How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 hours ago, Butschi said:

As for fighting for my country: That is precisely the point. I couldn't care less about my country. My country is just a bunch of lines on a map.

The Russo-Ukraine War shows precisely why this point of view, while ostensibly based on deep,universal insights, springs from a very specific set of circumstances. Namely, one where one's country and nation is free of any actual danger.

Apologies for saying the obvious, but it seems necessary. A country is a territorial pollitical organisation within which lives a group of people, called a nation. If you do not care about your country, you do not care about whether that group of people - including you-  is self governed, or subjected to other country, therefore another nation. Alternatively, you do not care whether your nation gets to use a particular territory, or is deprived of it by another nation - thus impacting e.g. the natural resources, trade routes, etc. avaliable to the group, which includes you. 

Not caring for your country does not therefore make much rational sense, because things which affect your country affect you, your family, your descendants, etc. It seems to me, that in fact, people say "I couldn't care less about my country" because either they consider the risk of having to defend their country as practically non-existent and therefore they do not seriously think about it, or at the back of their minds there lies is an unspoken assumption, that it does not matter whether you are German, French, or Dutch. I am not sure, but I am not going to dispute that about those 3 countries. However, it is absolutely clear to me that it is crucially important whether you are Ukrainian or Russian, as this war abundantly proves.

And as regards the random lines on the map called Ukraine, they decide e.g. whether the nation called Ukrainians will have access to ports of the Azov sea and able to export their grain through them. Or whether the Crimean Penninsula will be within those random lines, or on the other side of random lines and therefore under the control of whoever at the time is the tyrant of Russia, threatening the nation of Ukrainians with naval invasion. By defending those lines on map they are defending their future well-being. The position "I support your right to decide for yourselves but Ido not support your fight for the borders" is self-contradictory and thus obviously wrong, because the right to decide for themselves obviously includes the right to decide how to develop Ukrainian land. 

 

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, JonS said:

Isn't this a somewhat ... romanticized (heh) take on the composition of the legions?

Oh, for some of them at different points- for sure. But while great houses dominated politics, it cannot be simply put away that Republic was mixed form of government (Polibius goes into great detail explaing it to fellow Greeks), with elections, citizenship, very developed and jealusly guarded privileges of the common people. Generally up to I Cent. BC. average citizen with some basic possession in Rome probably had great pride of their state and his policies, and felt very well embedded in both state apparatus and ethnicity- in other words, he was part of a nation. The amount of commoners who willingly joined Civil Wars is actually testament to that- one cannot wage them only with retinues, clientes and mercenaries, not on this scale as we saw at the end of Republic.

 

Going back to the topic- there are more valid signs some provocations are in the making along the border; I don't believe mercs will stand still. Today one guy was cought in PL with stickers 'Wagner is Here" being put on display in some public (and less public) places, which are found in other cities as well. Of course Belarussian by birth.

Luka and Prig are up to something, and odd last words byLukashenka may be testimony to that. Perhaps it will only be "perceptive" campaign, but still.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[kraze]

8 minutes ago, poesel said:

Zelenskyy fired all the heads of the regional recruitment centers. @Haiduk - could you maybe comment on this?

 

Can give you my take. Internal populist move designed to outshine a bunch of recent scandals.

It's illegal to fire someone without a cause, especially when these firings are ordered to be made by a person with no jurisdiction (Zaluzhnyy) because we have special committees that can do that legally - and amplified by corrupt courts those heads are getting restored to their workplaces in a month tops.

Move along.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

27 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Yes! Do I think that it is worth fighting for being on this side or the other side of the Dutch/German border? Nope.

Do you think it is worth fighting for being a citizen of Ukraine or subject of Putin? That is a consequence of being on this or that side of a border, just a different one.

[kevinkin]

 

15 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Multi-mode warheads are definitely going to be a thing on future small drones. For anti-personnel, I'm imagining an expanding rod warhead like on smaller AA missiles that would target the limbs of soldiers. For vehicles, you probably want something that can either go HE or thermobaric (ie delay the boom to spray metal powders/vapor in the air).

