How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

The warning at the end of the post is very interesting.  Seems he already knew the the Ukrainian story, that this was a planned mutiny and not an accident, and tried to "get out ahead of it".  Which reinforces the credibility of the Ukrainian story since if there is a conflict over fact, chances are pretty good it isn't the Russians that are correct

Steve

[Beleg85]

Nothing new, but since it is nice map visualization of UA gains near Robotyne, I'll post it here (not sure how much actual cover over Tokmak Ukrainian tube artillary has, though):

The Armed Forces of Ukraine succeeded in the direction of Novodanilivka and Novoprokopivka in the Zaporizhia region, confirms the General Staff of Ukraine. After the capture of Robotyne, the Ukrainian troops are entrenched on the reached borders. The Ukrainian artillery is already fully reaching Tokmak, which is 25 km away. In two months, Ukrainian forces advanced only 7 km. However, it must be taken into account that the Ukrainians are moving closer to the occupiers' second line of defense in the city region, which may be weaker than the first.

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Nothing new, but since it is nice map visualization of UA gains near Robotyne, I'll post it here (not sure how much actual cover over Tokmak Ukrainian tube artillary has, though):

The Armed Forces of Ukraine succeeded in the direction of Novodanilivka and Novoprokopivka in the Zaporizhia region, confirms the General Staff of Ukraine. After the capture of Robotyne, the Ukrainian troops are entrenched on the reached borders. The Ukrainian artillery is already fully reaching Tokmak, which is 25 km away. In two months, Ukrainian forces advanced only 7 km. However, it must be taken into account that the Ukrainians are moving closer to the occupiers' second line of defense in the city region, which may be weaker than the first.

Thanks for that.  So it seems that the bulk of the defenders are BARS units, with 22nd Spetsnaz holding positions to Ukraine's extreme left and 810th Marines holding the extreme right.  These units have been reconstituted several times, so let's not think of them as "elite", but probably are a cut above the normal units in play.

In the middle the middle, defending Novoprokopivka, is once again a mix of high numbered regimental formations (generally low quality) and the newly moved elements of the 108th Air Assault Regiment.  ISW mentions some elements of the 503rd Mot Rifle RGT being moved to the NW in the vicinity of Nesteryanka, but that's not in the immediate area.

Kadyrov's TicTok Warriors are in the middle area, but not currently in frontline positions?

The takeaway I see here is that Russia has one standard unit on each of the flanks and the middle, with a mix-mash of volunteer and mobik units making up the bulk of the defenders.  At least it looks that way.  We really don't know what the strength of any of these units is.

Steve

[Kraft]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Kadyrov's TicTok Warriors are in the middle area, but not currently in frontline positions?

Last week? There was a video of confused UA soldiers walking casually through a Russian position with equally confused Akhmat guys, who got whack-a-mole'd after a short conversation.

That could have been a different front though, I am not sure anymore.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

Embraer 600, RA-02795, belonged to Prigozhyn crashed about 30 minutes ago in Tver' oblast, after taking off from Moscow. This businessjet was spotted six times during two months, flying between Russia and Belarus, were PMC wagner were redeploying trhere. But reportedly this jet wasn't main aircraft of Prigozhyn.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Embraer 600, RA-02795, belonged to Prigozhyn crashed about 30 minutes ago in Tver' oblast, after taking off from Moscow. 

 

https://t.me/grey_zone/20163

Quote

️The business jet "Embraer Legacy 600" with registration number RA-02795, which belonged to Yevgeny Prigozhin, was shot down by air defense fire at the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in the Bologovsky district of the Tver region.

 

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

https://t.me/grey_zone/20163

 

So, I guess that levels the score...if Prig was not inside.

[pintere]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Embraer 600, RA-02795, belonged to Prigozhyn crashed about 30 minutes ago in Tver' oblast, after taking off from Moscow. This businessjet was spotted six times during two months, flying between Russia and Belarus, were PMC wagner were redeploying trhere. But reportedly this jet wasn't main aircraft of Prigozhyn.

️️Evgeny Prigozhin was among the passengers on the plane that crashed in the Tver region, - Russian Aviation Authorities
 

https://t.me/pilotblog/6206

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

https://t.me/grey_zone/20163

 

Video of Embraer falling down. The woman says: "fu..k", this is a drone... It's was shot down. It's banged twice"

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[kraze]

if only russian AD shot more of these "drones" daily

but if they killed prig... well... too bad it wasn't us.

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, pintere said:

️️Evgeny Prigozhin was among the passengers on the plane that crashed in the Tver region, - Russian Aviation Authorities
 

https://t.me/pilotblog/6206

Staged death as variant. During the search in Prigozhyn's office, several documents of different surnames with a a photo of Prigozhyn were found. I think he can have own double, like and Putin

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Staged death as variant. During the search in Prigozhyn's office, several documents of different surnemes with a a photo of Prigozhyn were found. I think he can have own double, like and Putin

More than one probably :

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

if only russian AD shot more of these "drones" daily

but if they killed prig... well... too bad it wasn't us.

