How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kimbosbread]

24 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

I am envisioning a game like CM where anything out of LOS is blurred except a radius around drones you control.  This would allow you to plot movement or call-in strikes based upon the limited view you have from the drones.  Of course, you could also layer in occasional updates from satellite or other overhead sources.

CMISR! But seriously, LOS only for drones or eyes on the ground, and EW to blind drones or force them into autonomous mode where they can only send info to you every 5-10 minutes… And then be able to tell drones to go after targets of opportunity according to whatever ruleset you come up with.

This will start feeling a lot more like submarine warfare, where it’s periodic information, and then stuff happens, and then you find out the new state, rinse and repeat.

Edited September 25, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Ultradave]

Apologies if this has already been covered but if so I missed it (not unlikely). 

What we are seeing in Ukraine is pretty much the first widespread and numerous usage of drones, both for observation and for attack - sniping really, even if the sniping is dropping a grenade down a turret hatch, which is pretty impressive to me.

What we aren't seeing is the widespread deployment of drone countermeasures.... yet. Of course there are many types of drones, but most have some characteristics in common, such as optical sensors, a datalink, and an operator on the ground. And by their nature the smaller ones require the operator be reasonably close and not say, in Las Vegas, like some of the US UAVs.

Once a force devises and deploys some countermeasures on a wide scale, this drone effectiveness/tank replacement argument may well die down a lot, with drones becoming another complementary weapon system. 

Could an autonomous system be developed to track and then laser blind small drones that could be mounted on a vehicle, or even small enough that individual AFVs could carry their own? A laser powerful enough to actually disable the drone might require a dedicated vehicle. Don't know - not up on my laser technology. EW capability that could scan for the drone signal (you know it's emitting VERY close to you), and jam it. And yeah, I know all about frequency hopping transmissions, but that doesn't mean there isn't an effort to follow or counteract that, at least enough to disrupt, if not negate the transmission.

Can Russia develop and deploy systems like this in the midst of this war, in enough concentration to be very effective? I'm very doubtful of that. Could other countries already be working on solutions like this for the next conflict? Probably.

Like tank and anti-tank weapons, it will become an another arms race, with more capable and resistant drones and more effective countermeasures against them.

There is a constant similar race in the submarine world (which I'm more familiar with). Sound detection capabilities get better and better, and noise silencing technology gets better and better in order to better hide. Silencing technology is the US submarine world's most closely guarded secrets. 

Dave

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Check out CMCW kids, copies available in the lobby!!

I meant modern tactical games.  Drones aint no fun.  Heck yes CMCW is fun!  Except 1979 is tough as americans.  I love M60s but they struggle against the soviet tanks.  And those awful M113-TOW things -- Damn them, they never spot first and never hit anything.  I'm in a battle 1979 battle right now and not doing well -- against the AI.  That's embarrassing.

[Nastypastie]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I meant modern tactical games.  Drones aint no fun.  Heck yes CMCW is fun!  Except 1979 is tough as americans.  I love M60s but they struggle against the soviet tanks.  And those awful M113-TOW things -- Damn them, they never spot first and never hit anything.  I'm in a battle 1979 battle right now and not doing well -- against the AI.  That's embarrassing.

M113 TOW's are AMAZING if you can get them properly hull down so its literally just a dudes head and the tube poking out. You wind up with literally 20x BMP1's flinging dozens of those horrible ATGM's at you vainly as your crews pick them off one by one.

[danfrodo]

24 minutes ago, Nastypastie said:

M113 TOW's are AMAZING if you can get them properly hull down so its literally just a dudes head and the tube poking out. You wind up with literally 20x BMP1's flinging dozens of those horrible ATGM's at you vainly as your crews pick them off one by one.

totally off topic, will stop here.  I try to be hull down, just barely showing above terrain.  and some sagger or T64 still picks them off.  But sounds like it's a 'me' problem not an equipment problem since you are having success.  

Edited September 25, 2023 by danfrodo

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

system be developed to track and then laser blind small drones that could be mounted on a vehicle, or even small enough that individual AFVs could carry their own?

