How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[holoween]

34 minutes ago, Kraft said:

All this only works if the enemy is not reacting, its like a manual, easy to write and print. Reality is different often enough.

Which is btw why i dint quote a manual but linked a video showing it done in ukraine.

47 minutes ago, Kraft said:

The moment a unit with resources spots these vehicles ATGM crews will move out, FPV drones will cause mobility kills and artillery will do the rest.

The typical sequence ive seen is Arty from approach til the end of the fight, ATGMs joining in in the main fight and FPV drones largely finishing off abandoned vehicles or harassing outside of the main fight.

50 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Especially since the main fighting happens in areas direct fire vehicles have little effect, as the Russian Mobik is a creature of the earth, living deep below the surface

Which is why the tank in the video ive linked wasnt able to deal with the troops in the trench... except wiping them out.

51 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Without good Intel that the enemy lacks certain assets or forcing conditions in which these are occupied/disabled beforehand, staying in the field is suicide.

Without setting conditions every attack is suicide.

52 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Against AI in CM it'll work, against a competent opponent you will lose what you expose!

I only play against human oponents.

And you have to expose yourself eventually as the attacker. The trick is to do it in a way that maximises the combat power difference between you and your oponent at the point of contact.

[Battlefront.com]

We need to keep to the topic of the Ukraine war and only discuss other events if they are tangibly related.  The only possible impact of the Hamas attack I can see is giving the US right wing another excuse to end support for Ukraine.  More of the "we can not walk and chew gum at the same time" nonsense they've been using since the start (i.e. we can't support Taiwan and Ukraine at the same time).

The other possible intersection with the Ukraine war is if Israel attacks Iran in a meaningful way.  This could create some difficulties in the Russian-Iranian supply chain.  However, Iran has already transferred production expertise to Russia so I don't think there's much to disrupt any more.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, kluge said:

1-2 extra hours of darkness is at most a minor tactical advantage. I doubt there will be a significant increase in nighttime tempo over what is already happening now.

Wrong! Tokmak is at 47.2 degrees north. I live at 47 degrees. In the summer, 16 hours of sunlight. In the winter 8. Yuuuuge difference.

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

The moment a unit with resources spots these vehicles ATGM crews will move out, FPV drones will cause mobility kills and artillery will do the rest.

The vehicles wont do much supporting after that and will just be lost with little additional gain.

Yeah, I’m surprised the tank sat up front for as a long as it did. How many rounds did it fire? 10? I gotta imagine there’s a better way to accurately suppress the enemy positions with less risk ie drones, mortar etc.

Edited October 7, 2023 by kimbosbread

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I said about their policy to Russia. 

Yes. Because it's sadly to see, how many politics of countries, who establised powerful military allince to withstand USSR (which was most stronger and more adequate than modern Russia) and protect "democracy values" now tack tails between legs, when they have seen a perspective of not "easy walk" like in Yugoslavia or Iraq, but clashing with much stronger evil forces, who claim to push West out from world top.  

If West supplied us with weapon for the same "democracy values protection" with the same zeal and preserverance, as it forced us to disarm themselves in 90th-2000th, we could expell Russians more quickly with less number of victims.

Richard Lugar, senator, author of idea of UKR disarming and Barak Obama in Donetsk, watching over process of artillery shells utilizing. 

 

Last UKR Tu-22M3 utilization in Poltava, 2006. Total in 2002-2006 43 Tu-22M3 and 17 Tu-22M2 were utilized as well as 400 Kh-22 cruise missiles.

Oh even better, let’s double down shall we - now it is all the “West’s fault”.  The US did not “force” anyone to disarm.  Ukraine took the money happily and got rid of mountains of old USSR stocks that would not have shortened you current war at all. Or worse held onto strategic nukes that would have accelerated one.

Regardless, what is unfolding in Israel has nothing to do with their stance on Russia. Or the West not carpet bombing Moscow every time a suicide bomber goes off in Tel Aviv.  In fact beyond some pretty tenuous money trails from Russia buying stuff from Tehran to support their war, that in turn likely funded some Hamas, the link is non-existent.  We could have pounded Russia into sand and Hamas would still be doing this sort of stuff, or do you honestly think deterrence extends that far.

For the record it is in extremely bad taste to post video of slaughtered Israeli civilians and follow up with “I told you so”, especially when the “told” is so far off the mark it borders on John Kettler-level.  It suggests that in your opinion that Israel deserves whatever this is because they have not sent Ukraine enough whatever - statements like that make one wonder just who the hell we are supporting in this war.

