How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

 AFU removing false advertising.

[kimbosbread]

36 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is exactly the plan from what we have seen so far.  A death by inches so that Russia can come to terms with it.  All war is negotiation and that also means the players must negotiate with themselves.  The fact that Ukrainians have to die to make this happen is something we had better not forget when it comes to guaranteeing their security and rebuilding their nation once this war is over.  We are killing Russia softly while Ukraine pays the bill and we owe them a lot for it.

I’d be happier if the plan included better responses to WMD-equivalent events like blowing up major dams, or nuclear power plants. There doesn’t seem to be a realization that every time a path to deescalation is offered, Russia always chooses to escalate.

47 minutes ago, sburke said:

Not able to access much at the moment (cause I am busy drinking and eating my way through Barcelona!j but how much could this position be used to leverage the RA out of any of its defensive positions? And no I don’t think the RA figured this all out as I don’t credit the RA with much of a strategic vision these days. 

I enjoyed Can Boneta and Can Josep when I was there in the fall, but a reservation would be wise. If you take the gondola or walk up Montjuic, the bar above the public pool is cool too.

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Swarms need to be made out of fairly small and light drones for cost reasons, which means they can't fly in certain conditions (heavy rains, powerful winds, too cold, too hot, etc.).  The enemy would know this and therefore time attacks to happen when the risk from swarms is lowest.

Who says a swarm needs to consist exclusively of flying drones? It could be ones with legs, wheels, swimming affordances, etc. and a combination of all of them. Might include some larger ones for heavier targets, maybe some laser link ones for directional comms.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Who says a swarm needs to consist exclusively of flying drones? It could be ones with legs, wheels, swimming affordances, etc. and a combination of all of them. Might include some larger ones for heavier targets, maybe some laser link ones for directional comms.

Same applies to ground based.  Wanna have a drone mine pick itself up and move it in 1.5m of snow?  How about during mud season while it's raining?  What happens to all those electronics if someone sets fire to the field?  All those little joints are going to complain at -15c if they aren't pretty robust.  And yes, wind affects things on the ground as well as the air.

Don't get me wrong, I am thinking swarms will be a big problem.  I just don't see how it is economically feasible to build all condition drones, air or ground, to substitute for dumb mines.

Steve

[Homo_Ferricus]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

Could be something, could be nothing...

 

That's interesting, the President typically flies in one of these...

edit: flight landed about 4 hours ago. I'm intrigued.

edit2: This is apparently a flight picking up Russian diplomats in DC "Who are due to return after a 3-year stay."

https://tass.com/politics/1639381

Edited June 27, 2023 by Homo_Ferricus

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

Could be something, could be nothing...

 

Diplomatic rotation at the Russian Embassy in DC. It happens fairly routinely.

[dan/california]

All I can say is that the west needs to increase munitions production by 20X, and stack missiles on Taiwan until the island sinks a foot or two. It is a lousy alternative, well yes, but all the others are worse.

[Huba]

37 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I enjoyed Can Boneta and Can Josep when I was there in the fall, but a reservation would be wise. If you take the gondola or walk up Montjuic, the bar above the public pool is cool too.

Depending on who's accompanying you, I really recommend a quick train trip to Figueres where, on top of enjoying the train ride itself,  cultured people can visit an (reportedly) amazing Salvador Dali museum, and less cultured ones can see this amazing fortress:

Edited June 27, 2023 by Huba

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Probably the better option for Ukraine as well. Likely the first target of a Russian nuke would be Kiev frankly. 

