How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[A Canadian Cat]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Which is to say that McCarthy apparently was up front about not giving the Dems anything of value instead of making promises he never intended to keep. 

Well at least he was honest about it. Kinda feels like he just gave up and rolled the dice. That didn't work out for one of our former PMs either he infamously and flippantly said his strategy for negotiating the Meech Lake Accord "come down to last minute negotiations and that a “roll of the dice” would be necessary" : https://parli.ca/roll-dice/

[MOS:96B2P]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

McCarthy did a lot worse than that.  He actually attacked Dems on Sunday on Face the Nation claiming they tried to shut down the government when it is only open bc Democrats provided 2/3rds of the votes. 

This wasn’t a murder, it was a suicide.

Hmmm, ........ It might not have been murder but it was at least assisted suicide. 

I read a transcript of the interview.  In the interview McCarthy was very pro-Ukraine.  He did say the Democrats tried to obstruct the passage of the continuing resolution bill.  He went on to provide examples of how the Democrats attempted to obstruct. 

Politically it would make sense for the Democrats to want the CR to not pass if the Republicans got the blame for it. Democrats would love that, especially during an election year.  But McCarthy went against Republican internal rules and used Democrat votes to get the CR passed. Good job RIGHT???

If Democrats had voted down the CR they probably would have gotten some of the blame for a government shut down.  So they also cared about the good of the country and voted for the CR. Heroes all around right??? 

Now McCarthy who is pro-Ukraine, as are most Republicans, should be easy to work with to get funding for Ukraine. Especially now that he has to rely on Democrats to pass stuff he wants.  What a great opportunity to attempt to do what is right and negotiate and compromise. The moderates (Democrats & Republicans) could have come together and been able to govern without the far left "The Squad" and the far right "The Freedom Caucus". But not one Democrat voted to keep McCarthy in the Speaker Job and facilitate the process of governing. The desire to watch the spectacle of moderate Republicans fighting against far right Republicans in the House was to great an opportunity to pass up, especially in an election year.   

If you read the below it does seem like Democrats were not attempting to facilitate a vote on the CR. Why did one Democrat pull the fire alarm just prior to the vote? 

It might not have been murder but it was at least assisted suicide of an opportunity to work together, compromise and maybe govern from the center.     

 

SPEAKER MCCARTHY: Well, well I wasn't sure it was gonna pass. You want to know why? Because the Democrats tried to do everything they can, not to let it pass. 

SPEAKER MCCARTHY: Okay, so let's walk. Let's walk through what actually happened. First of all, the Democrats stood up and did dilatory actions asked to adjourn. So it was that supporting to adjourn? Then they used the Magic Minute. They went as far as pulling the fire alarm not to try to get the bill to come up. Look Democrats stick together, but they did not want the bill. They did not, they were willing to let government shutdown for our military not to be paid. No, I wasn't. We're going to make sure we keep it open while we finish the job we're supposed to do. 

 

[MOS:96B2P]

19 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Meanwhile the budget clock is ticking, and no Ukraine aid bill until there is a Speaker (for those not in the US, no business can be conducted until a Speaker is elected). 

Dave

THIS!!  I should have added this in my above post.

If only the Democrats had used the great opportunity they had once McCarthy was reliant on using Democrat votes. They could have at tried it................ but now the clock is ticking.  

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

THIS!!  I should have added this in my above post.

If only the Democrats had used the great opportunity they had once McCarthy was reliant on using Democrat votes. They could have at tried it................ but now the clock is ticking.  

Problem is the one thing Gaetz was right about is McCarthy has proven he is not trustworthy and this whole debacle is result of a deal he made to get the speakership. 

[billbindc]

20 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Hmmm, ........ It might not have been murder but it was at least assisted suicide. 

I read a transcript of the interview.  In the interview McCarthy was very pro-Ukraine.  He did say the Democrats tried to obstruct the passage of the continuing resolution bill.  He went on to provide examples of how the Democrats attempted to obstruct. 

Politically it would make sense for the Democrats to want the CR to not pass if the Republicans got the blame for it. Democrats would love that, especially during an election year.  But McCarthy went against Republican internal rules and used Democrat votes to get the CR passed. Good job RIGHT???

If Democrats had voted down the CR they probably would have gotten some of the blame for a government shut down.  So they also cared about the good of the country and voted for the CR. Heroes all around right??? 

Now McCarthy who is pro-Ukraine, as are most Republicans, should be easy to work with to get funding for Ukraine. Especially now that he has to rely on Democrats to pass stuff he wants.  What a great opportunity to attempt to do what is right and negotiate and compromise. The moderates (Democrats & Republicans) could have come together and been able to govern without the far left "The Squad" and the far right "The Freedom Caucus". But not one Democrat voted to keep McCarthy in the Speaker Job and facilitate the process of governing. The desire to watch the spectacle of moderate Republicans fighting against far right Republicans in the House was to great an opportunity to pass up, especially in an election year.   