Globally, basically the only way you appear to be satisfied is if the US and West essentially start behaving like Russia - that will somehow make the world a better place?  We tried a lot of hard power flexing in the 2000s, we invaded two countries and a whole lot of westerners are left wondering what the freakin point was.  Now we got new messes to deal with and do not need partners we are trying to keep above water telling us “you are doing it wrong” anymore than Ukraine wants us to tell you how to win your war.

[Kraft]

9 minutes ago, holoween said:

1) Which is btw why i dint quote a manual but linked a video showing it done in ukraine.

2) The typical sequence ive seen is Arty from approach til the end of the fight, ATGMs joining in in the main fight and FPV drones largely finishing off abandoned vehicles or harassing outside of the main fight.

3) Which is why the tank in the video ive linked wasnt able to deal with the troops in the trench... except wiping them out.

4) Without setting conditions every attack is suicide.

I only play against human oponents.

And you have to expose yourself eventually as the attacker. The trick is to do it in a way that maximises the combat power difference between you and your oponent at the point of contact.

1) yes and I can spam this board with dozens of videos of vehicles blowing up while in the task of supporting troops, because they lingered a few minutes too long, because it can be done doesnt equate to its the ideal blueprint for all assault operations and claiming 'combined arms still not learned' is a wrong conclusion - Its an ideal, that when it happens, great, when it doesnt results end up on oryx.

2) plenty of FPV kills on vehicles on the move, either to or from combat too. The easy pickings ofc also fpv drones do but they arent "slow" to show up to a fight - but vehicles attempt to not be there when they and other means arrive 

3) its an ideal result, tanks as assault guns work good, but ifvs and APCs not so much. Risk reward, if the enemy is dug in around areas that are hard to get a bearing on, or suspected to be mined - LOS and 'wiping out' becomes difficult. Plenty of videos of Russian tanks blasting forest strips only to be hit by said forest strip

4) conditions can range from abysmal to ideal, attacks  sometimes have to happen despite adverse conditions, maybe this was such a case, where speed mattered above hunting down the very last ATGM launcher nearby(etc).

[kimbosbread]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It suggests that in your opinion that Israel deserves whatever this is because they have not sent Ukraine enough whatever - statements like that make one wonder just who the hell we are supporting in this war.

I think the argument being made is post-90s Israel has stronger ties with Russia than is generally preferred, and as a result did not aid Ukraine as much as it could, and now that Russia is in bed with Iran of all countries to the detriment of Israel, and this could have perhaps been avoided with more Israeli aid. Plus Israel not developing Russia’s drone program, of course.

Personally, I think Israeli aid would have helped, but I don’t think it would have changed the overall situation dramatically unless Israel went all in and said “genocide is bad, and we will commit whatever it takes to stop it”.

[Haiduk]

Palestinians sing on wedding, appealing to Putin to attack harder Ukraine, "to banish them for Palestinian and we will merry on Ukrainain women", to Xi to invade Taiwan "to smash nose of Americans, who make planes for Israel"

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Globally, basically the only way you appear to be satisfied is if the US and West essentially start behaving like Russia - that will somehow make the world a better place?  We tried a lot of hard power flexing in the 2000s, we invaded two countries and a whole lot of westerners are left wondering what the freakin point was.  Now we got new messes to deal with and do not need partners we are trying to keep above water telling us “you are doing it wrong” anymore than Ukraine wants us to tell you how to win your war.

It seems there's been a decade or two when everyone learned the pros and cons of the West (but mostly US) playing the World Police. Lots of people didn't like it.

Now we seem to live in a decade where the West doesn't play world police, or at least is seems to be doing it a lot less. Lot of people also don't like it.

Seems every way is wrong.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, kimbosbread said:

I think the argument being made is post-90s Israel has stronger ties with Russia than is generally preferred, and as a result did not aid Ukraine as much as it could, and now that Russia is in bed with Iran of all countries to the detriment of Israel, and this could have perhaps been avoided with more Israeli aid. Plus Israel not developing Russia’s drone program, of course.

Personally, I think Israeli aid would have helped, but I don’t think it would have changed the overall situation dramatically unless Israel went all in and said “genocide is bad, and we will commit whatever it takes to stop it”.

C'mon, that is really bordering on conspiracy theories we do not want to get into. In fact the logic doesn't even make sense.  Israel had "too strong ties with Russia", yet Russia was also supporting Hamas to conduct an attack of this scale?  So Russia did this because...why?  Israel was already pretty much out of this war, so why open up another front?