Exactly. Before you articulate some badass US or NATO flex you should be sure that Ukraine isn't going to take it on the chin if it gets out of hand. And yes, there are far worse things than a ground out Ukrainian victory.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

NYT article on Prig and their own perspective.  Not sure if paywalled

one area of interest is other bits of Prig’s financial empire that were being undermined  specifically his catering business to the Russian army  

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/world/europe/prigozhin-wagner-russia-putin.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

 

This is a good example of the 1/2 reporting we've seen on what happened.  Everything that article is true, as far as we can tell, but it's incomplete.  We are being asked to accept that Prig was smart and sly enough to navigate the halls of power within Russia for decades, assemble arguably some of Russia's most effective military minds (not saying they're great, just that they aren't total crap), oversaw massive losses for little gain, somehow managed to plot all of this without the FSB noticing OR reporting it, seized the most valuable patch of ground in all of Russia without a shot fired, had no meaningful opposition on his march to Moscow then... what... realized he made a terrible mistake and took the first deal offered to him instead of holding out for something better?

I simply don't understand why people aren't at least asking some pointed questions, especially about the FSB's role in this.

You guys know I don't often give Russians involved in this war much credit for intelligence.  But Prig should have known exactly what he was getting into when he even STARTED to talk to his guys about mutinying.  Prig could not have gotten to where he was by being stupid and lucky.  Yet the prevailing story is that he is as dumb as he looks.

Steve

[dan/california]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Same applies to ground based.  Wanna have a drone mine pick itself up and move it in 1.5m of snow?  How about during mud season while it's raining?  What happens to all those electronics if someone sets fire to the field?  All those little joints are going to complain at -15c if they aren't pretty robust.  And yes, wind affects things on the ground as well as the air.

Don't get me wrong, I am thinking swarms will be a big problem.  I just don't see how it is economically feasible to build all condition drones, air or ground, to substitute for dumb mines.

Steve

The thing about mines that can move themselves around is that you only need a few percent of them in a large field of dumb mines to complicate things a lot. The_Capt brought that up pages ago, and at least in Ukraine there is quite a bit of evidence that REALLY bad weather stops most of the fighting, too. Furthermore Ukraine apparently demonstrated in the last day or two that dumb mines delivered by smart drones have a charm all of their own.

Edited June 27, 2023 by dan/california

[poesel]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

 I would be happier if the powers that be actually seemed like they had a plan themselves for when Ukraine have completed the liberation of their own country . Admittance to  NATO/ the EU still only seems to be something being talked about rather than actually acted on 

Getting into the EU is quite a convoluted process, especially for a country as big as Ukraine. Integrating Mexico into the US would be a similar exercise.
I would not bet on anything less than 10 years in the future.

15 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

edit2: This is apparently a flight picking up Russian diplomats in DC "Who are due to return after a 3-year stay."

https://tass.com/politics/1639381

 

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Diplomatic rotation at the Russian Embassy in DC. It happens fairly routinely.

Ah, too bad.

I guess these diplomats will be oh so happy to be back in the USSR, er, Russia.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a good example of the 1/2 reporting we've seen on what happened.  Everything that article is true, as far as we can tell, but it's incomplete.  We are being asked to accept that Prig was smart and sly enough to navigate the halls of power within Russia for decades, assemble arguably some of Russia's most effective military minds (not saying they're great, just that they aren't total crap), oversaw massive losses for little gain, somehow managed to plot all of this without the FSB noticing OR reporting it, seized the most valuable patch of ground in all of Russia without a shot fired, had no meaningful opposition on his march to Moscow then... what... realized he made a terrible mistake and took the first deal offered to him instead of holding out for something better?

I simply don't understand why people aren't at least asking some pointed questions, especially about the FSB's role in this.

You guys know I don't often give Russians involved in this war much credit for intelligence.  But Prig should have known exactly what he was getting into when he even STARTED to talk to his guys about mutinying.  Prig could not have gotten to where he was by being stupid and lucky.  Yet the prevailing story is that he is as dumb as he looks.

Steve

This. 

Pre-war, the assumption was always that the Russians were master strategists and everything was done with purpose, acuity and effectiveness. Post-blundering-invasion, the assumption now has become that they are all crude banditti operating within a B movie version of the Godfather. Both versions of the myth badly miss. The best way to look at it is as you've done above.  

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Exactly. Before you articulate some badass US or NATO flex you should be sure that Ukraine isn't going to take it on the chin if it gets out of hand. And yes, there are far worse things than a ground out Ukrainian victory.

