How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Sometime I think that with help of Ukraine some countries also search a ways to get rid of own junk to burn it in flame of war and not waste money for utilization

I think, these 100 BTR-60 can be moved to rear TD brigades on Belarusian border. Or better to use them as SVBIEDs... Or remote-controlled minefield breachers %)

The video of this weird acrobatic dismounting way from this APC must be modelled in CMCW )))  

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seedorf81]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Well that was an unfortunate episode. But it's also unfortunate that Ukraine can't run for cover and they did call the cops in the name of the US. But the cops have so far arrived with insufficient firepower to end the dispute. Maybe that will change. 

Cops nearly always try to de-escalate. They prudently and cautiously wait, stall, negotiate and don't use brute and/or deadly force until all others methods fail. For hours and sometime days, if not longer, they try to reason with suspects/perpetrators and even the most brutal criminals. The cops usually try to make the outcome the best for everyone involved. Even if snipers and swat-teams and armored cars are ready to go.

Sure, a policeman sometimes wants to rush in and beat the crap out of a rapist or schoolshooter or whatever, but being in control of your emotions is nearly always better in the long run.

I think in the current Ukraine-war the US so far behaves as a well-trained clever policeman, and I hope they stay that way.

 

[Haiduk]

Odesa should be ready...

[Haiduk]

Likely spring photo

[FlemFire]

4 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I am not advocating nuclear war but advocating being more aggressive short of that. We will never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it. For example, would a no-fly zone over Ukraine instigate a nuclear war? Don't think so. Would a two week air campaign against Russian positions in Ukraine be dangerous. Maybe, maybe not. How did we come to the conclusion the current level of assistance to Ukraine is safe against escalation? We only know because we are giving it. I think measures directed to remove Russia from Ukraine, while not threatening Russia's existence, will not escalate. 

This isn't Syria. You won't have a no-fly zone. You'll have air-to-air combat between air forces, all within range of Russia's anti-air systems mind you, with fighters and bombers inevitably crossing borders and having their intentions misread, which will rapidly escalate into something worse. Russia isn't going to be very chill with Western aircraft zipping around their airspace and within minutes-distance of striking strategic assets. 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The group of Russian RIA "Novosti" journalists were hit by DPICM ammunition, when they drove to Pyatykhatky area to make a reportage about UKR DPICM usage %) All got wounds, but one of them has died - he was well-known propagandist in Russia - Rostislav Zhuravlyov. Recently he belonged to  National-Bolshevik Party and in 2014 participated in so-called "Russian spring" on Donbass. He participated in seizing of administrative buildings in Donetsk and later was a fighter of LNR battalion "Zarya" (now 4th motor-rifle brigade of LNR) 

My my...population of natio-bolshevik leaders and their recognized faces are melting in eyes. First Prilepin, now Zhuravlyov, several others prominent get shot or have accidents. A pitty Boroday is unharmed. But hey, even Girkin is arested now.

Whatever the outcome, this war will seriously reshape also Russian political landscape on far right.

 

Also, first serious signs of problem with veterans coming "home and crazy". Today armed gunman assaulted supposed home of Victor Yanukovycz. He shouted he fought in Ukraine, that his home "now belongs to God" (this is on RUssian police reports, so better be sceptical) and battled police for 5 hours with AK and molotovs before finally being shot.

It seems at least OMON-type formations found worthy adversary they could handle. But seriously, problem of veterans start to appear even in Russian TV lately. Not that they would introduce some solutions, just discuss it freely now.

 

Edited July 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

Interesting document - the warning order of 12th July for units, defending positions in 4km north from Robotyne. Now these positions already under control of UKR forces.

On the piece of map you can see minefields marking and fire sectors

 

Commander of 1429th motor-rifle regiment colonel Chernyshov orders:

1. <Covered>... enemy activated offensive actions, inflicts fire effect, ..... main efforts concentrates on....

2 <Covered> .... defense sustainability, reinforcing of discipline, ...., denying of unauthrized withdrawing from combat....[positions]. 

3. Up to 20:00 of 12th of July 2023 with a forces of 4th motor-rifle company (without 2nd platoon) of 2nd motor-rifle battlaion of 1429th MRR, with a group of medical company in interaction with commander of 429th MRR of 19th MRD to substitute 6th motor-rifle company of 2nd motor-rifle battalion of 1429th MRR in occupied area of defense. 

4.  To reinforce the 6th motor-rifle company of 2nd motor-rifle battalion of 1429th MRR with three crews of AGS-17, 3 crews of ATGM, 3 servicemen of sniper company, 3 servicemen of recon company and to the end of day to put at disposal of commander of 70th MRR of 42nd MRD. The area of transferring 6th MRCoy of 2nd MRBn of 1429th MRR is western outskirt of Verbove.

5. Area of defense of 5th MRCoy of 2nd MRBn of 1429th MRR to leave unchaged. 

6. The moving of personnel to conduct in the dark by small groups with in compliance of blackout. 

7. To enter into interaction with units of Rosgvardiya in areas of responsibility of specified units, provide full assistance in functioning of barrier detachments of Rosgvardiya

8. The readiness to executing of tasks from 7:00 of 13th of July 2023 

 

1429th regiment is Territorial Troops unit. Looks like 70th regiment of 42nd division suffered losses or UKR pressure in their section too strong, so Operative Groupment HQ (or even HQ of 42nd division ) ordered comamner of 1429th regiment to send own company at disposal of 70th regiment.    

Edited July 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

Another M55S gets hit. Not clear, how many shells fell, and It's not sure the tank is really destroyed. The turret hatch is open, so (some) of the crew may have survived.

 

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

they try to reason

Are you suggesting Putin can be reasoned with? I understand the analogy you are making but it just doesn't apply to warfare. Especially when one side only respects strength and dismisses nuisance. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by kevinkin

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Khalerick said:

This isn't Syria

No, it's far more important and therefore worth the added risk. 

 

1 hour ago, Khalerick said:

You'll have air-to-air combat between air forces, all within range of Russia's anti-air systems mind you, with fighters and bombers inevitably crossing borders and having their intentions misread, which will rapidly escalate into something worse. Russia isn't going to be very chill with Western aircraft zipping around their airspace and within minutes-distance of striking strategic assets. 

All that can be managed. That's why we spent so much money on the technology and training to enforce a no-fly zone. If Russia lights up an allied a/c they would be toast. Yes, there is risk. But I think it's worth it to save Ukraine. I do respect your thoughts on this. Tough call. 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Are you suggesting Putin can be reasoned with? I understand the analogy you are making but it just doesn't apply to warfare. Especially when one side only respects strength and dismisses nuisance. 

Yeah this seems to be a mistake Western politicians (except for Biden, despite half his country calling him weak) seem to be hellbent on making again and again and again. There is no diplomacy with mafia. Mafia thinks "if they're talking to us, that means they are weak and we can keep pushing" and Russia is a mafia as a state.

[Tux]

19 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This actually proves my point better.  It wasn’t just “competence and training” at Kasserine or Cusader.  It was learning.

When we hear that Ukrainian troops are being trained by NATO forces, would I be right in thinking that the main value of that (apart from basic fieldcraft, it being free and in a safe location, etc.) probably comes from the ‘cultural’ side of what the Ukrainians are being taught?  By which I mean are troops and units that are trained to NATO standards potentially more flexible and able to rapidly integrate lessons learned than a force trained in the Soviet model would be (more emphasis on lower-level initiative rather than top-down micromanagement-according-to-doctrine)?

I could be getting this completely wrong but I have to admit I’ve been assuming the above is the case for some months now and that all the emphasis on training of mechanised forces in large-scale manoeuvres has been a bit of a red herring.  To my mind NATO training can be a war-winning contribution if it catalyses the absorption of the harsh lessons of war into general Ukrainian battlefield practise and doctrine.  Indeed I hope that’s precisely where the emphasis is being placed.

I’m tired and not as articulate as I’d like to be at the moment but does that make sense?

[Rokko]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Likely spring photo

When I see pictures like this I sometimes think that people who develop camouflage patterns professionally have to be gnashing their teeth whenever they see footage from this war. Both sides use the same intricately designed patterns, scientifically crafted based on decades worth of studies and research to fool the human eye ... just for both sides to slap bright colored airsoft tape on top as much as possible to avoid friendly fire ... because IFF is kinda hard if your main source of observation and fire control are cheap commercial drones.

[Offshoot]

UK to send Malloy drones to Ukraine, capable of carrying equipment and even casualties

Quote

Uncrewed aerial systems like Malloy drones, operated by the British Army can move equipment, weapons, and even casualties from the front line, and are part of our ongoing aid package to Ukraine.

 

[David Fields]

With regard to attacking at multiple sites, say 3, as opposed to one place.  That will likely increase the pace of casualties?  Maybe not 3 times, but, still, increased?

And then doesn't one need to understand the grim "supply-chain" from evac to rehabilitation for the wounded?  I am not military, I am medical, and have worked in rehabilitation facilities.  We on the forum do not have much visibility into this (though it must be starkly and at times crushingly visible in places in UKR), but is there any "hey, what is our medical capacity?  How full are our hospitals?" when planning a significant assault operation?

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

When we hear that Ukrainian troops are being trained by NATO forces

Simple basic training of kids freshly reaching their 18 birthday is pretty much standardize and I don't think NATO's version will be some form of force multiplier. Lessons learned from the battlefield are very important for individual and small unit survival. But we can assume the the enemy is doing the same thing. What really matters in my opinion is training at the command level. Training the person to integrate the info coming from the top and from the trenches and act quickly as to out Boyd cycle the enemy. This training takes a lot more time and ideally involves training maneuvers. While not 100% reflective of real warfare, maneuvers are helpful in finding soldiers capable of commanding and leading rather that digging and pulling triggers. It's an imperfect science. In the case of Ukraine the needs are so immediate training at the command level might be skipped or abbreviated compared to what the US does in peace time. 

