How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Why he have to be deported if he lived in Crimea before 2014? But all Russians, who came to Crimea after occupation are illegals and must leave Ukrainian territory. All their deals of real estate are legally void.

Because these things are always messy as hell.  Trying to find the “good ones” in these sorts of situations is always messy.  Totally hypothetical, what if he claims to have lived in Crimea before 2014 but can’t prove it?  Once stuff starts blowing up and burning you could have thousands in this position.  

And then there are Russians who try and fake their way into Crimea (especially if Russia is in such a bad state and they want to keep their homes), what proof will they have and how does one spot the fakes?  This is before trying to figure out who the 15% of the population prior to 2014 who were on the Russian agenda.  “All deals are legally void”, is exactly what some are going to see as repression “ie taking my house”, especially if how people are selected as “good” or “bad” is flawed, and it will be.  People always start to turn on each other when it gets like this. 

Post conflict is almost always one of the toughest stages to manage. Why?  Because we end up trying to fix human micro-social space with bureaucracy and policy. Re-integration has been done well but more likely it will be messy, “how messy?” remains the core question.  There will need to be an entire DDR effort along with massive reconstruction.  When do the Donbas and Crimea get to vote again?  You are not going to figure out good from bad “Crimeans” over a weekend.

[billbindc]

Double...somehow.

Edited August 26, 2023 by billbindc

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

These two posts seem to encapsulate the fundamental disagreement at the highest policy level. Approximately half the experts think the Russian state is fragile enough to just shatter if it is booted in the bum to hard. The other half thinks most of the Russian population is to unmotivated to have a proper civil war, and will just accept orders from whoever is occupying the Kremlin after a bit of gangland unpleasantness.

 

One of the experts on this podcast, a native Russian speaker, argues strongly for the to demotivated camp. His take was that the coup demonstrated a desperate desire not to get involved by almost everyone. Only a ~quarter of Wagner actually signed on for the party. Almost all of the actual Russian military was to paralyzed with indecision to do much of anything. Some of them probably preferred Wagner, and some of them probably preferred Putin. All they actually did was get drunk, pretend they were drunk, or and/or mysteriously lose their phones.

And Prigozhin stopped *before* he got to Moscow because nobody...and certainly not the folks who backed him...wants to take the risk of unleashing any sort of popular revolt. This is a mafia state permeated with a mafia ethos. Money comes first and stability is necessary to make money. Girkin's a big exception, not the rule. 

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Because these things are always messy as hell.  Trying to find the “good ones” in these sorts of situations is always messy.  Totally hypothetical, what if he claims to have lived in Crimea before 2014 but can’t prove it?  Once stuff starts blowing up and burning you could have thousands in this position.  

And then there are Russians who try and fake their way into Crimea (especially if Russia is in such a bad state and they want to keep their homes), what proof will they have and how does one spot the fakes?  This is before trying to figure out who the 15% of the population prior to 2014 who were on the Russian agenda.  “All deals are legally void”, is exactly what some are going to see as repression “ie taking my house”, especially if how people are selected as “good” or “bad” is flawed, and it will be.  People always start to turn on each other when it gets like this. 

Post conflict is almost always one of the toughest stages to manage. Why?  Because we end up trying to fix human micro-social space with bureaucracy and policy. Re-integration has been done well but more likely it will be messy, “how messy?” remains the core question.  There will need to be an entire DDR effort along with massive reconstruction.  When do the Donbas and Crimea get to vote again?  You are not going to figure out good from bad “Crimeans” over a weekend.

One of the bigger questions I have is does the Ukrainian government have good records from Crimea pre 2014 takeover? If all the records were on paper in Crimea they a have been bleeped with beyond use. But one miracle at a time, they have to take it back first.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And Prigozhin stopped *before* he got to Moscow because nobody...and certainly not the folks who backed him...wants to take the risk of unleashing any sort of popular revolt. This is a mafia state permeated with a mafia ethos. Money comes first and stability is necessary to make money. Girkin's a big exception, not the rule. 

 

Really hoping that becomes a WAS any time now.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

These two posts seem to encapsulate the fundamental disagreement at the highest policy level. Approximately half the experts think the Russian state is fragile enough to just shatter if it is booted in the bum to hard. The other half thinks most of the Russian population is to unmotivated to have a proper civil war, and will just accept orders from whoever is occupying the Kremlin after a bit of gangland unpleasantness.

