How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Astrophel]

Interesting to follow the several expert opinions on the way military tactics and equipment ought to change in the future according to the lessons learned in Ukraine.  We should include propaganda/information/narratives in the mix.

This war won't be over until the russians stop fighting.  Contrary to all western expectations they just keep on going, despite the lack of equipment, heavy losses, and while confronting the reality daily that most of the "liberated" don't want them.  There are no Nazis.  They have been sold a pack of lies, they don't get paid often, and when they get wounded they probably won't get treatment.  Priggies people even got special training to kill women and children when conquering Ukrainian villages.  Torture is a process in the russian military.  Any western army would have revolted months past.

We need to figure out how to fight brainwashed opponents; the soldiers and the mums knitting socks and dad's sending them cash to buy boots and the factory workers doing extra shifts to make more shells and missiles for killing ukrainian civilians.  If we ever have to fight China the same issue will likely arise as their government has made best efforts to brainwash people too.

The war won't end until the russian stop fighting.

And we should not underestimate the damage being done every day to undermine our resolve with the various troll narratives we are familiar with.  The extreme anti-woke pro-russia wing of the republican party is just one example of powerful lobbies that are susceptible to russian narratives.  Given enough support for the russian narrative this war can be lost.  This is a good illustration of how powerful propaganda can be.

We don't trouble to explain to our own people even that diversity is the main driver for our economic strength.  Boardrooms insisting on more women and minority representation are not doing it for political correctness but because it is more likely to deliver profits than employing the same frat boys wearing the same rings - or in dutch terms, the blue blazer grey trouser boys.

We need to start selling our success story.  These days success is not based on "hegemony", or the kind of serf culture russians and chinese are accustomed to, it is rather based on diversity and democracy, and tolerance of minorities - however chaotic that sometimes is.

We have zero interest in invading russia or china and yet a majority of both those populations feel this is a real potential threat!!!  We need to start telling our story and make sure everybody can listen - we have the technology.  Elon?  Where are you when we really need the X factor?

My confidence in humanity is that we will make the right decision once given the right information.  Should my confidence be misplaced then we will join the dinosaurs, and this time it will all be our own fault.  There is no meteor.

I don't know how you factor hearts and minds into a war game but hearts and minds are more important, arguably, these days, than a new style of artillery.  This war won't end until the russians stop fighting.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Astrophel

[Teufel]

Russian diplomats to Sweden had the following statement issued on X.

Edit: what are these guys thinking? The World fails the autism test, lacks sense of humor or they just too high on their own propaganda to think anybody would reject the President word of truth.

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Teufel

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Spectacularly beautiful forest fire.

 

Year ago, Kherson oblast. But yes, good hit of whole battery with field ammo dump

[riptides]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

If this is true, then on one hand, it's very good news.

But on the other hand, it's also bad news.

Because it's a clear sign that those in charge, with access to good intel on what's actually happening on the ground, are not convinced the Ukrainian offensive is going anywhere fast.

If they thought Ukraine had broken through the hard crust and would soon see big gains, it wouldn't be the time to finally release a weapon that has been held back for so long.

Disagree. It could be the hammer that puts the final nails in the coffin.

IMHO, the Russian, North Korean deals, made this system a priority. Not the counter-offensive. This is to be used as a denial of future ammunition supplies.

[Teufel]

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Year ago, Kherson oblast. But yes, good hit of whole battery with field ammo dump

Very good! Ukrainian bull**** should be treated like Russian, called out when it occurs.

[Teufel]

Account claimed to be in collaboration with Oryx on documenting material losses. Worth noting that both sides have decreased use of tanks and IFV’s in direct operations. Rather keeping them back in fire support for advancing infantry.

