practical purposes? How does their cost-effectiveness stack up against lots of UAVs, probably a mix of FPV and autonomous? Having seen the videos of indidual Russians being pursued by UAVs then how do we avoid "Hapless' Heroes" (I acknowledge we have work to do on your MI platoon name) spending all their time trying to avoid a one-to-one with a suicide drone?

In truth I don't even know where to start in doing any sort of analysis here.

 

Full body armour might be a start but an exco-suit would need to be able to carry the weight and still allow for movement.  Body armour will solve for frag but likely not HEAT or shock, let alone EFP.  Next gen suits could mask thermal signature, or more accurately would have to.  No point armouring up infantry if they look like glow sticks on thermal.

Going to need a lot of investment in materials research along with energy storage.  Of course you would likely have fewer humans forward.  They would be teamed up with unmanned systems to create synthetic mass.  A small four person team with platoons of unmanned ground and air systems could be the new company.  

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian 1st battalion "Atal" of 1251st MRR of Territorial Troops was struck on the move in Zaporizhzhia oblast yesterday. Initial number was 120 men killed and wounded, today first lists have appeared, containing 19 KIA and 40 WIA. Likely this is not all, because soldiers on video say many of people burned or were teared apart, so they can be MIA. 

This plus drone bombers like Magyar is why Russia won't be able to stay in Ukraine forever even if Ukraine switches into consistent, but small scale, corrosive operations.  Russia's forces may not be easily defeated, but they can be easily attritted.  And not just by Russian commanders

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

One of version I've read today - Russians are moving S-400 complex vehicles to substitute taken out ones after ATACAMS strike near Luhansk about week ago. 

I think this is likely.  Some large complex (AD, EW, etc.) is the most likely thing being moved as Russia appears to have long ago removed combat troops out and to Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Glad someone with respect and authority stated the obvious:

Quote

The current situation near Avdiivka is a microcosm of the Russian General Staff’s wider failure to internalize and disseminate lessons learned by Russian forces during previous failed offensive efforts in Ukraine to other force groupings throughout the theater. 

From ISW's Nov 1 report.  It goes on to detail how the same mistakes continue to be made over time and under different commands, indicating that the primary problem with Russia learning form its mistakes rests at the highest levels of command.  Whether the lower level of commands would do something different if they could is impossible to say because that's not how the Russian system works.

Faithful readers of this thread know how much in rankles me when some annalist declares that Russia is learning from its mistakes   Sure, they are adapting locally, but strategically they are still the same hot mess that they were nearly 2 years ago.

Steve

[MikeyD]

I recall in the early months of the war I made the snarky remark that Russian 'grand strategy' is to basically run the enemy out of missiles, bullets and artillery shells slaughtering Russian soldiers, then when they can no longer shoot back Russia wins the war by default. Its a strategy that's worked for them in the past. But the strategy falls apart when the enemy doesn't, in fact, run out of missiles. bullets and artillery shells.

[Halmbarte]

6 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I recall in the early months of the war I made the snarky remark that Russian 'grand strategy' is to basically run the enemy out of missiles, bullets and artillery shells slaughtering Russian soldiers, then when they can no longer shoot back Russia wins the war by default. Its a strategy that's worked for them in the past. But the strategy falls apart when the enemy doesn't, in fact, run out of missiles. bullets and artillery shells.

It didn't work in WWI very well at all. The early phase of WWII I'll give you the point as taken. Later phase WWII the Sov* was pulling off combined arms operational warfare as good as anyone else in WWII. 

H

*The survivors of the German school of combined arms warfare. Pass/fail, fail = dead. 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Full body armour might be a start but an exco-suit would need to be able to carry the weight and still allow for movement.  Body armour will solve for frag but likely not HEAT or shock, let alone EFP.  Next gen suits could mask thermal signature, or more accurately would have to.  No point armouring up infantry if they look like glow sticks on thermal.

Going to need a lot of investment in materials research along with energy storage.  Of course you would likely have fewer humans forward.  They would be teamed up with unmanned systems to create synthetic mass.  A small four person team with platoons of unmanned ground and air systems could be the new company.  