Flying UAV grenades are very effective in static warfare. The way to make those irrelevant is in a crushing war of movement across all domains. The west has proven to ill prepared to meet their rhetoric and commit it's own blood to break the stalemate or risk the unspeakable. Therefore flying grenades are here for a while and weapons innovation will come from the grunts on the ground not DRAPA. Most of the forward thinking envisions static warfare in urban environment - not on terrain considered perfect for mechanized warfare. I never bought into that concept since unban centers are already cordoned off for their access to sustenance. And it's the borderland that is the battleground. Just like a traditional grenade, UAVs need to get into position to be used. DRAPA could lend a hand in disrupting flying grenades prior to use. But it just more complete to overrun the operators wherever they signal from.  

[Maciej Zwolinski]

22 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

It's not much of an exaggeration for the Republican period, at least up to about 100 BC. After the professionalization of the legions loyalties shifted significantly.

There were a lot of societal tensions arising from Rome's armies being based on conscripted citizens. Especially in the case of longer wars which did not result in territorial conquest, the soldiers who had left their farms for years came back as paupers. Hence the political campaigns for debt forgiveness and land reform, and plebeian strikes.

However, they always managed to patch things up sufficiently to keep the conscription a viable model until a series of defensive and colonial wars around the time of Marius.

[Carolus]

20 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Do you think it is worth fighting for being a citizen of Ukraine or subject of Putin? That is a consequence of being on this or that side of a border, just a different one.

And that consequence is determined by exactly the factors Butschi mentioned, not by what was written in a treaty in 1991.

I think you are mistaking the real factors (values, utility, law) that make a derivative concept like borders useful for the derivative concept itself.

I do not care if my home is part of Germany, the Netherlands, France or Denmark. It could be the United States of Europe for all I ccare. It could be Ameropa or Eumerica even. Maybe it will be in 150 years if Russia or China doesn't manage to apply "divide and conquer" to the West until then.

But if Russia (in a parallel dimension where Russia could) attacks Poland, and my number is called up because NATO declares article 5, I will go readily to the mobilisation office, not because I value the soil of Poland, but because I want to help protect the Polish people from Russian occupation.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 minute ago, Carolus said:

And that consequence is determined by exactly the factors Butschi mentioned, not by what was written in a treaty in 1991.

I think you are mistaking the real factors (values, utility, law) that make a derivative concept like borders useful for the derivative concept itself.

I totally do not understand the point you are making here.

Mine is simple: a country's borders limit the area of that country's political control. If Ukraine wants to be a democracy, people within its borders will live in democracy. People within borders of other countries will be unaffected by Ukraine's political choice. Hence, If you cede part of land within that border to Russia, the people living in that part will be afffected by political choices of Russia, which currently is putinism.

How "not real" that factor is? How "derivative" that concept is? You have lost me there mate.

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, Carolus said:

not because I value the soil of Poland, but because I want to help protect the Polish people from Russian occupation.

That's analogous to the missionary reasoning in spreading ideas and in that case religion. Religion without borders. Analogous to spreading democracy and freedom in a secular way to those that live in tyranny. Except some missionaries love the idea on a one world world government. I don't ascribe to that and will stop. But say some on the political side would love one world world government. Done. 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

is it safe to fly a plane over Huliaypole?

 

Our aviation supports our troops there - Su-25, helicopters. On the enemy positions in Urozhayne, which was allegedly liberated today, two JDAMs were fropped yesterday (likely Su-24M), so this is not one way ticket for our jets to fly there. Though, I don't know what altitude is needed for SS launch 

Edited August 12, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

13 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

43 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Yes! Do I think that it is worth fighting for being on this side or the other side of the Dutch/German border? Nope.

Do you think it is worth fighting for being a citizen of Ukraine or subject of Putin? That is a consequence of being on this or that side of a border, just a different one.

Seriously? I literally answered this in the next two sentences.