 

One of the experts on this podcast, a native Russian speaker, argues strongly for the to demotivated camp. His take was that the coup demonstrated a desperate desire not to get involved by almost everyone. Only a ~quarter of Wagner actually signed on for the party. Almost all of the actual Russian military was to paralyzed with indecision to do much of anything. Some of them probably preferred Wagner, and some of them probably preferred Putin. All they actually did get drunk, pretend they were drunk, or and/or mysteriously lose their phones.

Pretty good summation but there are other points on the spectrum.  We could see levels of fragmentation as power players see opportunity of risk as things unravel.  Hanging the entire thing on Russian (or any other human collective) apathy is a gross oversimplification of the situation in my opinion.  People live in bubbles while the rest of the world spins around them. They will take an enormous amount of repression and chaos, so long as their bed is not burning when they try to sleep at night.  They can be sheep…right up to the point they are not.  

No one can predict when or where that point will be.  I spent a lot of time with political soothsayers and witch doctors in 2014 and no one predicted the Arab Spring.  The conditions for a mass movement had been around for years, decades.  Many were right in it being inevitable, but when and where matter a lot, and no one was able to predict that.

Same goes for Russia. The conditions will be present (are present) within its current society for a tipping point towards serious collapse.  Will a massive loss in Ukraine do it?  I personally do not believe anyone who says definitively in either direction. In reality it is a possible outcome, probably the most dangerous.  So what? Well you plan for it and be ready to try and head it off.  You mitigate and try and stay ahead of that reality but at the same time do not 1) let it hijack all your thinking or 2) dismiss it out of hand because it is “too hard”.  This is strategy, threading needles and keeping diametrically opposed outcomes in balance while they try to fly apart.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, stuxneet said:

taken from the Indonesian order?

Іndonesia ordered 5 BTR-4M. At least one such vehicle (likely factory's demonstrator) now in use of 3rd NGU operative brigade "Spartan" along with usual BTR-4E1.

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Totally hypothetical, what if he claims to have lived in Crimea before 2014 but can’t prove it?

It's easy to check by his Russian passport. All Crimean series, issued for locals after 2014 are good known. Also many Crimeans saved own inner Ukrainain passports (just in case). Yes, were and vatniks, which demonstratively burned or teard its off, but after several years of "Russian paradice" they became searh opportunities how to renew Ukrainian passport as "lost".

Russians are not only problem of Crimea. Many Russians from Syberia, Far East, Caucasus and from European part of Russia, who haven't money for Crimea real estate have been migrate to Mariupol, Berdiansk, and other sea-shore settlements of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Have we also to "understand and forgive" them? No. Each, who came from Russia must go out. Every, who received Russian passport have to be verified about work for Russian authorities. And if medics or communal service usual eployees should be free from responsibility for collaborationism (if they not support occupation directly, of course), that other collaborators should be punished.   

Edited August 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/24/ukraine-counteroffensive-victory-breakout/

 

But observers would be wise to temper their pessimism. War does not proceed in a linear fashion. Defenders can hold for a long time and then suddenly break, allowing an attacker to make rapid gains before the defense solidifies further to the rear. The Ukrainians aim to generate exactly this effect — and there is reason to think they can. Ukraine’s offensive push is far from over. In fact, it is still in the early stages — just 10 weeks into what is likely to last at least four more months.

 

By Petreaus and Kagan. I agree with every word, more or less.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

that other collaborators should be punished.

That statement alone sends shiver up the spine.  And I know you damn well mean it, you have every right to…but, shivers.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

By Petreaus and Kagan. I agree with every word, more or less.

Now there is something I never thought to ask, what is the winter warfare capability of the UA right now?  

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Now there is something I never thought to ask, what is the winter warfare capability of the UA right now?  

Worth adding that the weather has been completely screwy this year in a LOT of places. Ukraine could have impassible mud in the late September, or bone dry ground until nearly Christmas. I wouldn't bet against either one.

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now there is something I never thought to ask, what is the winter warfare capability of the UA right now?  

 there's a big tactical game changer we saw last winter -- no foliage cover, which cuts both ways.  Plus if RU logistics in the center landbridge get throttled, it's gonna be a long miserable cold hungry winter w no relief for those RU troops, hopefully leading to less resistance. 

and yes, I am moving the goalposts from 'UKR gotta win this campaign season' to 'actually doesn't have to win it all right now but do need to set up conditions for fall corrosion campaign & winter offensive'

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That statement alone sends shiver up the spine.  And I know you damn well mean it, you have every right to…but, shivers.

All of Western Europe went thru it after WW2, it was bad, but they didn't line people up against walls wholesale. Hopefully Ukraine can do as well or better. Not going to get perfection here. A wholesale but only mildly violent effort to expedite the departure of the worst actors would help. Put a very unpleasant note on the door of the assistant police chief that was too helpful to the Russians after it has become obvious the AFU are coming to town but before they actually get there.

