How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Stryker of 82nd air-assault brigade in action

 

It's unclear which of these variants are in Ukraine now.  I suppose it's possible that they're getting the latest upgunned versions and the old MGS, but I kinda doubt it.

Steve

[dan/california]

Drone pilots seem to get the hang of it pretty quick.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's unclear which of these variants are in Ukraine now.  I suppose it's possible that they're getting the latest upgunned versions and the old MGS, but I kinda doubt it.

Steve

Yes, I already deleted it, when have seen flags on last cadre

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

If he is "evil-nazi-SSman", why he lives in Canada alredy more than 70 years? Maybe because after the war all former members of Division were verified and didn't found guilty? Like and division itself. Canada, USA and UK gave a shelter to members of "Halychyna" division and they never were given to USSR and under justice, despite several attempts of USSR to initiate pursuit. 

We have had a non trivial number of Nazis slip in from the period after the war. There was even several grave site memorials to SS units put up when they passed. Some people turned a blind eye after the war for some of them. Others just managed to lie convincingly. Most have lived out their lives a few have been found out and prosecuted.

Our speaker of the house is a by partisan appointment that is usually, but not always, a member of the ruling party. Their job is to enforce the house rules and maintain decorum (ish). They do not set the legislative agenda - that falls to the government house leader directed by the PM - a different and more powerful position.

[Hapless]

I first mentioned this concept way back in the thread, but I think we can expand it right down to the tactical for drone warfare:

Forces survive under counter-drone snowdomes enabled by EW and air defence assets.
Under a friendly snowdome, forces fight with drone supremacy (re. artillery direction, strike, logistics etc).
Fighting under an enemy snowdome, in the face of enemy drone supremacy, is suicidal.
The result is stalemate.

However, snowdomes are not impermeable.
Gaps and weaknesses exist due to the effects of terrain, the performance of human operators and the availability and technical characteristics of EW-AD equipment.
An attacker can penetrate snowdomes by exploiting these gaps and weaknesses, then widen them by neutralising EW-AD assets.

If an attacker suceeds in compromising a snowdome, it collapses.
In this case, there is a race between attacker and defender to maximise damage and re-establish the snowdome, respectively.
If the defender is successful, the attack takes on the characteristics of a raid with attacking forces maximising damage before getting caught under the re-established snowdome and being destroyed or forced to evacuate.
If the attacker is successful, the defending forces are destroyed or forced to evacuate, and the attacker can extend their snowdome coverage into the new area.

Rinse and repeat, bite and hold with drones.

Right now, I'd go out on and limb argue that an early interation of this is going on in Ukraine. Drones aren't available in the mass needed to really flood and sanitise compromised areas. Instead, they act as enablers for artillery with some limited strike capability (ie. nade dropping and kamikazes).
So while snowdomes spring up, collapse and flicker on and off along the front, the exploitation element either isn't there to take advantage or is slowly grinding it's way through villages and minefields.

Give it a few years, we'll get there. In the meantime, I think it's a good lens to look through.
And there's probably some air force types looking at it saying "Welcome to our world!"

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, IanL said:

We have had a non trivial number of Nazis slip in from the period after the war. There was even several grave site memorials to SS units put up when they passed. Some people turned a blind eye after the war for some of them. Others just managed to lie convincingly. Most have lived out their lives a few have been found out and prosecuted.

One of the most infamous examples of this in the US was, ironically, a Ukrainian by the name of Demjanjuk:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Demjanjuk

He was found to be a concentration camp guard and was (twice) stripped of his US citizenship before eventually being deported to Germany for trial.

Even if this 14th SS guy in Canada was innocent of any and all criminal activity, it was still dumb as (your exploitive of choice goes here) to have him sitting there in Parliament.  There was nothing to be gained by it, but obviously a lot to lose.

Steve

[akd]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's unclear which of these variants are in Ukraine now.  I suppose it's possible that they're getting the latest upgunned versions and the old MGS, but I kinda doubt it.

Steve

Several of those still have US unit markings, so probably partly training with the Stryker Brigade (2nd CR) in Europe, which definitely has the 30mm and Javelin Strykers, or just random clips.