If you read the below it does seem like Democrats were not attempting to facilitate a vote on the CR. Why did one Democrat pull the fire alarm just prior to the vote? 

It might not have been murder but it was at least assisted suicide of an opportunity to work together, compromise and maybe govern from the center.     

 

SPEAKER MCCARTHY: Well, well I wasn't sure it was gonna pass. You want to know why? Because the Democrats tried to do everything they can, not to let it pass. 

SPEAKER MCCARTHY: Okay, so let's walk. Let's walk through what actually happened. First of all, the Democrats stood up and did dilatory actions asked to adjourn. So it was that supporting to adjourn? Then they used the Magic Minute. They went as far as pulling the fire alarm not to try to get the bill to come up. Look Democrats stick together, but they did not want the bill. They did not, they were willing to let government shutdown for our military not to be paid. No, I wasn't. We're going to make sure we keep it open while we finish the job we're supposed to do. 

 

I would respectfully suggest that the guy who made a budget deal during the debt ceiling negotiations and reneged on it, or the guy who intentionally separated out Ukraine aid and attached it to very controversial border legislation, or the guy who could have won many Democratic 'present' votes with small concessions and chose not to is perhaps not the best source for what happened yesterday. For instance, pretty much every characterization of the CR bill above is wrong. 

Anyway, the king is dead and any of his likely replacements (Emmer, Scalise, McHenry) have been fairly strong supporters of Ukraine. As I understand it, there was a deal ready to go before McCarthy mucked it up that is still on the table for a clean vote. As a one vote motion to vacate is likely off the table for any new Speaker, I suspect we'll see that aid come through forthwith barring the usual caveats about bad bounces, etc.

[MOS:96B2P]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

Problem is the one thing Gaetz was right about is McCarthy has proven he is not trustworthy and this whole debacle is result of a deal he made to get the speakership. 

But now he was using Democrat votes. To counter the Freedom caucus he would need to work with Democrats. If you care about doing the right thing isn't at least worth a try? If it didn't work out the Democrats could have voted with the far right in two or three weeks and ousted McCarthy.   Instead the Democrats and far right voted together and here we are. They didn't even try. I guess its more about politics and party power even with something as serious as the Ukraine war in the balance.   

[MOS:96B2P]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I would respectfully suggest that the guy who made a budget deal during the debt ceiling negotiations and reneged on it, or the guy who intentionally separated out Ukraine aid and attached it to very controversial border legislation, or the guy who could have won many Democratic 'present' votes with small concessions and chose not to is perhaps not the best source for what happened yesterday. For instance, pretty much every characterization of the CR bill above is wrong. 

Anyway, the king is dead and any of his likely replacements (Emmer, Scalise, McHenry) have been fairly strong supporters of Ukraine. As I understand it, there was a deal ready to go before McCarthy mucked it up that is still on the table for a clean vote. As a one vote motion to vacate is likely off the table for any new Speaker, I suspect we'll see that aid come through forthwith barring the usual caveats about bad bounces, etc.

I'll look into it some more in case he was not accurate. However, I would have expected the interviewer to call him out on any inaccuracies. She was not giving him an easy softball interview. I don't think she was a fan. 

I'm pretty sure a House Democrat pulled a fire alarm just before the CR vote.  I've seen video of this. 

So, can we agree that at least this one characterization is correct? 

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

I'll look into it some more in case he was not accurate. However, I would have expected the interviewer to call him out on any inaccuracies. She was not giving him an easy softball interview. I don't think she was a fan.

Oh, don't be so sure.  I've seen my fair share of "confrontational" interviews where the reporter fumbled the ball on purpose because if she/he is seen to be too hard then the interview pool shrinks.

Anyway, the facts are pretty clear.  McCarthy couldn't keep control of his own party.  He refused endless opportunities over the past 9 months to realize that catering to the anarchists within his party would never work, but instead he went right down to the ousting vote thinking he could somehow BS his way through without Dem support.  He only needed to get a handful of Dems to vote "present", yet he offered them no reason to do so.

I have had an exceptionally low opinion of McCarthy as a person and as a party leader since long ago.  The only surprise I have after this debacle is that my opinion of him was apparently was too kind.

33 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

I'm pretty sure a House Democrat pulled a fire alarm just before the CR vote.  I've seen video of this. 

So, can we agree that at least this one characterization is correct? 

