How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

A major aspect of a coup is typically have some base of support and then if you have success more & more folks jump your winning side.  It's ridiculous to think he needed everyone on board before he even started, else it's not a secret.  It was clear a lot of powerful folks were on board, so what on earth happened?   But it's not like Prig is some master strategist like his boss, Putler.  Still, it's all very odd.

I now am rooting for Shoigu & Gerasimov & MOD to attempt a coup.  I bet they'd look to end the war ASAP and blame the failure on Putin betraying the armed forces from day 1.  "bring the boys home!  The great betrayer is dead!"  would be my rallying call.

Shoigu and Gerasimov are likely under a form of house arrest or they are sitting in the basement of some nasty place where fates are often unpleasant.  The fact that Wagner stood down means the MoD is not likely going to do anything.  If there was a threat of the MoD doing something, we'd see videos of Wagnerites in Moscow or at least camped out around it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Might have missed it due to formatting and his exclusion of complete unit title, but he also included the 1st Separate Tank Brigade, 20th Guards CAA, WMD (в/ч 63453) in his list.

Yeah, I fought with the formatting and obviously lost the last item.  Fixed, thanks!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Damn, I keep forgetting to mention another obvious piece of evidence that this is NOT over yet and/or Putin lost.  From ISW's June 25th report:

Quote

The ultranationalist Angry Patriots Club held a pre-scheduled event in Moscow on June 25 and espoused longstanding criticisms against Putin and the Russian military leadership, suggesting that the Kremlin will not immediately begin cracking down on antagonistic ultranationalist groups in the aftermath of Prigozhin’s rebellion.[25] The Angry Patriots Club is a pro-war social movement that aims to correct perceived issues in the war-effort in Ukraine so that Russian forces can achieve victory, and the club’s members have used that mission to launch routine scathing criticisms of the MoD, the Kremlin, and Putin himself.[26] The Angry Patriots Club has also notably called for “revolution” if the Kremlin freezes the war in Ukraine or pursues negotiations.[27] Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin spoke at the livestreamed event in Moscow and delivered a set of longstanding theses on what Russia needs to do to win the war in Ukraine.[28] Girkin publicly reiterated that Putin needs to legally transfer certain presidential authorities to other parties if Putin is unwilling to assume control over the war in Ukraine as the supreme Commander-in-Chief.[29] The Angry Patriots Club had promoted the event for several weeks, and Russian officials were likely aware of it to some extent.[30] If the Kremlin intends to use Prigozhin’s rebellion as pretext to start immediately suppressing antagonistic ultranationalists, then this event would have likely been a prime candidate to start that effort. The Kremlin likely risks Prigozhin’s armed rebellion expanding the window of acceptable anti-Kremlin criticism, particularly if the Kremlin does not intend to retaliate further against Prigozhin. The Kremlin’s continued careful response to the armed rebellion will likely prompt other Russian nationalists to test Russian official reactions to more explicitly critical rhetoric.

Note the highlighted bit towards the end.  To put this into context...

You the head of state.  An internal group, part of a larger movement, challenges you through force.  They fail, you win.  What do you do with the people that perpetrated this?

1. do nothing
2. take action

Even in a democracy, you take action though available legal means, such as what is still unfolding in the US since Jan 6th attack on Congress.  This takes time because that's the way it is structured.  However, in an autocratic regime the response is universally swift, often brutal, and generally extends to groups beyond the real threat.

Club of Angry Patriots weren't rounded up by FSB and shoved into vans.  Various RU mil bloggers supporting Wagner haven't been rounded up or even silenced.  There's been no reports of high profile people falling out of windows.  Nothing.  We should have seen some evidence of a crackdown today.  Yet nothing.

More evidence that negotiations are still underway and that the party with the most power is not Putin.