[cesmonkey]

Interesting article:

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Hapless said:

I first mentioned this concept way back in the thread, but I think we can expand it right down to the tactical for drone warfare:

Forces survive under counter-drone snowdomes enabled by EW and air defence assets.
Under a friendly snowdome, forces fight with drone supremacy (re. artillery direction, strike, logistics etc).
Fighting under an enemy snowdome, in the face of enemy drone supremacy, is suicidal.
The result is stalemate.

However, snowdomes are not impermeable.
Gaps and weaknesses exist due to the effects of terrain, the performance of human operators and the availability and technical characteristics of EW-AD equipment.
An attacker can penetrate snowdomes by exploiting these gaps and weaknesses, then widen them by neutralising EW-AD assets.

If an attacker suceeds in compromising a snowdome, it collapses.
In this case, there is a race between attacker and defender to maximise damage and re-establish the snowdome, respectively.
If the defender is successful, the attack takes on the characteristics of a raid with attacking forces maximising damage before getting caught under the re-established snowdome and being destroyed or forced to evacuate.
If the attacker is successful, the defending forces are destroyed or forced to evacuate, and the attacker can extend their snowdome coverage into the new area.

Rinse and repeat, bite and hold with drones.

Right now, I'd go out on and limb argue that an early interation of this is going on in Ukraine. Drones aren't available in the mass needed to really flood and sanitise compromised areas. Instead, they act as enablers for artillery with some limited strike capability (ie. nade dropping and kamikazes).
So while snowdomes spring up, collapse and flicker on and off along the front, the exploitation element either isn't there to take advantage or is slowly grinding it's way through villages and minefields.

Give it a few years, we'll get there. In the meantime, I think it's a good lens to look through.
And there's probably some air force types looking at it saying "Welcome to our world!"

Funny, I was just about to post something related, though emphasizing one element (I bolded and underlined it above).

Picture a platoon of $5m MBTs protected by a $3m ISR and a $3m air defense vehicles.  Total cost of this force is $26m. 

Scenario 1 - one of the tanks gets stuck in the mud, throws a track, or something similar.  What does happens to the dome?  Does it stay there until the tank is recovered?  Does it have to wait for a new dome to appear to relieve it?  That all takes time, so presumably the force will move on.  Now there's a $5m MBT sitting in a field unprotected from even today's improvised drones.  Which is to say that moving the dome means dramatically increasing the chances of a lost MBT.

Scenario 2 - the ISR or air defense vehicles get hung up.  Someone forgot to check the gas tank, hit a mine, ran into a tree, didn't negotiate a mudhole successfully... the cause isn't important.  What is important is what happens next.  Do the remaining elements move forward without the dome to protect them?  That's putting $23m worth of vehicles at risk of even today's drones.  Or does the entire force sit there until a replacement can be brought up?  How many spare $3m vehicles are just sitting around idle within minutes or an hour of arrival?

Either Scenario - the force hasn't even made it into combat yet and both are facing dire decisions.  If either decides to sit and wait, what are the chances that the enemy's PGM artillery or other PGM capabilities will hold back because "it's not sporting to shoot fish in a barrel"?  So yeah, in both instances the force will be obligated to stay moving.  In Scenario 1 it will likely keep going forward and risk a $5m loss, in Scenario 2 it will likely retreat to base instead of putting $23m at risk.

 

Now, here's the thing.  UGVs will face these very same issues.  Guaranteed.  However, the circumstances would be radically different.  First, the total cost of the force might be $6m instead of $26m.  Second, with so much money and industrial capacity freed up from laboring over heavy armor, there is likely several of these groups active in a section of front instead of just one.  If one gets stalled, another keeps going.  There's also a better chance that a replacement can be hurried into action or, in Scenario 1, recovering the disabled vehicle before it is destroyed.

Absolute worst case for the heavy armored force is $26m and likely a series of unfulfilled objectives, worst case for the UGV force is $6m loss and objectives possibly fulfilled by similar units due to more being on the battlefield.

Steve

[JonS]

14 hours ago, hcrof said:

Happy to hear any constructive criticism of that idea though!

You've just described a one-sided battle in which the only thing the red team have is one 70t tank. In that scenario your outcome sounds plausible.

I don't think your scenario is very plausible, but that's a different conversation.

