How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Berlin, Leipzig, Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne and others... At this certain moment walking through their streets I could only think "what a justified crime the Anglo-Americans committed". 

If that is what make you sad and only thing you thought about, pack some tranquilizer medicines and try a walk in Warsaw, Bełżec, Majdanek or myriad other places fathers and brothers of those "killed children" crossed. Or see empitness of Jewish quarter here in Lublin, where entire vibrant city stood- and now is a grass field with single lamp. Even better, one could reach for some memoirs of III Reich slaves, who also died by thousands in those air raids. Very different picture will emerge than this cheap sentimentalism, I assure you.

Btw., since you have visible inclination to levell victims with perpetrators, when war end try visit place in Kyiv called Babyi Yar. It was bombed by Russians early in the current war, where family including small girl burned alive in a car. Quite symbolic connection between two wars.

Back to the topic.

Folks, keep proportions here, ok? Several small drones with 20kg warheads (or even without them) flew near windows of botox-covered lovers of some Russian oligarchs and some cry as it would be carpet bombing of Japan. It's war, let's move this discussions on moral high ground when something size of Iskanders start to fall on Russian cities daily.

More interesting question is if USA gave green light for this or not. If they did, I think it speaks volumes how our perception toward Ukraine changed positivelly.

Edited May 31, 2023 by Beleg85

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

If that is what make you sad and only thing you thought about, pack some medicines and try a walk in Warsaw, Bełżec, Majdanek or myriad other places fathers and brothers of those "killed children" crossed. Or see empitness of Jewish quarter here in Lublin, where entire vibrant city stood- and now is a grass field with single lamp. Even better, one could reach for some memoirs of III Reich slaves, who also died by thousands in those air raids. Very different picture will emerge than this cheap sentimentalism, I assure you.

Btw., since you have visible inclination to levell victims with perpetrators, when war end try visit place in Kyiv called Babyi Yar. It was bombed by Russians early in the current war, where family including small girl burned alive in a car. Quite symbolic connection between two wars.

I don't think that is what he wanted to express. But as I said, a sensitive topic on all sides. You are right to point which side was clearly more guilty. But can we agree that one wrong doesn't make another wrong right (though humanly understandable, I guess)?

Anyway, this is really going down the inflammatory road...

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

If that is what make you sad and only thing you thought about, pack some tranquilizer medicines and try a walk in Warsaw, Bełżec, Majdanek or myriad other places fathers and brothers of those "killed children" crossed. Or see empitness of Jewish quarter here in Lublin, where entire vibrant city stood- and now is a grass field with single lamp. Even better, one could reach for some memoirs of III Reich slaves, who also died by thousands in those air raids. Very different picture will emerge than this cheap sentimentalism, I assure you.

I may be a cheap sentimentalist but my father wasnt and he hated nazis with a passion, having lived the occupation first hand, organized in youth resistance, hiding radios, sharing leaflets etc.... But still considered those allied bombings a sort of crime. That tells a lot to me.    

[DesertFox]

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

The main goal of some (I mentioned Hamburg) bombing raids was explicitly to kill civilians, so I can't really see how that was collateral damage.

It was by the standards of the time. We need to understand that at the time back then when the Area Bombing Directive (General Directive No.5 (S.46368/D.C.A.S) was issued, industrial workforce and their morale was considered a legitimate target.

For the directive see here for a start:

Area bombing directive - Wikipedia

ef the new bombing directive: I suppose it is clear the aiming points will be the built up areas, and not, for instance, the dockyards or aircraft factories where these are mentioned in Appendix A. This must be made quite clear if it is not already understood.

It goes basically back to the Trenchard doctrine of 1928.

This bombing directive was already controversial back then, but legally not considered a war crime. It took until 1949 (Geneva Conventions - Wikipedia) and 1977 (Protocol II - Wikipedia) to finally fix this.

So, there you have it.

[Billy Ringo]

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.

Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.

Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.

 

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.

It surely is. It is Whataboutism.

