How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

The spoils of war In METT-TC C for civilians you just can't lose if you have them on your side. 

 

 

[Beleg85]

Haiduk already mentioned this episode, but now Russians released video of small Ukrainian boat being destroyed (?) by their planes:

This is the fate of boats, small missile ships (MORs), etc. without air cover. In the video, the Ukrainian boat Willard Marine's SEA FORCE ® 700 destroyed by the fire of the 30mm cannon GSz-30-1 from the Su-30SM near the Island of Vipers/Snakes.

[hcrof]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Haiduk already mentioned this episode, but now Russians released video of small Ukrainian boat being destroyed (?) by their planes:

This is the fate of boats, small missile ships (MORs), etc. without air cover. In the video, the Ukrainian boat Willard Marine's SEA FORCE ® 700 destroyed by the fire of the 30mm cannon GSz-30-1 from the Su-30SM near the Island of Vipers/Snakes.

I don't want to be "that guy" but given the dispersion of the cannon rounds I can see maybe the boat took a hole or 2 but it is unlikely to have sunk outright? How many rounds does a su-30 carry? Could there be more shots unrecorded?

[cesmonkey]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Western Crimea, Tarkhankut cape. Olenivka (rus. Yelenovka). No information to this time what's happened.

 

Rybar says the military facilities there were struck by missiles from the sea. And while Russia sank several small Ukrainian boats, some got away.

https://t.me/rybar/51052

Quote

The drones were shot down, but almost immediately after the launch of anti-aircraft missiles, three Ukrainian missiles were fired from the sea .

Twitter version:

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by cesmonkey

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I don't want to be "that guy" but given the dispersion of the cannon rounds I can see maybe the boat took a hole or 2 but it is unlikely to have sunk outright? How many rounds does a su-30 carry? Could there be more shots unrecorded?

This is good question, as video from the plane is too shaky to tell the real outcome of this engagement. Some comments from TG channels did inded seem to confirm the boat was sunk with the crew, but hard to tell how valid they are.

Another interesting issue is how effective could be Manpads when used from a boat conducting such sudden maneuvers.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Beleg85

[Teufel]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is an interesting development.  The left flank of Robotyne may be widening.  Looking at a map this could put Ukraine in a position of cutting the road between Tokmak and Polohy.  It also looks like it puts them decidedly behind Russia's first line of defenses.

Indeed, ISW has quite a bit to say about the current state of affairs and even aimed some criticism towards the NYT article (and others) that are second guessing Ukraine's strategy:

This is inline with discussions had here.  Bakhmut is too important for Russia to give up easily, so Ukraine is smart to keep pushing there to tie up Russian resources.  This is especially smart because the commitment of new forces there is apparently still minimal.

ISW also gave us some more confirmation that Russia is fighting so hard for its 1st line of defenses because its 2nd line isn't as strong.  More importantly, there's few troops to shore up the 1st line and there's scant information about regular units manning the 2nd line.  Some of the positively ID'd units are those that have been actively engaged in combat for several months without rotation, so their fighting strength is likely significantly degraded.

 

Steve

Speaking of Robotyne direction and the progress made there. We have discussed this at length previously, including my own wall of text about probable directions of advance on Mariupol. It will not go through settlements but across the hills to the west of them. Kicking in open doors we did but interesting segment and article that is well worth reading in full, but short extract;

“With this new combination of the 82nd and 47th, Ukraine is now attempting to break through Russia’s defense line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. It is here that Ukraine has an opportunity to finally fight past all of Russia’s counter offensive defenses on higher ground, and start fighting downhill for a change

…

Once Ukraine is able to wrest that height advantage away from the Russians, it could be Ukraine that advances downhill upon enemy positions—perhaps in a battle that might make “hill” history.“

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/19/2188117/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-about-to-reach-the-downhill-part-of-the-Tokmak-offensive-literally

Tom Coop has one of his extensive updates in long time and weighs in also about this direction per;

”Confirmed by two sources (so far): Ukrainian troops are on northern and eastern edges of Novoprokopivka ('that village south of Robotyne').  I'm only not sure since when: it's possible that they've reached it already 3-4 days ago, actually.  As mentioned in my earlier updates, the place is defended by the 55 (or is it 58th?) and 108th VDV Regiments of the 7th VDV Division.  The 201st MRR was rushed east, in attempt to retain/recover the Hill 166 - where, me thinks, the actual 'crucial battle' of this campaign is going on for some 4-5 days now.”