[Fenris]

Quote

One of the major advantages of western/NATO-supplied IFVs has been their crew survivability, as seen here.

East of Robotyne, a German-supplied Marder 1A3 in Ukrainian service is hit by a Russian ATGM, with the vehicle remaining intact and the entire mounted Ukrainian infantry team successfully exfiltrating into a nearby Ukrainian-held treeline.

 

[Fenris]

Is this a Striker with the mine-roller?  Needs some new tires.  Also shows 3 Marders (set to an annoyingly loud musical accompaniment).  I think these are operating towards Verbove, see post above.

 

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

In Ukraine the question of "Halychyna" division (in 1945 they changed own name on 1st Ukrainian division) is disputable, but let historians study this. Officially they equalized in status with veterans of WWII, who fought in Red Army and UPA. These people lived in hard times and their choice was that. From the point of view of fighting for Ukrainian independence (= liberation from USSR) we can't blame them for their choice. 

Magic around absolving Galizien soldiers from responsibility for warcrimes lies in excluding from their list members of police detachments that were from the same wave of volunteers you mentioned before. These were recruits from OUN-M initially unfit for regular service, directed into auxiliary service outside from frontline divison but later (after its restructurization) amalgamated into- namely 4th and 5th Galician Volunteer SS Police Regiments. They participated in following massacres, together with Germans:

-2.II.1944 Prehoryłe and Smoligów, unkown casualties (investigation still ongoing)

-28.II.1944 Huta Pieniacka, 800+ civilians murdered/ some burned in houses

-12.III.1944 Palikrowy, 368 civilians bound together and machine-gunned

-16.IV.1944 Chodaczkowo Wielkie, 250-850 civilians murdered

-24.VII.1944 Iwonicz- 72 prisoners from AK and Bch taken and shot/bayoneted.

-Numerous pacification actions with numbers of killed below 100 (usually 30 people here, 40 there). There are also relations of singular Jew huntings but since they were formed vey late, they weren't "necessary" anymore on big scale.

-Anti-partisan actions in Yugoslavia, of which less is known (if somebody has some info, feel free to share)

This is what we judge them the for in Europe, not for the fact that they did fight for free Ukraine or not. Even if they weren't in proper SS, they did serve in the same machine, took orders and share its ideological conotations, uniforms and crucially- actions. Also it is not true they were vouched entirely afterwar; there was simply no possibility in post-45 world to entirely check what you did in turmoil of late WWII in these lands; simply burning documents and creating new identity was also not unheard of, albeit to my knowledge less in Galizen itself, as it was kept as coherent unit. Gen. Anders is particulary to blame here too, as he allowed 8 thousands members of former Galizien and UNA (not all of them SS ofc.) to escape to West without checks, giving them Polish passports collectivelly (even late D. Doncev managed to escape this way after pleading with Giedroyc). It's good they were spared the fate of Cossacks, but not that those guilty sliped away.

Overall it's shame somebody in Canadian Parliament allowed such episode to happen (Russian propaganda has a feast on something real...finally), especially given how many Canadian soldiers died fighting SS in Normandy. I observe that lately, perhaps due to novelty that become complicated history of CEE lands suddenly appearing in western public discourse, we get way too lax and uncritical with our global approach to these ideologies, didn't we? We prefer not to see widespread far-right symbolic in AFU, have already difficult discussions about OUN-B past, and now we relativize heritage of even more obvious SS auxilia? Well, that goes fast.

On other side you are right that history of some people joining SS in Central and Eastern Europe was very complex, especially for Balts, crushed between Soviet Scylla and Nazi Haribda. Also not all Ukrainians serving as German auxilia were indeed happy to initially serve along SS, like Pavlo Shandruk, who refused to take over Galizien and only very late in war took command in UNA :https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/Pavlo_Shandruk

 

I hear in some news that Gen. Tieplinski, chief of VDV, was effectively moved from command on Southern front and Gierasimov took over manual control. So fingers crossed it is true. On otehr side, similar situation was suppose to happen many times already.

Edited September 26, 2023 by Beleg85

[Letter from Prague]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I think, 30-40 years ago it would be normal and reporters would be wrote stories how he fought against "Empire of Evil". 