Yup.  And fat chance of support for NATO lasting once the nukes start flying because self interests will kick in.  It's hard enough to rebuild a country with a big glowing ruin of a capital, but even harder when there's nobody interested in helping.

We've cased things out here many times before.  The best way for this war to end is for Russia to exhaust itself, politically as well as militarily and economically, to the point where Putin isn't just afraid another mobilization will topple him but that continuing the war will.  We're not that far away from that happening, I think, provided the counter offensive goes well this year.

Under this scenario, Putin puts out some BS cover story, withdraws forces to an extent Ukraine can temporarily accept, the war goes cold, support for Russia stays even colder.  In a few years Putin might be out of office, hopefully because he is convinced not to run next year (there are many scenarios that could produce that result), and the country has a new leader that tries to clean up Putin's mess.  It won't likely work, which means life in Russia will continue to suck.

Regions will then bark at the Kremlin instead of whimpering.  Best case is a weakened Kremlin agrees to restore local control to the regions, perhaps more than they had 20 years ago.  Russia stays together, but the centralized stealing of resources needed for a threatening military and foreign policy is fatally compromised.  Medium case is the regions become autonomous similar to 1991 model, nukes get handed over to Russia or paid to be decommissioned by the West.  Worst case is there's a bloody breakup and nukes become pawns.

Note that while all of this is going on, Russia's neighbors will not be under military threat because Russia can not rebuild it's military capacity without rebuilding its economy first.

Also while this is happening Ukraine will likely fall under the protection of NATO in some form.  Even if Russia defies the odds and rebuilds its military, NATO protection assures Ukraine that it will not be attacked.

Something like that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The thing about mines that can move themselves around is that you only need a few percent of them in a large field of dumb mines to complicate things a lot. The_Capt brought that up pages ago, and at least in Ukraine there is quite a bit of evidence that REALLY bad weather stops most of the fighting, too. Furthermore Ukraine apparently demonstrated in the last day or two that dumb mines delivered by smart drones have a charm all of their own.

Yeah, but the conditions I described would affect all the mines equally.  Therefore, at least some of the mines would have to be built to Terminator Standards.  Very costly, though possibly doable for specific sectors of the front. 

All systems have their limitations.  Drone mines are no exception.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This. 

Pre-war, the assumption was always that the Russians were master strategists and everything was done with purpose, acuity and effectiveness. Post-blundering-invasion, the assumption now has become that they are all crude banditti operating within a B movie version of the Godfather. Both versions of the myth badly miss. The best way to look at it is as you've done above.  

It would be very ironic if it turned out that the most impressive military action Russia conducted this entire war was the result of a lapse in good judgement.

Steve

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It would be very ironic if it turned out that the most impressive military action Russia conducted this entire war was the result of a lapse in good judgement.

Steve

My jokey take to folks is "If you live in the grey zone long enough, the grey zone lives in you" but I do think that's basically what happened here. Putin trained the security services of the state to be both crafty, servile and financially corrupt. He trained them to conduct policy through cooption, indirection and to always insulate the core actors from the cutting edge of any hostile policy. What happened with Wagner and Prigozhin is the apotheosis of that program. All that really happened in a sense is that Putin broke the rules himself by exiting the methods of grey war to make conventional war on Ukraine and turned out to be quite bad at it. This created a conflict at the core of the organs of state power (both formal and informal) between his authority and the violence based legitimacy that authority must be seen to be preeminent in.  

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

 I would be happier if the powers that be actually seemed like they had a plan themselves for when Ukraine have completed the liberation of their own country . Admittance to  NATO/ the EU still only seems to be something being talked about rather than actually acted on  .  If the Russians actually withdraw back to borders pre-Feb 2022  - what about Donetsk and Luhansk - Do they remain  at their 2014 borders ? . Who's to say UA pushes the Russians out and they just don't start again in an another year ? What does Victory actually look like - apart from not actually starting the 3rd world war off as a result ?