Quote

Yes! Do I think that it is worth fighting for being on this side or the other side of the Dutch/German border? Nope. Because that is just a line on the map that has relatively little impact on daily life nowadays. On which side of the Russian/Ukrainian border you are (be it draw dashed or solid) has an impact and I get why people what to fight for that.

Actually I wanted to answer your other post but... this now makes me too upset to answer in a non-snarky way. Let's leave it at that and anyway, everything I'd write is somewhere in one of my other posts...

[Butschi]

24 minutes ago, Carolus said:

And that consequence is determined by exactly the factors Butschi mentioned, not by what was written in a treaty in 1991.

I think you are mistaking the real factors (values, utility, law) that make a derivative concept like borders useful for the derivative concept itself.

I do not care if my home is part of Germany, the Netherlands, France or Denmark. It could be the United States of Europe for all I ccare. It could be Ameropa or Eumerica even. Maybe it will be in 150 years if Russia or China doesn't manage to apply "divide and conquer" to the West until then.

But if Russia (in a parallel dimension where Russia could) attacks Poland, and my number is called up because NATO declares article 5, I will go readily to the mobilisation office, not because I value the soil of Poland, but because I want to help protect the Polish people from Russian occupation.

Well said and more succinct than the way I put it.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

Seriously? I literally answered this in the next two sentences.

Do you agree that it invalidates your original point then?

It was "I do not care about what country I am a citizen of". Well, you do care yourself, if that other country could be Russia. So in fact, your original point should be narrowed down to "I do not care about what Western European country I am a citizen of".

Yet you expressed that in universal terms, without realising that it was a view limited in time and place to a specific corner of the world. That is the hidden bias I was talking about, which I am afraid colours the thinking about Ukraine a lot. They are not in Western Europe and have different perspective.

 

[JonS]

15 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Well, you do care yourself, if that other country could be Russia.

No, as he has explained several times, he cares which system he lives under. The differences between the Netherlands, Germany, France and Denmark in that part of Europe are negligible, and life under any of them would be about the same.

Would it be worth going to war with any of those other three for the "honour" of a slightly different passport? No.

And if Russia were a modern secular welfare state with a functional democracy and rule of law then life while holding a Russian passport would also be about the same, and also not worth a war.

Edited August 12, 2023 by JonS

[dan/california]

Looked like a failed attempt at a barrel roll to me.

Edited August 12, 2023 by dan/california

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, JonS said:

And if Russia were a modern secular welfare state with a functional democracy and rule of law then life while holding a Russian passport would also be about the same, and also not worth a war.

Which still misses the point, that borders delineate the area under control of a nation, which can and will decide on its political course also for the future. Assuming "Russia were a modern secular welfare state with a functional democracy and rule of law" in 2023 and someone took up residence within Russian borders on that basis, he would throw his lot with the Russians and run the risk of Russia reverting to its authoritarian ways. If he is a German national of liberal persuasion in 2023, so far he runs only the risk of AFD forming a government, which is probably less probable.The point is trivial, but somehow was missed anyway - borders matter beyond the immediate political horizon.

This seems similar to Fukuyama's "end of history" fallacy of the early 1990s. Everybody seemed to be happy with liberal democracy, so liberal democracy will carry on everywhere forever. Well, it has not.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Which still misses the point, that borders delineate the area under control of a nation, which can and will decide on its political course also for the future

I will add an actual example instead of hypothetical. Northern Ireland is part of the UK, and not part of the Republic of Ireland. Therefore, when Brexit happened they left the EU, whereas the people a few kms south of the border did not. Both countries are democracies and people made their choices to live on the northern or southern part of the border not based on life or death matters, but on tax, proximity to workplace, etc. Yet the Brexit happened for some of them, and did not for some others. Border mattered.

[chuckdyke]

I should be on Russian TV. The Kerch Bridge has destroyed another NATO Cruise Missile. 

 

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Which still misses the point

I think the point is that under the EU there is no reason for Germany to attack France at. al. Other than embedded cultural differences there is little difference between European nations, especially under the NATO and EU economic umbrella, to go to kinetic war over. 