I know in UK and Canada legally exist societies of former "Halychyna" division combatants. 

I think you could plausibly claim that both sides on the Eastern front were fighting against empire of evil. No good guys there.

[dan/california]

NYT checks in on the drone war with a shockingly competent article. It is like their are two completely different sets of reporters running around Ukraine with NYT credentials. One set of them is extremely competent....

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/world/europe/ukraine-budget-drones-russia.html

In a slow-moving counteroffensive against Russian forces that has been reliant at times on the smallest advantages, a fleet of cheap, mostly off-the-shelf drones is providing one for the Ukrainians.

 

 

[Dave2214]

I see a limited number of M1s have arrived in Ukraine. Do they know how to use them effectively? And if so, what tactics will be used to make them operationally relevant? Are they just replacement parts? I hope not and is there a comprehensive plan? I would think those AFVs would be combined with other US equipment like Bradley's and Stykers to create a combined arms maneuver formation if a breakthrough is created. That might help the US intel and warfare ops better win the war.

Dave

[Vic4]

Haven’t seen this article posted here yet.. While the spectre of a RF disintegration per the Capt’s description is possibly the worst case scenario. In contrast; it’s hard to see how the Orwellian loom ever stops spinning with this ideology being perpetually indoctrinated into every Russian generation. With kids in grade school, reading this makes the blood run cold. TLDR: Nazi/Fascist youth are contemporary…

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/24/europe/russia-schools-pro-war-parade-grounds-intl/index.html

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Honestly never even heard of this vehicle before. But one thing that I know is that Italians are known for making great vehicles.

Interestingly enough according to Wikipedia the sources the AFU received this Light Multirole Vehicle from were Italy, Belgium and the Russian military even generously donated.

 

 

[Raptor341]

Very informative posts from @Haiduk and @Beleg85 regarding the 14th SS Division (UKR). 
 

As soon as a I read the headline in the CBC yesterday I knew nothing useful was going to come of this drama. Should he have been given a standing ovation in Parliament, no, but as a country we have already been over this regarding the legal status of former members of the unit (provided there was no evidence of war crimes against civilians). 
 

History is complicated, I don’t need to tell that to anyone in this forum. Does his affiliation with the SS mean that as a Canadian I would have fought him during the war? Yes. Do I blame them to trying to fight against the USSR for the possibility of an eventual independent Ukraine? No. After the war, do I regret the Canadian government giving former members a place here? No. As @Beleg85 pointed out the devil is in the details. So find them out and be clear about it. Presuming he is innocent, then we should all just move on from this, lesson learned. 
 

I get a little upset about a lack of historical context from wider society at times, but as pointed out, a lot of us are learning more about the complex history of CEE since this war started. At least whoever wrote the CBC news article tried to give it some context, it could have been worse. 
 

Edit: Steve also adds extra context to the various reasons why people (non-German) may have voluntarily joined the SS, or later found themselves in it. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Raptor341

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

On other side you are right that history of some people joining SS in Central and Eastern Europe was very complex, especially for Balts, crushed between Soviet Scylla and Nazi Haribda.

This was true for many of the people that the Nazis deliberately targeted for recruitment.  It wasn't hard to get Estonians, for example, to sign up.  And the deeply entrenched anti-Communism streak in Western Europe was easily tapped into for recruits.  As with any group, some joined as true believers and others because they feared the alternatives.  Some joined because they didn't want their country to be left out of all the glory that the Reich had.  Adventurists and people doing it for economic reasons are in there as well.  Hell, quite a few foreign SS volunteers said they did it to impress the ladies.

And this is for the volunteers that truly signed up for the Waffen SS.  Hundreds of thousands became SS members without doing that.  They were in various auxiliary units that were administratively transferred to the SS.  So much so that at the very end of the war Germans were conscripted into the SS without their permission.

Anyway, the point you were making about things being complicated is valid.  We are also both in agreement that there's far too many people that don't even get the simple parts correct.  Canada just got tarred and feathered for a shining example of it.

Steve

P.S.  the BBC news reporting on American Public Radio covered the fiasco as part of their news summary.  Right after talking about Russia's bid to be put back on the UN Human Rights committee.  That's not good company.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Is this a Striker with the mine-roller?  Needs some new tires.  Also shows 3 Marders (set to an annoyingly loud musical accompaniment).  I think these are operating towards Verbove, see post above.