Russia is in bed with Iran because they are anti-US/West.  What interest does Russia possibly have in a war in Israel?  In fact if Russia had that sort of pull wouldn't Israel "going all in in Ukraine" simply accelerated what is happening now?  This is drawing links where none exist.  Hamas and Israel have been going to war with each other for over 20 years, they really don't need a Russian (or US) excuse to do so again.

None of this comes close to justify saying that "it is all Israel's fault because Ukraine".  If Israel had somehow really supported Ukraine then Hamas would not be doing whatever this is, I mean seriously?!  

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

It seems there's been a decade or two when everyone learned the pros and cons of the West (but mostly US) playing the World Police. Lots of people didn't like it.

Now we seem to live in a decade where the West doesn't play world police, or at least is seems to be doing it a lot less. Lot of people also don't like it.

Seems every way is wrong.

As an American who has seen this back and forth ("schizophrenic") attitude many times, all I can say is it is very frustrating.  As we say in English "damned if we do, damned if we don't".

I wish we had a real world governing body that could be trusted with rules and enforcement, but we all know that isn't very likely since no nation really wants it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

C'mon, that is really bordering on conspiracy theories we do not want to get into. In fact the logic doesn't even make sense.  Israel had "too strong ties with Russia", yet Russia was also supporting Hamas to conduct an attack of this scale?  So Russia did this because...why?  Israel was already pretty much out of this war, so why open up another front?

Russia is in bed with Iran because they are anti-US/West.  What interest does Russia possibly have in a war in Israel?  In fact if Russia had that sort of pull wouldn't Israel "going all in in Ukraine" simply accelerated what is happening now?  This is drawing links where none exist.  Hamas and Israel have been going to war with each other for over 20 years, they really don't need a Russian (or US) excuse to do so again.

None of this comes close to justify saying that "it is all Israel's fault because Ukraine".  If Israel had somehow really supported Ukraine then Hamas would not be doing whatever this is, I mean seriously?!  

I think it is more likely that Hamas chose this time to attack because it sees the West being preoccupied with Ukraine/Russia, rather than Russia orchestrating this distract the West from Ukraine.  However, it is pretty clear that Israel going to war is favorable for Russia so it's not hard to imagine Hamas having the support of Russia.  But Russia causing this attack on Israel?  Yeah, no.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What interest does Russia possibly have in a war in Israel? 

Zero, probably negative given all the Russians there. But Iran does. And if you (Russia) are buying stuff from Iran, and providing them with a proving ground for their weapons, and giving them unspecified things in return, it’s not hard to imagine this might be used eventually against Israel. And given Iran’s interal political mess, eventually becomes sooner unfortunately.

EDIT: No conspiracy, not Israel’s fault. Would have been nice if Israel hadn’t developed Lancet though!

Edited October 7, 2023 by kimbosbread

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

As an American who has seen this back and forth ("schizophrenic") attitude many times, all I can say is it is very frustrating.  As we say in English "damned if we do, damned if we don't".

I wish we had a real world governing body that could be trusted with rules and enforcement, but we all know that isn't very likely since no nation really wants it.

Steve

In the 90s the US held back and tried to be a team player.  In the 2000s after 9/11 it said "screw that" and started throwing weight around.  It was "wrong" both times according just about everyone.  It is any surprise that a highly conservative-isolationist sentiment is on the rise in US politics?

But hey, we are at the point where a few Palestinian idiots (who are likely to be dead soon) singing at a wedding are being taken as a foreign policy indicator.

Here is a guy who is convinced it was a Russian attack because Hamas used drones: 

https://tvpworld.com/73258518/russia-is-behind-hamas-attacks-on-israel-expert

But hey choose your own truth, I guess:

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/many-albertans-think-global-warming-is-a-hoax-but-ufos-are-real-poll

[kimbosbread]

EDIT: Dupe

Edited October 7, 2023 by kimbosbread

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Zero, probably negative given all the Russians there. But Iran does. And if you (Russia) are buying stuff from Iran, and providing them with a proving ground for their weapons, and giving them unspecified things in return, it’s not hard to imagine this might be used eventually against Israel. And given Iran’s interal political mess, eventually becomes sooner unfortunately.

EDIT: No conspiracy, not Israel’s fault. Would have been if Israel hadn’t developed Lancet though!