[Splinty]

8 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.

Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.

Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.

 

I completely agree. Until Ukraine starts carpet bombing Russian cities this conversation is utterly irrelevant. Ukraine isn't -and most likely won't- deliberately killing Russian civilians.

Edited May 31, 2023 by Splinty
Bad grammar

[panzermartin]

I don't know how the discussion derailed towards the Allied WW2 bombings but I'm sure it was the beyond suspicion poster Haiduk that firts mentioned the analogy. I don't think he has succumbed to russian influence. 

[Beleg85]

57 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I may be a cheap sentimentalist but my father wasnt and he hated nazis with a passion, having lived the occupation first hand, organized in youth resistance, hiding radios, sharing leaflets etc.... But still considered those allied bombings a sort of crime. That tells a lot to me.    

Oh, they undoubtedly were. Except any mentioning of them without immediate context unfortunatelly creates false equalization narratives, that fly further and that are bane of modern, fat and safe societies. Books about "US concentration camps for Japanese citizens" or "NEW history of WWII, in which Germans are victims, too" sell like fresh bread and create distorted vision of reality. I witnessed myself this guiding many people here on historical sights. You would be surprised how often people, otherwise well read and educated, fall trap for these post-modern narratives.

Those narrations (and its fruits- books) are only a step away from much higher calibre of false arguments. Add two additional factors of our brains: tribalism and getting used to information about victims. Mind that victim blaming and equalization of suffering is part of psychological struggle to comprehed complicated political situations on part of safe outsiders, unfortunatelly. We witness the same with current war- Ukrainians die daily in aristrikes. But hey, a small drone OVER RUBLOVKA !? How this is possible. @Haiduk is entirely right here, it's frankly silly we talk of this strike in those terms, considering daily suffering on part of his people.

Ok folks, let's close this WWII topic.

The only good argument is indeed if Ukrainians will not blow this over by creating "rally around the flag" effect. But we are far too early in this phenomena to tell. They know Russian mentallity better than us, remember. Perhaps Muscovite imperial ego will suffer hammering wound that will help to destabilize it. I remind when "something" blew on Kerch bridge, and Putin framed it as "rude". Not defeat, not even event calling for revenge, but "it is rude on Ukrainian side to destroy his precious bridge".

Edited May 31, 2023 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

This alone is a very bad outcome that contradicts the assumptions that russians are losing trust in the establishment.

Note I didn't say the regime got more popular, only the regime got stronger, fear is a great motivation for obeying.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/27/russia-denunciations-arrests-informants-war/

 

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, paxromana said:

Same sort of false moral equivalency here.

What did I morally equivalate?

You mentioned saving lifes of own people outweights some collateral damage ie Nagasaki/.., with which I agree. The critical point here is staying proportional.

One could carpet bomb every village in which an insurgent in Afghanistan/whereever was spotted, 2 weeks ago. Would probably save some lifes on our end, would it be the right thing?

In that sense I ask, with mass surrenders of entire German army formations, frontline being pushed back and breaking at increasing speed and the end in measurable (<3 months super conservative) distance, the red army in throwing distance of the city,.. was killing those civilians worth it to knock out some optics factories with a gigantic firestorm?

How many scopes/.. could they have possibly produced in the remaining weeks and how many civilians died for each one? I dont think the numbers make sense to call it proportional at all.

 

Edited May 31, 2023 by Kraft

[Beleg85]

Ok, question to people who know USA political scene- how much info sen. Graham actually may possess in regards to Ukrainian offensive plans? We know he try to score political points in helping UA, but his statements get a little too detailed lately, and do not necessarly correspond with Ukrainian officials signalling to curb expectations.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/05/30/ukraines-counteroffensive-plan-impressive-sen-graham-says-00099230

[Billy Ringo]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, question to people who know USA political scene- how much info sen. Graham actually may possess in regards to Ukrainian offensive plans? We know he try to score political points in helping UA, but his statements get a little too detailed lately, and do not necessarly correspond with Ukrainian officials signalling to curb expectations.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/05/30/ukraines-counteroffensive-plan-impressive-sen-graham-says-00099230

Graham has been around a long time, he knows the game and what's at stake. My strong suspicion is that anything he says has already been vetted by both the Ukrainians and the US and strategically placed with intent. 

