How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Impacts in Tokmak

 

[DesertFox]

21 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Do you think things were different if we were talking about M1s instead of Leo2s? Do you really think the US government would say "The Poles are perfectly able to service their M1s, we'll just give them our taxpayers' money instead of letting it flow back to US companies."?

These deals are always made in a way that supports domestic economy.

Well it is not like the poles are handling Leo2s for the first time. They are servicing them since 2002 within their own structures.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

A pessimistic post by Mashovets about the Zaporozhe offensive. The first one, AFAIK, which worries me.

Quote

A little sobering up wouldn't hurt.

To be honest, I don't know who "stepped on" or even "took fire control" there and where, but the situation on the LBS, especially in the Eastern Operational Zone, is very complicated and in recent days has acquired tendencies far from favoring the Ukrainian Defense Forces (UDF).

Why do I have this impression?

Well, because two things have become obvious to date:
Командование enemy forces continue active offensive actions in three directions at once, and on two of them they are succeeding.
Темпы and the scope of the offensive actions of the AFU in the southern operational zone, objectively, to put it mildly, are not outstanding, although they have contributed to the fact that they have also succeeded (albeit minimally) in all the areas where the AFU is advancing.

If we add it all up in a strategic sense, we realize that so far everything is going according to plan, but clearly not ours.

In practice (operational and tactical levels) it looks as follows:
The Bakhmut area, despite Ms. Malyar's bravura conclusions about "fire control of all entrances and exits", "semi-envelopment of the enemy" and so on - the harsh reality is a bit different from these bravura and loud statements.

The enemy, having pulled up to the northern flank quite substantial reserves in the form of the 331st Parachute Airborne Regiment (Pdp) and 217th Pdp from the 98th Airborne Division (VdD), successfully counterattacked our advanced units in the area of Dubovo-Vasilovka, Berkhovka and Yagodnoye, almost completely stopping them.

Moreover, to the south of the city even a lot of places "announced" the fall of the village. Klischievka also somehow failed ... In the defense line of the enemy's 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade, the enemy's fresh 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade conducted a number of counterattacks on the western outskirts of the village of Klischyivka and in the direction of the village of Andreevka, forcing the advanced AFU units in this direction to stop.

Even in the city itself, where, according to Ms. Malyar, the AFU controls all enemy movements by fire, the latter, incidentally, manages, despite this, to organize and conduct regular attacks in the direction of the village of Ivanivske.

In the Liman direction, too, "not all is well". In recent days, the enemy's 74th OMsbr, which he constantly reinforces with fresh units, has significantly expanded its penetration into our defense in the direction of Kreminna-Zarechnoye, mainly in the southern direction.

Thus the situation with the Serebryansky Forestry continues to deteriorate. In fact, in the area of Dibrova village and Shipilovka village (from the opposite bank of Seversky Donets) the enemy also does not stop its attacks.

If this continues, the AFU defense along the left bank of Seversky Donets will be "rolled up" by the enemy not only in the area of Serebryanka village and Belogorovka village (upper), to which, by the way, the enemy has already come close from the south and southeast, but all the way to Dronivka village.

The situation is even more "improved" by the enemy's success in the direction of Krasnopopovka - Nevskoye village, as well as in the Kupyansk direction near Novoselevskoye village, where the enemy's units of the 7th MS and 27th Omsbr are clearly trying to break through the road Kupyansk - Svatovo and are close enough to it.... After all, this in a certain way constrains the ability of the Ukrainian command to react properly to the events taking place to the south of this section, in the Limansk direction.... And as far as I understand, this is only the beginning.... at least, this is true for the direction both to Borovaya and to Kupyansk proper.

Where am I going with all this?
And to the fact that, yes, all these successes of the enemy are still exclusively tactical in nature and are calculated exclusively by a couple of kilometers, and in some cases by hundreds of meters.... But the question in connection with all this is different.

Przetłumaczono za pomocą DeepL (https://www.deepl.com/app/?utm_source=ios&utm_medium=app&utm_campaign=share-translation
 

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu

 

[Haiduk]

Soldiers of 47th brigade check conditions of damaged and abandoned equipmnet in the start point of offensive. Now this is relatively safe rear. Russian TG is angry, why nobody cares to strike again at this immobilized vehicles in order to the enemy can't repair anything. 

