How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

About yesterday assault of Avdiivka. 

There are rumors Putin yesterday visited HQ of SMO in Rostov and generals decided to make him a "gift" with massive assault of Avdiivka, which had to break UKR defense, but...

UKR servicemen and TGs claims this was heaviest assault of the city, which by number of involved vehciles even spat out the assault of Oct 10. Then Russians used many infantry, supported with heavy aviation and artilelry trikes and armor. In this time they attacked very strong with mass of armor in three directions on northern flank. Their primary objective was the slag heap again. 

Russian armored columns had from 5 to 30 vehicles! 

Also a difference with previous assault - in this time Russians reportedly attacked most;y with regular units with support of DPR, when at Oct 10 main forces of attacks were Shtorm Z and DPR units with some suport of Russian regulars

Here is known episode with BTR column from other point of view  - in elimination of this attack participated at least elements of four units - 1st tank brigade, 3rd SOF regiment, 116th TD brigade and some artilelry unit.

I suppose BTRs are belonged to 15th motor-rifle "peacemaking" brigade of 2nd CAA, Central millitary district, which was moved here from Svatove direction together with 21st motor-rifle brigade. And both were deployed on northern flank. 15th one of few motor-rifle brigades, armed with BTRs, not BMPs 

For yestrday GS isuued these crazy numbers - of course this is exaggregation, but level of Russian losses for Oct 19 was really colossal

By the news of last hours, Russians continue desperate attacks not counting with losses. Reportedly they had some success near slag heap and it in grey zone now. Putin needs a victory to 4th of November - Day of National unity. 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About yesterday assault of Avdiivka. 

There are rumors Putin yesterday visited HQ of SMO in Rostov and generals decided to make him a "gift" with massive assault of Avdiivka, which had to break UKR defense, but...

UKR servicemen and TGs claims this was heaviest assault of the city, which by number of involved vehciles even spat out the assault of Oct 10. Then Russians used many infantry, supported with heavy aviation and artilelry trikes and armor. In this time they attacked very strong with mass of armor in three directions on northern flank. Their primary objective was the slag heap again. 

Russian armored columns had from 5 to 30 vehicles! 

Also a difference with previous assault - in this time Russians reportedly attacked most;y with regular units with support of DPR, when at Oct 10 main forces of attacks were Shtorm Z and DPR units with some suport of Russian regulars

Here is known episode with BTR column from other point of view  - in elimination of this attack participated at least elements of four units - 1st tank brigade, 3rd SOF regiment, 116th TD brigade and some artilelry unit.

I suppose BTRs belonged to 15th motor-rifle "peacemaking" brigade of 2nd CAA, Central millitary district, which was moved here from Svatove direction together with 21st motor-rifle brigade. And both were deployed on northern flank.

For yestrday GS isuued this numbers - of course this is exaggregation, but level of Russian losses for Oct 19 was really colossal

By the news of last hours, Russians continue desperate attacks not counting with losses. Reportedly they had some success near slag heap and it in grey zone now. Putin needs a victory to 4th of November - Day of National unity. 

Perhaps we will get to see that nice new Abrams unit come in to bat clean up. It would be terrible if the Russians wound up a a kilometer or two behind their start line when it was all over with.

[LongLeftFlank]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There are rumors Putin yesterday visited HQ of SMO in Rostov and generals decided to make him a "gift" with massive assault of Avdiivka, which had to break UKR defense, but...

 

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Perhaps we will get to see that nice new Abrams unit come in to bat clean up. It would be terrible if the Russians wound up a a kilometer or two behind their start line when it was all over with.

That's been the case for lots of these RU operations.  A lot of RU casualties, a little advance, then UKR counterattacks/probes into these smashed RU units and pushes them back to the original start lines or a little further.

[acrashb]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

CMBS reflects reality of 2011-2012

Agreed, which is why I put a "winking face" -  - after that line.

Having said that, reading your response was interesting, so thanks!

[akd]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Shame the quality of the video is so crappy!  I would like to watch that in real time without edits.

Looks like a mine plow tank in the lead with a large number of BTRs behind it, probably a full company's worth.  A couple BTRs take DCIPM hits but keep on moving, but one is knocked out completely which divides the column into two segments.  The lead one gets right up to what is probably its objective (treeline) and then heads back with its BTRs following it!  One takes a KO hit the others keep retreating.  Meanwhile, the rear portion tries to go around the knocked out BTR and no less than three hit mines and are incapacitated.  The column continues to take DCIPM hits.  Dismounted infantry try to get to the woodline and continue to be peppered with DCIPM.

I think we've seen some stills from the aftermath of this battle.

Steve

Longer version (Roosterfied, should have bleeped out the “ain’ts”):

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by akd

[akd]

Ukrainian version:

Russian version:

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Longer version (Roosterfied, should have bleeped out the “ain’ts”):

 

This is a primer on how to defeat us.  We are going to be limited to the wars where we can establish air superiority…and that is damned hard wrt UAS.  