Adding more stuff to AFVs sounds like @The_Capt's "2.  Anger - We will try to protect the tank, just so we can keep it viable."

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

Like tank and anti-tank weapons, it will become an another arms race, with more capable and resistant drones and more effective countermeasures against them.

No doubt that is happening. a lot of booths at CANSEC this past year were all about drones. There were as many offering drone counters as there were drones.

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Never heard of that band before, but I really enjoyed that song, thanks for sharing.

When I saw the image I immediately thought of some 80s heavy metal music.

Apparently the pilot in the image is this handsome gentlemen named Vadym Voroshylov with the call sign Karaya. Who holds the rank of Major in the Ukrainian Air Force.

I don't have an Instagram account so I can't confirm any of this, I would like to hear what our local expert, @Haiduk on all things AFU has to say about this

 

Yes, this is Vadym Voroshylov (Karaya) - on the jacket a badge with his name is placed. He is 29 y.o, major.On service as a pilot since 2016. Became a best young pilot of Air Force Command "South" in 2017 and best crew of Air Forces in 2020. But in 2021 when his contract finished he has resigned. After 2016-2017 many pilots didn't want to renew contarcts and had been leaving the service. Main problems - too small payment and enormous paper work, Soviet-style army idiotism etc. But after Day 1 he immediately turned back. 

Interesting, his callsign Karaya is the same, which had German WWII ace Eric Hartmann %) 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

20 hours ago, Fenris said:

I keep seeing this.  Why do the Leo's drive around with their turrets pointing to the rear?

 

Our tanker told Leo2 has strange thing with a center of mass and in couple with overweight design and insufficient engine power for this weight, the normal fast driving with forward facing of the gun can lead to such effect as on the photo with teared off turret and other mess.   

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We gotta keep the rotation going.  I think we should have Canada bashing day based on that stunt we just pulled in Parliament as we hosted and celebrated a proud veteran of the Waffen SS.

You have love a proper political screw up, is it going end any careers, besides an aide or three. Asking you as our Canadian expert, as opposed to our staff college instructor.

Edited September 25, 2023 by dan/california

[holoween]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our tanker told Leo2 has strange thing with a center of mass and in couple with overweight design and insufficient engine power for this weight, the normal fast driving with forward facing of the gun can lead to such effect as on the photo with teared off turret and other mess.   

Ok so please dont post things you clearly have no idea about.

This is an a4 which weighs around 55t basically still the initial design weight. Yet the 10t heavier a6 and a7v dont have issues related to the weight. Im not sure what exactly youre trying to say about its center of mass but ive yet to hear anyone having any issues ralated to it but please clarify what you mean. Insufficient engine power also seems entirely unfounded given its got a better power to weight ratio than any soviet legacy tanks. The photo also was of a training accident in poland where two tanks straight up collided which is simply a crew error.

Now to get to what is most likely actually happening

When the tank drives past pay attention to the gun just in front of the smoke extractor. You can see the barrel is clamped down so this is certainly nowhere near the frontline. For long road marches and driving without turret crew the turret is locked to the rear and the gun clamped down. This also lets the driver drive turned out.

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You have love a proper political screw up, is it going end any careers, besides an aide or three. Asking you as our Canadian expert, as opposed to our staff college instructor.

This one is just bad enough that it may get the Speaker of the House to resign - that position is nothing like the ones in the US.  Right now half of the reporters in Ottawa are digging into that old guys past like mad and if they come up with anything really nasty, like the guys unit did some dark stuff, it could push the whole thing over the edge.  Gawd, but we look like the country rubes we are this week. 

[Haiduk]

On 9/24/2023 at 7:13 PM, pintere said:

Never thought I’d live to see the day when a Waffen SS veteran would receive a standing ovation in the parliament of a western country! 

For context, the man is 98 yr old Yaroslav Hunk, a former member of the 14. Waffen-Grenadier-Division of the SS "Galicia".

 

If he is "evil-nazi-SSman", why he lives in Canada alredy more than 70 years? Maybe because after the war all former members of Division were verified and didn't found guilty? Like and division itself. Canada, USA and UK gave a shelter to members of "Halychyna" division and they never were given to USSR and under justice, despite several attempts of USSR to initiate pursuit. 