Watling's book has an excellent discussion of many of the details it would take to make a force this robot heavy, and personnel light work. In particular he has a detailed discussion of how much bandwidth can be counted on in a EW heavy peer to peer environment. And of course the less bandwidth that can be assured, the more autonomy you need. 

 

[Grossman]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap!  Talk about not knowing WTF he was talking about at the time.  I checked our internal discussion that was following the revolution and the first couple years of the war and his name didn't turn up in it.  We pilloried a lot of journalists back then so it looks like we missed one.

Well, the article was pessimistic and grim, definitely a predetermined effort to view the glass as half empty.  Other than that, though, I didn't see anything screamingly wrong about it.

It's pretty clear that Ukraine needs to rest, but I agree it can't do so with a cease fire.  I think what it is aiming to do, and it is what I'd do in their shoes, is make sure that every day that goes by some number of millions of Dollars of Russia's equipment gets destroyed and its ability to sustain forces at the front degrades.  It could be that a sort of hybrid conventional/resistance model might work.

As per the X posting above... I still do not believe time is on Russia's side.  I've been making this point since the first days of the war.  Russia is an occupation force that is being actively, and effectively, challenged by.  That makes it unsustainable and that means time is not on Russia's side.  The problem with this is that time is not necessarily on Ukraine's side either.  Which is also a point I still believe in.

Steve

Besides. Europe, Ukraine and the Europeans cannot afford a ceasefire. The invasion is defining the EU border. And no-one can afford to have the Russians in Crimea, dominating the Black Sea and the trade routes. All know this, the Germans particularly. Russia has proven to be a very bad apple, has to be pushed back to its borders and left to rot, it save itself. It will be a long conflict, which will be decided in the end up logistics, economics and men. Russia is not favoured in either. 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Watling's book has an excellent discussion of many of the details it would take to make a force this robot heavy, and personnel light work. In particular he has a detailed discussion of how much bandwidth can be counted on in a EW heavy peer to peer environment. And of course the less bandwidth that can be assured, the more autonomy you need. 

 

I think the race to fully autonomous unmanned systems is a given.  The only communication requirements will be for battlefield situational awareness and some pretty hands off direction.

EW is like tracers, it cuts both ways.  Pumping a bunch of energy into the environment is “loud” and draws fire, Russians learned this the hard way.

In the West we are heading towards a legal crisis - do we retain full human control of weapon systems or do we want to win?  It is more complicated and nuanced than this but at the core we are facing a thorny issue.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, MikeyD said:

I recall in the early months of the war I made the snarky remark that Russian 'grand strategy' is to basically run the enemy out of missiles, bullets and artillery shells slaughtering Russian soldiers, then when they can no longer shoot back Russia wins the war by default. Its a strategy that's worked for them in the past. But the strategy falls apart when the enemy doesn't, in fact, run out of missiles. bullets and artillery shells.

[cesmonkey]

 

[Blazing 88's]

Snagged from winSPMBT forum:

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/11/army-gets-its-hands-on-new-high-power-microwave-prototype-from-epirus/

WASHINGTON —The US Army has accepted delivery of Epirus’s first high-power microwave prototype for a new developmental initiative aimed at protecting soldiers and facilities from swarms of aerial drones, the company announced today.

The delivery marks the first of four prototypes derived from the company’s Leonidas counter-unmanned aircraft systems (cUAS) system that Epirus owes the service after inking a nearly three-year, $66.1 million contract in December 2022 for the Indirect Fire Protection Capability–High-Power Microwave (IFPC-HPM) initiative. A company spokesman told Breaking Defense the plan is to now deliver the second directed energy weapon to the Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office (RCCTO) by the end of December and complete delivery of the full platoon of four IFPC-HPMs early next year.

RELATED LINK: To counter drones, Army seeks layers rather than ‘silver bullets’

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Edited November 2, 2023 by Blazing 88's

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like the Russians tried a breaching push in Vuhledar and got spanked:

Another attempt at their fantasy of gaining the rest of Donetsk or just a distraction attack?  If I were to give Russians some credit of intelligence I'd say distraction attack, but...

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

More footage of the failed Russian attack in the Kupyansk area yesterday: