How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Tatarigami with short, sobering remarks. Rather similar I observed among 2 or 3 more insightful and connected commentators here, too. It's too early to tell if Russians indeed lack reinforcements to man these powerful lines; additionally, the front of offenisve is very narrow. Just by keeping "hinges" enough time muscovites can likely delay Ukrainian progress.

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Beleg85

[JonS]

12 hours ago, billbindc said:

I agree with the above but it's worth remembering that Ukraine now has probably not just the most effective army in Europe but also the most effective anti-Russian security services.

The COIN end of the spectrum is very different to the conventional, and competence at one end does not map to competence at the other. The US military, for example, is rather good at one end of it, and rather **** at the other, as it very publicly demonstrated in the first two decades of this century.

(And the rest of NATO didn't perform very differently, before we start in on that)

Edited August 26, 2023 by JonS

[Eddy]

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think - CEPA

More optimistic opinion piece. The author's argument is that Ukraine does not have to advance that much further (10-15Km) in order to interdict Russian GLOC by fires. Again worth a read. 

[Twisk]

52 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think - CEPA

More optimistic opinion piece. The author's argument is that Ukraine does not have to advance that much further (10-15Km) in order to interdict Russian GLOC by fires. Again worth a read. 

This aligns with The Capt's post and my images. If Ukraine is able to reach Tokmak they will put nearly 90 kilometers of the land bridge under fire. And while that won't stop the flow of supply it will create a dead zone where any large concentration are at risk.

 

[danfrodo]

Summary from here today.  Thinks UKR making advances south of Robotyne all the way to novopropkivka, which has been reported here & elsewhere.  But has a couple videos claimed to show destruction/retreat of RU armored column SOUTH of  novopropkivka, meaning the town may be cut.  Getting closer & closer to having Tokmak supply lines in artillery range.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/25/2189587/-Ukraine-Update-With-new-momentum-Ukraine-pushes-south-and-east-of-Robotyne

 

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Summary from here today.  Thinks UKR making advances south of Robotyne all the way to novopropkivka, which has been reported here & elsewhere.  But has a couple videos claimed to show destruction/retreat of RU armored column SOUTH of  novopropkivka, meaning the town may be cut.  Getting closer & closer to having Tokmak supply lines in artillery range.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/25/2189587/-Ukraine-Update-With-new-momentum-Ukraine-pushes-south-and-east-of-Robotyne

 

Worth a read in full. The optimist case laid out in detail with quite a bit of evidence.

[dan/california]

Quote

https://www.threads.net/@senatorromney/post/CwYeP5JKbq2

Senator Romney on Ukraine. Absolutely 100% solid.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Was going to leave this one but this is rife with risk and we do no service in downplaying them.

I'm not downplaying this at all.  As I said, Crimea will be VERY difficult to govern.  That was true even before 2014 and it is, in no small way, why Crimea is now under Russian rule.  However, the flip side of downplaying is overhyping the problems Ukraine will face.  Which is the reason I said what I said because the risk of insurgency was mentioned and the facts do not support that being a major concern.

Don't take my word for it... take the word of a Ukrainian in Kyiv and, more importantly, a Ukrainian in Crimea.  I think they have a better take on this than any of us.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

Ukraine already conducted a civ/mil campaign in Mariupol before this phase of the war that worked quite well and that was in an environment where public corruption was far more tolerated.

Exactly.  This is a point that Haiduk made a bunch of pages ago.  When the Ukrainian military retook "separatist" areas, including ground zero (Slovyansk) there was no insurgency, despite all of the difficulties Ukraine had at the time.  The simple reason for this is the majority of the people there just want to be left alone.  They don't believe they can influence the outcome with their lives, so they just live their lives and see where things go.

The other thing to remember is that many Ukrainians in Crimea supported Russia taking control because they thought things would be better.  They thought there would be more jobs, better salaries, better benefits, and LESS corruption.  Russia's track record is, at best, mixed.  If Russia delivered on expectations, Ukraine would be in big trouble taking over control.  But c'mon... Crimea was governed by Russia as an ATM for Russian citizens and Crimeans know it.  I do not doubt for a second that there's a pretty good sized chunk of Ukrainians who are still supportive of Russian citizenship (we have a segment in every democratic country that is supportive of authoritarian rule), but it is far from the majority.  Especially after the Ladas are packed up and head back to mainland Russia.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway. 

It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.

I'm so VERY glad to see you post.  Even if it is just to say "Hello!".  As you can see from the responses, you have a lot of people here keeping you in their thoughts.  Stay safe.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Tatarigami with short, sobering remarks. Rather similar I observed among 2 or 3 more insightful and connected commentators here, too. It's too early to tell if Russians indeed lack reinforcements to man these powerful lines; additionally, the front of offenisve is very narrow. Just by keeping "hinges" enough time muscovites can likely delay Ukrainian progress.

 

Interesting to see his note about the reinforcements and reserves.  It is exactly the opposite of several war monitors that have a proven track record of accurate observations.  ISW being the one I think sets a gold standard (as much as one can) for this sort of analysis.  So if Tatarigami_UA thinks they are all wrong, I wonder what he's seeing that other experienced eyes are missing.

Steve

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting to see his note about the reinforcements and reserves.  It is exactly the opposite of several war monitors that have a proven track record of accurate observations.  ISW being the one I think sets a gold standard (as much as one can) for this sort of analysis.  So if Tatarigami_UA thinks they are all wrong, I wonder what he's seeing that other experienced eyes are missing.

Steve

I'm wondering how UKR is advancing at a faster pace than we've seen in 2 months if RU doesn't have some shortages, which is what Tatargami says is the case.  

This advance will be stopped cold if RU pulls enough resources from other sectors but then UKR has push into those weakened sectors or RU gets away with 'robbing peter to pay paul'.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting to see his note about the reinforcements and reserves.  It is exactly the opposite of several war monitors that have a proven track record of accurate observations.  ISW being the one I think sets a gold standard (as much as one can) for this sort of analysis.  So if Tatarigami_UA thinks they are all wrong, I wonder what he's seeing that other experienced eyes are missing.

Steve

Their are multilayered information ops being run by both sides, there may more than two sides. At this exact moment I am not believing a whole lot of anything except geolocated footage that doesn't have nine obvious cuts in it. Personally I am currently applying this filter to anything that originates in Washington, Kyiv, or Moscow. There are just to many reasons for any all of them to be less than truthful right this second. Triply so with Prig dead and The Pickle enjoying the comforts of some FSB sub basement cell.

Edit: To be sure, they both deserve even worse...

Edited August 25, 2023 by dan/california

[Fenris]

Post says they got behind RU lines and retreating troops then ran into them. Lots of confusion. If you read the thread I get the impression the retreating RU troops didn't realise they were running into a UKR unit that had got in behind them.

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Fenris

[cesmonkey]

From Mashovets' update today, you get the feeling that the Russians have a particular vulnerability in the Tokmak direction at the moment, compared to other portions of the front. Perhaps they were overconfident at that location?

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1153

Quote

Considering all of the above, I do not think that after

Staromayorsk and Harvest grounds to assert that in the Berdyansk direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been able to "close come close" to "significant operational success." Before that, it’s still here, well, it’s not very close ...

Unlike the Tokmak direction, here the enemy has a whole set of forces and means to keep the situation in a more or less acceptable position for himself ...

At least he doesn’t shuffle battalions here along the front ... from section to section.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Post says they got behind RU lines and retreating troops then ran into them. Lots of confusion. If you read the thread I get the impression the retreating RU troops didn't realise they were running into a UKR unit that had got in behind them.

 

Amazing that the Zombies decided to run back to their positions despite being unarmed and seeing their comrades shot.  Wow.

I only read commentary on Twitter when the original poster is explaining things.  OMG did I laugh hard about this one:

Steve

[Jr Buck Private]

3 hours ago, Eddy said:

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think - CEPA

More optimistic opinion piece. The author's argument is that Ukraine does not have to advance that much further (10-15Km) in order to interdict Russian GLOC by fires. Again worth a read. 