Well sure, by that logic I guess the US is in bed with Iran too:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/politics/iranian-drone-parts-13-us-companies-ukraine-russia/index.html

Russia is in bed with Iran because they will do business with each other and both hate the US.  Iran is selling what Russia needs right now, weapons, and they are one of the few countries in the world comfortable doing that.

US just released billions in Iranian assets to get US citizens back:

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-prisoner-swap-sanctions-assets-4e1fa477f8e6af45fb764acd259c2f1a

Is this a US plot to attack Israel because they did not "go all in" on Ukraine too?  All this build up to "Israel should be a global pariah because Ukraine and Hamas proves it."  Complete and utter bovine scatology.
 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Since everyone is talking about this here already.

 

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think it is more likely that Hamas chose this time to attack because it sees the West being preoccupied with Ukraine/Russia, rather than Russia orchestrating this distract the West from Ukraine.  However, it is pretty clear that Israel going to war is favorable for Russia so it's not hard to imagine Hamas having the support of Russia.  But Russia causing this attack on Israel?  Yeah, no.

Steve

I honestly do not even see that link.  Israel does not need anymore western support to deal with Hamas. The IDF is the 15th largest military on the planet by budget and has about 650k thousand troops to pull on.  They are amongst the most modern equipped and trained land forces in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces

Hamas military wing is a fraction of that:

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izz_ad-Din_al-Qassam_Brigades

An although getting some pretty deep pockets for a terror organization, is not in the same league with respect to conventional warfare.  

I am not sure what triggered this whole thing right now, but my money is on internal pressures not international events.

In fact Hamas timing is actually poor.  With the West being distracted and somewhat numb we probably will be less likely to care when the IDF start pounding the ever living crap out of Gaza, followed up by a brutal ground invasion.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

 Ukraine took the money happily and got rid of mountains of old USSR stocks that would not have shortened you current war at all.

Why such noble mission wasn't offered to Russia? Now these "old USSR stocks" Kh-55 and Kh-22 fly to us back, our Scud missiles  were utilized too and we begging for long-range weapon to reach Russian strategic objects.

We were forced to sign different limitations on number of usual weapon, what moved it out of service.  Hundreds of tanks, IFVs, jets, helicopters were stored and gave wide field of weapon business for corupted officials to sell all this "extra" staff to Africa, Asia and Middle East. 

We were forced to utilize all "extra" MANPADS "in order to exclude risks that terrorists will get it" - and during 12 years we utilized 1000 MANPADS, as well as 1,5 millions of small-arms. And continued to do it even in 2015! 

We were forced to sign agreement do not develop missile weapon with a range over 500 km.

We were forced to sign Ottawa Convention and utilize all AP mines except claymors and OZM.

So, how, has the world became safer after we "got rid of old Soviet weapon" in change on toilet paper of Budapesht Memorandum? 

 

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless, what is unfolding in Israel has nothing to do with their stance on Russia.

Directly - nothing. Tangentially - yes. 

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Or the West not carpet bombing Moscow every time a suicide bomber goes off in Tel Aviv. 
For the record it is in extremely bad taste to post video of slaughtered Israeli civilians and follow up with “I told you so”, especially when the “told” is so far off the mark it borders on John Kettler-level.  It suggests that in your opinion that Israel deserves whatever this is because they have not sent Ukraine enough whatever - statements like that make one wonder just who the hell we are supporting in this war.

No need to bomb Moscow. War is money. No money - no war. Bad taste is cowardice and venality of many western political and economical elites, bad tatse to buy Russian resourses and bypass own sanctions, selling them equipment and electronic. Bad taste are families of Russian officilas flying to Europe free for shopping. This "real politic" is bad taste and ugly hypocrisy at all. So, if West will be go on in such way, yes, I will say, you deserve. 

"Capitalists themselves will sell us a rope on which we will hang them" (C) Vladimir Lenin. Despite he was a commi, his words exactly about this situation. 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

Since no one else is listening to Steve about Israel....

I am pro-Israel.  And I am pro-Palestinian.  Meaning they both deserve to live & have a state & have rights.  In my crazy mind Palestinians and Jews are actually all....people.

The attack:  I hope the crazies had fun.  All that will come of this is Israel killing over 10x the number of people it lost, taking land, and becoming more entrenched in hatred.  Like the bus bombings of 20+ years ago, which utterly destroyed the Israeli peace movement.  While great fun for some imbecilic radicals who think they actually achieved something, it will do nothing but bring death, misery and more poverty to the people these idiots claim to represent.  And Netanyahu loooooooves this.  He gets to be big daddy protector now, and he'll pound the hell out of whatever he thinks he needs/wants to in response to this.