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian General Staff in first time officially confirmed UKR forces are present on left bank of Dnipro and hold bidgehead

On Kherson direction our defensers continue to hold seized positions on left bank of Dnipro, conduct counter-battery fire, eliminate ammo dumps and sucessfully strike enemy rears

Russians moved to Kozachi Laheri some new unit - 28th motor-rifle (?) regiment. I couldn't find anything about it, presumably it can belong to X motor-rifle division of new-formed 18th CAA of Southern military district. 

This Russian regiment have been deploying month ago, but can't do anything with UKR bridhead west from village. 

Here they write: 28th regiment RF in Kozachi Laheri area was fu...g butt kicked. As they tried to assault our positions from their two companies only 26 orcs remained. This regiment was formed recently and have been conducting combat running-in. At this pace it will be soon necessary to form again. 

And Russian text below the photo:
Sodiers of 28th regiment have been seeking from commanders at least one EW system a month so far, but all to not avail. As a result - "Baba Yaga" [Russian name of UKR R18 night bomber octocopters] has flew and destroyed single KAMAZ, which supplied with food, water, ammunition and helped our artillerymen. 

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

50 minutes ago, riptides said:

Disagree. It could be the hammer that puts the final nails in the coffin.

IMHO, the Russian, North Korean deals, made this system a priority. Not the counter-offensive. This is to be used as a denial of future ammunition supplies.

I hope you are right, but I don't think the North Korean ammo deal makes that much of a difference in practice.

At least not if Ukraine is winning the artillery war and knocking out 215 (+19 MLRS) Russian artillery systems a week, like they claimed recently. Soon they won't have many guns left to shoot that NK ammo from.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Haiduk]

Some talks from UKR around-military TGs:

- UKR troops repelled Russian counter-attacks on Robotyne and slightly expanded zone of control west from Robotyne to Kopani direction

- Some success was in southern direction toward Novoprokopivka. There are meetening engagements in this area.

- UKR troops several days have been fighting for important height SE of Novoprokopivka, but Russian resistance too hard, so without success for now

- Actions west from Verbove now "on pause". UKR forces couldn't seize height on this direction

- but instead of this UKR troops achieved significant success north and north-west from Verbove as well as pushed Russian troops eastern to Novopokrovka

Edited September 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Some effect fireballs

UKR FPV drone destroyed Russian SP-howitzer east from Vesela Dolyna village (SE from Bakhmut). It's about 9 km from frontline

It's claimed TOS-1A was coocked by UKR R18 drone of 27th brigade of National Guard, but vehicles is under trees, so unclear what exactly was hit

UKR FPV drone hit directly at 240 mm shell, prepared to charge, of 2S4 SP-mortar, causing nice fireball. Lacation Popivka village 5 km SW from Svatove and about 10 km from frontline

 

[billbindc]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So this.  I would also add that they will get smaller and evolve sub-species of loitering munitions.  Right now we mount ISR or guns on them (mortars are going to happen).  We saw a small unmanned water craft hit enemy ships and that was on a big ol flat ocean. UGV loitering munitions can be very small and hide out in the bushes.  When they swarm large vehicle formations all sorts of hell will happen.  And then someone is going to figure out how to build one of these systems that can dig itself in and go silent/hibernate until it needs to wake up and attack.  

Combine this with the systems Steve highlights above, plus some sexy air droppable single shot indirect fire systems that fire freakin self-loitering UAS and we have…wait for it…Denial.  A lot of freakin Denial.  Massive potential for friction that make the Russian minefield belts look quaint - and for giggles, good old fashion landmines are not going anywhere.  And that, is just the stuff we can come up with.  Hand these little monsters to a bunch of teenagers and see what really happens. Toss in more UAS over all this and we basically have an unmanned cloud.  Anyone who tries to “manoeuvre” the old fashion way into that, even with traditional air superiority - because as I have said we do not know what air superiority in the UAS altitude bands (0-2000 feet) even looks like - and they are going to start looking a lot like the RA mess.

