How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

UKR Kovalenko discusses an intriguing RU reinforcement deployment design.

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Parallelogram of the occupier

As I already stated, the Russian invaders in Ukraine's south face a severe lack of people to conduct full-fledged defense throughout the whole front line, which is currently convulsing. As a result, they only strengthen a few areas. When you consider what sort of resource they are using, where they are coming from, and where they are going in the previous two weeks, a really intriguing phenomena emerges: the Russian occupiers' parallelogram.

Essentially, RU forces and weapons are concentrated throughout the Zaporozhye region's second and third lines of defense. However, given the density of the defense lines and the concentrated manpower, this whole mass sits on the official boundary of the temporarily occupied Crimean Peninsula. They are gathering units from the left bank of Kherson to strengthen it... parallelogram.

All of this raises the question of what will happen to the weaker zones that remain outside of this geometric sadomasochism, because it appears that here is where the RU most impenetrable defense will be. 

But who said this geometry was for defense?

Despite the concentration of forces and weapons, this whole Pythagorean thing is aimed for the most safe, unhurried, methodical escape. And the defensive lines that are currently being constructed on Crimean territory are concrete evidence of this. Those lines of defense being erected in Crimea, as well as the Russian units stationed on the peninsula, will not be able to hold [AFU]. However, if they receive an injection of forces and resources, even if just up to 100,000 soldiers, then this entire defense architecture has at least some relevance.

Therefore, it is obvious that the command of the RU has long realized that they cannot hold the South, but they will try to simulate a desperate "heroic" defense as long as possible, which is why the parallelogram for them seems more optimal for stretching the process.

As a result, it is clear that the RU command has long understood that they cannot defend the South, but they will try to mimic a desperate "heroic" resistance for as long as possible, which is why the parallelogram appears to be more optimum for lengthening the process for them.

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Kamyanske. Large village on the Dnipro bank. It divided in half by a river gulf. Northern part under UA control, southern - under Russian control. I think, he meant Russian forces retreated in derection Kamyanske, but not completely all to this village

I considered that, but there will be a pocket there. On the other hand, surrendering will be easy there. 

[Grigb]

UKR's thoughts on the AMX-10 RC (small video of AMX are passing by)

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The French are driving to work

The AMX-10 RC was given to us by France and has already proven its worth in the war. Many have witnessed RU manipulation photos of this machine's failed usage, yet this "wheeled tank," as many call it, plays an amazing role of a gun with outstanding accuracy.

The main challenge is to avoid using them in frontal attacks. [For RU-based military it is a real challenge]

According to the fighters, "the vehicle, though lightly armored, has a gun like a sniper rifle."

The video is from an archive and has been provided with the necessary delay.

 

[Grigb]

The RU forces are having major problems with their drinking water supply. As usual, the RU MOD responds that everything is fine.

[pintere]

From RUSI, by the same guy who wrote the recent report about Russian tactics:

"Ukrainian forces are making gains, but the offensive is some way from its decisive phase; we must refrain from premature pronouncements of success or failure.

Ukrainian forces have launched their long-anticipated offensive in an attempt to break through Russian defence lines to liberate the occupied territories. Ukrainian troops have broken through initial fighting positions along a broad part of the front, but remain some distance from Russia’s main defence line. Kyiv has yet to commit the bulk of its forces as its lead elements try to set the conditions for a breakthrough.

The fighting so far has been tough. Russia’s initial fighting positions constituted fox holes and hand-dug trenches, but behind these were complex minefields of anti-tank and antipersonnel mines, covered by Russian UAVs and artillery. The main defence line, still 15–20 km from Ukrainian positions, has properly dug trenches and concrete-reinforced firing posts, tank obstacles, ground-laid cable to coordinate artillery strikes, and even more mines. Behind that are the reserve fighting positions of the third defence line.

The fighting will likely get tougher. As Ukrainian forces penetrate deeper into the defences, they will come into range of more Russian artillery firing posts. Moreover, their own artillery will be able to deliver fewer counterbattery missions, and the Ukrainian lines of advance will become more predictable, as they must follow the breaches identified in the minefields. As Ukrainian troops push forwards, they will also be covered by fewer air defences, and will likely come under greater attack by the Russian Aerospace Forces and aviation.

Given these threats, the Ukrainian military is currently trying to achieve three things. Firstly, there is an intense counterbattery duel being fought, with both sides trying to strike each other’s logistics, command and control, reconnaissance, and artillery systems. The Russians are hunting for Ukraine’s artillery with Lancet UAVs. The Ukrainians are utilising Storm Shadow and GMLRS to try to destroy Russian command and control and munitions stockpiles.

Secondly, the Ukrainians are trying to get the Russians to commit their reserves, moving troops from the third defence line to bolster sectors under pressure. Once these troops are pulled forwards, it will become easier to identify the weak points in the Russian lines, where a breakthrough will not be met by a new screen of repositioned forces.

Thirdly, the Ukrainian military is trying to put pressure across the front to advance through the first line of defences in as much breadth as possible. The reason for this is to increase the options for attacking the main defence line and to keep Russian forces uncertain as to where the main effort will be launched. Furthermore, with such a long front, stretching out Russian troops limits their ability to stack units in depth, pulling more forward.

At some point, the Ukrainians will have to decide where to commit their main assault units, and the offensive will enter its decisive phase. This decision must be conditions-based. It isn’t about adhering to some fixed timeline. When these units are committed, the offensive will either achieve a breakthrough or fail. Success is binary, not linear. The line is either broken or it is not, and Kyiv must shape the battlefield to maximise the probability of a breach.