The Dems are not universally one thing over another, so for sure some wanted to put party or person over country by killing the CR.  But the majority did vote for it, far in excess of GOP that did, and that is what should be focused on.  The Dem party did want the CR to pass, the GOP not so much.

If the Dem Rep is found to have pulled the alarm deliberately (apparently this particular door has been a problem before because Reps apparently don't know how to read) he should be criminally charged (it is against the law to do what he did) and expelled from any committees he might be on.  Personally, I'd also advocate having him put in a stockade in front of Congress... but that's just the medieval in me

Anyhoo, it sucks that we have to talk about domestic US politics.  However, so much for Ukraine is riding on the resolution to this political train wreck that it's important we have some understanding of how bad this is.  A handful of anarchists are being allowed to set national policy because the GOP refuses to take away their power.  It would be great if the next would-be-speaker would take this lesson from McCarthy's failed attempt to negotiate with them, but I fear that it won't be that easy as there doesn't appear to be anybody within the GOP willing to do what needs to be done on behalf of their country or their party because it means going against their personal ambitions.

Steve

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, MOS:96B2P said:

He did say the Democrats tried to obstruct the passage of the continuing resolution bill.  He went on to provide examples of how the Democrats attempted to obstruct. 

They delayed things long enough that they could actually READ what was in the bill, instead of immediately voting on an unseen bill. Either that or trust McCarthy, and they already have experience at that.  That's not obstructing the passage. Obstructing the passage would have been not voting for it, in which case it would not have passed. Not even close.

The fire alarm thing? One guy. One idiot. 

Ukraine aid is going to be a tough balancing act. The next Speaker is going to have to promise the 8 to 20 rebels that there won't be any, and yet, if they try to NOT include Ukraine aid, it won't pass, because no one is going to trust a new Speaker to push a separate Ukraine aid bill after the budget, and not renege on the promise. They could, I suppose, propose both at once, so the bills are all on the docket to vote for - not sure of the exact mechanisms for all that. Basically the Speaker and his minions control what actually gets done in the House.

The end result is that I have NO idea why anyone would even run for the job at this point. What a mess.

Dave

[Butschi]

6 hours ago, poesel said:

The influence on German foreign policy is zero. Since we have so many parties, a small minority of nut jobs cannot take the rest as hostage (at least not that easily). Also, the AfD has failed to participate in any state or federal government so far, and I don't see it happening.

True, the direct influence on German foreign policy is zero. On the other hand, recent polls see the AfD in second place on federal level - ahead of currently ruling SPD (21% vs 17%). No cause for celebration for the currently leading CDU because their options to form a government would also look rather bleak right now with only 26%. On the level of federal states, things look even worse: In 4 out of the 6 East German states polls see AfD as the strongest party. That doesn't mean they will form or join a government any time soon but it would force the other parties to form coalitions they are not going to be happy with.

The other parties seem unable to come up with a real idea how to handle AfD and so instead we see them adopting more and more (milder forms of) AfD positions. So while indeed the direct influence AfD has on German policy in general and foreign policy in particular is still zero, they effectively have a relatively large indirect influence on German policy.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

I'll look into it some more in case he was not accurate. However, I would have expected the interviewer to call him out on any inaccuracies. She was not giving him an easy softball interview. I don't think she was a fan. 

I'm pretty sure a House Democrat pulled a fire alarm just before the CR vote.  I've seen video of this. 

So, can we agree that at least this one characterization is correct? 

That guy who pulled the alarm is an idiot and pretty much the single Dem to buck leadership on the CR. No quibble with that one.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, MOS:96B2P said:

But now he was using Democrat votes. To counter the Freedom caucus he would need to work with Democrats. If you care about doing the right thing isn't at least worth a try? If it didn't work out the Democrats could have voted with the far right in two or three weeks and ousted McCarthy.   Instead the Democrats and far right voted together and here we are. They didn't even try. I guess its more about politics and party power even with something as serious as the Ukraine war in the balance.   

I was about trust, anybody who was paying attention lost all faith in McCarthy after January 6th. He hade broken numerous deals agreements with the Dems after that. People were frantic to read the bill because he hadn't even told them in advance he was doing  a more or less clean CR. They would have been crazy to pass it WITHOUT reading it. And then he offered them nothing on the motion to vacate.

[Kinophile]

Speaking of Ukraine:

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Kinophile

[MOS:96B2P]

24 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

They delayed things long enough that they could actually READ what was in the bill, instead of immediately voting on an unseen bill. Either that or trust McCarthy, and they already have experience at that.  That's not obstructing the passage. Obstructing the passage would have been not voting for it, in which case it would not have passed. Not even close.

Looked into it a bit.  The bill was 71 pages long. That could take some time to read and hopefully was read, at least by staffers.