 

Great video!  Yup, that's a Stryker EV (Engineering Vehicle) apparently on its way back from the front while some Marders move up.

This is a great example of one of the old tracked vs. wheeled arguments when the Stryker started to get talked about.  Back then the tracked guys didn't want to hear about how a Stryker could drive on flat tires or even without a couple (they might have to swap some around, though).  Why not?  Because a tracked vehicle hitting a mine means a vehicle that can't move.  Not really a great selling point for tracks, especially in this sort of war!

Steve

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Vic4 said:

Haven’t seen this article posted here yet.. While the spectre of a RF disintegration per the Capt’s description is possibly the worst case scenario. In contrast; it’s hard to see how the Orwellian loom ever stops spinning with this ideology being perpetually indoctrinated into every Russian generation. With kids in grade school, reading this makes the blood run cold. TLDR: Nazi/Fascist youth are contemporary…

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/24/europe/russia-schools-pro-war-parade-grounds-intl/index.html

 

Well, you are correct it is very bad. It is also true that the the more you know about the Russian army the the more you will pay, and the faster and further you will run, to avoid serving. So i am not entirely convinced this is going to work out the way they think, even if it does increase the percentage of future mobiks who can actually load their rifles and point the right end at the enemy.

Edited September 26, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

BTW, for those who do not know the Strykers have what are called "run flat" tires.  This is what we saw going on in the previous video of the Stryker EV driving by the camera.

The run flat tire is basically a solid core within the traditional inflated rubber tire surrounding it.  Should the tire get compromised (flat or shredded) the vehicle is able to drive on the core for about 50km at speeds of up to 80kph.  It is akin to the "doughnut" spare tires found on most cars, except already installed inside your normal inflated tires.

Here's some manufacturer (General Motors):

https://gmdefensive.com/history-of-armoured-vehicle/

As you can see, the second tire on the right side of the Stryker got a little more than flat   that's the one that probably hit the mine.  The first tire appears to still have some air in it, the 3rd and 4th tires are running on the core. It's not a smooth ride, but it is still a ride!

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Our tanker told Leo2 has strange thing with a center of mass and in couple with overweight design and insufficient engine power for this weight, the normal fast driving with forward facing of the gun can lead to such effect as on the photo with teared off turret and other mess.   

Or perhaps simply a matter of inexperienced drivers and insufficient training.

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Magic around absolving Galizien soldiers from responsibility for warcrimes lies in excluding from their list members of police detachments that were from the same wave of volunteers you mentioned before. These were recruits from OUN-M initially unfit for regular service, directed into auxiliary service outside from frontline divison but later (after its restructurization) amalgamated into- namely 4th and 5th Galician Volunteer SS Police Regiments. They participated in following massacres, together with Germans:

-2.II.1944 Prehoryłe and Smoligów, unkown casualties (investigation still ongoing)

-28.II.1944 Huta Pieniacka, 800+ civilians murdered/ some burned in houses

-12.III.1944 Palikrowy, 368 civilians bound together and machine-gunned

-16.IV.1944 Chodaczkowo Wielkie, 250-850 civilians murdered

-24.VII.1944 Iwonicz- 72 prisoners from AK and Bch taken and shot/bayoneted.

-Numerous pacification actions with numbers of killed below 100 (usually 30 people here, 40 there). There are also relations of singular Jew huntings but since they were formed vey late, they weren't "necessary" anymore on big scale.

 

Yes. But let's not forget what Poland did to the Ukrainians after ww 1. After the conquest of Eastern Galicia the Poles started a terror campaign to destroy the Ukrainian identity and according to British observers in 1930/1931 'the Polish terror in Ukraine is worse than anywhere in Europe, they've made Ukraine into a land of despair and destruction' and 'The Ukraine has been turned into a hell under the Polish occupation, the goal of the Polish policy is the erasion of national minorities on paper and in reality'.

The situation was the same in White Russia and the former German territories, both occupied by the Polish army after ww1, but that's another story.

No excuse for Ukrainian attrocites toward Polish civilians, but as background essential to know. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.