How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seedorf81]

Maybe a misunderstanding from my side, but I thought you disagreed with my post on armament-races. Mainly because you used the phrase "not aimed directly at you", and the fact that you described a big difference in China-US armament build-up and China's agressive stance.

It seemed to me that you wanted to state that if one party arms up big time, and the other doesn't that it also (thereby countering my earlier statement) will lead to war. I.e. China invading Taiwan.

Which may or may not happen, but didn't happen yet, so I mentioned that.

 

If I misunderstood your argument, I apologize.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

Well.. what I learned from history, is that armament-races (except for the nucleair one) usually LEAD to "great power wars".

That an often quoted view, but mistaken, as it gets the causation wrong. Armament races usually occur in the course of great power rivalries, and great power rivalries often lead to great power wars. Thus, armament races and great power wars are not in causal relation to each other, but they are both co-effects of great power rivalries (albeit occuring asynchronically)

[Seedorf81]

2 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That an often quoted view, but mistaken, as it gets the causation wrong. Armament races usually occur in the course of great power rivalries, and great power rivalries often lead to great power wars. Thus, armament races and great power wars are not in causal relation to each other, but they are both co-effects of great power rivalries (albeit occuring asynchronically)

Again, I did not say "cause". See my "chicken and egg" followup-post.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

To the degree this speculation is true tells us a lot about how badly stripped the frontiers are of forces even back in September 2022.  It seems to me that if they hadn't rushed the Fall conscripts into positions within days even the thin facade of a defended border might have disappeared. 

This confirms that the borders were stripped of the soldiers, but does not necessarily mean the RUS had no soldiers other than conscripts. They could have decided to use conscripts in order not to take reserves away from their current locations, but tap a new source of manpower. That would have been smart. We cannot count on RUS taking the stupid decision always.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Again, I did not say "cause". See my "chicken and egg" followup-post.

Sorry, I saw the word "lead to" and thought it implied a cause and effect relationship. I will read deeper into your chicken and egg posts.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

12 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Some details regarding Russian defences from raid- it seems one of main roads to Belgorod from UA was guarded by platoon-sized conscripts.

Those lads must have been training in Belarus near the Pripyat region and partaking heavily from the local flora and fauna. Still, quite impressive.

[Beleg85]

Short article about logistics behind weapon supplies to Ukraine. Nothing particulary new, just statement US logistics rediscovered its Cold War mojo.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/arms-ukraine-flow-30-faster-us-relearns-cold-war-skills/386704/

Edited May 25, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

I did not say "cause".

Politicians, fears, nationalism, idealism and even economics and a lot of other reasons cause armsraces, yes. But buying/producing more weapons usually urges the "other side" to do the same, and then someone, somewhere, somehow sees or fears that there will be a disadvantageous imbalance, and decides "to strike now, before it is too late".

Chicken and egg conundrum, probably.   

An excellent example is the relationship between Britain and Germany in the lead up with WW1.  By all rights: diplomatic, economic and political Germany and Britain should have been allies in WW1; however, the Kaisers very ill advised pursuit of naval parity with Britain led to a costly arms race that shaped relations between these two nations.  

Arms races can be the spark that trigger conflict moving into a violent collision stage, but “war” is not binary, it is a process on a spectrum.  Arms races can be considered preliminary moves or shaping that may or may not lead to open warfare.  The counter example is the Cold War where the US effectively won the conflict without direct military collision by forcing their opponent to spend more economy could sustain.  Here the arms race was the war.  

As to the current situation with China, the issue is less arms race and more one of “who is willing to sacrifice?”  China is hungry, aggressive and smart (as opposed to Russia who only had the first two).  The US is highly divided, entitled and very self absorbed.  It is also extremely powerful and rich but whether it can focus that power and will remains the central unanswered question of the early 21st century.  I do not think an arms race will doom the US and China into a conflagration, but it definitely is part of the intensification of competition between these two powers.  The biggest threat to the West right now is not Chinese arms, it is US apathy versus extremism.

Edited May 25, 2023 by The_Capt

[Seedorf81]

1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Sorry, I saw the word "lead to" and thought it implied a cause and effect relationship. I will read deeper into your chicken and egg posts.

Also again, no worries, mate.

Maybe it is because I am a non-native English speaker and am I using the language in an inappropriate way?

I thought there's a difference between "Christmas can lead to an increase in traffic accidents", versus "Christmas causes traffic accidents." The first quote can be true, because at Christmas more people use more alcohol and therefore more drunk drivers on the roads, but the second quote can never be true as far as I understand it.