It is notable that Ukraine is in no danger of taking any Russian territory, so these folks have a "safer" place to go than a lot of  collaborators the beaten side. Hopefully most of them will have the sense to take the out. Ukrainian propaganda certainly points a lot of this regularly.

The way avoid all of these problem was to admit Ukraine to NATO before the Russians invaded, that water, and far to many casualties are well under the bridge unfortunately.

Edited August 26, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That statement alone sends shiver up the spine.  And I know you damn well mean it, you have every right to…but, shivers.

This already have been happening on liberated territories. Even in Kyiv oblast. Many Russia-supporters fled from liberarted cities, towns and villages, but enough stayed here and lurked in hope they will not be revealed. But SBU, police and locals do own work. Not always good as in Kherson or Mykolaiv oblast, where police and SBU often ignore these things. But for example in Lyman many collaborators already sentenced for prison terms. In Kharkiv oblast about 100 of teachers are now under investigation because they have agreed to teach children by Russian school program and put in heads of kids Russian propaganda. In 2014 Poproshenko decided to be "good" and a comamnd was given to SBU, police, prosecutors - do not pursuit in mass even open collaborators. As I told single of local officials got prison terms - and many of them got either ridiculously low and other got suspended sentences at all. You know what happen if evil goes unpunished.    

Edited August 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[akd]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That statement alone sends shiver up the spine.  And I know you damn well mean it, you have every right to…but, shivers.

This is ridiculous. This has already happened repeatedly through normal judicial processes following liberation of territories. I can’t think of a single proven example of extrajudicial violence against civilian collaborators by the Ukrainian government or military.

Edited August 26, 2023 by akd

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Worth adding that the weather has been completely screwy this year in a LOT of places. Ukraine could have impassible mud in the late September, or bone dry ground until nearly Christmas. I wouldn't bet against either one.

If we say about southern steppes, here the autumn usually not so wet. But can be too windy, especially close to the sea.

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

I can’t think of a single proven example of extrajudicial violence against civilian collaborators by the Ukrainian government or military.

Though not single incidents of "swift justice" from locals under collaborators. I didn't hear about murdrers (though in Luhansk oblast in first day of war was stabbed one odious local official, who already prepared to meet Russians), but public obstruction (in villages this matter) or even set fire of houses took place. Especially during transition period.

Many our fighters, who were forced to leave Donbas openly say, when they will liberate own homes they will remember everything to all who spited in their faces for pro-Ukrianian position, who gave their friends to MGB, who looted their abandoned appartments and houses.  

Edited August 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Eddy]

RA sending elements of 76 Guards Air Assault Division from northern Luhansk to Robotyne.   

[FancyCat]

Maybe it's just me but letting Russia and Russian settlers act all innocent like regarding their position in Ukraine when they are deliberately engaging a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Ukraine precisely to muddle the water and ensure a future Russian role in Ukraine does not really sit right with me? Sorta like the Pied Noirs, end of the day, they are colonial settlers, and for the successor state of the Soviet Union, a leading world power that engaged in their programs of ethnic cleansing and also pledged to uphold IHL and stop such atrocities from occurring and touted itself as a champion of decolonization, for Russia to not inherit those principles nor recognize their past history of atrocities, and to continue this history of ethnic cleansing, i have very little sympathy for Russia or these settlers post-2014. 

Not killing of course, but definitely expulsion should they not conform to the laws of Ukraine, and etc. 

[L0ckAndL0ad]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Do you have inner Ukrainan passport? Ukraine has opened Kolotylivka border crossing in Sumy oblast in order Ukrainin citizens could return to Ukraine without big circle through Europe. This checkpoint works only in one direction - from Russia to Ukraine. Also it uses for official exchanges of POWs and civilains, moved to Russia. 

I do have all the pre-2014 documents, both originals and digital backup scans in the cloud.

But it doesn't matter, because I have reasons to believe I may not reach your side of the border. Not particularly fond of the idea of figuring if I am wrong or not. I am 95% sure it's not gonna end well. So I stay put for now.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You realize that a few pages back people here were calling for your deportation in the event of a liberation?  This is the mess.  You clearly are not a pro-Russian sympathizer but in the wrong circumstances unless you can prove Ukrainian citizenship and loyalty you could be on a boat out based on some of the rhetoric being thrown around here. The cause emerges out of situations just like this.

