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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  This was a launched weapon of some sort.  You can see it launching from the woodline and if you look carefully after you can see at least one Russian in that position.  This is VERY close range, perhaps 25m or so.  That's way too short a distance for most ATGMs to arm.

What it looks like to me is the missile traveled for only 15m or so then boosted and covered the remaining distance to impact the CV-90.  The explosion indicates either the warhead was armed or that it struck ERA (if Ukraine has stuck any on).

Curious.

Steve

In the movie "RED" (or its sequel) a revolverbullet hits an incoming RPG-rocket. Tv-show "mythbusters" had an episode that showed that such an unlikely hit was in fact a real (very rare) possibility.

Could it be that a round from the CV90 gun hit the incoming missile? 

Edited by Seedorf81
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51 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Like I just said...

 

Check out the “Bofors 3P” 40/57mm ammunition. Worth knowing is that the auto-cannon of CV40 has its origins in an old AA gun. The Bofors rounds were developed for use against trenches and fortifications where direct hits were difficult. Having them explode just above trenches or other obstacles the fragmentation rounds rained down tungsten pellets. BAE Systems is actually working on next generation of these, can you guess for what purpose?

Let me lend you a clue, if I may?

 

Edited by Teufel
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20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

One of forts times in this war when we can observe situation vehicles vs. antitank ditches/"dragon's teeth". It is not the first line, though according to maps.

 

Yellow mark on the map. 

Image

And Russian close video with this BMP. Operator says there are 3 "200th" inside, but obviously BMP was directed in unmanned mode. Maybe UKR testing BMP vs.ditch (but I doubt), but maybe and Russian staged video "look at fool ukies" %) 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Estimated UKR progress for yesterday

F2DoMJ3W4AAv2ym?format=jpg&name=large

But price is high. It's example why idea of initial involvemnt of tough Bradleys was right. New brigade, which should develop success lost seven vehicles on battlefield abandoned and destroyed close to main enemy trenches. This is 2,6 km from eastern outskirt of Robotyne. BMP-1 detanated after ATGM or RPG hit in side hull

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Ukrainian units of 35th marines brigade and 7th battalion "Arey" of Ukrainian Volunteer Arny (of Dmytro Yarosh) libereated Staromajorske village  (V.Npvosilka salient)

Yesterday situation map for this sector

Image

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  This was a launched weapon of some sort.  You can see it launching from the woodline and if you look carefully after you can see at least one Russian in that position.  This is VERY close range, perhaps 25m or so.  That's way too short a distance for most ATGMs to arm.

What it looks like to me is the missile traveled for only 15m or so then boosted and covered the remaining distance to impact the CV-90.  The explosion indicates either the warhead was armed or that it struck ERA (if Ukraine has stuck any on).

Curious.

Steve

Here is good example of what you just described of ATGM at close range. This is from Mariupol 2022 when NLAW was fired at T-72 from really close range. The impact ignited the fuel as the distance was too short to arm prior hitting the tank.

No clue what happened in the CV90 video, could be something similar. It looks like it does get hit second time and that hit is similar to first one. Video is cut short and resolution doesn’t lend much help in this regard.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/03/31/analysis-when-tank-busting-goes-wrong/amp/

Edited by Teufel
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14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian units of 35th marines brigade and 7th battalion "Arey" of Ukrainian Volunteer Arny (of Dmytro Yarosh) libereated Staromajorske village  (V.Npvosilka salient)

Yesterday situation map for this sector

Image

Thanks for those updates. This is the source for those maps, right?
 

 

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  This was a launched weapon of some sort.  You can see it launching from the woodline and if you look carefully after you can see at least one Russian in that position.  This is VERY close range, perhaps 25m or so.  That's way too short a distance for most ATGMs to arm.

What it looks like to me is the missile traveled for only 15m or so then boosted and covered the remaining distance to impact the CV-90.  The explosion indicates either the warhead was armed or that it struck ERA (if Ukraine has stuck any on).

Curious.

Steve

This is RPG-7.  You are seeing the booster rocket kick in after launching charge.

