How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

"A week of B52s". 

lolz. 

[Aragorn2002]

On 9/3/2023 at 8:25 PM, Heirloom_Tomato said:

https://imgur.com/gallery/WcprcQ5

A good joke for this thread.

Lol!

[Butschi]

11 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I advocate staring Putin, the mother ****er, down before the US has to enforce a no fly zone or put troops in theater. The Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff forwarded that the US could not break through the entrenchments with the level of combat support the the west has provide Ukraine. This madness is not a video game.  Ever heard the phrase guys "it's my way or the highway"? A nuanced approach to war at this scale kills more people, destroys infrastructure, and will leave wounds for generations. If we don't stare down nuclear blackmail the planet is toast anyway. Get it done USA.   

I must say that I personally don't fancy this kind of preaching. a) If I want to listen to a sermon, I go to church but b) way more importantly, we are the wrong audience: Significantly many of us aren't even US citizens so have zero influence on your government and anyway your representative in congress is the correct recipient and none of those are likely to read your post here.

[Undaunted]

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44775604/air-to-air-missiles-shooting-at-russia-helicopters-drones-in-ukraine/

Quote

Assuming the lighter ASRAAM falls somewhat short of CAMM’s surface-launch performance—say somewhere between 9 and 15 miles—they still would have enough reach to threaten Russia’s jets, drones, and missile-armed helicopters at medium altitude. Bear in mind, though, that maximum-range missile engagements are usually only viable under ideal circumstances.

Ukrainian frontline combat units particularly lack modern, mobile medium-range (or high-end short range) air defenses that can accompany advancing troops and scoot away after firing to avoid retaliatory attacks. ASRAAM should have just enough reach to engage Russian attack helicopters—most commonly, Ka-52s—that are using Vikhr and LMUR missiles (ranges 7-8 miles) to pick off Ukrainian armor at long distances.

Seems like ASRAAM on truck is a viable counter to Ka-52s.

[Bulletpoint]

23 hours ago, Tux said:

If not, what do we make of the fact there seem to be no real signs of serious concern or panic coming from the Russian leadership?  Where is the frantic lashing out and searching for solutions that you might expect of a military that appears to be heading towards at least an operational collapse?

Is it:

1. We are lacking in the information needed due to fog of war and/or biases in the information we have access to.
2. The Russians are incapable of developing at the same pace as the Ukrainians for practical, cultural or economic reasons.
3. The Russians do not actually perceive any serious threat posed by this summer's offensive, to the point that they are happy to sit in their trenches, confident that they will see it through.

 

I'd say it's mostly number 1. And a bit of number 3. Number 2 is pretty much a given.

Ukrainians are much better at fighting a war than the Russians, but they are -MUCH- better than the Russians at propaganda and information warfare. We witness pretty much every success the Ukrainians have, but only very few of the Russian hits.

The Ukrainian "breakthrough" is still only about 10x10 km in size, and the mood still shifts back and forth all the time. Just a couple of weeks ago, many people were starting to doubt the Ukrainian offensive would ever go anywhere. Now the question is "why haven't the Russians collapsed already".

I think the Russian leadership is still not panicking because they still feel reasonably confident that Ukraine will not reach the sea or even take Tokmak before winter. And they think the offensive will then grind to a halt.

[Tux]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I don’t think this is because Russia “won’t” negotiate with their own defeat, it is because they do not know how to.  Or at least the current power regime for Putin and the political power architecture he put in place for over 20 years, this is an unsolvable riddle.  They painted themselves into a box they cannot escape.  To admit defeat or even a negotiated end state is to declare that 1) Russia has no manifest destiny in its Near Abroad, 2) it was driven to a negotiation table by a minor rump state it considered an ersatz province, and 3) Russia is not strong, it is in fact incredibly weak.  For Putin and cronies none of this computes and they will never accept it.  As you note, even if they are pushed all the way back to the old border, they cannot quit if Putin is still in power.  So What?  They only way out is looking more and more like a regime change scenario.  RA military collapse in the field may do this but there are other mechanisms.  Problem will be, which ones do not see the entire thing fall completely apart and spark possible worse?