If I were China, I would be investing like mad into this space.  In fact any enemies/competitors of the west are likely going to go heavily into this?  Why?  Because you don’t need a trillion dollar military industrial complex to do this - entry costs are much lower. And the opportunity to level the playing field against the US and West is the golden ring everyone who does not like us (and there is a long list) has been reaching for for decades.  The technology is advancing very fast, the costs are dropping and there is a massive incentive to do it.

As usual, William Gibson saw this coming a long time ago: 

"They sent a slamhound on Turner's trail in New Delhi, slotted it to his pheromones and the color of his hair. It caught up with him on a street called Chandni Chauk and came scrambling for his rented BMW through a forest of bare brown legs and pedicab tires. Its core was a kilogram of recrystallized hexogene and flaked TNT.

He didn't see it coming. The last he saw of India was the pink stucco facade of a place called the Khush-Oil Hotel."

 

 

 

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

This is just getting sad. 

I call it Tuberville-ism.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

To add bit of my expertise for once - I was part of robotics project that included drones moving around in buildings and in urban setting (I did some of the programming, not much of the robotics stuff).

This size is probably fine, especially tracked. But I would not expect to see much smaller drone ground vehicles than this. Definitely don't expect something the size of the tiny quadcopters or RC cars. Small wheels suck for moving around even in buildings and in towns, in war terrain with craters everywhere it would just not work. For small ones, flying is much better.

Small UGVs exist for specialized purposes, such as search and rescue being adapted into checking rooms for bad guys (police are starting to use them as well).  Lots of practical limitations, some of which are being worked around with things that go boom (I posted a video of one a million pages ago).

I also expect smaller UGVs for recon, but not combat other than kamikaze attacks.  There's a practical amount of mass that is required to be a weapons platform.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

None of this means that manned attack helicopters are obsolete.

I’m gonna argue for obsolete. The manned attack helicopter rests of several pillars: The vehicle itself, the highly trained flight crew, the maintenance crew, the spare parts, the weapons systems, the fuel truck, and all the logistics to move the damn thing to the front. All of this has an upfront cost and then an ongoing cost, both in terms of money and also strain on the logistics system. And this goes for all of the big shiny expensive manned systems.

For an AH64, the figures I saw online were something like $15m per airframe, $1m per year maintenance, several $m for weapons. In a combat zone, I bet it’s more. For that cost, how likely are you to destroy enemy equipment, and how likely is your helicopter to be destroyed (and how much will that cost you)? What’s the lead time on new pilots, engines, crew chiefs etc. Manpads already make helicopter life risky; AA loitering munitions will bring the extinction risk to high alert.

Compare that to loitering munitions that are expendable, cheap and require minimal support crew, training etc. Ex Lancet, launched off what looks like a boat trailer towed behind a Lada, or your FPV drones that are a guy in a hole with a radio and quadcopter with an RPG strapped to it. The autonomous versions of these are coming very soon, and won’t cost much more.

The total cost per kill just isn’t there for the helicopter, compared to the newer cheaper weapons.

EDIT: The other thing to consider is what if loitering munitions make it impossible to base helicopters within 150km of the front. Doesn’t matter what sort of exotic capabilities they bring to the table if the support system ceases exist as soon as it deploys.

Edited September 9, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Splinty said:

I personally think it's mostly a combination of diplomatic and bureaucratic inertia. Never underestimate the delaying power of "getting all the Is dotted and all the Ts crossed".

THIS.  Ukraine has been working the ATACMS angle for more than a year.  If they finally got enough people signing off on enough bits of paper the deal would happen pretty much no matter what the state of the war is.  Hell, given bureaucracy's long standing reputation, I wouldn't be surprised if ATACMS were shipped en mas even if Russia surrendered completely tomorrow

Steve

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

If this is true, then on one hand, it's very good news.

But on the other hand, it's also bad news.

Because it's a clear sign that those in charge, with access to good intel on what's actually happening on the ground, are not convinced the Ukrainian offensive is going anywhere fast.

