How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

So the Kremlin is no too fractured to more or less competently make the best of a bad situation? i think this flows back to Putin being all tactics, all the time, without a strategy to actually win.

 

I think they are paralyzed because there’s no longer any elite input to Putin about the direction of the war or the country. He’s gone late season Cersei with the remnant undead security organs of the Soviet Union ominously hovering to smite naysayers. Because there isn’t really discussion, things are reduced to whatever imagination is left in the grey husk that is the visionary part of Putin’s character. And so, the shamble towards 1917 continues. 

[Beleg85]

[never mind, probably author missed the context and Prig meaned Shoigu not Putin]

Edited May 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kinophile]

Putin can certainly take down Priggy whenever he needs to but man, he better not miss.

A simple arrest won't do it,  unless the MoD are fully in on it.

Prig stays close to front,  he's constantly with his wagnerites and speaks with them directly,  every day,  in person or on Telegram.  Putin has nowhere near that personal connection to his forces. 

In a direct Putin v Prig contest, if Prig survives the first attack,  my money is on Him. 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Putin can certainly take down Priggy whenever he needs to but man, he better not miss.

A simple arrest won't do it,  unless the MoD are fully in on it.

Prig stays close to front,  he's constantly with his wagnerites and speaks with them directly,  every day,  in person or on Telegram.  Putin has nowhere near that personal connection to his forces. 

In a direct Putin v Prig contest, if Prig survives the first attack,  my money is on Him. 

 

What are we betting?

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

 

Ther

There was one more.

Is this picture of the Bren carrier real, and from today?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is this picture of the Bren carrier real, and from today?

It is not even a Bren carrier.  That would be giving the Western Allies some credit for helping them win the war.  It is a T-27.  The funny bit is this was based on a British design

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

- To go light and wheeled was likely a conscious decision.  Even in our wildest fantasies Russia is not out of enough tanks or IFVs to make a decent parade - we have seen trainloads of these.  They could have polished up and gotten a couple thousand up and running if they really wanted to.  They likely would not have been combat ready but rolling and fresh paint etc.  So why did Russia make that conscious decision?  Same goes for length of vehicle parade.  Plenty of troops marching by, might have wanted to stress software and not the hardware.

This was indeed a "conscious decision", but we should not underestimate how much reality played into that decision.  For example, I just made a conscious decision to not visit Mars as I said I would, but it isn't because I have the ability and just don't want to use it

Let's step back and look at the entire May 9 celebrations.  First thing to do is recognize that this year it is singular "celebration" and not dozens all over the country.  There were plenty of marching crunchies on display in Moscow, but how does it compare to previous years?  Just as many?  I don't know.  What I am fairly sure of is one of the reasons for cancelling the other parades was to ensure they had at least one parade with a reasonable number of marching boots.

The other question to ask is who are these soldiers marching in the parade?  Combat troops?  I'm guessing largely conscripts that Putin can't use at the front anyway.  A couple of weeks of learning to march properly is all conscripts need to look like soldiers for the casual observer.  If that is accurate, then revisit my previous point and mix this into the assessment.

Skipping heavy tracked armor is likely due to a bunch of factors including a lack of manpower and logistics.  Painting vehicles to have them be parade ready isn't a big deal.  They certainly have a parade's number to use and Conscript Konstantin can paint a tank with minimal instruction even without a beating (though he probably got one anyway).  But the tank transporters and skilled operators to get everything to the parade on time and functioning through to the end likely means removing capabilities that are currently busy getting stuff ready for and to the front.  Mmm... maybe 2 week disruption?  With the counter offensive looming it could have been calculated that they couldn't spare what was needed.

Previous comments about Putin not wanting to risk another Amata breakdown or highlight the fact they aren't at the front is pretty solid thinking.

 

To summarize, this parade was for internal consumption more this year than any other since Soviet times.  It probably did what it needed to do on that count.  However, it would appear it was only possible to create this performance by consolidating and omitting traditional displays.  Whether the average Russian figures this out or not is difficult to assess.  Regardless of how it is viewed internally, it's pretty clear the rest of the clear eyed world sees it for what it is... a shadow of what it used to be due to the war's losses.