It wasn’t the artillery in that video that was the central problem.  It was the video itself.  That entire RA armoured attack was butt naked to the sky and detected probably a zip code away.  Dropping the sky on it from a bunch of different systems was just the finish.  

I am not sure how to build a bubble around that assault in the modern era.  Even if, especially if, it was one of ours.  

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is a primer on how to defeat us.  We are going to be limited to the wars where we can establish air superiority…and that is damned hard wrt UAS.  

It wasn’t the artillery in that video that was the central problem.  It was the video itself.  That entire RA armoured attack was butt naked to the sky and detected probably a zip code away.  Dropping the sky on it from a bunch of different systems was just the finish.  

I am not sure how to build a bubble around that assault in the modern era.  Even if, especially if, it was one of ours.  

There has to be some combination of lasers, drones that kill drones, and tunable jammers that can literally listen for the drones frequency and then swamp it. If that combination is not technically feasible we are back to my $100,000 ghillie suit, and doing everything VERY slowly. The age of denial and drone on drone combat as the new face of war may be upon us. The new book from the RUSI guy has truly mind bending specs on what can be achieved with military grade sensor hardware, as opposed to Chinese toys. Think being able to ID people at kilometers, and vehicles at tens of kilometers with passive sensors in five different ways, ten times that if the systems go active. Of course a zillion Chinese toys may be better in the end than fewer better platforms. It is going to be on heck of a new arms race.

Edit; Hopefully he will forgive a brief quotation "

“a vibrometer is substantially more sensitive, being able to listen – for example – to a pigeon’s heartbeat at 30 km.”

Excerpt From
The Arms of the Future
Jack Watling
https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewBook?id=0
This material may be protected by copyright.

Edited October 21, 2023 by dan/california

[Offshoot]

Funny

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

There has to be some combination of lasers, drones that kill drones, and tunable jammers that can literally listen for the drones frequency and then swamp it. If that combination is not technically feasible we are back to my $100,000 ghillie suit, and doing everything VERY slowly. The age of denial and drone on drone combat as the new face of war may be upon us. The new book from the RUSI guy has truly mind bending specs on what can be achieved with military grade sensor hardware, as opposed to Chinese toys. Think being able to ID people at kilometers, and vehicles at tens of kilometers with passive sensors in five different ways, ten times that if the systems go active. Of course a zillion Chinese toys may be better in the end than fewer better platforms. It is going to be on heck of a new arms race.

Edit; Hopefully he will forgive a brief quotation "

“a vibrometer is substantially more sensitive, being able to listen – for example – to a pigeon’s heartbeat at 30 km.”

Excerpt From
The Arms of the Future
Jack Watling
https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewBook?id=0
This material may be protected by copyright.

Why bother with the $100K ghillie suit with a person inside?  Just wrap it around an autonomous robot.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Why bother with the $100K ghillie suit with a person inside?  Just wrap it around an autonomous robot.

You need a few flesh and blood people as far forward as possible to ensure your network isn't feeding you crap. There has been an unpleasant demonstration of this recently.

[Hapless]

Something I can't believe I never thought of before: distant low flying aircraft can be engaged by MANPADS at a shallow angle... for example, out a window. Maybe best finding a much bigger room to absorb that backblast though.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Something I can't believe I never thought of before: distant low flying aircraft can be engaged by MANPADS at a shallow angle... for example, out a window. Maybe best finding a much bigger room to absorb that backblast though.

 

This video with falling Russian jet (not showing here) was issued two days ago like a video, being demonstarted to Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. But this is example of very bad propaganda - I can't say either this guy to shoot at Russian jet exactly in Avdiivka, but showed in next scene falling Russian plane is Su-30, downed in spring 2022. 

[Haiduk]

47th mech.brigade "Magura" is moved to Avdiivka sector. Or at least one of their battalions on Bradleys. 

Ukrainian film director Oleh Sentsov, who is an officer in this brigade, has written a post in FB about their actions during repelling of Russian zreg-rush, where he was slightly wounded. Alas UKR attempt to recapture the tree-line was unsuccessful - they at the start completely lost one assault group, other two could seize enemy positions and held them some time, until other group was pished back with losses by arriving Russian reserves. Sentsov's group held own part of trenches, when they had seen six arriving tanks, with infantry, who sit on the top so dense like monkeys on the tree. Russian column didn't spotted them an passed along, so UKR soldiers shelled last tanks with small-arms and killed several Russian infantrymen. Further under pressure of Russian attacks, they received an order to withdraw. Two Bradleys covered their maneuver. Group of Sentsov had only one wounded from 13 men, second group had bigger losses, some soldiers counting as MIA, the third group was lost completely by KIA.