[Vet 0369]

11 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I didn't want to start going over all the different interpretations of the wars in the Middle East, especially since I know some people here on these forums have been actively fighting there.

But yes, there are many different ways of looking at those wars, and that was my point - when the survey asked "Would you be willing to fight for your country", then Ukrainians and people in Western Europe will think of very different ways of fighting for their country.

Much of the value of the data from polls is directly related to the exact what and how the questions are written/asked. They can be manipulated in many different ways to elicit the answers the pollsters want for their points.

[kevinkin]

11 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I should be on Russian TV. The Kerch Bridge has destroyed another NATO Cruise Missile.

This might be a "rope a dope tactic" where the UA does not want to completely destroy the bridge beyond hope of repair thus keeping the bridge in the news and diverting Russian resources in the hope of repairing it. One hit every 10 days would do it. That's maneuver warfare thinking. Attack weakness; not strength. In this case keep the disabled symbolic bridge in the news hanging on for dear life knowing if the time comes you can collapse it.    

[Maciej Zwolinski]

8 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I think the point is that under the EU there is no reason for Germany to attack France at. al. Other than embedded cultural differences there is little difference between European nations, especially under the NATO and EU economic umbrella, to go to kinetic war over. 

Sure. And my point is that while this is correct for those countries, it is quite a limited set. And Ukraine's situation is totally different. 

Anyway, this seems to be going in circles, so I will probably leave it at that.

[chuckdyke]

Do Muhammed Ali proud. Roam with a Drone and strike like a Javelin.

Edited August 13, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Vet 0369]

11 hours ago, Astrophel said:

@Haiduk.

Your reactions from Breda I can just about imagine later in the evening after lots of drinks and nobody taking the issue too seriously.  The border is close and unguarded.  With our current knowledge of russian behaviour we are resolute, and support Ukraine in several ways.  However, talk costs little and you have to be able to make a difference in such a situation.

European professional armies never imagined fighting such an old-fashioned attritional artillery war with minefields and human wave attacks.  Nato armies are organised around the principle of air superiority.  Without air superiority we would be defeated quickly.  Perhaps we need to reconsider basic military strategy but that is not discussed at least in my circles.

The frustration in the Ukraine war is that, from a Nato perspective, you have one hand tied behind your back and missing a leg - you have no air power!.  

Thanks for your regular reports.  "Sterkte" - as we like to say in Netherlands.

One thing that I think many on this Forum don’t realize is that talk is cheap, especially from “chicken hawks” as many of us here who HAVE served tend to call those who talk a tough fight, but have never been put in a position to have to back up their words with actions. The most honest answer when asked what one would do in a situation is, I’ve never been exposed to that situation so I honestly don’t know what I would, only what I would hope to do. Even a person who has been in a situation never knows, but can only hope to handle it as before. This is because one might be a hero when dry, warm, well-fed, and have dry feet, but be a coward when wet, cold, hungry, and be standing in mud up to their ankles.

we all think we can be a Rambo or a Florence Nightingale, but never know if we can until AFTER the situation is over! And the whole subject is WAY OFF TOPIC in this thread.

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Butschi said:

That is what I was trying to explain with my story. Almost every country on this planet is the result of what some nobleman or other similar despot was able to take by force and was able to hold on to. A few hundred years ago, nobody cared about that. You ploughed your field and to which fiefdom you belonged had little meaning. Only with the birth of nation states were people deceived into believing these "lines on a map" had actual value by telling us it was about tradition and culture and all that.

If this line on a map is the border between civilization and tyranny, as in your case, that border has a meaning. But because of that not because of any construct called "nation". People, culture and tradition on this side of the German/Dutch border aren't much different than people on the other side. On the other hand, Swabians are an entirely different lot than people in Hamburg.

All humans whether we want to admit it to others, or even to ourselves are tribal, and will ultimately identify and align with others of our “tribe” as defined by our shared values, morality, shared heritage, and goals.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Vet 0369