As evidence is the fun people are having with it:

Steve

[dan/california]

Is it just me, or does Lukashenko look rather less than well in this picture?

[riptides]

34 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is this picture of the Bren carrier real, and from today?

I did not think it rained on the parade today. There should be humor in that sentence somewhere.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This was indeed a "conscious decision", but we should not underestimate how much reality played into that decision.  For example, I just made a conscious decision to not visit Mars as I said I would, but it isn't because I have the ability and just don't want to use it

I seriously doubt Russia could not drum up a few dozen tanks and/IFVs, get them rolling and a new paint job and drag em to Moscow.  

I am reticent to read into the lack of these vehicles on display as directly linked to Russian shortages due to losses in the war.  The losses Russia have suffered are seen in the erosion of the entire Russian operational system to take credible military capability and project it into combat with trained pers and sustain them there…let alone translate that into something that actually compresses Ukrainian options while expanding their own.

Pulling a bunch of tanks out of storage and having them driven down a street is a pretty low bar.  And if they had done that, I also would not have been getting worried that somehow it showed Russia still had limitless capacity either. Now your point on tank transporters has teeth but last I checked the Russian rail lines are still working and that seems to be the primary mode of transport for these heavies.  We have seen rail cars loaded with kit, so we know they can get some stuff around.  Ukraine has not had the freedom of action to attack Russian strategic logistics beyond some errant explosions and “accidents”.

Frankly we really don’t need a stubby parade attendance to tell us that Russia is bleeding out militarily, there is evidence of that pretty much all along the line.  However, we are talking scale here - 20-30 tanks on a parade are not going to make a difference one way or the other when one is trying to hold onto 800kms of front lines.  It is the accumulation of attrition that has led Russia into this mess. 

 Push, pulling, or dragging to Moscow is still likely within capability - hell we have not even seen a T-14 in action so we know the 5 or 6 they built for parades are still out there.  I personally think it was spun specifically and deliberately, because that is where Russia seems to be right now.  Spinning is about all they have left because their offensive has petered out and they are waiting to see where the hammer falls.

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I seriously doubt Russia could not drum up a few dozen tanks and/IFVs, get them rolling and a new paint job and drag em to Moscow.  

I am reticent to read into the lack of these vehicles on display as directly linked to Russian shortages due to losses in the war.  The losses Russia have suffered are seen in the erosion of the entire Russian operational system to take credible military capability and project it into combat with trained pers and sustain them there…let alone translate that into something that actually compresses Ukrainian options while expanding their own.

Pulling a bunch of tanks out of storage and having them driven down a street is a pretty low bar.  And if they had done that, I also would not have been getting worried that somehow it showed Russia still had limitless capacity either. Now your point on tank transporters has teeth but last I checked the Russian rail lines are still working and that seems to be the primary mode of transport for these heavies.  We have seen rail cars loaded with kit, so we know they can get some stuff around.  Ukraine has not had the freedom of action to attack Russian strategic logistics beyond some errant explosions and “accidents”.

Frankly we really don’t need a stubby parade attendance to tell us that Russia is bleeding out militarily, there is evidence of that pretty much all along the line.  However, we are talking scale here - 20-30 tanks on a parade are not going to make a difference one way or the other when one is trying to hold onto 800kms of front lines.  It is the accumulation of attrition that has led Russia into this mess. 

 Push, pulling, or dragging to Moscow is still likely within capability - hell we have not even seen a T-14 in action so we know the 5 or 6 they built for parades are still out there.  I personally think it was spun specifically and deliberately, because that is where Russia seems to be right now.  Spinning is about all they have left because their offensive has petered out and they are waiting to see where the hammer falls.

I'm less interested in the quantity than in the slap dash quality of it. This year's parade came off as a result of a not terribly interested committee who didn't want to take any risks. There was little in the way of substantive messaging, only a sort of backhanded way of acknowledging the state of the war and Putin's speech was a fairly tepid example of the form. It is claimed that the couple of weeks culminating in the parade was about catalyzing the Russian masses behind the war. If so, I thought it very weak tea.

[DesertFox]

28 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is it just me, or does Lukashenko look rather less than well in this picture?

Nope, he appears to feel a little unwell...