According to Orix UKR already lost 32 M2A2 (15 of them destroyed completely) and 8 Leo2 (3 destroyed)

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Moreover, to the south of the city even a lot of places "announced" the fall of the village. Klischievka also somehow failed ... In the defense line of the enemy's 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade, the enemy's fresh 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade conducted a number of counterattacks on the western outskirts of the village of Klischyivka and in the direction of the village of Andreevka, forcing the advanced AFU units in this direction to stop.

Mashovets writes, having a picture of 2-3 days ago. Situation is enough dynamic.

Here is a statement of press-service of 3rd assault brigade for today: https://t.me/ab3army/2874

3rd assault brigade knoked out the unit of Russian 83rd air-assault brigade near Bakhmut. Our 2nd assault battalion liberated about 1 km of territory, destroying Russian platoon, one tank, and capturing 10 soldiers. Company strongpoing is captured

I don't know either he wrote about Russian counter-attack near Berkhivka like about current development or that one, happened about week ago. Because yesterday there was issued a video, how Russian artillery fires on Berkhivka village, though UKR TGs told there are only small forward groups of UKR troops in the village. 

Most bad situation, obviously on Kreminna direction. The video issued today (but unknown when in was filmed) shows UKR MLRS shells Russians in northern part of Tors'ke village.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Most bad situation, obviously on Kreminna direction. Today's video shows UKR MLRS shells Russians in northern part of Tors'ke village.

Hopefully they won't like DPICM falling down on them.

[Butschi]

28 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Well it is not like the poles are handling Leo2s for the first time. They are servicing them since 2002 within their own structures.

Oh come on, you know perfectly well that even if Poland were servicing M1s since 2002 the US government would never pay for it if not at a large part of the money went back to the US. And don't think for a moment that the Poles would be handling this differently if roles were reversed.

Germany gave tanks to Ukraine. Those tanks had to be either refurbished (paid for by Germany) or taken from the Bundeswehr (replacement being paid for by Germany). Now Germany pais for keeping those tanks in the fight. It's better to do that in Poland so Poland gets its share. The rest goes to Germany. Perfectly normal. I don't see the drama here.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

OK, some more detailed information re this has surfaced via Wolski, who seems well connected in the industry and politically neutral. Obviously he presents the Polish perspective.

What he describes looks like the negotiations not going forward for commercial reasons. The Poles preferred to do the repairs at one of the existing plants within the current structure of PGZ and its subsidiaries. The Germans wanted to set up a joint venture with operational control over some crucial business areas belonging  to the Germans (possibly due to the same issues about who controls the know how which surfaced during PZH 2000 servicing negotiations), also they wanted to use a location which was inconvenient from the perspective of PGZ's plans to work on K2. At this stage it looks like neither company wants to close the deal, but to shift the blame for unsuccessful negotiations to the other. So the Poles put forward a deliberately unattractive price quote, and the Germans responded with the theory about Polish political motives.

Thanks for the info. Yeah, that makes some more sense, I think.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Well it is not like the poles are handling Leo2s for the first time. They are servicing them since 2002 within their own structures.

Poland has the A4s and won't buy any in the future. Ukraine has (also) the A6, so I guess RM wouldn't like to share more trade secrets with Poland than necessary. Same story as with the PzH.

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Oh come on, you know perfectly well that even if Poland were servicing M1s since 2002 the US government would never pay for it if not at a large part of the money went back to the US. And don't think for a moment that the Poles would be handling this differently if roles were reversed.

Germany gave tanks to Ukraine. Those tanks had to be either refurbished (paid for by Germany) or taken from the Bundeswehr (replacement being paid for by Germany). Now Germany pais for keeping those tanks in the fight. It's better to do that in Poland so Poland gets its share. The rest goes to Germany. Perfectly normal. I don't see the drama here.

Yeah yeah, but all this fuss for the 18 2A6 Germany gave? The rest of the 2A4/2A5/Strv122 are/were donated by other countries. As mentioned, all of those can perfectly well be serviced at the existing facilities by the poles. If I were PGZ I wouldnt be wanting to give the germans an "Extrawurst" for nothing, why should I?

[danfrodo]

I've started watching this channel.  Nice detail on local battles.

 

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

Poland has the A4s and won't buy any in the future. Ukraine has (also) the A6, so I guess RM wouldn't like to share more trade secrets with Poland than necessary. Same story as with the PzH.

Actually RM is part of the consortium building the Leo2PL, so I guess there are not that much "trade secrets".

[Maciej Zwolinski]

13 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

eah yeah, but all this fuss for the 18 2A6 Germany gave? The rest of the 2A4/2A5/Strv122 are/were donated by other countries. As mentioned, all of those can perfectly well be serviced at the existing facilities by the poles. If I were PGZ I wouldnt be wanting to give the germans an "Extrawurst" for nothing, why should I?

If PGZ gets the know how for Leo 2 A6 it theoretically could use it to develop products or services competitive to KMW. On the other hand, as you correctly observed, PGZ wants to grow its own know how base, and not only provide a low value added service effectively like lease of manufacturing hall with workers, which premises and men it would otherwise use for the Polish army programmes which are much bigger and more prospective. So there indeed seems to be little commercial incentive for both parties to go through with this.  A typical story illustrating why joint ventures rarely work.

[Carolus]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

More Storm Shadows / SCALP EG from France

SCALP NAVAL with 1400km range and a launch block straight from a French wharf and jury rigged onto a truck, and permission for Russian territory targeting...

Hey sorry, one can dream, okay? 

[kevinkin]

Zelensky is not happy:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4090499-zelensky-says-uncertainty-over-ukraines-nato-membership/

I don't blame him. But he has to know a) kinetic fighting needs to end b) then Ukraine enters NATO c) there will be an uneasy peace for a long time. This is the west's endgame. All the talk about reclaiming 100% of Ukraine is slipping through their fingers. The UA will not commit their western brigades until assurances from the west (e.g. airpower) are in place. Zelensky will not play his ace in the hole until certain battlefield conditions are met. Those conditions are not under his complete control. Without those conditions, the UA can't impose its will on the RA. Meanwhile sustained offensive pressure could cause some form of collapse. But that is more an indication of Russian weakness than western strength. Since negotiating with Putin is nearly impossible, NATO has to step up now. Anything Russian on Ukrainian soil should be considered hostile by NATO and then proceed per their doctrine. But, that's not the west's endgame - so around and around we go. Where the war stops nobody knows. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by kevinkin

[Butschi]

29 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah yeah, but all this fuss for the 18 2A6 Germany gave? The rest of the 2A4/2A5/Strv122 are/were donated by other countries. As mentioned, all of those can perfectly well be serviced at the existing facilities by the poles. If I were PGZ I wouldnt be wanting to give the germans an "Extrawurst" for nothing, why should I?

Seriously, you are being quite hypocritical here. Noone wants less profit when he can get more. Neither the Germans nor the Poles. So where do you see the Extrawurst? Wouldn't "Germany pays and Poland gets all the benefits" be far more of an Extrawurst? If Poland was paying or PGZ wasn't charging money and instead was doing it as a charity then I'd agree. But it's business on both sides and so one-sided deals won't work.

Besides, I don't think it is only about Leo2s. Leo1s will need service, too, right?

[Butschi]

9 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Zelensky is not happy:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4090499-zelensky-says-uncertainty-over-ukraines-nato-membership/

I don't blame him. But he has to know a) kinetic fighting needs to end b) then Ukraine enters NATO c) there will be an uneasy peace for a long time. This is the west's endgame. All the talk about reclaiming 100% of Ukraine is slipping through their fingers. The UA will not commit their western brigades until assurances from the west (e.g. airpower) are in place. Zelensky will not play his ace in the hole until certain battlefield conditions are met. Those conditions are not under his complete control. Without those conditions, the UA can't impose its will on the RA. Meanwhile sustained offensive pressure could cause some form of collapse. But that is more an indication of Russian weakness then western strength. Since negotiating with Putin is nearly impossible, NATO has to step up now. Anything Russian on Ukrainian soil should be considered hostile by NATO and proceed per their doctrine. But, that's not the west's endgame - so around and around we go. Where the war stops nobody knows. 

I get the frustration, of course he wanted to get a more positive answer. Can't blame him either. But as someone commented on TV: Sadly, part of the frustration is self induced because Zelensky clearly overplayed his hand this time and expected and/or promised too much. As Stoltenberg said in his last answer at the press conference, there is no NATO membership while Ukraine is still at war. And since noone can tell how long the war is going to last there can be no realistic date for a membership. Even the Latvian prime minister said this was the only realistic answer.