I know this has nothing to do with Ukraine, but it seems language-troubles do create misunderstandings now and then.

So real Americans and British and Canadians and Australians (etc), please be considerate with the rest of us, the lingo-strugglers.

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It was enough to penetrate 8 kms inside Russia and they already fired up "1812 Protocol". Maybe now they will raze to the ground everything on 700 kms road to the capital and wait for winter. Usually worked.

Exactly, this always begs the question "and what if the enemy did not show up?".

Unfortunately, nobody can resist the temptation of squishing just a bit more of the temptingly squishable opolcheniye , whether under the hooves of the horses or Panzer tracks, and end up squarely in the devastated region trying to survive the worst winter of the century on scorched tree bark.

[Heirloom_Tomato]

This is the transcript from an interview conducted on the CBC Radio program As it Happens. I heard it while out in the field the other evening  working ground. It doesn't offer anything new this group hasn't seen or heard yet but does show how the mainstream media in Canada is covering the story. CH stands for Chris Howden and NK for Nil Koksal, the hosts of the show.

RUSSIA INTERNAL ATTACKS

Guest: Ilya Ponomarev

CH: Yesterday, a group of pro-Ukrainian soldiers took the war home to Russia. The Free Russia Legion is a paramilitary group claiming to be made up of Russian volunteers who have taken up arms for Ukraine. They crossed the border and seized villages in the Belgorod region of Southern Russia. Today, the Russian Ministry of Defence said the forces had been pushed back across the border. But members of the Legion say they're still in Russian territory. And they intend to stay there. Ilya Ponomarev is a former Russian politician who now lives in Ukraine. He says he's the political representative of the Free Russia Legion. We reached him in Kyiv.

NK: Ilya, the Russian government is saying that it has pushed the Free Russia Legion soldiers out of Russian territory. Is that the truth?

ILYA PONOMAREV: No, that's not true. That's not true. It's the other way around. The Legion of Freedom of Russia. And the Russian volunteer corps, they have liberated more territories. Right now, all together, the frontline there in Belgorod region already is wider than 40 kilometres.

NK: What kind of resistance, if any, are they meeting? Can you, can you paint a picture for us of, of what they're doing and what kind of resistance they're facing?

IP: Right now, this resistance looks very much disorganized. Because the original resistance that was put during the initial put was crushed. Right now, there are helicopters, attack helicopters, flying, and they're getting more and more units around. But the question is that police officers and all other, like, internal forces, they are, they are not fighting. They are very, very reluctant. They're afraid. And they rather tend to flee. So, right now, they are mobilizing the 74th Brigade of, of Russian armed forces, which they are relocating from Ukraine. And that, that would be a more serious thing to me. But still, it's equipped with a lot of mobilized troops which are not very efficient in fighting as we saw in Ukraine.

NK: At this stage, so if I'm understanding you correctly, your soldiers are meeting a disorganized group of Russians, is what you're saying? In some cases, they're running away from you?

IP: Yes. So, quite a lot. And the Russian military were all obviously not ready for this attack. They were thinking that because there is international consensus that Ukraine should not attack Russian territory, that they have nothing to fear. And so, all the capable forces, they already relocated to Ukraine. And because right now, it's not Ukrainians who are attacking Russia, it's Russians. And Russians did not make any deals with the West. So, they're liberating its own soil, its own country, and they're off the limits. And that's actually the main military meaning of this attack that Russia would have to relocate forces back from Ukraine. And that would obviously help Ukrainian offensive.

NK: Are you doing this with the permission and support of Ukraine?

IP: I would rather say with awareness of Ukrainian authorities, obviously, because the units are officially part of the international Legion, which is an integral part of Ukrainian army, but they are very much autonomous. And they planned this operation by themselves. They are doing the operation by themselves. And there is not a single Ukrainian soldier which is right now in Russia.

NK: Many people might just be learning about Free Russia Legion as we're speaking, as they're listening to us speak. So, who are its members? Who do you represent?

IP: The members have three different origin. One group, is former Russian military, which were sent to fight in the Ukraine, but which decided to switch sides because they were fooled by the Russian regime. There are POWs which were also captured, and then they realized that, again, Russian propaganda was telling them lies and they decided to join the Legion. So that's one group. The second group is Russians who are living in Ukraine, were married or was working in the Ukraine but didn't have Russian passports. But they wanted to defend Ukraine. And so, they volunteered to go into the army. And so, they were redirected to the Legion. And the third group are Russian political activists who, unlike many of their peers, who were just complaining about Putin, decided to put up a fight, and they went into Ukraine through European countries and joined the Legion. Basically, these are three equal groups.