Anyway as I said before let’s honestly hope it does not come to this.  Hopefully people will be integrated smoothly and embrace peace.  It is when the honeymoon period ends that things may get weird.  For the record I am talking insurgency here, not partisan resistance during the war.  That I strongly suspect is off the table.  I am talking 6 months to a year after the war and something does not go right and Russia is still able to make trouble…because they will if they can.

And in all sincerity, take care of yourself.

Uhm. I was born in Crimea ('89), so as my mother and grandparents. My father is originally from Russia, but came here also during Soviet era and was registered here with Ukrainian documents before 2014. I do have all the old documents, but I never left Crimea to renew them after 2014. It costs money, and there's always something more important, like dental, or clothes, or broken boiler. I was going to when I felt comfortable to properly resettle. But who cares? I've never collaborated nor commited any crimes. Those who did know it and take their own risks by staying.

I do get your point about documents disappearing when things blow up and burn, and it's a good one, but it's not like someone intends to repeat Soviet style deportations in the middle of the night with freight trains. Not the country commited to join the EU, at least. Ministry of reintegration and other state services have a lot of experience with this sort of thing by this point, I'm sure. 

 

The ethnic hatred, on the other hand, is something to watch out for, definitely. I've identified myself as ethnically Russian my whole life. I speak Russian in my head 75% of the time. 20% my thoughts are in English, and sometimes I think like 5% in Ukrainian (mostly Poderev'yansky memes ;D).

After 24th February 2022, it suddenly became clear that ethnicity and even culture does not define me. I felt it in my gut and still do. Our actions define who we are. But also laws. By international law, and by Ukrainian law, I am Ukrainian citizen. Even if Estonians did not recognize me as such. That's who I am.

I do see your concerns as valid and they are worth the discussion.

[danfrodo]

Good look here today at UKR forces allocation & an opinion on what UKR was up to in its Bakhmut offensive operations.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/26/2189702/-Ukraine-Update-If-Bakhmut-was-a-Ukrainian-trap-it-may-have-served-its-purpose

 

[kraze]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

That statement alone sends shiver up the spine.  And I know you damn well mean it, you have every right to…but, shivers.

the other alternative is them killing you. Not sure if that one's better than preventing them doing this via prison.

after all the reminder here is that this isn't some border dispute. This is russians and their collaborators wanting to completely eliminate Ukrainians. We can not exist in a russian world. They don't see us being alive as an option.

Edited August 26, 2023 by kraze

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, Anon052 said:

I watched the documentary and I find it really bad. In german I would say "tendenziös" the english meaning would be tendentiously. A lot of known information was not presented. If this was intentional or just bad research I can not say but especially the spiegel has lost a lot of journalistic credibility in recent years and had a  pro russian tendency. Not long ago they did an article where their only source was a russian spy so they published direct russian propaganda and similar events.

They somehow forgot to mention in the documentary that Diana D. is a russian national, that wasn't born in Ukraine/crimea and only got an ukrainian passport in 2001. After she went to crimea she did a lot of pro russian activity. In the documentary she was portrayed as ukrainian and they found it not strange that she appeared in russia after the bombings.

And I don't know why they missed the seismic profiles of the explosions that clearly contradicts their assumption that only a small amount of explosives was used.

Some of the conclussions they draw there are not very logical. I would like to see how they picture the Andromeda doing the work on 4 pipelines in short amount of time on open sea. I work with specialised ships/ shipcrews that work in bomb disposal. The amount of specialised equipment needed to only work in depths of 5-10m with explosives is really high. I asked some of the divers if they think it was possible to do the work needed from Andromeda. They laughted in my face. Most of the divers have navy background......

 

I started to watch but it got implausible fast and I stopped maybe 1/3 of the way in.  That's not a trivial depth to work at for SCUBA divers who have to use mixed gases, and the idea that 6 people are going to do it from a 15 m sailboat stretches plausibility.  That the boat will then be left parked on a stand (apparently in isolation?) where it's pristine except for "traces" of explosives (but no other signs that it's been used for a significant SCUBA operation?) is an even bigger stretch.  I might see if I can find the Spiegel article outside a paywall later.  It's faster to read than to sit through video.

[Eddy]

Bloody hell! If you can, it's worth reading the whole thread as there is images embedded. Suffice it to say, the whole idea that the Ukrainians would succeed if only they did it the NATO way is questionable (i.e. bollocks). This would appear to be a tough nut to crack.

"Translation:

Much has been written about the battles in the South. I wouldn't say that this is the case where it's better to see once (or multiple times) than to hear/read about it many times. Especially through the eyes of the frontline units. A thread about battles from the perspective of aerial reconnaissance:

Environment. Steppe. Fields, tree lines. Slight elevations and dips, villages, small rivers. Minefields. Whoever you may be, an armored assault group, evacuation team, aerial or infantry reconnaissance, your movement is visible from afar. The enemy has long been preparing.