I was kinda wondering about that lately.   How far do they have to penetrate towards the sea of Azov before it really causes problems.   A more realistic objective for this campaign might be capturing Tokmat.   

[Sojourner]

Budanov wasn't kidding about Crimea.

The Russian 126th Coastal Defense Brigade in occupied Crimea was hit on Aug. 25, Ukraine's military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov confirmed to the media outlet Liga.net.

https://kyivindependent.com/media-military-intelligence-confirms-strike-on-russias-126th-coastal-defense-brigade/

[sburke]

Interesting thought. 

 With Prigozhin’s Death, Putin Projects a Message of Power (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

“Everyone’s afraid,” Konstantin Remchukov, a Moscow newspaper editor with ties to the Kremlin, said of the reaction among the Russian elite to the plane crash Wednesday that Western officials theorize was caused by an explosion on board. “It’s just that everyone sees that anything is possible.”

Never before has someone so central to Russia’s ruling establishment been killed in a suspected state-sponsored assassination, said Mikhail Vinogradov, a Moscow political analyst.

“This is a rather harsh precedent,” Vinogradov said, adding that the Kremlin appeared to be doing little to dissuade Russians of the view that it had sanctioned Prigozhin’s killing. After all, if members of the ruling elite concluded that one of the Putin system’s most powerful players had been killed against the Kremlin’s wishes, it would send a devastating signal of Putin’s loss of control.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said Friday that the suggestion by foreign officials that the Kremlin was behind Prigozhin’s death was an “absolute lie.”

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Just had another thought about Ukraine reasserting control over Crimea.  One of the reasons it was so difficult to govern prior to 2014 was due to the extreme influence of domestic and Russian organized crime.  Some of the most significant figures in those crime syndicates are in political leadership positions, including Sergey Aksyonov (political top head of Crimea).  Ukraine was unable to do much, if anything, about this before Russia took over.

When Ukraine gets back control, it is almost certain that these criminal types will go to Russia because if they stay they will be tried for treason.  No need to prove criminality, just that they held an official position in the Russian occupation government.  That's VERY easy to do.  But they won't even need to do that because they will leave on their own accord.  Which means Ukraine is going to be rid of some massive governance headaches without having to do anything.  There will be other problems, but minor compared to what things were like pre-2014.

Steve

[Sojourner]

Complicating things in Zaporizhzhia as well.

Russia has been settling people from the Russian Federation in occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast to ensure favorable results in planned illegal sham elections, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Aug. 25.

Russia is increasing pressure on Ukrainian residents to obtain Russian passports. According to the U.S. research group Ukraine Conflict Observatory, these tactics include denial of medical services, social benefits, the ability to drive and to work, and even overt threats of violence or intimidation.

https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-people-brought-from-russia-to-occupied-zaporizhzhia-oblast-to-falsify-elections/

[The_Capt]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not downplaying this at all.  As I said, Crimea will be VERY difficult to govern.  That was true even before 2014 and it is, in no small way, why Crimea is now under Russian rule.  However, the flip side of downplaying is overhyping the problems Ukraine will face.  Which is the reason I said what I said because the risk of insurgency was mentioned and the facts do not support that being a major concern.

Don't take my word for it... take the word of a Ukrainian in Kyiv and, more importantly, a Ukrainian in Crimea.  I think they have a better take on this than any of us.

Steve

What facts?  All we have seen so far is opinion.  Sure we have Ukrainian posters who assess “zero chance of insurgency” but I think it is fair to say they are not really in an objective position right now…and no one is going to blame them for that.

The only “facts” I can see are here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea

This says based on 2014 census that 67.8 of the Crimean population identified as Russian.  I seriously doubt that number went down in the last 10 years given the situation.  Everything else being posed is pure speculation and opinion.  The Russians will all leave.  The West will invest billions into what could be a front line region in a hybrid war…hell we will be lucky if we can get countries to invest in western Ukraine if Russia is still being the a$$hats they are likely going to be.  The logic of “well all the trouble makers will leave and only the ‘good’ Ukrainians or neutrals will stay while we drop billions into reconstruction is pretty tenuous at best.  