WWII in Eastern Europe wasn't so black&white like for Western. Here was a war all against all, with situative alliances, double games etc. Germans perfectly played on hatred of western Ukrainians and Baltic states to Stalin's USSR (and not only them),  so local national movements used this idea of national Waffen-der-SS divisons as opportunity to establish own trained regular troops, which would be capable to fight directly with Red Army and not sneak in the forests. Most successful in this were Estonians. Their units fought so tough, that Russians to this time consider Estonians more "fascists", than Lithuania and Latvia, having also own Waffen-der-SS units. I think it's no need to expalain here that "true" SS-division is not the same that Waffen-der-SS division, which had common only structure, equipment and name ranks, but no one in latter wasn't member of SS, because only true "Aryans" could be a members, not untermenshs.  

In western Ukraine, when 14th division was established, about 40 000 of volunteers came to enlist "to fight with Bolsheviks". Whole student classes had been come to enlistment centers. Were all they nazists? Of course, no. Ukrainian wing of OUN (M), led by Melnyk supported idea of regular UKR army establishing under German protectorate, but the wing of OUN (B), led by Bandera was strictly agaisnt any co-operation with German authorities and had seen a way of liberation only in active partisan actions and total uprising. Also most part of western Ukarine was under power of General-Governorship, where regime was more "soft", than in Raichskommissariat Ukraina and was more similar on occupation regime in Western Europe, so for locals German power seemed more "civilized", than USSR, when dozen of southands were sent to Syberia or executed during 1939-1941 (about half of them were ethnic Poles).

In Ukraine the question of "Halychyna" division (in 1945 they changed own name on 1st Ukrainian division) is disputable, but let historians study this. Officially they equalized in status with veterans of WWII, who fought in Red Army and UPA. These people lived in hard times and their choice was that. From the point of view of fighting for Ukrainian independence (= liberation from USSR) we can't blame them for their choice. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

41 minutes ago, holoween said:

Ok so please dont post things you clearly have no idea about.

As popular joke in post-USSR space says: "it's not my moped, I just posted advertisment"  

I just read this opinion of one of our milutary in twitter )

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Hapless]

An interesting one: anti kamikaze drone measures?

... that apparently don't work very well.

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This one is just bad enough that it may get the Speaker of the House to resign - that position is nothing like the ones in the US.  Right now half of the reporters in Ottawa are digging into that old guys past like mad and if they come up with anything really nasty, like the guys unit did some dark stuff, it could push the whole thing over the edge.  Gawd, but we look like the country rubes we are this week. 

I think, 30-40 years ago it would be normal and reporters would be wrote stories how he fought against "Empire of Evil". 

I know in UK and Canada legally exist societies of former "Halychyna" division combatants. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Hapless said:

An interesting one: anti kamikaze drone measures?

... that apparently don't work very well.

Don't work ) Here longer video with drone attack over these nets

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Ultradave said:

What we aren't seeing is the widespread deployment of drone countermeasures.... yet. Of course there are many types of drones, but most have some characteristics in common, such as optical sensors, a datalink, and an operator on the ground. And by their nature the smaller ones require the operator be reasonably close and not say, in Las Vegas, like some of the US UAVs.

Once a force devises and deploys some countermeasures on a wide scale, this drone effectiveness/tank replacement argument may well die down a lot, with drones becoming another complementary weapon system. 

Except that a huge part of the argument to get rid of heavy armor is because of all the non-combat reasons I've restated time and time again (cost to make, cost to keep, cost to deploy, cost to sustain amongst others).

In my view, even if very good drone counter measures come into being I would still want distributed firepower amongst a variety of cow cost, low logistics footprint vehicles which effectively can fulfill the role of heavy armor.

Aside from that, there are a bunch of tried and true ways to decrease the effectiveness of drones.  For example, being 1/10th the size means theoretically 10x the chance of not being spotted.  Low thermal signature compared to heavy armor also is a huge plus.  Some of the UGVs have an all electric capability, making their thermal signature limited to metal being warmer than foliage. 