The funny thing is it really could be Putin saying bleep it kill that annoying b@$$@d, or it really could some random air defense unit around Moscow that was told they were headed to a trench in Bakmuht with one mag and a bayonet if they let another drone get past. We may never know given the volume of lies on all side we are about to be assaulted with. Of course there will a whole other conspiracy theory that he isn't really dead.

Edit: Ninjad by the better man. 

Edited August 23, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

if only russian AD shot more of these "drones" daily

but if they killed prig... well... too bad it wasn't us.

We have good National Flag Day indeed - Moscow strike, S-400 hit, Mi-8 story, now Prig's jet downed by Russians %)

[Beleg85]

Anyway, nice refreshment after all those tea and window mems.

 

Oh, now some media say also Utkin was on the plain.

[Splinty]

They couldn't get Prig to stand near a window. So they put him on a plane.

[mosuri]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

We have good National Flag Day indeed - Moscow strike, S-400 hit, Mi-8 story, now Prig's jet downed by Russians %)

And I hoped the plane fell because of shoddy maintenance and lack of fresh spares due to embargo. Just because... but friendly fire is fine too!

Edited August 23, 2023 by mosuri
edited because of too quick clicky click

[billbindc]

The knee jerk reaction to this is going to be that Putin put the finisher on the last coup. The reality is that Prigozhin was no longer necessary for the next one. That will not stop a wave of claims that Putin's back in charge, that things are turning his way, etc. Don't believe the hype.

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, Splinty said:

They couldn't get Prig to stand near a window. So they put him on a plane.

Planes also have windows, so let's not loose hope they stayed true to the form in a way   Perhaps it will be official Kremlin explanation .

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

The knee jerk reaction to this is going to be that Putin put the finisher on the last coup. The reality is that Prigozhin was no longer necessary for the next one. That will not stop a wave of claims that Putin's back in charge, that things are turning his way, etc. Don't believe the hype.

I am very curious how Wagner employers will react to that. It is still sizeable force, albeit scattered.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[TheVulture]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

We have good National Flag Day indeed - Moscow strike, S-400 hit, Mi-8 story, now Prig's jet downed by Russians %)

And as an off-topic bonus, India successfully completed the tricky task of landing near the moon's south pole, just to rub some salt in to the wound of Russia's inability to pull of an easier lunar landing a few days before.

Not something that matters in itself, but it's just another little reminder to Russians that Russia is not one of the world leaders in technology any more.

[Beleg85]

Video (beware:graphic) from the place of the crash:

https://twitter.com/WarNewsPL1/status/1694394816308646363

[ZPB II]

Prigozhin will be declared dead and after a few months strange rumours will start circulating about a certain Polkovnik Kurtz in Congo...

EDIT: RU Telegram rumours are that the entire high command of Wagner was aboard the plane.

The fast confirmation makes it all a bit suspicious, a plane crash is a good way to fake someone's disappearance.

Edited August 23, 2023 by ZPB II

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Planes also have windows, so let's not loose hope they stayed true to the form in a way   Perhaps it will be official Kremlin explanation .

I am very curious how Wagner employers will react to that. It is still sizeable force, albeit scattered.

I suspect the most common reaction will be to sign up in one form or another with other factions (i.e. Rosneft, Rosgvardia) or to simply bail out (Africa, private security, etc). They represent the most vehement nationalists so while their skills will be prized, they will be distrusted by the power structure. It's equivalent to destroying the SA without the SS there to pick up the slack. 

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I suspect the most common reaction will be to sign up in one form or another with other factions (i.e. Rosneft, Rosgvardia) or to simply bail out (Africa, private security, etc). They represent the most vehement nationalists so while their skills will be prized, they will be distrusted by the power structure. It's equivalent to destroying the SA without the SS there to pick up the slack. 

If Utkin is indeed dead too, it will be most probable outcome. But it will be crucial now for regime to act fast and capture all Wagner assets; from what I read, their network in Africa is only half state-controlled, and probably full of hidden businessess and local personal contacts that may be lost now.

Overal, it is not good news for Ukraine; the scent of the rot in the form of notion that boss is not entirely in charge, that sorrounded regime during last months will likely be removed. Any potentiall dissent will need to acknowledge now that Putin will not tolerate insubordination.

Jesus, they have such grotesquely orkish manners there...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lco9Ki-5qfQ

 

[AlsatianFelix]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The knee jerk reaction to this is going to be that Putin put the finisher on the last coup. The reality is that Prigozhin was no longer necessary for the next one. That will not stop a wave of claims that Putin's back in charge, that things are turning his way, etc. Don't believe the hype.

I'm in the camp that thinks Prighozin's rebellion was a Putin operation to flush out generals not loyal to Putin. If correct, this is the generals striking back at Putin. Could get interesting.