 

 

[FancyCat]

Ain't no way prig is gonna win against Putin, more powerful figures than him bow to Putin, and recall Girkin? He's still standing despite criticizing Putin.

If anything I'm more wondering if this is just formalities, just window dressing criticism. Stuff that is for public consumption, or to satisfy groups like the hardcore nationalists without risk of actually bringing up someone to challenge Putin.

Stuff like the noises about the FSB being cleared out never came true.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I seriously doubt Russia could not drum up a few dozen tanks and/IFVs, get them rolling and a new paint job and drag em to Moscow.  

I seriously doubt it too, which is why I said as much   The glib commentary of "they didn't have enough tanks to put on parade" is out of ignorance or getting a laugh at Russia's expense.  That's not what I just argued.

What I'm saying is that overall the May 9th celebrations have all the hallmarks of operating under significant constraints due to the war.  Sure, they could have put dozens of tanks and IFVs into the parade, but they deliberately chose not to in contrast to every single parade going back to the start.  I'd bet all future CM development revenues that it was a decision they felt they HAD to do rather than WANTED to do. 

The actual factual reasons for the Kremlin's decisions are not really relevant, though fun to speculate upon.  We should be focused on the result and not the cause.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nope, he appears to feel a little unwell...

 

 

Maybe he didn't bring his own tea and water, instead relying upon what Putin provided?  I kid, of course.

Steve

[billbindc]

 

Worth noting that paying too much attention to the Moscow parade tends to distort the larger picture.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Worth noting that paying too much attention to the Moscow parade tends to distort the larger picture.

Dara's thread does highlight something though, conscripts are the only meaningful reserve Putin has. It is noteworthy that he would rather continue to flounder on the battlefields of Ukraine than take the political risk of committing them. This implies Putin does think backing for the war is anything close to solid. My read, worth what you paid.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Is it just me, or does Lukashenko look rather less than well in this picture?

what could possibly go wrong when among your friends?

 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

[never mind, probably author missed the context and Prig meaned Shoigu not Putin]

"Dedushka" is obviously Putin. Many in Russia - "liberals" and some disappointed "vatniks" in joke call Putin "ded" ("grandpa") or "bunker ded"

Seriously sicking Lukashenko and Putin (or his double) on parade. Classical Soviet schizophrenic gerontocratia. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

18 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Over to @Haiduk on that one! 

Nope - directly to Zaluzhnyi only ). Nobody of Ukr experts never say about even approx assesments of our forces. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

Worth noting that paying too much attention to the Moscow parade tends to distort the larger picture.

Well, the Moscow one is the most important as it is the one that Putin is personally endorsing (perhaps through his double) along with other dignitaries.  It should be the best of all of them.  In terms of armor, it wasn't.  Though the amount of armor spotted in the other parades still reinforces the same story which is they were largely left out.

In my view Dara Massicot's observations reinforce the discussion about the Moscow parade instead of contesting it.  If anything it makes the omissions in Moscow even more curious.

Steve

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, Eddy said:

At long last a comment from publicity shy Prigozhin!

He blames units of 72nd motor-rifle brigade of 3rd Army Corps that they abandoned positions. Likely this was in Sako i Vancetti village area, about 14 km north from Bakhmut, where presumably UKR troops had advance 1-2 days ago,  

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

What are we betting?

Let's use classic delicacies from our respective home lands -  1 kg of Irish potatoes (me)  or a 1 bag of scorpions (you).

Delivery after the 2nd Russian Civil War ends, with Prig either (1) strawberry jam under the threads of Gerasimov's T35s,  or (2)Ensconced in the Kremlin and committing sexual acts with Putin's severed head live on Telegram. 

Let's say Dec 1 as 2027 as a deadline. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Let's use classic delicacies from our respective home lands -  1 kg of Irish potatoes (me)  or a 1 bag of scorpions (you).

Delivery after the 2nd Russian Civil War ends, with Prig either (1) strawberry jam under the threads of Gerasimovs tanks,  or (2)Ensconced in the Kremlin and commiting sexual acts with Putin's severed head live on Telegram. 

Let's say Dec 1 as 2027 as a deadline. 

And Peng shall judge.