Edited by akd
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40 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Check out the “Bofors 3P” 40/57mm ammunition. Worth knowing is that the auto-cannon of CV40 has its origins in an old AA gun. The Bofors rounds were developed for use against trenches and fortifications where direct hits were difficult. Having them explode just above trenches or other obstacles the fragmentation rounds rained down tungsten pellets. BAE Systems is actually working on next generation of these, can you guess for what purpose?

Let me lend you a clue, if I may?

 

Yes a top grade 40mm gun with radar, infrared, and a 99% automatic targeting system can knock down drones in quantity. But as the The_Capt has discussed at length, that vehicle, with that gun, and that targeting system, is going to cost a MINIMUM of five million dollars. U.S./NATO needs thousands of them. given that guns have a relatively short effective range you need one of them for every mech platoon and artillery battery, at least one for every last 5k of a supply run, and, and.... It gets expensive rather quickly.

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Just now, kevinkin said:

A bit of the "Northern front" I wonder if Wagner just hanging out there is somewhat annoying to the UA when they are trying to breakthrough to the south? 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/with-wagner-in-belarus-tension-grows-on-northern-ukraine-border/ar-AA1epzu9

 

If Wagner does anything from Belarus Ukraine can demonstrate the meaning of interior lines and go take Minsk. It would be glorious.

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29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yes. I wonder what source of his map layer. Though, his location of units often too conditional, but useful enough. 

From his twitter post he says this as the source of his maps:
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua
(Ultimately OpenStreetMaps and OpenTopoMaps)

And this is the source of his units:
https://twitter.com/projectowlosint

 

Edited by cesmonkey
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24 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yes a top grade 40mm gun with radar, infrared, and a 99% automatic targeting system can knock down drones in quantity. But as the The_Capt has discussed at length, that vehicle, with that gun, and that targeting system, is going to cost a MINIMUM of five million dollars. U.S./NATO needs thousands of them. given that guns have a relatively short effective range you need one of them for every mech platoon and artillery battery, at least one for every last 5k of a supply run, and, and.... It gets expensive rather quickly.

There is no doubt that modern warfare is expensive, great posts on this few pages back. Was in context of combined arms and associated costs and complexity of training. Not suggesting drones are not part of the future, if anything this war has demonstrated their usefulness. Claiming otherwise is sleeping under a rock for the past year and half.

Needless to say, there are plenty of well paid people tasked with figuring out integrated systems as well as counter measures. One interesting such is the Israeli “Trophy” system, which the Russians quickly countered (claimed at least) with the RPG-30. Point being, there are no silver bullets around and we are looking at very interesting things in the near future.

PS! The BAE Systems platform is actually starting at around 2 MUSD. It’s not cheap but much like IKEA and Volvo it’s good value for your money.

Edited by Teufel
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Mass vs Precision….we must recall the importance of Western vs Soviet, tho we don’t have hard numbers, and probably not till the end of the war, Western vehicles, are essential for allowing survivability of personnel. I do think that this preservation of personnel has far reaching consequences for Ukraine, for the validity of future conflicts, for the world to consider. I am not smart enough to write on it, but I do think consideration of this has more to be analyzed.

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Bonus entry from end of May 2022 - speaking of putting Russians out of their misery.

Evacuation of wounded soldiers runs over a mine. At least they didn’t suffer for long from their injuries after being evacuated.

Edited by Teufel
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Hey all, just had a few minutes to go through the posts.  Thanks for the great info to keep folks like me informed. 

Looks like UKR really pushing now.  Spent 2 months attacking, shaping, more shaping more attacking, to get in best position possible. We've seen a huge amount of RU materiel go up in smoke, that has to help though might not be noticable the first few days.  After that RU arty shortages, if real, might become more apparent.  Also, RU wisely put lots of mechanized units up north plus a lot of arty -- Thanks Putin!  Fingers crossed for the next week or two.  Every UKR casualty is such a terrible tragedy, but hopefully they can cause RU collapse and end this damn war.

Now, back to day job, dang it.

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