How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

On 10/14/2023 at 4:45 AM, Battlefront.com said:

First, this wasn't strategic or massive in any sense of either word. 

Particularly Avdiivka is not "strategic offensive", but it shouldn't be considered as something separate and local. 

First. Political reasons. Of course everybody know Putin will win presidental elections in 2024, but Russian authorities critically need any significant success on frontline to boost it in media as confirmation of right startegy of war, which will lead to future victory.

But Russian authorities play dangerous game. There are rumors about conflict between Gerasimov and some generals, who keep Putin in warm bath (or Putin, who want to be in warm bath - no matter). Gerasimov demands immediate mobilization of 300 000 people in order to prepare them for several month, else as if he claims, exists a real risk of catastrophe if UKR troops early of later break through southern front. Because will no reserves to stop them by weakened units. As alternative he offered to withdraw troops to Tokmak to save their capabilities, but this was rejected. So, Russian authotities in front of coming elections can't do both unpopular things - neither to make "a gesture of free will", nor announcing mobilization, because this can rise social unstability and entail additional significant expences. 

So, was choosen the variant of alsmot simultainous offensive operations in four locatins, which if all four are successfull, this can be sold as "4 Putin's strikes" (by analogy with 10 Stalin's strikes) or as "Strategical offensive", "radical fracture of the war" etc.  But if only one of them is successful this also can be sold by TV-propaganda. According to probability theory if you try more, you have more chances to get the desired result.

So these operations are:

- Kupiansk (we retook large railroad node! We revenged Balakliya! )

- Lyman (we liberated heroical town! We threw UKR in Oskol river! We revenged Balakliya!). According to Mashovets Lyman operation can be most complicated in four stages and now we can see the first stage in Makiivka area.

- Avdiivka (we encircled and destroyed southands of banderites in heavy fortified )

- Novomykhailivka (we secure our new railroad which we built from Rostov through Mariupol and Volnovakha) 

And looks like Russian political and military leaders main bet put on Avdiivka. Here should be classical Soviet-style blitzkrieg with artyllery wall of fire, massive airstrikes and bulk attacks of the armor. Avdiivka has open terrain, not so forestry and riverine like Kupiansk and Lyman and more fiercely defended by UKR, then "unpopular" Novomykhailivka, so TV will get nice picture.

Here opinions of around-mulitary TG "Colonel Shuvalov" - Avdiivka was a main bet. 

According to other Russian TG Avdiivla operation had to be finished with full success up to 4th of November - new Russian holiday, actively boostng by state propaganda - "The Day of national unity" (timed to "expelling of Polish intervents from Moscow in 1612). 

Here is Russian forces involved in this operation (by Mashovets). I notice, that Avdiivka operation is not only near the town itself - this is zone from Pisky/Pervomaiske on NW to Krasnohorivka/Novokalynove and N-20 road on the north 

Main forces - 1st Army Corps of DPR of 8th CAA of Southern military district

Additional forces: elements of 150th and 20th MRDs of 8th CAA, 21st motor-rifle brigade of 2nd CAA, Central military district, couple of Territorial Troops regiments 

Total:

Separate motor-rifle brigades - 8

Motor-rifle and tank regiments - 15

Separate rifle regimenys - 11

Separate tank battalion - 1

Separate motor-rifle battalion - 1

Separate rifle battalions - 22

BARS and Shtorm Z units of about battalion size - 3

Reserves:

Separate motor-rifle brigade - 1 (21st motor-rifle, already entered to the battlle north from Krasnohorivka)

motor-rifle regiments - 3

rifle reserve batatlions - 7

BARS - 1

But all this armada has uneven level of personnel and vehicles staffing

 

 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Hapless said:

Now this is a solid demonstrator for the advantages of cluster munitions over conventional.

*How* is that "a solid demonstrator for the advantages of cluster munitions over conventional"?

[Hapless]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

*How* is that "a solid demonstrator for the advantages of cluster munitions over conventional"?

Because a unitary HE munition hitting in the same place would have missed.

[JonS]

Oh?

Interesting logic.

[Haiduk]

We'll see. This guy says in comments that number of Russian losses, issued by our General Staff in these days are close to reality

 

 

[dan/california]

Beleg, I am seeing hints of good news about the Polish Election. Is it hopium? Do we actually know anything yet?

 

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Beleg, I am seeing hints of good news about the Polish Election. Is it hopium? Do we actually know anything yet?

 

Exit polls show a 5 point margin and a 248 seat majority for the (small d) democrats. But *exit polls* so hang in there.

[Boche]

On 10/9/2023 at 11:23 PM, Haiduk said:

Lucky UKR tank crew - Russian soldier hide in the house and shot RPG at the tank, when it faced the gun in other side. But the projectille ricoсheted from the pillar and then tank destroyed this house.

 

 

I'm late catching up you've all probably commented on this already...

But that a "Combat Mission Moment" if ive ever seen one.

[Harmon Rabb]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Exit polls show a 5 point margin and a 248 seat majority for the (small d) democrats. But *exit polls* so hang in there.

Lets wait for the final results. Last time I jumped the gun and trusted exit polls regarding the Slovak election, I think we all ended up disappointed here.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Boche said:

But that a "Combat Mission Moment" if ive ever seen one.

But in CM projectille would fly through the pole (flavor object) and wouldn't ricocheted )

[Splinty]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

But in CM projectille would fly through the pole (flavor object) and wouldn't ricocheted )

Replace the pole with a tree and in CM it would hit every time! lol

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

Two operations highly dependent on operational security. Both against opponents with strong skills in intelligence, ISR, sigint. Both from regimes notorious for their implacable cultures of control and suspicion of outsiders. 

