How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, for sure Turkey isn't doing this for the fun of it.  And saying Turkey would welcome Ukraine into NATO is also not being done without a big reason.  That's two major things out of Turkey in as many days.  What this means, I don't know, but it certainly means something or somethings.

I think WarGonzo's speculation is as good as any right now.  "Russia, you think you can change deals whenever you want?  Well, two can play that game".

As for the Ukraine/NATO comment, that could be something entirely different or it could be related.  Turkey is not my area of expertise so I can't speculate beyond that.

Steve

Primarily it means that Erdogan doesn’t think Russian objections are going to matter much. Put another way, Erdogan expects Russia to lose and be in no position to punish him for either move. It also means that he thinks Ukraine is likelier a more important partner in the medium term than Russia will be. 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

did she mention, they weren't done yet?  Hurry up and leave while ya still have a bridge!

Russia brings landing ship to help with Crimean Bridge congestion (yahoo.com)

[Haiduk]

Some footage of 59th mot.inf.brigade

Reportedly 2-3 days ago they advanced forward between Pervomaiske, Nevelske and Pisky seizing six Russian positions

HMMWV assault of Russian position

Russian tank approached to position of 59th brigade and got some AT projectille to right side

https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1677733472587116545

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

One has to remember that military systems are highly redundant and over-engineered (yes, even Russian ones).  So if the UA is effectively eroding the RA system of defence we are going to be seeing different indicators of this. Also we need to be watching for stuff we are not seeing but should be.  So stuff like:

- Russian logistics and artillery losses that lead to observable shortfalls

- Lack or shortfalls in RA c-moves.  Or RA c-moves that look like scrambles or dyke plugging (these lateral shift cause enormous disruptions)

- continued denial and loss of AirPower assets.

- RA loss of high profile and high value systems - EW, ISR and Engr

- Indicators that RA morale is flagging - desertions and surrenders.

- shortfalls in the RA medical support system

All this (and more) need to add up over time in order for the RA system to buckle.  Once it fails though it has to fall into a lower energy state in order to sustain and avoid a cascade failure.  We normally call these fall-back positions.  

Corrosive warfare is not just attrition warfare.  Attrition warfare is a grinding of the front end of a system until exhaustion sets in.  Corrosive warfare needs ISR and precision to hit the entire operational system at key nodes of capability - you are essentially de-constructing their operational system.  You need to do this at a rate that those nodes cannot be re-built or shifted.  It takes time do this and compared to rapid manoeuvre and annihilation seems like it may be going nowhere.  However, compared to real attrition warfare which can take years it appears it may happen much faster in the contemporary context. (ie months)

Well here is a nifty video of two Russian Uragan 9P140 MLRS going boom. For the record a cope cage doesn't make much difference to a GMLRS, none actually.

I would argue that the the Russian evac/medical system has always been so bad that deterioration would be hard to notice.

[G.I. Joe]

3 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Thank God McKenzie King was made of sterner stuff than Justin.

Mulroney and Chrétien were made of sterner stuff than Justin...

[Haiduk]

Russian video, with UKR column of two tanks and several IMVs blows up by minefield allegedly near Novodarivka (V.Novosilka salient). Likely the video for 4th of June - this was a first day of offensive and this village was liberated in the same day (officilaly claimed on 12th of June)

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1677662403083788288

Edited July 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

Quote

The Stalwart Ally: Türkiye’s Arms Deliveries To #Ukraine

Updated with: - 155mm T-155 Fırtına Self-Propelled Guns [To be delivered]

Full list: https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/11/the-stalwart-ally-turkiyes-arms.html

The Fırtına is a license-produced version of the South Korean K9 Thunder SPG. The T-115s were apparently sold to Ukraine, albeit at a huge discount.

 

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by FancyCat

[danfrodo]

29 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Any idea how many?  UKR increasing tubes while RU going downward -- oh, wait, they have T55 guns on the way! 