Indeed.  It's just bloody-minded, mafia-style brinkmanship but they've removed their own options for compromise and are now daring Ukraine and the West to push them into the void and see what happens.

At the moment, as you say, the fact that they are intent on making their defeat as painful as possible for everyone (including themselves) simply betrays the fact that they are no longer negotiating with their own defeat.  Instead they are trying to make the rest of us do it for them.  They want us and Ukraine to decide not to win because we don't want Russia to lose.  So perhaps what needs to happen is that Putin's Russkiy Mir needs to be discredited in other ways even before Ukraine win militarily, in order to remove that psychological and cultural 'safe space' that he and too many other Russians will otherwise retreat to if and when they lose.

How many Stans and African nations can be tempted into visibly closer economic relations with Europe, the US or even (at this point) China?  Can Ukrainian/western security services put together an expose and humiliation of Putin himself?  What exactly did he and that horse get up to after the famous shirtless ride in the wilderness?  Has he been modelling aspects of his private life on Lavrentiy Beria?

It's the mythos behind it all that needs to be attacked in order to properly win this war.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Tux said:

They want us and Ukraine to decide not to win because we don't want Russia to lose.

That is brilliantly put.  I would only add “…lose too much.”  However the longer this drags out I am less sure a soft landing or off-ramp exit for Russia is possible.  They might just break themselves on this rock.

[Tux]

57 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the Russian leadership is still not panicking because they still feel reasonably confident that Ukraine will not reach the sea or even take Tokmak before winter. And they think the offensive will then grind to a halt.

Yes, quite possibly. I suppose that was part of my point - unless we are very sure about our alternative explanations for their inaction we have to consider their apparent lack of concern when assessing current events.

I do think there are persuasive alternative explanations, though, such as the previously-mentioned idea that they are politically unable to act.

As always, time will tell.

[Tux]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

However the longer this drags out I am less sure a soft landing or off-ramp exit for Russia is possible.  They might just break themselves on this rock.

Exactly that - they have deliverately removed all the soft options to make us negotiate with a hard Russian loss.  Because we all know it is not just the Russians who will have to deal with the fallout from that.

I want to emphasise that I absolutely do not think we should back away from helping Ukraine win this war.  I'm all in for dealing with the fallout.  At this point it's the least we can do.  I just hope (and don't doubt) that we have some extremely bright people mapping the hell out of our potential future option-spaces as we speak.

[Bulletpoint]

34 minutes ago, Tux said:

Yes, quite possibly. I suppose that was part of my point - unless we are very sure about our alternative explanations for their inaction we have to consider their apparent lack of concern when assessing current events.

I do think there are persuasive alternative explanations, though, such as the previously-mentioned idea that they are politically unable to act.

As always, time will tell.

I think a big reason for the recent UKR gains is that they have committed much more force to the fight recently.

And they have done this in large part because there is an increasing political pressure on them to deliver results now. Both Western backers and the Ukrainian people want to see results on the ground.

So a good question would be at what cost they have gained ground in recent weeks.

I personally don't think the attack helicopter threat has been eliminated. And I don't think the Russian army is on the verge of collapse. Taking casualties, yes. But mobilising steadily more. Steadily digging more trenches. Planting more mines.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That is brilliantly put.  I would only add “…lose too much.”  However the longer this drags out I am less sure a soft landing or off-ramp exit for Russia is possible.  They might just break themselves on this rock.

When you look at the conditions and imperatives even a Russian 'win' at this point would entail, breaking themselves on this rock looks inevitable. Moscow would have successfully and painfully executed an anschluss only to buy themselves an Afghanistan and a political milieu demanding more of the same against....NATO. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That is brilliantly put.  I would only add “…lose too much.”  However the longer this drags out I am less sure a soft landing or off-ramp exit for Russia is possible.  They might just break themselves on this rock.

At the end of the day it is between them and the rock. 

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, Fenris said:

Bummer if correct.  I hope/trust the crew is ok.  Caption on this tweet is

 

Impossible to say what happened here, but my guess is ATGMs.  I don't think AT mines could have lit up a Challenger that way and a direct engagement with a Russian tank capable of smashing it up like that is unlikely as we've seen hardly any tank on tank action in this whole war.

Aside from the losses, there is an upside to this.  Who is doing the filming?  A Ukrainian in sneakers riding in a civilian type vehicle.  Whatever happened here was recent (tank still burning), yet the area seems to be relatively secure in Ukraine's hands.

Steve

[The_Capt]

41 minutes ago, billbindc said:

When you look at the conditions and imperatives even a Russian 'win' at this point would entail, breaking themselves on this rock looks inevitable. Moscow would have successfully and painfully executed an anschluss only to buy themselves an Afghanistan and a political milieu demanding more of the same against....NATO. 

Ah my robot of the "deep state" (insert sarcastic and friendly smirking looking emoji here), I am a strong believer that "speed matters".  A long slow fading of Russia is very different than a sudden snap.  Human collectives can endure a lot so long as they are eased into it.  A sudden shock can create very different effects.  I think for right now the option where Russia enters into a sort of state-palliative care is a given and we are embracing the oldest strategy known to mankind: hope.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think a big reason for the recent UKR gains is that they have committed much more force to the fight recently.

And they have done this in large part because there is an increasing political pressure on them to deliver results now. Both Western backers and the Ukrainian people want to see results on the ground.

So a good question would be at what cost they have gained ground in recent weeks.

I personally don't think the attack helicopter threat has been eliminated. And I don't think the Russian army is on the verge of collapse. Taking casualties, yes. But mobilising steadily more. Steadily digging more trenches. Planting more mines.

Ukraines one clear success is finally, mostly, winning the artillery battle. The thing is though, that enables everything else, like committing more forces to the fight, at a higher density.Hopefully the whole thing will start to roll down hill.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ah my robot of the "deep state" (insert sarcastic and friendly smirking looking emoji here), I am a strong believer that "speed matters".  A long slow fading of Russia is very different than a sudden snap.  Human collectives can endure a lot so long as they are eased into it.  A sudden shock can create very different effects.  I think for right now the option where Russia enters into a sort of state-palliative care is a given and we are embracing the oldest strategy known to mankind: hope.

The oldest and newest question in foreign policy: how does one deal with a late Ottoman nuclear power?

[Centurian52]

I'm just getting started on catching up on this weekend's events. From the looks of it either Ukraine made some good progress this weekend or ISW finally updated their map with last week's progress.

[Centurian52]

10 hours ago, Fenris said:

Bummer if correct.  I hope/trust the crew is ok.  Caption on this tweet is

 

Bummer that they have so few to lose, but they were always going to lose some once they started using them. There is no surer sign that these are finally being used in action than to see one lost. I've been refreshing the Oryx page on Ukrainian losses every day for over a month now waiting to see the first Leopard 1 loss. Because once they start losing Leopard 1s, that means they finally have units fully equipped with Leopard 1s that are ready for action.

[dan/california]

There may be some slight hint of a method behind the tires on the wings idea.

Edited September 5, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Why would you emplace three guns that close together? Only thing I can come up with is that they only had one minimally competent artillerymen for all three guns?

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

Claims Poland still has these in production, and these are newly built guns. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

The reason everything else is starting to work. Ukraine has enough drones, enough counter-battery radar, and enough PGMs to continually one one shot Russian artillery.

[Carolus]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The reason everything else is starting to work. Ukraine has enough drones, enough counter-battery radar, and enough PGMs to continually one one shot Russian artillery.

I think it was the Cap'n who said

"Precision beats mass, mass precision beats everything."

Mass precision atm is a mix of very cheap and very expensive. The West has the expensive, Ukraine has invented the cheap. Both seem to compliment each other. China can give Russia only the cheap precision. The expensive precision seems to stay a trump card (but a trump card alone does not win a game, you need a good hand to accompany it).

Edited September 5, 2023 by Carolus

[cesmonkey]