[Seminole]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, question to people who know USA political scene- how much info sen. Graham actually may possess in regards to Ukrainian offensive plans? We know he try to score political points in helping UA, but his statements get a little too detailed lately, and do not necessarly correspond with Ukrainian officials signalling to curb expectations.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/05/30/ukraines-counteroffensive-plan-impressive-sen-graham-says-00099230

I think it’s safe to say he’s the #1 hawk left in Congress, and he’s someone I’d expect to be well briefed by the Ukrainians.  

[FancyCat]

Belgorod, apparently Russia moved paratroopers based at Kreminna to reinforce the city, and Ukraine acts like it's advancing, making fake positions and forcing Russian forces to respond. Obviously could be psyop or just plain lies, but interesting still.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1663840190744461314?t=SYN4bxQ6w6q5bj-EXeqNbQ&s=19

 

[billbindc]

This is entirely on point: 

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Kinophile]

38 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Graham has been around a long time, he knows the game and what's at stake. My strong suspicion is that anything he says has already been vetted by both the Ukrainians and the US and strategically placed with intent. 

Graham is a political weasel, very good at feeling the political winds and sailing with them. Anything he says is only designed to make him look good, statesmanlike, irregardless of any vetting by the Ukrainians. 

What they have probably done is used him to amplify the propaganda campaign, by telling him something Very Very Secret, and swearing him to Biggest Pinky Swear that he won't divulge, No Sir,  You Have My Word. 

He's the proverbial political sock puppet, and being used as such. 

Edited May 31, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

F-16s in many ways are political, but one of the ways they are political is telling the Russians that we aren't quitting, ever. That they can leave now, or when their army is so broken Kazakistan can credibly threaten to invade. The fact F-16s would just let the Ukrainian air force keep flying isn't trivial either. They have pretty much sucked in every left over Soviet plane and part on the world market, they take wear and at least some damage every day. 

It is also worth pointing out that Patriots were not supposed be able to stop Kinzahls, and they are currently batting 1000. It is possible, not guaranteed but possible, that there will be a large upside surprise when the F-16s become active. A great deal depends on what munitions we send.

Sure, but Kori Schake is not making the argument that the effect of F-16's is political...she is claiming Biden is too weak or afraid to send them when they would have fairly immediate military effects. It's a profoundly bull**** argument aimed at finding a way to attack the WH to appeal to MAGA world while retaining mainstream credibility. 

[billbindc]

And this: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89851

[Vanir Ausf B]

Ok, enough drone talk. How about tanks!

Illia Ponomarenko has a good article on the M1 Abrams Ukraine is receiving and the associated technical challenges.

_________

According to the Kyiv Independent's sources, the Ukrainian military expects to get the M1A1SA variant, which confirms earlier reports by U.S. media.

The SA ("Situational Awareness") variant notably features FBCB2 communications platform for tracking hostile and friendly units nearby and a thermal scope for a .50 caliber machine gun, which improves the tank's effectiveness against hostile infantry in urban warfare.

According to Kyiv-based think tank Defense Express, the fact that, against expectations, Ukraine gets the older M1A1 version of the tank is not bad news. The M1A1 SA version Ukraine will get is generally as good as the M1A2 SEPv2 modernization introduced in the 2010s

However, Ukraine’s tanks will not come equipped with third-generation depleted uranium armor because of the U.S. export ban on such...

..."When you compare the Abrams to other western tanks, it's just a very difficult task — not for the crew but for those who support it," says Mark Hertling, the retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General and the former commander of the 1st Armored Division....