Some people in comments says to author of tweet Viacheslav Sikora, who reposted the screen of Sentsov's FB, that 47th brigade is on Zaporizhzhia front and he was wrong, saying this is about Avdiivka, but in comments one of soldiers of this brigade told he is in the same batatlion with Sentsov and they are now moved to Avdiivka

So, maybe this video of Bradley, firing at tree-line, occupied by Russians already filmed near Avdiivka, not near Vervbove as claimed in this tweet. Terrain is more similar to Avdiivka area

 

Edited October 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile on left bank of Dnipro. No UKR sources, some UKR servicemen made a posts with demand to shut up about developments, so only Russian sources we have, but they are often contraversal.

 

 

Krynky is a very narrow and very long village (about 9 km with attached dachas) in two parallel streets along Konka river. In its SW part Krynky is gradually passes into Kozachi Laheri village and in NE part into Korsunka village. In previous reports UKR troops were spotted in SW and NW parts 

Kostiantyn Mashovets wrote Russians hastly moves reserves to this sector - particularly elements of 126th coastal defense motor-rifle brigade and 127th recon brigade. Poulet Voulant marked also 177th naval infantry regiment there, but I doubt about this.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Hapless said:

Something I can't believe I never thought of before: distant low flying aircraft can be engaged by MANPADS at a shallow angle... for example, out a window. Maybe best finding a much bigger room to absorb that backblast though.

 

Betcha his vibrometer went off on that one. 

[cesmonkey]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Meanwhile on left bank of Dnipro. No UKR sources, some UKR servicemen made a posts with demand to shut up about developments, so only Russian sources we have, but they are often contraversal.

 

 

Krynky is a very narrow and very long village (about 9 km with attached dachas) in two parallel streets along Konka river. In its SW part Krynky is gradually passes into Kozachi Laheri village and in NE part into Korsunka village. In previous reports UKR troops were spotted in SW and NW parts 

Kostiantyn Mashovets wrote Russians hastly moves reserves to this sector - particularly elements of 126th coastal defense motor-rifle brigade and 127th recon brigade. Poulet Voulant marked also 177th naval infantry regiment there, but I doubt about this.

Two Majors followed up with this:
https://t.me/dva_majors/27771
 

Quote

An interesting point is suggested by comrades from the field.

It is very difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to gain a foothold north of the Konka River; our units also operate in that area.

The difference in views of fighters from neighboring units may be due to the fact that the front line is not continuous due to the terrain and in some places is more of a gray zone than a line of combat contact.

The main thing is that ours held back the first onslaught and got organized.

 

[Offshoot]

22 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

Fair enough. Maybe 1917 works better. The Entente had figured out that what they had done in 1915 and 1916 wasn't working and were experimenting but still hadn't figured out how to achieve that elusive breakthrough. Although historical analogies never align 100%.

Add this to the analogy

Quote

Russians are digging tunnels in Avdiivka to get closer to the Ukrainian positions, says the spokesman of the 110th Brigade Anton Kotsukon': "They are digging tunnels closer to our positions, firstly, for the purpose of camouflage, and, secondly, to emerge somewhere closer to our positions unexpectedly"

 

[akd]

More Avdiivka carnage.  Looks like aftermath of assault that got DPICM’d at end.

[Battlefront.com]

11 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Funny

 

That was bizarre even by Russian propaganda standards.  She spent most of her time saying how normal and happy everything is, contrary to the world's perceptions.  Then she highlighted the things which show that the world's perceptions are spot on.  Why go through all that work to disprove something and then undermine the premise?

I know Russian propaganda very often deliberately creates contradiction and uncertainty, but this didn't seem to be a time to do that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This video with falling Russian jet (not showing here) was issued two days ago like a video, being demonstarted to Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. But this is example of very bad propaganda - I can't say either this guy to shoot at Russian jet exactly in Avdiivka, but showed in next scene falling Russian plane is Su-30, downed in spring 2022. 

I remember a video from around that time that showed a Ukrainian soldier inside a building firing inside a confined space, just like this video.  Somewhere in southern Luhansk IIRC.  But in that one the guy filming kept the camera on and stepped to the window so you could see there was a hit.  There was also a lot of cheering

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That was bizarre even by Russian propaganda standards.  She spent most of her time saying how normal and happy everything is, contrary to the world's perceptions.  Then she highlighted the things which show that the world's perceptions are spot on.  Why go through all that work to disprove something and then undermine the premise?

I know Russian propaganda very often deliberately creates contradiction and uncertainty, but this didn't seem to be a time to do that.

Steve

Well, she is speaking to a Russian audience after all, where guidance by the honoured chekisty would not be considered unusual.

BTW, this may be an U-L in the Spetsnaz-in-Alaska category, but I heard once the only foreign airline allowed to fly into Pyongyang in the 1970s was SAS, owing to an arrangement under which 'stewardesses' furnished post-flight services to the Dear Leader (who picked up the blonde habit whilst at boarding school in Switzerland).

All in the name of Juche of course!

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Betcha his vibrometer went off on that one.

 

The vibration of a pigeon's heart over Shanghai or sumfink.

As a complement to @dan/california's $100k ghillie suits, there could also be a war profiteering future in faking human heartbeats and heat signatures.

[Haiduk]

Locals reported about loud explosion in area of Berdiansk airport