Ultradave Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: I think I can speak for just about everybody here... and all day we'd make a special point of reading everything you wrote I know that every time the NPP gets brought up I wait to see what you have to say before getting into a tizzy. I sleep much better. Steve If there is more news on this later or if things change, I'll be sure to provide some commentary/perspective. Dave 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCommenter Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 (edited) Off topic of Nova Kakhova but I thought this blog post by Lawrence Freedman was worth sharing. "Salami Slicing, Boiled Frogs, and Russian Red Lines" https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/salami-slicing-boiled-frogs-and-russian?r=ypt3l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email It's basically much the same content as Perun's video this week on escalation but I think it's worth a read. Edited June 6, 2023 by RandomCommenter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 The thing about this new intelligence regarding the destruction of NS1 and NS2 is that the intelligence was shared with Germany in June, I don't think Ukraine would deliberately bomb Nordstream after Germany and other Western partners were aware of it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 21 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Excerpts: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/ Note that the story here is that one service heard a story from one source that they couldn't corroborate about a plan but not an actual operation. Going to make a bet that the European service involved was either Germany or Austria and value the intelligence accordingly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, billbindc said: Note that the story here is that one service heard a story from one source that they couldn't corroborate about a plan but not an actual operation. Going to make a bet that the European service involved was either Germany or Austria and value the intelligence accordingly. Article states the European agency also informed Germany, aside from the U.S also informing Germany. So it's not Germany definitely that sourced it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Satellite images of Nova Kakhovka Dam. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, FancyCat said: The thing about this new intelligence regarding the destruction of NS1 and NS2 is that the intelligence was shared with Germany in June, I don't think Ukraine would deliberately bomb Nordstream after Germany and other Western partners were aware of it. And we can also speculate why Ukraine put the operation "On Hold". It really would be this simple: US - "Good morning Ukraine! We hope you managed to get some sleep last night, despite the terror attacks" Ukraine - "Good morning USA! Yes, it was difficult but we learn how to sleep and fight at the same time. Thank you for your concerns". US - "We're happy to hear that. That's good. Good. Uhm, we have something delicate to discuss with you. Is now a good time for a chat?" Ukraine - "Yes, now is fine. What's on your mind?" US - "Well, we can't say how we know this but we are pretty confident that you have plans to blow up Nordstream. Now you don't have to confirm or deny this, we understand this sort of thing better than most. However, we do have one thing to say about this in case you are indeed planning on such an action". Ukraine - "OK. What is it?" US - "Don't" Ukraine - "Thank you for expressing your concerns. Consider the message received and understood." US - "Excellent. Then we need not think about this any more. Slava Ukraini!" Ukraine - "Heroiam slava! You have yourself a good day." Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 I guess we will learn soon what is up. I expect nothing we haven't already touched on 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kluge Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 39 minutes ago, Ultradave said: If there is more news on this later or if things change, I'll be sure to provide some commentary/perspective. From the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/06/russia-ukraine-war-live-dam-near-kherson-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-military-says?page=with:block-647f305a8f083b98d0d4ec97#block-647f305a8f083b98d0d4ec97 Quote And even if there will be no water in the Kakhovsky reservoir at all, the project provides measures to replenish it. One of the latter is the use of underground water from wells at the ZNPP site. Seems like that the plant will be able to remain in its current state indefinitely, although it just lost some margin of safety. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gpig Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 2 hours ago, DesertFox said: If in doubt, everything is a Tiger tank, err Leopard 2... I suppose it could be a Leopard . . . If this grainy FLIR silhouette is compared to a Leapord there is is some resemblance in silhouette, and those white plumes could be exhaust (rather than void space beneath a tractor) if the helicopters POV is from behind the tank 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Uupsi.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Uupsi.... Looks like mines being pulled into the flume. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, billbindc said: Looks like mines being pulled into the flume. Hard to tell. Anyways looks like we have another vid from the morning showing the dam already breached and a explosion in it. Odd stuff going on. I guess they tried and failed to stage some things. The first vid is from 2:45 am at night, the other one after sunrise. Here: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted June 6, 2023 Author Share Posted June 6, 2023 I am probably missing something, but how does that dam being blown have something to do with a Ukrainian offensive? BTW, how much of that reservoir will drain before allowing a crossing through that area? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, Probus said: I am probably missing something, but how does that dam being blown have something to do with a Ukrainian offensive? BTW, how much of that reservoir will drain before allowing a crossing through that area? The quick version is that it's (probably) an exercise in economy of force. The flooding is a serious obstacle, meaning Russia can take troops out of the line opposite Kherson and use them to react to the Ukrainian offensive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 4 hours ago, Ultradave said: I think I'll stop here. I could talk about this stuff all day Bottom line is that it sounds like the reactor plant is safe for the foreseeable future, as long as no one damages that on-site cooling pond/lake. I'd get concerned if fighting happens around the plant. Previously, Russian commanders locally have shown a dangerous disregard for the hazards of munitions and reactor plants. Dave Hey man, we've been able to drivel on for many, many pages about tenuously related and stupidly contentious topics so please, feel free to info-dump on us! I for one geek out on this stuff. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, Probus said: I am probably missing something, but how does that dam being blown have something to do with a Ukrainian offensive? BTW, how much of that reservoir will drain before allowing a crossing through that area? Russia lacks men to defend the full front. The Kherson front is closest to Perekop. Keeping strong raiding parties from crossing the Dnieper saves Russian manpower and provides defenses in terms of flooded land that are better than anything the RuAF can do themselves. The reservoir will be harder to cross at a lower level (no established landings, muddy banks for 100s of yards, etc). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 If the U.S pulls out the smoking gun on the dam, what do you think will be the Western reply? I'm thinking ATACMS. Also, what do you think Ukraine is gonna do? I'm 100 percent thinking more attacks in Russia proper, including Ukrainian ground units attacking Belgorod. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 There's plenty of dams in Russia proper... but a single dam would swallow up a lot of Storm Shadows. The Nova dam sabotage weakened the structure and let the water pressure do the actual work to rip the dam apart. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlsatianFelix Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Russian liberation forces report a new attack on yet another border control point: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/142a80n/the_border_guard_of_the_bryansk_region_reported/ Some footage of tanks crossing into Russia: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/142cie4/freedom_russia_legion_662023_as_you_can_see_the/ Steve Those tanks are rolling up on a bridge that cross the Donets in the southern outskirts of Novaya Tavolzhanka Edited June 6, 2023 by AlsatianFelix fixed broken link 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Gpig said: I suppose it could be a Leopard . . . If this grainy FLIR silhouette is compared to a Leapord there is is some resemblance in silhouette, and those white plumes could be exhaust (rather than void space beneath a tractor) if the helicopters POV is from behind the tank Prigozhyn in own confrontation with MoD couldn't bypass this and humilitated MoD again, showing in mockery way that helicopters (here he calls him ATGMers) hit harvesters, but MoD passed them as tanks Edited June 6, 2023 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: US - "Well, we can't say how we know this but we are pretty confident that you have plans to blow up Nordstream. Now you don't have to confirm or deny this, we understand this sort of thing better than most. However, we do have one thing to say about this in case you are indeed planning on such an action". Ukraine - "OK. What is it?" US - "Don't" How do you square this fantasy conversation protecting the pipeline with the steady drumbeat from US politicians? e.g. “If Russia invades — that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine — then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.” President Biden 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Nice coincidence... Russian government resolution No. 873, dated 30 May 2023 "until 1 January 2028, a technical investigation of accidents at hazardous production facilities and accidents of hydraulic structures, resulting from military actions, sabotage, and terrorist acts, is not conducted" https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/06/one-week-before-kakhovka-dam-explosion-russia-opted-out-of-investigating-hazardous-accidents/?swcfpc=1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Russians shelled again ammonia pipeline near Masiutivka village, Kharkiv oblast, which they captured three weeks ago. Several close impacts were spotted near pump station. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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