If they thought Ukraine had broken through the hard crust and would soon see big gains, it wouldn't be the time to finally release a weapon that has been held back for so long.

There is far too little attention paid to the interplay between Chinese actions and US aid to Ukraine. In this particular case, I suspect that the shoe that dropped was North Korean aid to Russia. Kim quite literally exists at the courtesy of China. He can't do his banking or feed his country without the acquiescence of Beijing. In the last week it has become clear that Xi has agreed to let him send arms to Russia. The US was holding back ATACMS in order to have a card to play to stop that sort of thing from happening. Now that China has decided to allow it, the US is letting them go.

[kimbosbread]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I also expect smaller UGVs for recon, but not combat other than kamikaze attacks.  There's a practical amount of mass that is required to be a weapons platform.

I’m bearish on UGVs for one reason and one reason alone: Navigation on ground is way harder than in the air if you want significant autonomy. Air and sea are way easier. Progress is being made, but it’ll be even harder on the battlefield. The small wheel callout is huge, and robot legs don’t work yet as we don’t have a practical artificial muscle.

Now near term if you’re telling me it’ll drive itself in a convoy follow along on the road, but require remote control on the battlefield, absolutely.

[Letter from Prague]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As usual, William Gibson saw this coming a long time ago: 

"They sent a slamhound on Turner's trail in New Delhi, slotted it to his pheromones and the color of his hair. It caught up with him on a street called Chandni Chauk and came scrambling for his rented BMW through a forest of bare brown legs and pedicab tires. Its core was a kilogram of recrystallized hexogene and flaked TNT.

He didn't see it coming. The last he saw of India was the pink stucco facade of a place called the Khush-Oil Hotel."

 

 

 

This is genuinely one of my favorite paragraphs from any book. The amount of not just information but flavor and imagination put into just few sentences is just incredible. Gibson really is a master of language.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This is because they are currently in an assymetric match-up vs NATO-supplied battlefield AA weapons, which has come about due to the AA being an afterthought in NATO armies which assume air superiority, and Ukrainians not having air superiority. This is a fairly random capability gap, which can is likely to be eliminated before the next war. I think it will be eliminated soon as part of the effort to reclaim superiority in the up to 2000 m. sphere (per the_Capt's excellent post from yesterday)

I agree.  Even with all of the advantages that Russia has, they still have to take extraordinary steps to keep their helicopters from being downed.  And even then it doesn't always work.  In other words, it is barely working and that isn't something you want to feed a brand new massive cost weapon system into.  A-10s still have some usefulness, yet nobody thought it was smart to replace it with a brand new system with similar limitations.  So keep Apaches like A-10s and use the funding for other things.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

Spectacularly beautiful forest fire.

 

WTF did they hit?  That's a pretty long and evenly distributed series of secondary explosions and fire.  A supply column parked along a road?

EDIT - missed Haiduk's response.  OK, year ago.  That makes way more sense.  My sense is that one thing the Russians learned is not to park long columns of stuff near the frontline.  So if this had been recent it would be puzzling.  Now it makes sense that it was situations like this that gave the Russians the bright idea to not park long columns of stuff near the frontline

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There is far too little attention paid to the interplay between Chinese actions and US aid to Ukraine. In this particular case, I suspect that the shoe that dropped was North Korean aid to Russia. Kim quite literally exists at the courtesy of China. He can't do his banking or feed his country without the acquiescence of Beijing. In the last week it has become clear that Xi has agreed to let him send arms to Russia. The US was holding back ATACMS in order to have a card to play to stop that sort of thing from happening. Now that China has decided to allow it, the US is letting them go.

This is the most logical explanation.  For sure, and I mean for sure, ATACMS was being held back as a trump card.  You know the message was communicated, perhaps directly, to China that this was being done.  That photo op and handshake was enough to change the dynamic.