It is one of the great shortfalls within the west - articulation of strategic ends.  I think when Ukraine wins or at least the final lines are drawn a true test of western unity will occur.  In my opinion as a min:

- Russian conventional forces must be pushed back out of Ukraine.  Russia needs to hold its sh#t together however it can post-war and we have to be ready to shape that if required.

- where the final lines are actually drawn should be an internal matter for Ukraine to sort out; however, a democratic process must be employed and some international support/oversight will likely be required.

- Russia must agree to regime change, war crimes prosecution and reparations before normalization with the west can occur.  This may not happen for a very long time given political realities in Russia, so buckle in we are likely in for a long haul.

- Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed.  Not some squishy Russian promises or weasely UN type of thing.  We are talking NATO for formal collective defence binding treaties.

- Ukraine must be rebuilt, they did the bleeding to blunt (and maybe break) Russia, western reconstruction in that country must be historic. Rebuilding also means economic agreements and long term sustainability.

- Russia must be 1) contained through strong military, diplomatic and economic deterrence, and 2) made more China’s problem than ours (so should North Korea for that matter. China wants to be a big boy, it needs to take responsibility and accountability for its power pole (lord knows the US has been wearing theirs for decades).

- The West needs to recognize the world that we are in, not the one we want.  Stop in-fighting and petty bickering, and defend the bloody international order like we mean it.  

Will we get all of these?  Seriously doubt it.  Should we be shooting for them, yes.

 

[strac_sap]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/27/europe/lukashenko-wagner-rebellion-negotiations-putin-intl/index.html

What would Putin have used to crush Wagner "like a bug?" Seemed like only rear echelon and security forces anywhere around, and they seemed reluctant to engage. And Wagner seemed to have combined armed assets that worked, including anti air.

[dan/california]

Just now, strac_sap said:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/27/europe/lukashenko-wagner-rebellion-negotiations-putin-intl/index.html

What would Putin have used to crush Wagner "like a bug?" Seemed like only rear echelon and security forces anywhere around, and they seemed reluctant to engage. And Wagner seemed to have combined armed assets that worked, including anti air.

I will simply point out that amidst threats death, torture, and worse, Putin cut a deal. My 2 cents is because whatever he had to fight Wagner with, it would have to pulled out of Ukraine weakening things there even more than Wagners own withdrawal. In addition those forces would have shown up right after Wagner had taken the Kremlin, and some other important bits of central Moscow, and dug in like really unpleasant ticks.

[akd]

9 minutes ago, strac_sap said:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/27/europe/lukashenko-wagner-rebellion-negotiations-putin-intl/index.html

What would Putin have used to crush Wagner "like a bug?" Seemed like only rear echelon and security forces anywhere around, and they seemed reluctant to engage. And Wagner seemed to have combined armed assets that worked, including anti air.

PO...TA...TOES!

[strac_sap]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I will simply point out that amidst threats death, torture, and worse, Putin cut a deal. My 2 cents is because whatever he had to fight Wagner with, it would have to pulled out of Ukraine weakening things there even more than Wagners own withdrawal. In addition those forces would have shown up right after Wagner had taken the Kremlin, and some other important bits of central Moscow, and dug in like really unpleasant ticks.

And he (Luka) hedges his bets with Putin by making him sound tough.

[Offshoot]

23 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 

Prog and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.

Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?

Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath while the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”

Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  

Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2023/jun/27/steve-bell-on-prigozhins-armed-mutiny-against-vladimir-putin-cartoon

[Artkin]

So much for sending non-lethal aid only. 

[FancyCat]

i would warn against rehashing the same arguments over the future of Russia and how to best manage its collapse since its one that goes quite a long number of pages (i kid). but one thing is clear by the current crisis, neither side, for varied reasons, wants to undergo a full scale civil war, or general collapse, which is surely a good thing that both sides understand that despite jockeying for control, both will lose in the event Russia descends into chaos. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by FancyCat

[cesmonkey]

A longer argument on how the war should end from this UK think tank: