How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Suffering from lack of armored vehicles for huge number of new-formed brigades, Ukrainian industry have started in 2023 serial production of BMP-1LB - as claimed IFV (but indeed just tracked APC), based on MT-LBu hull

MT-LB and larger variant MT-LBu in own time were producing in Kharkiv - it's still unknown how much of MT-LBu still in appropriate conditions for remaking. MT-LBu is a paltform for wide number of special military vehicles like artillery control vehicles (1V12 complex: 1V13/14/15), air defense command posts, EW vehicles etc. Likely sharp change of artillery spotting and fire control methods, using of lighter vehicles for this -  even in comparison with ATO times allowed to release many of 1V12 complex vehicles to remake it into APCs (but maybe it still in service at least formally, I can't say, but I didn't see them already long time, using by own purpose). Also maybe some number of vehicles were taken from storages. 

But what we receieve it is really "сheap and cheerful"

What main changes were done:

- special equipment and other things inside were removed to furnish a compartment for infantry. Now vehicle instead 5-6 men can accomodate 10-11 men (driver, gunner, squad leader/vehicle commander and 7-8 soldiers)

- RWS with 14,5 mm KPVT HMG was set in rear part. RWS equipped with day optic and thermal sight. The place of gunner is in infantry compartment

- From the back side enough wide door is made. It's not apparel, but soldiers say disembarking through it quite normal. 

- 14 mm front- and 7-mm side hull armor of original vehicle was too weak, so additional spaced armor plates were mounted

 But these changes have own "back side of medal", which significantly reduced combat value of this vehcile

- KPVT is very sensitive to contamination. Because HMG in RWS is open, the dirt easily gets on the weapon. The system of bullet feeding is also badly designed, so HMG has a big chance to jam both because of dirt and feeding. Because of no more coax MG, in case of jamming/damaging by enemy fire of RWS, this vehicle turned out unarmed.

- Russian YaMZ engines of these vehicles already too old. After refurbishing they have 50 hours of test, but this insufficiently - during the movement engines often fail as well as gearbox

- Increaces weight because of additional armor, RWS and more people inside much more reduced capabilities of old engines. On the paved road BMP-1LB still can give 50 km/h, but on the ground it speed sometime is about speed of infantryman walk. Overheating of engine and increased weight makes maneuvers on this vehicle very hard (tracks also have problems)  

The cost of this behemoth is 380 000 $, and about half of this cost is RWS, assemling abroad, possibly by foreign manufacturer (but maybe and Ukrainian). It quality leaves much to be desired. In comparison, the cost of M113, which much better than this ersatz is about 300 000$

Looks like these armored headache got several 6x th brigades, which counted as "mechanized", but mostly on the paper. One of visually confirmed loss of BMP-1LB was spotted in Kreminna area in June - vehcle was damaged and abandoned because of close hit of likely 500 kg bomb

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[quakerparrot67]

On 9/27/2023 at 6:22 AM, Kraft said:

Interesting little guy riding the bomb into a Russian BMP.

"we'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when....."

 

cheers,

rob

[hcrof]

I have had some more thoughts on armoured vehicle design here:

I see a real need for a modern M113-type vehicle in Ukraine, but have some ideas on how to make it more survivable and more mobile, despite the modern requirement for heavier armour.  I see them being particularly useful for countries like Ukraine and Poland that want to create large land armies on a relatively small budget. 

Head over and tell me what you think!

[Kinophile]

Twitter gives a lot of useful posts but holy **** has it become an understudy for Truth Social. Pretty tired of fighting the algorithms to get to pro Ukrainian factual posts,  and not pro-russian fascist garbage. 

Im 99% done with that platform,  was never a fan but saw its utility. The anti-Ukraine slant is at 89 degrees right now. It's  bastardized, biased and in a death spiral. "X" marks the point of impact,  for sure. What a waste. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Kinophile

[Harmon Rabb]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Twitter gives a lot of useful posts but holy **** has it become an understudy for Truth Social. Pretty tired of fighting the algorithms to get to pro Ukrainian factual posts,  and not pro-russian fascist garbage. 

Im 99% done with that platform,  was never a fan but saw its utility. The anti-Ukraine slant is at 89 degrees right now. It's  bastardized, biased and in a death spiral. "X" marks the point of impact,  for sure. What a waste. 

What should we expect when this clown runs "X"? Seriously. I know the situation at the US-Mexico Border is not perfect. But comparing it to a genocidal war is just absurd. If this clown keeps this up I will just delete my "X" account and find another place to follow this war.

 

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Twitter gives a lot of useful posts but holy **** has it become an understudy for Truth Social. Pretty tired of fighting the algorithms to get to pro Ukrainian factual posts,  and not pro-russian fascist garbage. 

Im 99% done with that platform,  was never a fan but saw its utility. The anti-Ukraine slant is at 89 degrees right now. It's  bastardized, biased and in a death spiral. "X" marks the point of impact,  for sure. What a waste. 