And in this regard, from Hertling's perspective, the Ukrainian military currently has shortcomings with supply chain management. This remains the biggest concern for the retired general, who is deeply supportive of Ukraine's war effort.

For instance, when it comes to engine repairs, M1s variants are powered by a singular integrated propulsion unit titled Full-Up Power Pack (FUPP), a combination of a Honeywell AGT1500 turbine engine and an Allison X1100-3B transmission.

And since it's a jet engine, air filters must be cleaned every 12 hours via startup and cool-down procedures.

"All those things can be taught to the crew, but if ever they make a mistake — and they will — it blows a million-dollar engine that can't be repaired in the field," Hertling says.

"It has to be taken out of the vehicle, shipped back over the supply line, and replaced with a new engine. You can ask why can't it be repaired in the field. I guess if you have a bunch of jet mechanics in your field location where the tanks are, you could. But that's not what the U.S. military does. We pull the engine and ship it back to depot-level maintenance, and they repair both the engine and the transmission."

_________

https://kyivindependent.com/what-will-it-take-for-ukraine-to-maintain-and-operate-the-m1-abrams/

 

Edited May 31, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[Bearstronaut]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Graham is a political weasel, very good at feeling the political winds and sailing with them. Anything he says is only designed to make him look good, statesmanlike, irregardless of any vetting by the Ukrainians. 

What they have probably done is used him to amplify the propaganda campaign, by telling him something Very Very Secret, and swearing him to Biggest Pinky Swear that he won't divulge, No Sir,  You Have My Word. 

He's the proverbial political sock puppet, and being used as such. 

Graham is a weasel but he's also not an idiot. He spent over 30 years in the Air Force and Air Force Reserves and was on the Armed Forces Committee from 2003 to 2019. He's always been a foreign policy hawk and I think Zelensky probably told him the truth about their upcoming offensive.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

If that is what make you sad and only thing you thought about, pack some tranquilizer medicines and try a walk in Warsaw, Bełżec, Majdanek or myriad other places fathers and brothers of those "killed children" crossed. Or see empitness of Jewish quarter here in Lublin, where entire vibrant city stood- and now is a grass field with single lamp. Even better, one could reach for some memoirs of III Reich slaves, who also died by thousands in those air raids. Very different picture will emerge than this cheap sentimentalism, I assure you.

Btw., since you have visible inclination to levell victims with perpetrators, when war end try visit place in Kyiv called Babyi Yar. It was bombed by Russians early in the current war, where family including small girl burned alive in a car. Quite symbolic connection between two wars.

Back to the topic.

Folks, keep proportions here, ok? Several small drones with 20kg warheads (or even without them) flew near windows of botox-covered lovers of some Russian oligarchs and some cry as it would be carpet bombing of Japan. It's war, let's move this discussions on moral high ground when something size of Iskanders start to fall on Russian cities daily.

More interesting question is if USA gave green light for this or not. If they did, I think it speaks volumes how our perception toward Ukraine changed positivelly.

Seriously folks…we are talking about a demonstration strike against a rabid aggressor with less tonnage than one or two of the thousands of bombs dropped every day in WWII. I know it’s tempting to make discussions of the war about us….but it isn’t about us.

[Harmon Rabb]

After a year and a half of observing this war I really agree with Ben Hodges. He has became my favorite former high ranking officer to comment on this war.

For what it is worth, my gut feeling says that the AFU will eventually get ATACMS. Like they will receive all the other kit that at first the folks in D.C. did not want to provide, like HIMARS, F-16s and Abrams tanks.

[Splinty]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Graham is a political weasel, very good at feeling the political winds and sailing with them. Anything he says is only designed to make him look good, statesmanlike, irregardless of any vetting by the Ukrainians. 

What they have probably done is used him to amplify the propaganda campaign, by telling him something Very Very Secret, and swearing him to Biggest Pinky Swear that he won't divulge, No Sir,  You Have My Word. 

He's the proverbial political sock puppet, and being used as such. 

So in other words, he's no different than any other politician.