Edited July 22, 2023 by kevinkin

[panzermartin]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Sometime I think that with help of Ukraine some countries also search a ways to get rid of own junk to burn it in flame of war and not waste money for utilization

I think, these 100 BTR-60 can be moved to rear TD brigades on Belarusian border. Or better to use them as SVBIEDs... Or remote-controlled minefield breachers %)

The video of this weird acrobatic dismounting way from this APC must be modelled in CMCW )))  

 

I've heard, when on tour, the Bolhsoi ballet uses the BTR-60

[kevinkin]

4 minutes ago, David Fields said:

what is our medical capacity?

Back in the Spring we did discuss this. The net was we are just relying on videos of brave souls taking care of the wounded. A Ukrainian medical system exists for the troops, but its not a very sexy topic. Someone will write a gripping book on the topic after the war. For now, keep the media out of the way and let the the system work its miracles. I am sure it could be better. But it's probably as good as the damn war will permit. 

[Sojourner]

15 minutes ago, David Fields said:

With regard to attacking at multiple sites, say 3, as opposed to one place.  That will likely increase the pace of casualties?  Maybe not 3 times, but, still, increased?

And then doesn't one need to understand the grim "supply-chain" from evac to rehabilitation for the wounded?  I am not military, I am medical, and have worked in rehabilitation facilities.  We on the forum do not have much visibility into this (though it must be starkly and at times crushingly visible in places in UKR), but is there any "hey, what is our medical capacity?  How full are our hospitals?" when planning a significant assault operation?

From a few months ago but provides some insight into what it's like for the combat medics...

‘I work, then I cry’: Exhausted medics near Bakhmut fight for every life

https://kyivindependent.com/i-work-then-i-cry-exhausted-medics-near-bakhmut-fight-for-every-life/

More recent, this one cover rehabilitation efforts...

"Not giving up": A Ukrainian veteran with three amputations defies the odds, supports others

https://hromadske.ua/en/posts/not-giving-up-a-ukrainian-veteran-with-three-amputations-defies-the-odds-supports-others

 

[FlemFire]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

No, it's far more important and therefore worth the added risk. 

 

All that can be managed. That's why we spent so much money on the technology and training to enforce a no-fly zone. If Russia lights up an allied a/c they would be toast. Yes, there is risk. But I think it's worth it to save Ukraine. I do respect your thoughts on this. Tough call. 

 

I would never risk myself or family getting incinerated on behalf of eastern Ukraine and every single person who has two brain cells to rub together thinks the same. Your bloodlust and suicidal tendencies exist only on paper.

[kimbosbread]

3 minutes ago, Khalerick said:

 

I would never risk myself or family getting incinerated on behalf of eastern Ukraine and every single person who has two brain cells to rub together thinks the same. Your bloodlust and suicidal tendencies exist only on paper.

I would. I'm less worried about Eastern Ukraine and more the South China Sea. That's why Ukraine is important.

[FlemFire]

15 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I would. I'm less worried about Eastern Ukraine and more the South China Sea. That's why Ukraine is important.

 

Newsflash: if there's a nuclear exchange nothing matters.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Tux said:

When we hear that Ukrainian troops are being trained by NATO forces, would I be right in thinking that the main value of that (apart from basic fieldcraft, it being free and in a safe location, etc.) probably comes from the ‘cultural’ side of what the Ukrainians are being taught?  By which I mean are troops and units that are trained to NATO standards potentially more flexible and able to rapidly integrate lessons learned than a force trained in the Soviet model would be (more emphasis on lower-level initiative rather than top-down micromanagement-according-to-doctrine)?

I could be getting this completely wrong but I have to admit I’ve been assuming the above is the case for some months now and that all the emphasis on training of mechanised forces in large-scale manoeuvres has been a bit of a red herring.  To my mind NATO training can be a war-winning contribution if it catalyses the absorption of the harsh lessons of war into general Ukrainian battlefield practise and doctrine.  Indeed I hope that’s precisely where the emphasis is being placed.

I’m tired and not as articulate as I’d like to be at the moment but does that make sense?

The primary challenge, as I understand it, with the UA is mobilizing a bunch of civilians and turning them into coherent fighting forces.  So we are really talking Company and below.  Basic stuff like weapons handling and drills.  Fieldcraft and hygiene.  Patrolling, offensive and defensive drills.  In short, “the basics”.  That is an enormous challenge, let alone more advanced stuff like crews for vehicles, specialist and weapons crews.  Above this is stuff like staff at formation level - we normally get people at 15-20 years in their careers before we teach them operational level staff stuff, obviously the UA does not have that time.  

The whole “bottom up initiative” culture is great in a professional force but much harder to manage in a group that were civies 20 mins ago.  In some ways the genius of the Soviet template is that it could churn out millions of troops all dancing to the same tune.  We always tout “initiative” and good ole “gumpshin” but in reality a bunch of inexperienced people doing their own thing under fire is in reality bad.  Military machines work very hard to beat uniformity into people to get them to fight as a unit…in the old days we called it “discipline”.

[paxromana]

Solovyov may have been arrested ... he has disappeared from his channel and replaced by some nobodynik who is claiming he is 'on vacation' according to Russian Media Monitor.

 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

I would. I'm less worried about Eastern Ukraine and more the South China Sea. That's why Ukraine is important.

Stock up on can openers