NK: What's their long-term goal there?

IP: The long-term goal is to change the regime in Russia, to dismantle the empire, to build a new democratic country. But most importantly, it's to get rid of this system because they would not be satisfied if Ukraine would just liberate its territory, but the West would permit for somebody like Prime Minister Mishustin to stay in power. They want fundamental reform, and they want that Russia would never be an empire again.

NK: Are you concerned that the Legion's operations might upset Ukraine's allies in the West and cause them to, to pull their support because they didn't want, you know, incursion into Russia?

IP: First of all, we already heard what Americans are saying in this regard, and everything is fine here. But, at the end of the day, no other nation should prohibit Russians to fight for their own freedom in their own country. It's just not fair that Ukrainians are fighting for, fighting for a free Russia. And that's why I don't expect any of international allies to be able to say something against Russians. Go and fight against them.

NK: What message is the Legion trying to send to Russia?

IP: Join us. The repatriation is near, and we are capable of defeating this regime. It's not as dangerous as it seems. They are weak. They are about to fall. And we're coming.

NK: Ilya, thank you for your time.

IP: Thank you for having me.

CH: Ilya Ponomarev is a former Russian politician who calls himself the political representative of the Free Russia Legion, which launched attacks inside Russia yesterday. He's in Kyiv.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Heirloom_Tomato

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Sure, but let's at least be honest about it instead of some people saying "Oh, they are not national socialists - they are socialist nationalists, completely different thing" or "Oh, boys will be boys, they are just having fun in the good old Ukrainian style".

When we look at something like AZOV, I don't know how many of their fighters are actually far-right or nazis. But it does seem like there are some. They have been fighting really hard, and that can be exchanged for political power after the war.

I agree that there is no merit in trying to add a rosey tint to anything from Ukraine, like they are fairies. At the same time they are fighting/defending in a war of aggression against their country and so far they, incl. AZOV, seem to be behaving rather disciplined all things concerned.

Anyway Ukraine will certainly have enough to deal with after the war. This might be one of those issues. 

But other countries in Europe also have such type of people and they are (unfortunately ) also allowed to vote. They can't just lock them all up. Plus like you say we/I don't know really what are the political goals, if any, of such groups and how strong their backing is.

Personally I think the subject is moot and mostly a way to whatabout diverge from the real issue. Ukraine will have to deal with it, but in no way shape or form is there any justification from it for the war against Ukraine (ps not saying that you say it is).

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

We could compare to Afghanistan, also invaded by the Russians (Soviets) back in the eighties. Surely it doesn't matter that the local freedom fighters that we support with weapons and money are a bit too much into an extremist religion? After the Soviets are kicked out, probably they will cut their beards and Afghanistan will turn into a free, democratic, and prosperous country...

 

I don't think Afghanistan compares well to Ukraine. But yes if Russia would in fact be occupying Ukraine and we would arm and train some extremist insurgency group fighting against Russia, that might bite back in the future.

But we are supporting the democratically elected nation state of Ukraine, not Azov. How Ukraine deals with Azov is their problem as long as they don't go ethnical  cleansing and stuff like that. But you and I know how fast the support would stop in that case, as well as the prospect of joining NATO / EU. 

 

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

I thought there's a difference between "Christmas can lead to an increase in traffic accidents", versus "Christmas causes traffic accidents." The first quote can be true, because at Christmas more people use more alcohol and therefore more drunk drivers on the roads, but the second quote can never be true as far as I understand it.

I cannot offer a native speakers' perspective, but to me it looks more like a philosophical than language point. For example, in legal usage if event X increases the probability of event Y, and in a particular case event Y occurred after event X had occurred, then the event X is considered to have caused the event Y. At least for some legal situations. So both the example you described using the word "lead to" and the one you described with the word "cause" could be understood as causation - in principle, and not because of the words used.

[Seedorf81]

15 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I cannot offer a native speakers' perspective, but to me it looks more like a philosophical than language point. For example, in legal usage if event X increases the probability of event Y, and in a particular case event Y occurred after event X had occurred, then the event X is considered to have caused the event Y. At least for some legal situations. So both the example you described using the word "lead to" and the one you described with the word "cause" could be understood as causation - in principle, and not because of the words used.