I agree with Grigb's post many pages ago... looks like the military RU Ultras have the upper hand.  Girkin and his ilk are on their side, therefore they aren't being touched.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

How many private armies are like that in Russia? A few hundred years ago after the demise of the Habsburgers in Europe the English and the Dutch had something like them. The East Indies Compagnies, they were a law upon themselves could even declare war. After the governments took over and the colonial era started. Russia move to the 21st Century with yesterdays politics you lose. 

[Grigb]

There is now no credible data available, save for a video published by RIA News showing Shoigu at forward HQ. The exact date is unknown. In theory, this means that nothing bad will happen to him.

Otherwise, the Ru Nats feel Prig has won, and Dumin and Surovikin have taken the place of Shoigy and Gerasimov. There are multiple rumors and discussions concerning an investigations and label changes in the RU MOD building. However, there is still nothing credible.

[kluge]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You've now been offered the two things you publicly demanded, being the dismissal of Shoigu and Gerasimov.  What choice would you make?

1. abandon your drive, abandon your fighters to their fate, and go into exile
2. continue your advance on Moscow to make sure the offered deal is not a ruse to buy the regime time
3. hedge your bets and withdraw to Rostov, a place treating you like heroes and effectively more valuable than Moscow

If you said #2 you'd be correct, but Prig chose #1 and apparently didn't even consider #3.

Perhaps Prig chose #3: Hedge bets and withdraw to Ukraine for now, with Wagner intact and capable of further action.

The more I think about it, the more #1 sounds like Peskov attempting to preempt any negotiations by declaring that Prig "agreed" to what is at best a questionable deal for Prig.

[Battlefront.com]

For what it is worth, this is Meduza's take on things using their sources in Moscow.  Who, it should be remembered, have questionable loyalties at this point in time.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/25/putin-was-nowhere-to-be-found

Steve

[chuckdyke]

It is Monday, brainwash day in Russia. 

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

There is now no credible data available, save for a video published by RIA News showing Shoigu at forward HQ. The exact date is unknown. In theory, this means that nothing bad will happen to him.

Otherwise, the Ru Nats feel Prig has won, and Dumin and Surovikin have taken the place of Shoigy and Gerasimov. There are multiple rumors and discussions concerning an investigations and label changes in the RU MOD building. However, there is still nothing credible.

Yeah, and here's another flaw in the claim that Prig was freaked out about MoD units not proactively declaring they were on his side... WHY WOULD HE EXPECT them to overtly switch sides after only a few hours into the crisis?  He couldn't possibly have risked lining up unit commanders and major political entities ahead of time out of fear of being found out.  So for sure he must have known this was all going to be a shock to them and they'd hedge their bets.

The expected reaction would be for a unit 100s of KMs away from Moscow and Wagner's columns to sit tight and wait to see what happened with the march.  I know I sure as Hell would.  But Prig's success along his march showed that anybody within 100s of Meters of him switched sides.  This should have kept his spirits up because the units 100s of KMs away had no bearing on anything, but the ones directly in his path absolutely did.  And the results up until he quit were very favorable.

Aside from that, there is another flaw in the theory that Prig threw in the towel and Putin is the master strategist.  Putin, according to Meduza, ordered everybody to get out there and sound off that they were sticking with the regime.  Some such announcements did happen, but it was noticeably few from what I could tell.  As in embarrassingly few.

So yeah, Prig should have expected most people would not stick their necks out for him within hours, but he should have been surprised that few people were willing to overtly sound off in support of Putin.  Prig has a well oiled information wing of Wagner, they would have known this.

Every time I look at this I see more evidence that the cover story that most people have bought into is not the truth.  Or at least is missing something significant.

Steve

[Grigb]

So far

• The CT protocol in Moscow and Voronezh has been stopped
• Announcement that Dumin (supposed to replace Shoigu) remains in Tula today
• No changes in RU MOD so far (supposed to be already announced)
• The RU Nats are confused, but largely hopeful that it is just cunning plan

[TheVulture]

BBC are reporting the release of a video showing Shoigu still apparently in command at the MoD:

Shoigu video a show of composure and control

Sarah Rainsford

Eastern Europe correspondent

ReutersCopyright: Reuters

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) was pictured next to a commander, on visit to a control post this picture released by the defence ministry

The short video of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu shows him very much still in his job.