Yeah, pretty bad now. I'm on blue sky and hoping that's where the best Ukraine commentary ends up. We'll see. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

What should we expect when this clown runs "X"? Seriously. I know the situation at the US-Mexico Border is not perfect. But comparing it to a genocidal war is just absurd. If this clown keeps this up I will just delete my "X" account and find another place to follow this war.

 

I no longer go searching for information on X.  Instead, I check in with accounts that I know are valid and sometimes poke into the ones they link to.  I hope to see those trusted sources move to non-ideological platform, but until they do I don't envision me leaving X any time soon.

Ironic that Musk and his hard right supporters' turned a supposedly biased Twitter into a definitely biased X.  This is the problem with extremes... if it isn't singing praise for their distorted message, then it has to be because it's biased.

Steve

[Kinophile]

7 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

What should we expect when this clown runs "X"? Seriously. I know the situation at the US-Mexico Border is not perfect. But comparing it to a genocidal war is just absurd. If this clown keeps this up I will just delete my "X" account and find another place to follow this war.

 

I'm minutes away. 

@billbindc Mark Hertling etc are on there eh? Is it worth the shift (whenever it opens up properly) or still a bit thin? 

[billbindc]

18 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I'm minutes away. 

@billbindc Mark Hertling etc are on there eh? Is it worth the shift (whenever it opens up properly) or still a bit thin? 

Still very thin. I'm billbindc at both Twitter and blue sky but still really on the former. I will bail as soon as Musk demands (as he plans to) some form of ID to confirm your account or asks for a penny to have a non-validated account. I suspect that's what will kill the site and perforce create the next thing. 

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Still very thin. I'm billbindc at both Twitter and blue sky but still really on the former. I will bail as soon as Musk demands (as he plans to) some form of ID to confirm your account or asks for a penny to have a non-validated account. I suspect that's what will kill the site and perforce create the next thing. 

Well I got banned on twitter for stating U.S. foreign policy too clearly. But I still check in on five or six accounts every day with the very limited functionality they allow. Doing more and more with threads. It has picked up a lot just recently. Still not followed thru with stated intention to really dig into Telegram, but I get closer by the day.

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Twitter gives a lot of useful posts but holy **** has it become an understudy for Truth Social. Pretty tired of fighting the algorithms to get to pro Ukrainian factual posts,  and not pro-russian fascist garbage. 

Im 99% done with that platform,  was never a fan but saw its utility. The anti-Ukraine slant is at 89 degrees right now. It's  bastardized, biased and in a death spiral. "X" marks the point of impact,  for sure. What a waste. 

Create a Twitter list with your favorite sources on Ukraine, then just monitor that list when you want to look at Ukraine stuff. It makes the experience very focused and precise.
https://help.twitter.com/en/using-x/x-lists
https://business.twitter.com/en/blog/twitter-101-lists.html

[Ales Dvorak]

22 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Looks like he has other pressing concerns.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/department-national-defence-budget-billion-1.6981974

Unbelievable that further cuts are coming

Not good times for him...  I was referring more on " Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre declined to apologize for his standing ovation for Hunka. Eyre, the country's top general, has faced criticism on social media for his actions and can be seen in video footage right near Hunka, smiling and clapping " thing.

[Haiduk]

40 Shakheds were launched this night mainly on Vinnytsia and Odesa oblasts. 30 were intercepted. There was a hit of infrastructure object in Vinnytsia oblast, causing delay of ralroad shedule of 2-3 hours. 

Reportedly one Shakhed crossed Romanian border, turned back and hit some object in Reni port on Danube from the side of Romanian territory.

 

Russians also have struck Kramatorsk with two Iskanders, today was two Iskanders on Zaporizhzhia city outskirts

Edited September 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Next power substation was struck by UKR drone in Bryansk oblast near Pogar settlement

 

[Haiduk]

In these days in Mariupol Russia is condicting show trial of 22 Mariupol defenders, mostly of "Azov" regiment. They are accused in "attempt of power violent takower in DPR, involvement in terrorist organization". Reportedly from these 22 people, almost no real "Azov" fighters - three women, who served in rear unit of regiment on kitchen, all retired in 2021, 9 servicemen also retired themselves from "Azov" in 2018-2021 - in their number former commander of 3rd company and one of the deputies of regiment comamnder, who retired in 2018 by age. All they just lived in Mariupol and around in Donetsk oblast and were detained during filtration. Among of accused also two crewmen of Mi-8 helicopter, downed near Mariupol, during their desperate raid to Azovstal. 

Photo of captives more similar to photos of Nazi or GULAG concentration camp

As a contarst - on the left photo - Russian POW

Edited September 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Not good times for him...  I was referring more on " Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre declined to apologize for his standing ovation for Hunka. Eyre, the country's top general, has faced criticism on social media for his actions and can be seen in video footage right near Hunka, smiling and clapping " thing.

Tough call.  Not sure how much the CDS was briefed before hand (likely not at all).  And the speaker never outlined Hunka’s service record in detail during the ceremony.  He presented the old guy as a “Ukrainian veteran who fought the Russians in the 1st Ukrainian Division” if anyone should have known what that meant it was the CDS but pretty tough decision to sit on one’s hands during a standing ovation for a 98 year old vet based on what he was given.

Not a good look but an apology from him would be taken as political and he likely has been muzzled by government at this point.

[Haiduk]

Russian Su-35, which was recently shot down by friendly fire near Tokmak in objective of UKR "Shark" drone

As claimed Fighterbomber TG this night Russian AD again fired at own jets, but without result (alas). 

He says this incidents take place because of bad communication between aviation and AD units and becuse of identification friend-foe system often doesn't work.

 

Alas, IFF often doesn't work and in UKR aviation and AD. I don't know why. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

In documental film Serhiy Melnyk, chief of Kharkiv garrison told that in Day 1 Russians managed to destroy 90 % of AD around the city. He told Russians of course knew deployment of AD command centers around the city, being built as far as in USSR times and struck them first of all. 

Melnyk asked commander of 302nd AD regiment why he doesn't work and comamder answered he has almost nothing to do this, because his regiment almost detsroyed. Only during next hours and several days, survived S-300PT launchers and other equipment was grouped and engaged the enemy.

On first cadres of video destroyed AD command bunker is shown  

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Ales Dvorak]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

.....[snip].. but pretty tough decision to sit on one’s hands during a standing ovation for a 98 year old vet based on what he was given.

Not a good look but an apology from him would be taken as political and he likely has been muzzled by government at this point.

I know, it will looks like this.

[Haiduk]

Florks are happy ) 

 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Ales Dvorak said:

I know, it will looks like this.

Sure, if you actually have enough information to make the decision.  If this whole thing had gone another way - like the guy had simply served in a non-SS unit, then the CDS would have been snubbing a 98 year old vet, which would have blown up another way.  Given that he was not briefed on who the guy was - no one was, it is unfair to hold him responsible.  Now if evidence comes up that changes that well then you can feel free to splash this photo all you like.

But of course let’s compare the situation of the CDS in Canadian Parliament to a guy who was married to a Jewish woman in Nazi Germany in 1936: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_Landmesser

 

[Ales Dvorak]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Sure, if you actually have enough information to make the decision.  If this whole thing had gone another way - like the guy had simply served in a non-SS unit, then the CDS would have been snubbing a 98 year old vet, which would have blown up another way.  Given that he was not briefed on who the guy was - no one was, it is unfair to hold him responsible.  Now if evidence comes up that changes that well then you can feel free to splash this photo all you like.

 

Ok, I understand that he was not briefed on who the guy was. But now he is. So... time to act.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Ok, I understand that he was not briefed on who the guy was. But now he is. So... time to act.

Act how?  Apologize for what?  “I am sorry I was not briefed?”  “As CDS I don’t do full background checks on everyone who visits Parliament?”  I call BS on that.  

We are becoming so apologist that those apologies do not mean anything anymore.  One can apologize for sins of commission or omission, yet none of these really apply in this situation.  The CDS was called to a special session of Parliament for the President of Ukraine.  Some nitwit 20-something staffer in the Parliamentary Protocol office didn’t double check on another nitwit 20-something staffer in the Speakers office - neither of whom have looked at WW2 history since high-school (and even then all we ever talk about is freakin Normandy).  The CDS stood up to honour a Ukrainian WW2 veteran, with everyone else, and then wound up wearing it when it comes to light that a 15 second Google search could have headed this whole thing off.

He has likely been ordered not to say or do anything while the Prime Minister try’s to stop the bleeding - a Liberal appointed CDS apologizing for “something” is essentially admitting culpability that Gen E is not entitled to and would be highly politicized.  So I am really not sure what the “Act” looks like in this situation.  I guess he could re-iterate that we in the CAF really don’t like Nazis?  Please do not apply for recruitment?  Nazis were really bad and WW2 was pretty big and complicated so please use Google and stop relying on Saving Private Ryan as your sole datapoint?

[chuckdyke]

Very complicated indeed. The words: "I didn't know that helping Finland was a war crime." 

[beardiebloke]

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/urban-warfare-project/id1490714950?i=1000629620464

A few pages ago folks were talking about the lack of basements in CM... this podcast covers some of the issues.  It touches on a lot of topics but not overly in depth, I thought it's a nice a food-for-thought episode.  One of the themes was that a less technologically advanced combatant can try to level the playing field through the use of tunnels and subterranean structures, but not the other way around.  If drones level the ISR playing field enough perhaps it would pay for western armies to think about how they can dig deep, if they haven't already.