Accuracy of the drones will need to be radically improved because the current CPM of even the guided types have a pretty good chance of missing an ATV sized vehicle compared to a big tank.  Javelins included.  And this is without taking into consideration thermal and optical sensor issues with a vehicle that can drive in the forest without needing roads.

Then there's the whole argument I've made over and over again about what happens if something is hit.  Even the grenade dropping drones have forced tanks to retreat in fear that the next time they won't be so lucky.  A well placed VOG-17 type grenade can also render much of the fun stuff of a tank inoperable, thus compromising the tank's ability to perform its role.  If a force instead has many, many more UGVs then even if one gets knocked out it's more than likely that the mission can continue as planned.

The list goes on and on and on.  Which is the problem pro-tank guys face when engaging in this debate.  Supporters can play whack-a-mole with the reasons for heavy armor being sidelined, but every time a supporter strikes a mole there's 5 or more others being missed.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Don't work ) Here longer video with drone attack over these nets

 

The reason why drones will rule the battlefield for a long time to come is that drones are inexpensive and successful, but counter measures that are inexpensive are also unsuccessful.  At least for a force on the move.  Gun emplacements, HQ positions, etc. certainly can get protection from netting.  At least against a single drone as we've already seen the equivalent of tandem warheads (tandem drones) defeating nets.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

US taking measures against companies violating Russian sanctions.  Included are some European countries.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4222244-us-sanctions-chinese-russian-companies-over-ukraine-war-technology/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

OK, I finally had the time and brain power to read through ISW's very informative report from yesterday.  I think it can be summed up by this one paragraph intro:

Quote

Russian forces continue to expend significant combat power on counterattacking to hold their current positions and appear to be resisting the operationally sound course of action of falling back to prepared defensive positions further south.

Certainly not news for us here that Russia sucks at counter attacking to the point that pretty much all attacks leave Russia weaker and worse off than the Ukrainian forces being attacked.  This has been true for the entire war.  With the balances of forces being in Ukraine's favor, or at best on par, throwing away combat potential for no gain is unsustainable.  As has been discussed a million times here already, at some point Russia is going to go to the barrel for another scrape and find there isn't anything left.  When that happens Ukraine will be able to advance simply because there's nothing left to stop it.  We seem to be seeing this locally at Verbove.  But if it's going that badly there, it is not wrong to presume there's other sectors that are not far behind.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Last night Russians have conducted "revenge" strike for Sevastopol and destroyed abandoned 10 years ago hotel over sea passenger terminal in Odesa. Terminal also was badly damaged. Russians claimed UKR Naval HQ was placed in this building (idiots). Also grain storage was destroyed in the port, two people were killed and one wounded.

Total Odesa was attacked by 19 Shakeds (all shot down), 12 Kalibrs (11 shot down) and 2 Onix (can't be intercepted)

This is what a hotel (tall buiding) and terminal looked before a war

 

And after attack

The hotel was bad business-idea for this place (it was built in 2001), also it had technical problems, so it functionated as a hotel only ten years  - it was closed and abandoned since 2011. City powers even thought to remove it (it also ruined the view of terminal, which became a one of "visit cards" of Odesa). Looks like Russians resolve a problem with removing 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Today with UKR missile strike was destroyed large ammo dump in Sorokyne (Krasnodon) in Luhansk oblast - it's about 155-160 km from frontline

[Haiduk]

Avenger shoots down cruise missile

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Today with UKR missile strike was destroyed large ammo dump in Sorokyne (Krasnodon) in Luhansk oblast - it's about 155-160 km from frontline

Once again demonstrating that there is only so much Russia can do to adapt to Ukraine's long range strikes.  We are already at the stage where Ukraine can strike and destroy anything on occupied soil and Ukraine has demonstrated some willingness to strike targets within Russia proper.  Russian air defenses definitely aren't coping well with this new threat.

Steve

[Haiduk]

3rd comany of 1st battalion of 71st jager brigade in action near Verbove in trench fight. Soldier, who filmed this was wounded by this grenade explosion