How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Prig knows where to hit, give him that.  Likely been thinking about this move for awhile.  Ironic if he can quickly take a major city in a lightening strike…you know….after Feb 22…

So if Prighozin starts sending out orders from that building thru channels that people have been trained to obey on pain of death, literally more or less, how many units will follow them out of ingrained habit?

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Prig knows where to hit, give him that.  Likely been thinking about this move for awhile.  Ironic if he can quickly take a major city in a lightening strike…you know….after Feb 22…

What I'm asking folks and getting no answer on is what happens if Putin can't find anyone to fight Wagner? 

[akd]

 

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

What I'm asking folks and getting no answer on is what happens if Putin can't find anyone to fight Wagner? 

Hard to believe frankly, with all its heavy equipment. Also regime propaganda machine need a solid kick to start working, but when it moves it will probably rally many loyalists.

[dan/california]

Just now, billbindc said:

What I'm asking folks and getting no answer on is what happens if Putin can't find anyone to fight Wagner? 

Putins life expectancy starts to be measured in hours, perhaps minutes. Because ten seconds after the inner circle realizes Putin is losing, the one that walks out on the balcony with Putin's head is the only one Prigozhin might not kill.

[Kraft]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, but we don't know which soldiers are Russian...and which Russians

The tanks have red paint as markings for wagner, and they are pointing their guns at the MoD building

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

 

OMG OMG OMG RA surrenders this command center w/o a fight?????????   WTH is going on here?

Out of likes, some great comments & insights above. 

[Kraft]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

OMG OMG OMG RA surrenders this command center w/o a fight?????????   WTH is going on here?

Out of likes, some great comments & insights above. 

I do not believe that to be active tbh, that wouldve been a prime target for Stormshadow etc

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Hard to believe frankly, with all its heavy equipment. Also regime propaganda machine need a solid kick to start working, but when it moves it will probably rally many loyalists.

Between a fight with Wagner and the epic loss in Ukraine that Prigozhin has probably made the rest of the way inevitable, they are going to have to kick the rallying into high gear. I mean Ukraine commits EVERYTHING in in the next 24 hours at the latest don't they? I really doubt not knowing whose orders to take improves the performance of the average mobik battalion.

[akd]

Rostov is now Valhalla. Also they claim to have shot down another helicopter.

Edited June 24, 2023 by akd

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

I do not believe that to be active tbh, that wouldve been a prime target for Stormshadow etc

Ukraine probably promised not to shoot them at Russia proper.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Between a fight with Wagner and the epic loss in Ukraine that Prigozhin has probably made the rest of the way inevitable, they are going to have to kick the rallying into high gear. I mean Ukraine commits EVERYTHING in in the next 24 hours at the latest don't they? I really doubt not knowing whose orders to take improves the performance of the average mobik battalion.

no, give this a chance to play out and stick to the plan.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Rostov is now Valhalla.

BLEEP ME, this game is for real folks. If that tweet is true, at least.

[Joe982]

Prigozan has been saying that the MOD has lied to Putin and lied to the people. He is not attacking Putin directly.

"Putin has been informed" means that Putin has not taken sides yet.

.

 

[dan/california]

And now come to the next hard question. Would Putin give the order to nuke a RUSSIAN city? If he gave the order would it be followed?

[DesertFox]

Very interesting developments in Rostov. Never thought that they manage that. But now I'm off to bed.

 

 

[billbindc]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

Hard to believe frankly, with all its heavy equipment. Also regime propaganda machine need a solid kick to start working, but when it moves it will probably rally many loyalists.

Will it? The Russian state looks paralyzed right now and Rosgardia/OMON troops are simply letting Wagner drive around them despite direct orders to stop them violently if necessary. This is a demobilized state. There's no reason to expect that to change. 

[dan/california]

He has a ton of pictures.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Will it? The Russian state looks paralyzed right now and Rosgardia/OMON troops are simply letting Wagner drive around them despite direct orders to stop them violently if necessary. This is a demobilized state. There's no reason to expect that to change. 

I am officially going to brag. I said months and months ago that Prigozhin was going to make himself Czar or get messily dead. I should have put money down.

[dan/california]

I also have to point out The_Capt was correct, civil war in CAN move Ukraine right off the front page.

[Huba]

Wagner troops movement on the Rostov - Voronezh - Moscow highway is confirmed and geolocated:

 

[Beleg85]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Will it? The Russian state looks paralyzed right now and Rosgardia/OMON troops are simply letting Wagner drive around them despite direct orders to stop them violently if necessary. This is a demobilized state. There's no reason to expect that to change. 

This is important city, but very far from Moscow, where real power always lies and many loyal units are stationed. It is also night, so we will see how propaganda will react during the day. I wouldn't like to be in their shoes...they need to feed something for population, but may lack instructions from Kremlin what to actually think.

If Prig will indeed take hold of Rostov- it does seem to be the case- Kremlin will probably need to negotiate with him for some time, downplaying violence (if such already happened) and treat it as kind of "petition" to ruler- note Wagner do not question Putin position as such, only generals in MoD. But yeah, pretty complicated situation.

[Huba]

Also some very interesting, if not yet confirmed info from the Belarus:

 

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This is important city, but very far from Moscow, where real power always lies and many loyal units are stationed. It is also night, so we will see how propaganda will react during the day. I wouldn't like to be in their shoes...they need to feed something for population, but may lack instructions from Kremlin what to actually think.

If Prig will indeed take hold of Rostov- it does seem to be the case- Kremlin will probably need to negotiate with him for some time, downplaying violence (if such already happened) and treat it as kind of "petition" to ruler- note Wagner do not question Putin position as such, only generals in MoD. But yeah, pretty complicated situation.

I do agree that there will be negotiations...there probably already are conversations happening. But Putin's continued absence has me wondering what's going on with him. He may simply not have the ability to make a deal that other factions would accept.

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

And now come to the next hard question. Would Putin give the order to nuke a RUSSIAN city? If he gave the order would it be followed?

why?  If he nuked Rostov, the Ukraine invasion definitely comes to a halt.  it'll be a day or two before we know if Prig hasn't just signed his own death warrant or if the RA becomes unreliable.  Either way, I don't see him leveling Rostov.  If it does end up with an urban grind, then Putin has bigger problems.