No. Categorically.

I am confused.  Are you saying there is a link based on operation, culture and regime?  Or not a link in-spite of the similarities?

[Boche]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

But in CM projectille would fly through the pole (flavor object) and wouldn't ricocheted )

Well I was talking about trees. I think most got it ^^

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Splinty said:

Replace the pole with a tree and in CM it would hit every time! lol

AI hates trees? )

[dan/california]

Apparently sticking things in the meat grinder hurts so badly they have decided to stop.

[TheVulture]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am confused.  Are you saying there is a link based on operation, culture and regime?  Or not a link in-spite of the similarities?

I think he's saying that both countries are extremely unlikely to have shared their plans with anyone else (i.e each other) based on those traits.

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am confused.  Are you saying there is a link based on operation, culture and regime?  Or not a link in-spite of the similarities?

Not a link. I mean...if you were Hamas looking at reporting since 2/22 that makes it clear the US is literally reading over Putin's shoulder are you going to coordinate a highly secrecy dependent attack on Israel with Moscow? Categorically no.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Not a link. I mean...if you were Hamas looking at reporting since 2/22 that makes it clear the US is literally reading over Putin's shoulder are you going to coordinate a highly secrecy dependent attack on Israel with Moscow? Categorically no.

Ah gotcha.  Agreed.  I mean it was also Putin’s Birthday but sometimes crap just happens.  Hamas does not need Russia and its sharing plans would have been a liability.  At most Iran may have communicated something, but even that is a pretty big stretch.  As to Russia pulling strings to make Hamas dance?  Well, I would have to see some pretty hefty evidence to believe it.

Edited October 15, 2023 by The_Capt

[Kinophile]

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_himars_and_m270_will_fire_twice_as_far_with_new_glsdb_precision_bombs_delivered_this_winter-8240.html

[hcrof]

Now that the latest russian offensive seems to be winding down, what do we know about the damage they did? They claim to have gained fire control over logistics routes and they have made some progress in the north. Is Avdiivka under threat at all? 

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_himars_and_m270_will_fire_twice_as_far_with_new_glsdb_precision_bombs_delivered_this_winter-8240.html

I have read several contradictory things about what launches these. Some sources say they can be fired from Himars/M270, and some sources say the launch from their own shipping container launch system. Separate question, would the SDBs this thing is launching be able to use any seeker heads beside GPS? If they have some ability to strike moving targets that could be really useful for hitting trains, among other things.

Edited October 15, 2023 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Were you following the events this summer in Ukraine's counter-offensive?

If Ukraine had helicopters equipped with long-range hellfire missiles, they could also do what the Russians have been doing to Ukraine's armored assaults.

https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf
 

 

That is questionable. The lack of ZSU  SHORAD is what enabled the RUS helos. But when UKR got a counter tactic in place (I believe they pushed MANPAD teams further forward, plus (I assume) better integration with local ISR and mech AAD), the KA slowly backed off. 

RUS however has a much stronger tactical AA/AD envelope.  Unless ZSU does an focussed anti-AD campaign similar to the HIMARSing of RUS arty then UKR helos will die like flies in a furnace. 

Edited October 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Beleg, I am seeing hints of good news about the Polish Election. Is it hopium? Do we actually know anything yet?

We need to wait several days and not jump out to conclusions, but it seems there will be weak advantage of non-right parties that in theory can create a government if manage to agree on it. Still there is a lot of procedural and dirty tricks (including forming minority government) that PiS can do if wants and we are very early in the polling. Probably it will take 2 days to know results.

Worth to note, that for Ukraine it means nothing new. Resources are already given up or depleted, PL is firmly in NATO camp anyway and every party is stounchly anti-Russian. Only small, far-right Confederacy tried to build their capital on free-market and often anti-Ukrainian sentiments, but, despite serious worries of reaching up to 15%, they seem to fail miserably, finishing barely above the 5% threshold. Society did not accept their "sceptical" UA rhetoric and suspicious "eastern" connections of several  of its more  crazy members (anti-vaxers, paleoliberals and similar kind of guys). Which is perhaps most important here; their partition in government could in theory change county's internationals stance.

Edited October 15, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

We need to wait several days and not jump out to conclusions, but it seems there will be weak advantage of non-right parties that in theory can create a government if manage to agree on it. Still there is a lot of procedural and dirty tricks (including forming minority government) that PiS can do if wants and we are very early in the polling. Probably it will take 2 days to know results.

Worth to note, that for Ukraine it means nothing new. Resources are already given up or depleted, PL is firmly in NATO camp anyway and every party is stounchly anti-Russian. Only small, far-right Confederacy tried to build their capital on free-market and often anti-Ukrainian sentiments, but, despite serious worries of reaching up to 15%, they seem to fail miserably, finishing barely above the 5% threshold. Society did not accept their "sceptical" UA rhetoric and suspicious "eastern" connections of several  of its more  crazy members (anti-vaxers, paleoliberals and similar kind of guys). Which is perhaps most important here; their partition in government could in theory change county's internationals stance.

Many thanks for checking in. This week we will take any hint of good news we can get. 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ah gotcha.  Agreed.  I mean it was also Putin’s Birthday but sometimes crap just happens.  Hamas does not need Russia and its sharing plans would have been a liability.  At most Iran may have communicated something, but even that is a pretty big stretch.  As to Russia pulling strings to make Hamas dance?  Well, I would have to see some pretty hefty evidence to believe it.

Also the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war and the eve of a historic agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

The only similarities with the RU "offensive" are that it's the same week and Iran is providing weapons to both (but I doubt coordinating with either, let alone both).