[Haiduk]

30 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Would have been nice if Israel hadn’t developed Lancet though!

Israel didn't develop Lancet, but Israel long time had cooperation with Russian developers in UAV technologies. Though Lancet very similar to Hero. This is like Russian Lada - redesigned Fiat. They got "knowhow", they got access to parts and electronic, all other is business of engineers. 

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not sure what triggered this whole thing right now, but my money is on internal pressures not international events.

In fact Hamas timing is actually poor.  With the West being distracted and somewhat numb we probably will be less likely to care when the IDF start pounding the ever living crap out of Gaza, followed up by a brutal ground invasion.

Probably not one answer:

1. Israeli- Saudi deal was reportedly in the making that would likely cut support from some Gulf players and move Palestinian question into second or third-rate case in ME world (if it is not there for a long time there, anyway).

2.Nice round 50 anniversary of Yom Kippur.

3. Hamas doesn't care about civilians in Gaza being bombed; in fact the harder, the better. All will go to jannah. They are in sick, masochistic synergy with Israeli extremists.

4. Despite massive intelligence failures being blame on leaders, Ben Gvir will likely have an golden opportunity now to exchange officers and internal ministry workers for his own. Netanyahu also finally have his white horse he can ride on. I am not suggesting anything conspiratory, but still cannot grab how intelligence failure of this scale was possible ... let's enumerate: anniversary, likely thousands of participants on Hamas side, latest settlers invading Al-Aksa (4th October), rocket launchers being put in the open by dozens...they should be on guard. There are just clips dropping of several Israeli bases reinforced with towers, concrete and full of top armour  being simply ridden down by 8 guys with kalashikovs and rpg's.

I think as military operation, Hamas actions will be worth to study closer, even in context of Ukraine war.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

We were forced to sign Ottawa Convention and utilize all AP mines except claymors and OZM

And this is where I stop listening.  "Forced" to sign the Ottawa treaty.  Sure.  By who?  Bigfoot?

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Why such noble mission wasn't offered to Russia? Now these "old USSR stocks" Kh-55 and Kh-22 fly to us back, our Scud missiles  were utilized too and we begging for long-range weapon to reach Russian strategic objects.

They were!

"May 1990: Gorbachev and Bush Meet at Camp David and Washington
Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met in Washington and Camp David in May 1990. They signed a key elements agreement for a strategic arms treaty, a chemical weapons reduction accord, and a trade agreement reducing barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce. They also concluded several other bilateral accords to increase cultural and scientific exchanges, and maritime and air links. In addition, the two leaders discussed the topics of Lithuania and German unification. Following the summit, President Gorbachev journeyed to Minneapolis to meet local business leaders. The next day, he met with former President Reagan in San Francisco before returning to Moscow."

https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm#:~:text=Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met,barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce.

Hey, you want to paint some nonsense Grampa Simpson rants on how this war you are in is all the US/West's fault - go for it, see how far it gets you in sustaining international support. 

Oh and you totally got me with that picture:

  

Clear indication of a Canadian conspiracy to get into bed with Russia...must be why we forced Ukraine to sign the Ottawa treaty.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

I would hesitate to speculate on Israeli politics, but I can foresee this event being spun both ways by both the American proponents and opponents of more aid to Ukraine.

Yes, sadly, not rationality is there strong point.

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think it is more likely that Hamas chose this time to attack because it sees the West being preoccupied with Ukraine/Russia, rather than Russia orchestrating this distract the West from Ukraine.  However, it is pretty clear that Israel going to war is favorable for Russia so it's not hard to imagine Hamas having the support of Russia.  But Russia causing this attack on Israel?  Yeah, no.

Steve

I think this is generally correct. My two big questions, was this primarily driven by internal factors in the Gaza strip? Or was it inspired/driven by Iran? Hamas and Iran both have significant reasons to be unhappy about a Saudi/Israeli peace deal among other things. And Iran would certainly like a distraction from the fact that yesterday's Peace Prize winner is in Iran's least pleasant prison.

 

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I honestly do not even see that link.  Israel does not need anymore western support to deal with Hamas. The IDF is the 15th largest military on the planet by budget and has about 650k thousand troops to pull on.  They are amongst the most modern equipped and trained land forces in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces

Hamas military wing is a fraction of that:

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izz_ad-Din_al-Qassam_Brigades

An although getting some pretty deep pockets for a terror organization, is not in the same league with respect to conventional warfare.  