This is not over hyping in the least.  Overhyping is Tom Clancying the scenario where Russia start to support insurgency with WMDs.  As a baseline going in we are talking about “liberating” a region that has been living under Russian governance for a decade.  A region where we have seen some actions but no real insurgency or insurrection against Russian occupation for that same decade, even as this war unfolds.    

As to previously already re-liberated regions simply rolling over.  Well first of all we really do not know what they did [aside: Slovyansk has a population of about 100k, Crimea is over 2.2 million].  We do know LNR and DPR sent tens of thousands to fight the UA and I do not think they all did so at gunpoint.  And second, how quickly we forget the problems with Russian sympathizers and actions at the beginning of this war (eg Kherson).  And of course we have not discussed Russians simply sending “insurgents” over the border to make lives miserable…like they did the last time. 

This is a highly complex situation rooted deeply in the human space and that is never simple or easy by any stretch.  We are best prepared understanding the risks up front and ready to deal with them than pretending they can’t possibly happen.

Edited August 26, 2023 by The_Capt

[Beleg85]

59 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

I was kinda wondering about that lately.   How far do they have to penetrate towards the sea of Azov before it really causes problems.   A more realistic objective for this campaign might be capturing Tokmat. 

Even reaching Tokmak outskirts could be considered success in these conditions. What could happen to the city itself is another issue.

Btw. It's CEPA, so rather influencers of pro-Ukraine lobby than analysts per se.

55 minutes ago, sburke said:

“Everyone’s afraid,” Konstantin Remchukov, a Moscow newspaper editor with ties to the Kremlin, said of the reaction among the Russian elite to the plane crash Wednesday that Western officials theorize was caused by an explosion on board. “It’s just that everyone sees that anything is possible.”

Never before has someone so central to Russia’s ruling establishment been killed in a suspected state-sponsored assassination, said Mikhail Vinogradov, a Moscow political analyst.

“This is a rather harsh precedent,” Vinogradov said, adding that the Kremlin appeared to be doing little to dissuade Russians of the view that it had sanctioned Prigozhin’s killing. After all, if members of the ruling elite concluded that one of the Putin system’s most powerful players had been killed against the Kremlin’s wishes, it would send a devastating signal of Putin’s loss of control.

Worth to note Kremlin propaganda goons like Margo Simonyan posted plenty of "read between the lines: it's obvious who did it, so don't f..k up with Chief" messages to the public the hour they heard the news.

I frankly think that even insightful russia watchers like Galeotti are jumping before the wagon a little as to repercussions of this assasination. Many people in Zombieland, even Wagner fanboys, knew Prigozhin lived a life of borrowed time for last two months and they get used to the fact he will probably not live up to christmas. They may do some noise, but it is sound of helplessness. There are no leaders to take up the torch Prigozhin dropped. Hell, even Girkin is arrested. So Putin in the end rather bring back order into his house, at least formally.

We witness on our own eyes how regime that was relatively non-opressive (on Russian scale) is forced to become much more harsh; not because by leader's design (in fact against it), but by gravity of the situation alone, various internal pressures and political necessities of keeping afloat. I can bet there are proscription lists with names of smaller players circulating right now somewhere inside Kremlin walls. It's getting like cheap Greek tragedy. Or rather one of  Iannucci's political farse.

These kind of things we usually know from deep history- not every despot wants to become totalitarian, in fact very few; but they are pushed into the corner further and further by logic they didn't initially predicted. A fascinating process to watch if somebody is interested in history of political thought.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Beleg85

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Worth to note Kremlin propaganda goons like Margo Simonyan posted plenty of "read between the lines: it's obvious who did it, so don't f..k up with Chief" messages to the public the hour they heard the news.

I don't think there is any doubt but if per chance the Kremlin didn't do it, they are kind of obligated to hint they did.

[dan/california]

Russians don't seem to like it when they are the side without artillery.