Oh my God, from now on I need to worry not only about my language-deficiencies, but about the philosophical and legal ones also!

Edited May 25, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Lethaface]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, time to move on from two topics that have exceeded their relevance to this thread:

1.  Ukraine has a fascist problem that needs to be addressed, but so does every nation and so citizens of those nations need to be careful about throwing stones.  Especially if they are fascists trying to support Putin by parroting Russian fascist propaganda.

2.  What the merits of A-10s are/aren't on the battlefields of today.  I think the issues have been presented well enough, but should be saved until the Ukrainians actually ask for A-10s (if they ever do).

Steve

Noticed this now

[Huba]

Not surprised, but happy to hear this confirmed. Hopefully these will come equipped with Meteor.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That an often quoted view, but mistaken, as it gets the causation wrong. Armament races usually occur in the course of great power rivalries, and great power rivalries often lead to great power wars. Thus, armament races and great power wars are not in causal relation to each other, but they are both co-effects of great power rivalries (albeit occuring asynchronically)

Symptomatic of and reactive to both internal and external processes. 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Not surprised, but happy to hear this confirmed. Hopefully these will come equipped with Meteor.

WTH, Perun has made inroads,  I see... 

[Huba]

More good news:

Edited May 25, 2023 by Huba

[Maciej Zwolinski]

33 minutes ago, Huba said:

More good news:

It is unlikely to have done serious harm, though. The Russians themselves were gloating about the engagement, even they are not that stupid to do this if the ship eventually gets sunk or very visibly damaged.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

It is unlikely to have done serious harm, though. The Russians themselves were gloating about the engagement, even they are not that stupid to do this if the ship eventually gets sunk or very visibly damaged.

Really hard to say without further data. It seems ship was able to continue moving under it's own steam, but if the explosion was as powerful as at the other video, it couldn't be good to the electronic mission equipment it carries.
In any case, the message was delivered that Black Sea is not a safe place for Russian Navy, even further away from UA coast.  And it will get much worse when F-16s and/ or other aircraft capable of launching anti-ship missiles arrive in a few months.

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

It is unlikely to have done serious harm, though. The Russians themselves were gloating about the engagement, even they are not that stupid to do this if the ship eventually gets sunk or very visibly damaged.

I guess we will learn soon:

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

y'know, if there's any one thing that contributed to Ukraine lasting this long, it was the fortification of the Donbass front. Russia has lost tens upon tens of thousands trying to break through since Zero day and with nothin but small gains to show for it.

 

To give Russia some credit (hey, someone other than a pro-Russian has to once and a while!), they took this into account when they invaded.  Their original path to "liberating" Luhansk and Donetsk was to attack *around* those defenses and obligate Ukrainian forces to retreat or be destroyed.  They never, ever anticipated having to frontal assault those lines because they never anticipated their fantasy plan would fail.

Their plan worked a little bit.  They took most of Luhansk because they attacked from the prewar international boundaries where defenses were thin, they took a big chunk of Donetsk by coming in from Crimea.  However, the attacks from the north were soundly defeated (decimated even) while the attacks from the south stalled out due to lack of resources (including losses).  Therefore, the prewar Donbas line was not threatened from the rear.

Just as Russia had no Plan B for securing all of its maximalist goals (everything east of the Dnepr, destroyed Ukrainian government, etc.), it also had no Plan B for securing its minimal goals (full possession of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts).  The failed flank attacks left the warmongers in the Kremlin in a really tight spot.  All they had as an option was a frontal assault which, they had already determined, would be extremely bloody.  Since it was either that or giving up, they went with the frontal assault.

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 5/23/2023 at 4:14 AM, Maciej Zwolinski said:

BTW, the Ukrainians are reporting crazy numbers of destroyed RUS artillery. Yesterday it was 40/day or something similar. It used to be 1/10th of that number earlier in this war. Any ideas what happened and if those figures are  at all reliable?

I haven't noticed an uptick in artillery systems on Oryx. But then again there may just be a delay as they verify photos, or it may be that I don't scroll down to the artillery section often enough to see the pattern. Also, artillery is probably less likely to get photographed anyway. It seems plausible that they would conduct more counter-battery operations as they prepare for the offensive, but I'm not aware of anything that can confirm it.

[Eddy]

Zaluzhny looks fine to me. Wasn't there some talk about him being in intensive care or something?