I am not sure what triggered this whole thing right now, but my money is on internal pressures not international events.

In fact Hamas timing is actually poor.  With the West being distracted and somewhat numb we probably will be less likely to care when the IDF start pounding the ever living crap out of Gaza, followed up by a brutal ground invasion.

You are generally correct, and I suspect the Israelis are going to reoccupy most or all of the Gaza Strip at least temporarily. On the other hand We have done a tenth of what we should have on things like 155 production, and the Israelis are about to shoot a non trivial amount of it. This will not make supplying Ukraine any easier.

 

 

SO the big question now is does it stop with the Gaza Strip? Or does Southern Lebanon light off next? Russia and Iran probably didn't plan this, that doesn't mean they won't try to pour gasoline on it. There is a non trivial possibility this thing spreads to the pre existing Syrian mess. Israel invading Syria from the south, at the same moment the Turks invade from the North? Likely, no, a lot more likely than it was yesterday, very most definitely Among other things Iran might decide this is the moment to hold a nuclear test? 

Edited October 7, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

They were!

What does Gorby to do with it if we say about Russia? And how much Russian Kh-xxx cruise missiles were utilized? How many southands tons of artillery shells, moved to Russia from Eastern Europe?

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

"Forced" to sign the Ottawa treaty.  Sure.  By who?  Bigfoot?

Of course, Ukraine decided to get rid of all weaponary by own pure free-will. And weren't any "gentle offers" to sign it from any countries, wasn't any diplomacy discussions... Yes, rose unicornes exist.

Instead recognize that West made huge strategical mistake in 90th making own bet on Russia as guarntor of safetry on post-Soviet space and counting Ukraine as potential "risky country", who could supply weapon to bad guys, which led to idea of disarming of Ukraine, you just tell me about bright elvish US policy, which didn't force anybody to do something. Ridiculous. I remember 1991 when G.Bush arrived to Ukraine and made a statement that Ukraine must stay in "renewed USSR" and rejected to meet with politics-followers of independence. Despite on rising crisis, Ukraine in 90th still in top-five military powers of the world. Who need potential rival? Maybe I should tell here how US during 90th-2000th elimimated nuclear physics research institute in Kyiv? 

We are grateful for support, but you are not doing us a favor with own aid. You are fixing now own wrong choice 30 years ago. You make this not only for us, but for yourself too. If Ukraine lost or even all end by Korean scenario, soon or later you will fight with China or with Russia, or with Iran. or with N.Korea directly. Because they will be convinced, that west is weak and they can do anything.             

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[BFCElvis]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yes, sadly, not rationality is there strong point.

 

I think this is generally correct. My two big questions, was this primarily driven by internal factors in the Gaza strip? Or was it inspired/driven by Iran? Hamas and Iran both have significant reasons to be unhappy about a Saudi/Israeli peace deal among other things. And Iran would certainly like a distraction from the fact that yesterday's Peace Prize winner is in Iran's least pleasant prison.

 

You are generally correct, and I suspect the Israelis are going to reoccupy most or all of the Gaza Strip at least temporarily. On the other hand We have done a tenth of what we should have on things like 155 production, and the Israelis are about to shoot a non trivial amount of it. This will not make supplying Ukraine any easier.

 

 

SO the big question now is does it stop with the Gaza Strip? Or does Southern Lebanon light off next? Russia and Iran probably didn't plan this, that doesn't mean they won't try to pour gasoline on it. There is a non trivial possibility this thing spreads to the pre existing Syrian mess. Israel invading Syria from the south, at the same moment the Turks invade from the North? Likely, no, a lot more likely than it was yesterday, very most definitely Among other things Iran might decide this is the moment to hold a nuclear test? 

  

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We need to keep to the topic of the Ukraine war and only discuss other events if they are tangibly related.  The only possible impact of the Hamas attack I can see is giving the US right wing another excuse to end support for Ukraine.  More of the "we can not walk and chew gum at the same time" nonsense they've been using since the start (i.e. we can't support Taiwan and Ukraine at the same time).

The other possible intersection with the Ukraine war is if Israel attacks Iran in a meaningful way.  This could create some difficulties in the Russian-Iranian supply chain.  However, Iran has already transferred production expertise to Russia so I don't think there's much to disrupt any more.

Steve

Not just you, Dan. But everyone. Yours is just the first post that I grabbed.