[Haiduk]

Some humor about Finnish Leo2 )

[Haiduk]

Troops of 15th "Kara-Dag" operative brigade of National Guard (one of Offensive Guard brigades) assault enemy trenches probably in Bilohirya - Novopokrovka area on Zaporizhzhia front. Last days there were intensive clashes between UKR and Russian troops of 38th MBR, which tried to strike at flank left flank of UKR Robotyne groupment and even could advance on different sections from 700 m to 1,5 km. Novopokrovka is still contested.

This guy likley from 15th NGU brigade

Hold fists and pray for our lads of NGU near Orikhiv. It's very diffiuclt for them just now from early morning - for the sake of that result, which everybody expect. 

Just one moment of assault. These ones will be more hundreds-southands... 

According to this map (if it's correct), left flank of Robotyme groupment now secured by NGU troops: 15th "Kara-Dag" operative brigade, 3rd "Spartan" operative brigade (both are from Offensive Guard) and 11th brigade NGU (this is public order security brigade)

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Russian telegram accounts mention it. As always lets wait if others corroborate it.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1677767780140036096?s=20

 

Russian sources claim that the Armed Forces broke through the Russian defenses between the settlements of Robotyne and Verbove (Zaporozhzhia) This area is held (most likely held ) by the "71st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment". The depth of the breakthrough is currently difficult to estimate. I was not able to verify the information. The last information I had was an attempt by Ukrainians to bypass Robotyne from the East and West side.

 

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Russian sources claim that the Armed Forces broke through the Russian defenses between the settlements of Robotyne and Verbove

Behind Verbove it's already main defense line. In this place it approaches close to the "skirmish line" 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/08/opinion/ukraine-war-amputees.html

That’s where I think Vladimir Putin miscalculated when he invaded Ukraine last year: He underappreciated Ukrainian grit and resilience. I suspect some Americans make the same mistake. Month after month, Ukrainians have lost buildings, heat, electricity, lives — yet they are ready to keep sacrificing, and there is a society-wide reverence for those who have given so much.

 

Guys going back to the front with prosthetic limbs, just indescribable determination.

[DesertFox]

And another one. Velyka Novosilka axis. Caution until corroborated. If true we will know quick next morning in about 8 hours.

 

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1677769292576694273?s=20

[DesertFox]

LOL!

 

[dan/california]

Edit: He used a ton of emojis and symbols, I can't get it to post as plain text in any legible way, sorry.

Edited July 8, 2023 by dan/california

[buena]

Interview with Caesar, the commander of the Freedom of Russia Legion.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/08/anti-putin-forces-plan-fresh-attacks-inside-russia

interesting version on the P affair, which sounds quite plausible to me:

"He said the Wagner mercenary leader had originally intended to capture and remove Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and commander in chief, Valery Gerasimov, last month, when he began an armed uprising.

The FSB learned of Prigozhin’s intention and moved the pair from Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s southern district military command. After taking over the southern city without meeting resistance, Prigozhin “improvised” and sent an armoured column towards Moscow, Caesar said.

Caesar speculated that Prigozhin had so far escaped punishment after turning his armoured column back because he held kompromat or compromising material on Putin. “I don’t respect Prigozhin. He and Putin have the same values. Prigozhin is more charismatic and appeals to ultra-patriots who want to fight to the end. They think harsher methods will bring them victory. It’s not realistic.”

Another interesting point about the state of the army:

Sitting in a Kyiv cafe, he predicted the Putin regime would collapse by the end of 2024. It was now “cracking and unstable”. He said there was unhappiness within the Russian military, driven by the fact that many “conscienceless” soldiers from the provinces who joined up because they were broke had not been paid. “There’s a huge problem with money,” he said.

And finally, the very definition of a bully:

Caesar was predictably scathing about Putin, whom he described as a small and cowardly “criminal boy”, who tried to terrorise his adversaries into submission, but retreated whenever he was confronted by force.

[FancyCat]

For example, even Serbia, Russian ally has been accused of supplying weapons to Ukraine via 3rd parties. 