We don’t know when it was filmed. But we can read the message it’s meant to send: that, for now at least, Vladimir Putin is protecting his minister – not sacking him, as Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded when he launched his mutiny over the weekend.

Shoigu, who’s been a close ally and friend of Putin for many years, is filmed checking maps and consulting his generals – supposedly at a forward command post of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

He even notes their supposed successes on the battlefield. It’s an obvious show of composure and control by the Kremlin after an armed uprising that left Putin looking weak; his authority badly diminished.

He’d even been forced to drop criminal charges against Prigozhin - the man he had publicly labelled a traitor, just hours before.

Edited June 26, 2023 by TheVulture

[Letter from Prague]

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-agents-threat-family-made-204246993.html

Then there's this article ... but I mean, what did they expect?

Man the coup seems as badly planned as the invasion.

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

BBC are reporting the release of a video showing Shoigu still apparently in command at the MoD:

Shoigu video a show of composure and control

Sarah Rainsford

Eastern Europe correspondent

ReutersCopyright: Reuters

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (right) was pictured next to a commander, on visit to a control post this picture released by the defence ministry

The short video of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu shows him very much still in his job.

We don’t know when it was filmed. But we can read the message it’s meant to send: that, for now at least, Vladimir Putin is protecting his minister – not sacking him, as Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded when he launched his mutiny over the weekend.

Shoigu, who’s been a close ally and friend of Putin for many years, is filmed checking maps and consulting his generals – supposedly at a forward command post of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

He even notes their supposed successes on the battlefield. It’s an obvious show of composure and control by the Kremlin after an armed uprising that left Putin looking weak; his authority badly diminished.

He’d even been forced to drop criminal charges against Prigozhin - the man he had publicly labelled a traitor, just hours before.

The problem is that video is most likely from Friday.

[Grigb]

RBK News (Sort of Respectable RU Business News Holding) - investigation of Prig is not closed. He is still under investigation.

[TheVulture]

50 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The problem is that video is most likely from Friday.

Maybe,  but putting it out today looks like a deilberate message that he's still in post: not something you'd do if he had in fact been fired per Prig's demands.

Edited June 26, 2023 by TheVulture

[cesmonkey]

Ukraine's deputy defense minister posted a summary for the past week.
https://t.me/annamaliar/885

Of interest to me was Russia's increased use of artillery:
 

Quote

If you add up the number of enemy shellings in the east and south, you get more than 10,000 shellings per week. This is actually 24/7 and every minute.

[Grigb]

59 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Maybe,  but putting it out today looks like a deilberate message that he's still in post: not something you'd do if he had in fact been fired per Prig's demands.

Yes, publishing it today normally is a sign of Putin decision to keep him.

[chuckdyke]

They found him!

 

[DesertFox]

So, posters for Wagner recruitment are being returned and a vid of Shoigu inspecting troops is officially released. Aaaannnd official channels are trumpeting that the legal case against Prig isn't closed at all.

Everything back to normal in Orc-Land? Nothing happened at the weekend, or just the normal monday morning madness?

 

 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2023 by DesertFox

[DesertFox]

Girkin wants them dead. All of em.

 

 

[Huba]

There's a new Vlad Vexler video about the implications of the Wagner Coup. In summary, he says that the biggest danger it created was showcasing that for the first time since Putin's ascendence to power, there is an alternative and regime change can happen relatively easily.

 

[Grigb]

RU Nats confusion slowly (very slowly) turns to anger.

[paxromana]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats confusion slowly (very slowly) turns to anger.

Well, I don't think anyone has ever accused any of them of being terribly bright ...

Edited June 26, 2023 by paxromana

[FancyCat]

Random commentor but I think Grigb might agree, messaging to keep RU Nats from exploding with anger?

[DesertFox]