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

So where do you see the Extrawurst?

I guess you overread the part where Maciej Zwolinski described the alleged "need" for a new hub other than the existing structures?

Quote

also they wanted to use a location which was inconvenient from the perspective of PGZ's plans to work on K2. 

That is an investment in infrastructure which makes zero sense for the poles, because in the future they only have to care about their own Leo2PL, K2 and M1s. Why should they invest here without an economic incentive? And with this additional invest in infrastructure, why should they offer service for the same price as RM or KMW offers from within their own structures? Makes zero sense economically and strategically.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I guess you overread the part where Maciej Zwolinski described the alleged "need" for a new hub other than the existing structures?

To be precise, the way I read it the issue was not a greenfield investment for the new hub, but taking over an existing facility and reserving it for Leopard work, while PZG wanted to use that location also for the work on Abrams and K2. So it did not necessarily require so much of capital expenditure upfront, but possibly in the future, when the Abrams and K2 faciilities would have to be set up somehow. Or PZG would not be able to take all the Abrams and K2 jobs it would like, taking a hit on the revenue side. Anyway, some future cost was likely.

[DesertFox]

24 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

To be precise, the way I read it the issue was not a greenfield investment for the new hub, but taking over an existing facility and reserving it for Leopard work, while PZG wanted to use that location also for the work on Abrams and K2. So it did not necessarily require so much of capital expenditure upfront, but possibly in the future, when the Abrams and K2 faciilities would have to be set up somehow. Or PZG would not be able to take all the Abrams and K2 jobs it would like, taking a hit on the revenue side. Anyway, some future cost was likely.

Well it always is about revenue. In this case, obviously, there is not much economic incentive for invest or joint-venture for the poles. Maybe we will see a totally different solution in the future and Ukraine will use the new RM plant they already are building with Ukroboronprom [1], [2].

[1] Marco Seliger: Rheinmetall will künftig Kampfpanzer in der Ukraine bauen. In: NZZ Neue Zürcher Zeitung. 12. Mai 2023, abgerufen am 25. Mai 2023.

[2] Rheinmetall will build and repair tanks in Ukraine, says CEO | CNN Business

Edited July 11, 2023 by DesertFox

[cesmonkey]

Now I realize this is the same podcast that @The_MonkeyKing summarized on Friday.

Edited July 11, 2023 by cesmonkey

[FancyCat]

Regarding NATO, obviously no membership yet or even concretely, but the next best thing is more weapons. Macron has announced France is providing long range missiles. If the EU could get their idiocy regarding ammo production resolved, that would be great. More tanks, more IFVs, more artillery, is a fine apology gift for no NATO membership.  

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Zelensky is not happy:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4090499-zelensky-says-uncertainty-over-ukraines-nato-membership/

I don't blame him. But he has to know a) kinetic fighting needs to end b) then Ukraine enters NATO c) there will be an uneasy peace for a long time. This is the west's endgame. All the talk about reclaiming 100% of Ukraine is slipping through their fingers. The UA will not commit their western brigades until assurances from the west (e.g. airpower) are in place. Zelensky will not play his ace in the hole until certain battlefield conditions are met. Those conditions are not under his complete control. Without those conditions, the UA can't impose its will on the RA. Meanwhile sustained offensive pressure could cause some form of collapse. But that is more an indication of Russian weakness than western strength. Since negotiating with Putin is nearly impossible, NATO has to step up now. Anything Russian on Ukrainian soil should be considered hostile by NATO and then proceed per their doctrine. But, that's not the west's endgame - so around and around we go. Where the war stops nobody knows. 

Well, pretty obvious they cant invite or offer him membership until the hostilities haven´t ended. Anyways pretty good signals and one futher step ahead for Ukraine today:

Vilnius summit brings Ukraine closer to NATO, but direct invitation withheld (kyivindependent.com)

[dan/california]

Would this qualify as chemical warfare?

[DesertFox]

If true, a good signal for UAF, specifically in the Tokmak axis.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1678761664488042496?s=20

Gerasimov removed the commander of the 58th army (Orikhiv area), Major General Popov, because he threaten to raise the issue of troops rotation in his area of command directly with Putin. He was sent directly to the frontlines according to this report. His troops are in the area of the 47th Ukrainian brigade, which operates Bradley IFV and Leopard tanks. The Russians are tired, they will break, it is a matter of time.