Equipment and personnel can be spotted from a distance and targeted. Both sides understand that there are limited places for positions and deployment. Most likely, there's something to shoot at in almost every tree line. Confirmation is needed, of course. Primarily, it's necessary to determine the priority of the target

There's a limited number of access roads, logistical routes. Everything's been calibrated and fired upon repeatedly every day. You certainly can be spotted. Carrying out the mission while maintaining complete concealment from the enemy is mostly impossible

There has been a great deal of talk about fortifications and minefields. Every tree line has been dug up. On one stretch of the Mariupol highway, anti-tank fortifications have been installed. We're not just talking about trenches. There's an entire system of trenches, dugouts, and even undeground tunnels in some places

In each tree line, there's a network of trenches and firing positions for various weapons. AGS, DShK, ATGMs. Anti-tank ditches and mine obstacles stretch across the fields. From regular TM and POM mines to more "sophisticated" ones, all lying in wait for infantry.

Once again, it's crucial to emphasize that we're specifically discussing a system of trenches, interconnected by passageways and pathways. These pathways facilitate the movement of personnel, weaponry, and ammunition. As for what remains unexcavated, it's mined. All of this must be navigated to make progress forward.

For those who are "overly smart" and believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces took an incredibly long time to drive the Russians out of the village of Robotyne, they must have missed the defense system that needed to be overcome in order to push the russians away from the Mariupol highway and gradually approach the village, encircle it, and finally seize control. Truly, a monumental task has been accomplished.

The russians are establishing firing points (AGS, heavy machine guns), and they mine the routes to them. They themselves move along designated paths. Our positions in the liberated territory are surrounded by mines and tripwires. Paths are cleared for ingress, and sappers gradually clear the area.

Frequently, the hidden "surprises" detonate during shelling, triggered by fires that start due to the shelling (weeds, shrubs, and trees catch fire, setting off tripwires). At times, we ourselves discover and call in sappers to clear specific areas.

There's much talk about armored vehicle losses, but the issue of initial setbacks is overlooked. In the long run, it's impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, even due to the enemy's advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.

There's much talk about armored vehicle losses, I'll skip the topic of initial setbacks. In the long run, it's impossible to entirely avoid armor losses, especially due to the enemy's advantage in the air. However, armor serves a specific purpose that entails risks.

These actions are justified by the fact that they save lives. I spoke with a soldier who survived two direct hits on a Bradley during shelling. Even the most critically damaged equipment is recovered and taken for repairs. You can replace a piece of metal, even if it's expensive, but you can't repair a human life

Enemy ATGM operators position cameras in advance of their positions. This way, they can spot targets (all types of vehicles) in advance and engage them effectively. If successful, artillery finishes off the targets. Alternatively, they might start with air force, followed by artillery.

They hunt for evacuation teams – both vehicles and stations. Right under our noses, they hit an armored vehicle, and an evacuation vehicle arrived for the guys. They had to maneuver in a tight spot, moving very slowly on a narrow road, avoiding going off-road into a mined field. Taking risks as well. Fortunately, they managed to get them out.

KAB's are one of the biggest fears. The russians use them extensively. I can't speak to their accuracy, but the weaponry is powerful. They attempt to target logistics and command centers, just as we do. They don't hesitate to simply fire on roads. Forward defenses in settlements are constantly under shelling.

The aerial reconnaissance linked system Orlan-Zala-Supercam is effective and causing issues. They identify targets and launch Lances, releasing them in swarms along with KAB's. They attempt to break through and hunt down vehicles. 

The recaptured positions are even more calibrated. Bombs are not spared. No lack of mines either. The tree line where one of the crews was operating was simply leveled. Only a palisade remained, and a well-made trench ceased to be usable.

The russians use a standard tactic for their armor. The route to the firing position is determined, usually in a way that keeps the vehicles under visual cover of the tree lines and eventually positions them in an open space for shooting. They quickly expend their ammunition and retreat

Vehicle cannot be completely concealed. Dust clouds are visible during movement, and the vehicles can be seen shifting between tree lines, while drones provide visibility as well. The main task here is to execute the firing mission quickly enough to prevent artillery targeting or counterattacks using FPV or ATGMs.

I understand why the russians are intensively butthurt due to the loss of the village with six streets. They put in significant effort to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from advancing. Defending is easier according to all norms. On the other hand, we're putting in a tremendous effort to break through. And when we succeed, it shows that our efforts are paying off

Thank you for your attention. I might continue sharing in the future."