Also found:   House Democrats attempted to stall a vote on the CR — which contained the majority of their demands, with the exception of funding for Ukraine — in the hopes the Senate would move first on its own clean CR.

So maybe the delay was also because of the lack of funding for Ukraine.  That is a pretty good reason to delay if you think Ukraine funding can get added somehow.  

Also of interest:  Far-right members of the House Republican Conference have been threatening to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy if he relied on Democrats to pass a short-term spending bill. But none of those members brought up the so-called motion to vacate on Saturday.     

I wonder if another, not so noble, reason for the delay was to give more time/opportunity to the far right to go through with their threat and oust McCarthy. Especially after it was known McCarthy was going to use Democrat votes. 

 

53 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Obstructing the passage would have been not voting for it, in which case it would not have passed. Not even close.

It would not be good for the Democrats politically to vote against the CR once it was brought to the floor.  However, if the moderate, Ukraine supporting Republicans, were never able to bring the vote to the floor because of internal chaos / ouster of McCarthy it would be a big Democrat political win in an election year.  There would be NO vote (they were hours away from a shutdown). The Republicans would get the blame for a government shutdown in a very contentious election year. Maybe the Democrats wanted to give the far right Republicans a little more time to screw things up? 

If the moderates on both sides would work together and sideline the far left and far right extremists the world would be a better place. The Democrats could have voted with the far right anytime down the road to get rid of McCarthy. They didn't have to vote with the far right yesterday.  An opportunity was missed with this ouster. I think its fair to say we are in a worse situation today than we were a few days ago. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-special-operations-forces-destroy-085815868.html

Ukraine's Special Operations Forces destroy 7 units of Russian equipment and their field ammunition storage point.

 

Zaporizhzhia front. It would be more accurate to say that a SF drone unit spotted, and artillery with PGMs destroyed the Russian unit. There is video in the article, ~six Excalbur rounds equaled six Russian vehicles, minimum.

[A Canadian Cat]

3 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

If the moderates on both sides would work together and sideline the far left and far right extremists the world would be a better place.

They did. They had a deal. McCarthy stabbed everyone in the back and reneged. Why would anyone trust him again?

4 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

An opportunity was missed with this ouster. I think its fair to say we are in a worse situation today than we were a few days ago

Yes, McCarthy missed an opportunity to do the right thing. He could have put country before party and got the job done a couple of weeks ago but he deiced not to. He got what he deserved. Frankly it looked obvious that he was not going to survive as the speaker no matter what choice he made. I would have thought that would be motivating to do the right thing but he didn't.

[Kinophile]

Crimea is touched again. It's like the ZSU is counting coup... 

 

[Kinophile]

I always like hearing about More AD going to Ukraine. 

And. 

And

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Kinophile

[JonS]

12 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

It would not be good for the Democrats politically to vote against the CR once it was brought to the floor. 

You seem inordinately keen to blame the Democratic Party for the results of the Republican's internal disarray. Why is that?

[Harmon Rabb]

Exclusive: US will transfer weapons seized from Iran to Ukraine (CNN)

Not the first time I have heard of the AFU ending up with Iranian weapons and ammo during the war, but the first time I have heard of the United States sending those over.

 

 

[MOS:96B2P]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I was about trust, anybody who was paying attention lost all faith in McCarthy after January 6th. He hade broken numerous deals agreements with the Dems after that. People were frantic to read the bill because he hadn't even told them in advance he was doing  a more or less clean CR. They would have been crazy to pass it WITHOUT reading it. And then he offered them nothing on the motion to vacate.

I agree they should ALWAYS read the bills, resolutions etc.  That, by itself, is a good reason to delay.  

[Ultradave]

39 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

If the moderates on both sides would work together and sideline the far left and far right extremists the world would be a better place.

Well, that was the bipartisan budget deal that was ALREADY made to get the debt ceiling passed. It already existed. McCarthy reneged on it in an attempt to placate the far-right group. What good did that do?

Dave

[Harmon Rabb]

 AFU Leo tank going in the sunshine.

[Offshoot]

A documentary on Mariupol is set to be released. It couldn't be more timely given the media's attention on "cracks" in Western support for Ukraine.

 

[MOS:96B2P]

24 minutes ago, JonS said:

You seem inordinately keen to blame the Democratic Party for the results of the Republican's internal disarray. Why is that?

I don't think you can blame anyone for the Republican's internal disarray except the far right Republicans. 

I thought that maybe the moderates of both parties could use this as an opportunity to come together, compromise and govern.  I'm not sure what happens now..........   I'm guessing you probably prefer New Zealand's parliamentary system of government better...