The extent of a success will be determined by how much progress is made on the other side of the breach. If a breach can be achieved, then the critical question will be how many units Ukraine has in reserve to surge forward and exploit the success. If operations are currently methodical, once a breach in the line occurs, speed will be of the essence.

The uncertain variable in the current offensive is Russian morale. Russian units are currently fighting from prepared positions and their command-and-control infrastructure is mostly intact, though some key command posts have been struck. If Russian units can be forced to reposition, however, the poor training and discipline of Moscow’s forces could see the defence become uncoordinated and susceptible to collapse. Bringing about such conditions would require some significant actions by the Ukrainians to get the Russians moving, but it is possible under such conditions for the strength of the defence to crumble rapidly. Ukraine can endeavour to bring such a situation about, but it cannot be counted on.

For Ukraine’s international partners, the summer is likely to be deeply uncomfortable. Losses will mount and success will take time. It is vital, however, that there is no diminution in the strengthening of the training programmes allowing Ukraine to continue to generate combat units, or the mobilisation of defence industry to put supply to the Ukrainian military on a sustainable basis. However much territory is liberated in this offensive, the critical variable is convincing the Kremlin that even if its defeat comes in stages, it is coming."

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraines-counteroffensive-begins-shall-leopards-break-free

[Haiduk]

The strike on Russian SNAR-10 artillery radar near Verbove village (8 km east from Robotyne). SNAR-10 is old Soviet artillery recon asset, mostly used for tracking of own shells explosions (up to 10 km) and ajusting a fire by this data. It also can detect moving targets. But it hasn't counter-battery capabilities.

Since 2002 Russian army got some number of upgraded SNAR-10M1 on MTLB base, but they also havn't counter battery usage. Usually this asset is a part of artillery regiment/brigade level, included in radiolocation platoon of BUAR (battery of control and artillery recon) along with ARK-1 - counter-battery radar on MT-LBu base

 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

Viktor Murakhovsky (Soviet and Russian military and public figure, colonel of the reserve, member of the Expert Council of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation)

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The photo of industrial production of top protection has been published. The kits are designed to be easily removable and installed on the field. The issue of protecting against Javelin (and similar) attacks from above appears to be resolved.

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Grigb

[Grigb]

RU are saying UKR just hit HQ of 80th Brigade (AFAIR it is at Novodarivka-Stepove of Berdyanks direction)

[Haiduk]

Russian TG says according to their source in General Staff, in result of today's strikes on ammo dumps in Kherson oblast was lost 15-20 % of ammunition, stored for defense of southern direction. As if also were lost about of 30 servicemen and dozens of vehciles, including tanks. 

Thought, it can be also disinformation

Edited June 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU are saying UKR just hit HQ of 80th Brigade (AFAIR it is at Novodarivka-Stepove of Berdyanks direction)

Heh... Special "Arctic" brigade of Northern Fleet Coastal troops in Ukrainian hot steppes %)

Edited June 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Small UKR push on northern flank of Avdiiva sector

 

[Haiduk]

Challenger 2 somewhere

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[Ultradave]

6 hours ago, sburke said:

ahh man, this is worthy of a Monty Python skit.

Kremlin decides that goal to "demilitarise" Ukraine has largely been achieved (yahoo.com)

So apparently Russia just wanted Ukraine to not have any of it's old legacy weapons.  

 

Worthy of Baghdad Bob!

Dave

[Ultradave]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

Don't actually know of a case, but NATO has an enormously detailed and robust procedures to ensure that our artillery doesn't accidentally hit one of our own aircraft. The quality of the Russians manual, and the adherence to it would have to be considered questionable given their performance at almost everything else, but if they have done it they haven't admitted it. Getting hit by the other sides arty is pretty much just plain bad luck, and again I don't actually know of a case. 

Their have been at least a couple of cases in this war of Russians planes getting shot down by their own sides SAMs because the crews were twitchy and/or incompetent.

This is true. When I did it (as artillery) we had to provide confirmation of "Check Fire" before the air support would make its run on the target. Whether there was a FAC that I went through, or I was doing it myself as the FIST, we were in contact with the aircraft. Being artillery we used to joke "Big sky, little bullet."  This does not amuse pilots. 

But yeah, nothing you can do about the opposing artillery. If your aircraft and an artillery round collide, well, it's a bad day and very bad luck. Two things moving very fast through the air on different paths - the chances really are pretty remote.

Dave

[pintere]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TG says according to their source in General Staff, in result of today's strikes on ammo dumps in Kherson oblast was lost 15-20 % of ammunition, stored for defense of southern direction. As if also were lost about of 30 servicemen and dozens of vehciles, including tanks. 

Thought, it can be also disinformation

Surely no sane person would give away the exact percentage of ammunition lost…

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Viktor Murakhovsky (Soviet and Russian military and public figure, colonel of the reserve, member of the Expert Council of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation)

 

That is ridiculous.  They are the point they need to bubble wrap a tank and build a barn roof on top of it.

[DesertFox]

Smoking in Bryansk

 

 

[DesertFox]

Malnourishment seems to be a constant in the orc army

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1670383244162879488?s=20

 

[DesertFox]

Tokmak direction

 

 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, pintere said:

Success is binary, not linear

Nicely put. 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, pintere said:

Surely no sane person would give away the exact percentage of ammunition lost…

They even give away the location of themselves and get storm shadowed in return...Thanks god they are so stupid.

 

 

[DesertFox]

Bradley footage

 

 

[DesertFox]

Looks like you nearly can walk on foot from Nikopol to ZNPP now:

 

 

[DesertFox]

Nice one. I guess they have some new tools to play with

 

 

 

 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Challenger 2 somewhere

 

Would love to see a deal, giving them the phased out Chally 1s from Jordan. They have aprox 400 of them.