See full post here; https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-21-august-2023-hill-166

Edited August 23, 2023 by Teufel

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Rybar says the military facilities there were struck by missiles from the sea. And while Russia sank several small Ukrainian boats, some got away.

https://t.me/rybar/51052

Twitter version:

 

Rybar usually writes pure fantasy, with a small grain of salt %) In theory we could move Neptune or Harpoon to Zmiinyi - the distance from island to SAM site was about 190 km, so in range. But this is too risky, because Russians are continuosly tracking the island and periodically attack it with guided bombs. Also I doubt about capability of AS missiles to hit so small coastal objects like S-400 TEL. So I would be bet on Storm Shadow/SCALP

PS. One Russian TG claims it was UKR converted S-200.

PPS. Russian TGs angry because of Ukraine has opportunity to track the strike at the "best SAM in the world" in real time with drone.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

How many rounds does a su-30 carry?

150

[Haiduk]

Rybar now is telling this was not Neptun or Harpoon, but naval variant of UK Brimstone II missile, having 30 km of range. And not S-400 was destroyed, but S-300 and fuel truck. And allegedly result of the strike filmed UKR UAV Tekever AV5, handed over by Portugal. 

I wonder, how it possible to launch Brimstone from Willard RHIB %), because I doubt any usual boat like pr.1400 or Island-class or bigger vessel could approach to Crimea on 20-30 km and do not be spotted and destroyed by patrol ships and aircraft. 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Tarkhankut cape is a powerful radar post, were newest long-range radar complex 55Zh6M "Nebo-M" was deployed

In June 2023 were spotted next surviellance radars of this complex:

RLM-M "Nebo-SVU" (meter range radar) - left on the photo

RLM-D "Protivnik-G" (decemeter range radar)

Santimeter radar RLM-S "Gamma-S1" of this complex wasn't spotted, but other radar 39N6E Kasta-2 (3-coordinates decemeter range radar) was present - it's right on the photo

All these radars are capable to detect any type of targets, including high-speed ballistic and stealth from 40 km on 100 m altitude to 400-600 km on larger altitudes. Its can also track 200 aerial targets with high refresh rate of situation 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian authorities of Kaluga oblast claim two UKR drones were shot down over Shaikovka airfield. This is the second attack on this airfield for two days. GUR claimed in first atatck Tu-22M3 was damaged, but no evidences yet.

Airfield near Shaikowka town.

[Joe982]

India successfully landed a ship on the moon.

Fabulous!  Go India!

Modi will meet with Putin and talk about..................football 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Joe982

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Another interesting issue is how effective could be Manpads when used from a boat conducting such sudden maneuvers.

GUR released footage of them  launching Manpads at an Su-30 while under the Su's gun runs, however, I guess because the pilot is aware of the threat he can more easily evade.

https://t.me/karymat/3368

Edited August 23, 2023 by Kraft

[cesmonkey]

Reportedly, the capture of the Mi-8 helicopter was a planned operation.

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/111288
 

Quote

Operational Armed Forces
The incredible journey of the Russian Mi-8 crew to the Poltava region https://t.me/operativnoZSU
Special operation of the GUR, which lasted more than 6 months. 

Intelligence lured a Russian Mi-8 helicopter with a pilot to Ukraine.

Along with the pilot, there were two crew members on board who did not know where the helicopter was actually going. 
The Mi-8 landed in the Kharkiv region. 
As a result of the special operation, two crew members were eliminated.

The pilot remained in Ukraine, his family was taken to Ukraine early. Now the pilot and his family are in Ukraine.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Good article in NYT about Russian recruiting messaging and effectiveness.  It boils down to "be a real man and earn lots of money" and almost no mention of what the fighting is all about.  Appealing to alpha male mentality and bank accounts does seem to indicate, just maybe, that there really isn't a cause for war worthy of being proud of?  Nah, who am I kidding... this is really about Russia's survival war against HATEO.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/world/europe/russia-war-military-recruitment-campaign.html

Steve

[Jr Buck Private]

9 hours ago, Carolus said:

Another hit in Moscow. When these drone attacks started I was amazed how they managed to take out precise office locations. 