Though what I said about the bureaucracy stuff is still a possibility and the timing is more conicidental.  They could have been 90% on the way to delivery last week and then then Kim and Putin signed the deal so it was announced and the last 10% is being hurried along.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Astrophel said:

Interesting to follow the several expert opinions on the way military tactics and equipment ought to change in the future according to the lessons learned in Ukraine.  We should include propaganda/information/narratives in the mix.

This war won't be over until the russians stop fighting.  Contrary to all western expectations they just keep on going, despite the lack of equipment, heavy losses, and while confronting the reality daily that most of the "liberated" don't want them.  There are no Nazis.  They have been sold a pack of lies, they don't get paid often, and when they get wounded they probably won't get treatment.  Priggies people even got special training to kill women and children when conquering Ukrainian villages.  Torture is a process in the russian military.  Any western army would have revolted months past.

We need to figure out how to fight brainwashed opponents; the soldiers and the mums knitting socks and dad's sending them cash to buy boots and the factory workers doing extra shifts to make more shells and missiles for killing ukrainian civilians.  If we ever have to fight China the same issue will likely arise as their government has made best efforts to brainwash people too.

The war won't end until the russian stop fighting.

And we should not underestimate the damage being done every day to undermine our resolve with the various troll narratives we are familiar with.  The extreme anti-woke pro-russia wing of the republican party is just one example of powerful lobbies that are susceptible to russian narratives.  Given enough support for the russian narrative this war can be lost.  This is a good illustration of how powerful propaganda can be.

We don't trouble to explain to our own people even that diversity is the main driver for our economic strength.  Boardrooms insisting on more women and minority representation are not doing it for political correctness but because it is more likely to deliver profits than employing the same frat boys wearing the same rings - or in dutch terms, the blue blazer grey trouser boys.

We need to start selling our success story.  These days success is not based on "hegemony", or the kind of serf culture russians and chinese are accustomed to, it is rather based on diversity and democracy, and tolerance of minorities - however chaotic that sometimes is.

We have zero interest in invading russia or china and yet a majority of both those populations feel this is a real potential threat!!!  We need to start telling our story and make sure everybody can listen - we have the technology.  Elon?  Where are you when we really need the X factor?

My confidence in humanity is that we will make the right decision once given the right information.  Should my confidence be misplaced then we will join the dinosaurs, and this time it will all be our own fault.  There is no meteor.

I don't know how you factor hearts and minds into a war game but hearts and minds are more important, arguably, these days, than a new style of artillery.  This war won't end until the russians stop fighting.

This is all very true, but the West has been trying to combat Russian disinformation and propaganda for decades.  Recently it was, and to some extent still is, having difficulties combating it even within its own populations.  I don't think there's anything the West can do to effectively change the situation any, other than Putin's regime collapsing and a new regime (at some point) coming about that cares about making the lives of Russians better.

Fortunately, propaganda can only do so much.  At some point, far longer than we'd like, Russia's economy will collapse and with it both the ability and the will to keep fighting.  Which is why we are stuck having to "wait this out" and outlast Russia until this happens.  Fortunately, Ukraine is the most important element in making this happen and they are not showing signs of knuckling under.  Even if the US Republican Party suddenly got a clue, and stopped smoking their own propaganda, if Ukraine gave up it before Russia did this war would be over.  Russia would still have lost, and lost hugely, but Ukraine giving up first would mean it agreeing to concessions that it should never have to make.

Steve

[kevinkin]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

The author is part of the Valdai Club, a Russian thinktank to peddle their lies.

Thanks for the heads up. Appreciate it. Here is a bit more on the writer:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatol_Lieven

Seems that maybe one slice of his life might side with Russia. However, the rest appears to be credible. But what do I know. 

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by kevinkin

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

Account claimed to be in collaboration with Oryx on documenting material losses. Worth noting that both sides have decreased use of tanks and IFV’s in direct operations. Rather keeping them back in fire support for advancing infantry.

The battlefield is so deadly today. It's going to take open minds and other more firepower to break it open. 

[akd]

Yikes