Quote

An acknowledgement (from a big Z-channel) of something that I think

@miyhnea and @nik0p0l5

have been writing about, that it is Eastern Europe that is running its military plants and factories at full speed while most people still watch other countries (and don't see much):

 

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by FancyCat

[cesmonkey]

Russian view of the fight near Rabotino:

https://t.me/RVvoenkor/48939
 

Quote

The offensive at Orekhov, the enemy was again able to break into our trenches on the front line of the Zaporozhye Front
All night the enemy fired and tried to attack with equipment, to no avail.
In the morning, the infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, under the cover of artillery and tank fire, attacked our positions in the fields northeast of the settlement. Rabotino at the junction of the defense regiments.
The assault group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed on the Bradley and were able to break into the forward trenches of 70 SMEs on foot .
The enemy was covered by fire from howitzers and tanks, some of them were hit by our artillery.
Then for several hours there was a heavy downpour with a thunderstorm and the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not send their reinforcements to increase the pressure.
Now the battles for the trenches continue, ours are being destroyed and the suicide bombers who have settled there, cut off from their own, are being driven out. Reconnaissance, infantry, tankmen and artillery work.
/Shots with rain from this area from D. Rogozin/

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian video, with UKR column of two tanks and several IMVs blows up by minefield allegedly near Novodarivka (V.Novosilka salient). Likely the video for 4th of June - this was a first day of offensive and this village was liberated in the same day (officilaly claimed on 12th of June)

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1677662403083788288

I really don't understand why drivers would wander off the main path after seeing that even that wasn't safe.  Especially because they weren't under fire at the time.

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

And another one. Velyka Novosilka axis. Caution until corroborated. If true we will know quick next morning in about 8 hours.

 

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1677769292576694273?s=20

Картина Маслом is not enough reliable source. He just interpretes different OSINTers and Mashovets in very optimistic manner and write "total victory day-by-day" posts. 

His post was based on UKR TG message about pushing of UKR troops in Hrusheva Balka (terrain name) between Pryyutne and Staromajorsk. But this TG post didn't say about significant breakthrough and whole regiment crumbling. Though, yes, 394th is already heavy battered for the month of fighting.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Edit: He used a ton of emojis and symbols, I can't get it to post as plain text in any legible way, sorry.

I think it's OK?  People seem to be able to see the first post of a Tweet thread.  Those without Twitter accounts, is this correct?

Steve

[Flibby]

5 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Cluster munitions are terrible.  And UKR needs them.  These are contradictions and are both true.  What else can ya say?  RU is causing way more deaths every week than errant cluster munitions will over the entire future.  And like has been pointed out here already, RU is sowing the entire front, hundreds of kms, w thousands and thousands of mines yet not a peep from anyone.

Meanwhile, I suspect NATO & UKR are doing everything they jcan to find ways to overcome mines.  HOpefully there's a lot of gear being sent that we're not hearing about.

I'm not sure I agree but it's a finely balanced point. 

Chemical agents are terrible but we're not about to start sending those to Ukraine.

We need to keep as much of the moral high ground as possible, and moreover keep the Allied nations together. Rightly or wrongly this has the potential to be to tip of a wedge being driven between those allies.

If it's genuinely such a desperate situation that cluster weapons are required, the Rus must be putting up a better fight than the evidence I have suggests.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Flibby said:

If it's genuinely such a desperate situation that cluster weapons are required, the Rus must be putting up a better fight than the evidence I have suggests.

I think the far larger problem is that it has taken a year longer than it should have to even start ramping up munitions production. They still haven't even signed a quarter of the contracts they actually should have, much less poured concrete and ordered machines.

[Flibby]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think the far larger problem is that it has taken a year longer than it should have to even start ramping up munitions production. They still haven't even signed a quarter of the contracts they actually should have, much less poured concrete and ordered machines.

Absolutely and the vast array of calibers required isn't going to help. 

I know that our plant in Tyneside making 105 and 155 rounds has been on overtime for months but it's small fry when you look at consumption.