There are also rumors of explosions in two other Russian towns and in Sevastopol. Car traffic on the Kerch Bridge was temporarily suspended.

Even though the Ukrainian attacks are small in size and number, this up and down without knowing when something will hit must also be stress (or dare I say "friction") for the Russian system. 

And with meaningful targets, the impact is actually bigger than Russia flattening another residential block in Ukraine with a ballistic missile. As was discussed here, the latter is purely motivated by apeish sadism, but does not affect Ukrainian military capabilities.

I love these drone attacks on Moscow.   Like miniture Doolittle raids to let the enemy civilization know they aren't exactly untouchable.   Psychology is important.   Like capturing Bakmut would also be a big news blow back in Orc-land.   I'd also like to see a couple Armata tanks get blown to pieces as well.

[Haiduk]

36 minutes ago, Kraft said:

GUR released footage of them  launching Manpads at an Su-30 while under the Su's gun runs, however, I guess because the pilot is aware of the threat he can more easily evade.

https://t.me/karymat/3368

If you can't open this video, here is GUR twitter copy. Looks like this is other engagement, not near Zmiinyi, but near one of captured in 2014 by Russians "Boiko's rig". I wonder - is it possibly doesn't guard? No small arms fire or ATGMs launches from the rig at GUR RHIBs

PS. UKR MoD rejected Russian claims about destroying of the boat near Zmiinyi. But if something like this really happened we will know this for the year, like about failed landing on Zmiinyi in May 2022.

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

38 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Reportedly, the capture of the Mi-8 helicopter was a planned operation.

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/111288
 

 

Ive also heard the chopper was transporting rare Su-27 and Su-30M spare parts. There even is a picture of some fancy storage package, with blood all over, although this DMR-400T relay? Box doesnt seem rare from a quick web search.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Ive also heard the chopper was transporting rare Su-27 and Su-30M spare parts. There even is a picture of some fancy storage package, with blood all over.

Photo of captured Mi-8AMTSh and spare parts for jets.

 

Russian TGs claims the helicopter landed not on Poltava city airfield, but near Poltava village (28 km SW from Kupiansk) in Kharkiv oblast. 

The same helicopter in Russian service. Russian spotter resources closed own database, but JetPhotos says this photo was shot on Tolmachyovo airfield - this is civil airport and military airbase in Novosibirsk. On this base deployed Mi-8AMTSH of two units: mixed squadron of 32nd mixed transport aviation regiment and 337th helicopter regiment. Both units belonged to 14th AF/AD Army of Central military district 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

If you can't open this video, here is GUR twitter copy. Looks like this is other engagement, not near Zmiinyi, but near one of captured in 2014 by Russians "Boiko's rig". I wonder - is it possibly doesn't guard? No small arms fire or ATGMs launches from the rig at GUR RHIBs

OK, makes sense that Ukraine brought MANPADS with them.  Would have been nice if they hit, but we all know that is unlikely.  "Fast movers" are difficult to engage with MANPADS.

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

PS. UKR MoD rejected Russian claims about destroying of the boat near Zmiinyi. But if something like this really happened we will know this for the year, like about failed landing on Zmiinyi in May 2022.

I've taken a peek into my brain and can not find information on the failed landing.  Could you please remind me of the details?  Thanks!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian 2S4 heavy SP-mortar was destroyed by FPV drone in Bakhmut

 

Another part of warfare that has changed due to drones is the ability to use tall buildings for cover.  Prior to drones it was possible to park assets "behind" a building based on known direction of enemy artillery.  Due to the natural arc of artillery rounds, it would be impossible to land a round right on the asset.  Best the enemy could do is slam some rounds into a building and hope the debris fell onto the asset.  Not so with drones.  Those little buggers can go wherever they want.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

Yesterday Budanov said (more or less) “Watch what happens in Crimea tomorrow.” Today Ukraine destroyed a Russian S-400 system and had a reconnaissance drone overhead filming the explosion. We’ve entered the Babe-Ruth-calling-his-shot phase of HUR’s war.