How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

You are absolutely correct, Rome was a Republic before Julius Cesar proclaimed himself (or his Legions proclaimed him, I don’t remember which) Emperor.

Big Julie NEVER proclaimed himself emperor. Not even close.

His adopted heir, Augustus, didn't, either -- he was Princeps -- 'first man' or 'first speaker' (he got to speak first in the Senate so the other Senators would know which way to vote - if they wanted to survive) and had 'maius imperium' and 'tibunician potestas' ('superior command' and 'tribunician immunity & veto') which made extremely powerful, but he very carefully did not declare himself Rex/Emperor.

The Principate lasted till AD 284, only then being replaced by the Dominate ... where the Princeps became 'Dominus' (Lord) and Emperor in name as well as fact.

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article about a Russian FSO officer who defected to the West back in October.  He worked for Putin since 2009 and had fairly extensive contact with him over the whole period of time.  The main takeaway from this is that he also views Putin 2022 as being very different than Putin 2009.  The current Putin is paranoid and isolated, getting his information 2nd hand at best.

https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-security-officer-karakulov-war-criminal-ukraine/32349423.html

Steve

 A great thing about that guy is he's probably given the Western agencies a very detailed insight into how Putin communicates.  Not just the systems but his process,  methodologies,  routines,  rhythms and habits. Those kind of patterns can really break open a system. The beauty is that Putin will now change some things,  his people will change a lot of things, but the underlying mindset will never change and once you know what data points to look for any pattern becomes obvious. And patterns are always a weakness,  because they're predictable. 

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Big Julie NEVER proclaimed himself emperor. Not even close.

His adopted heir, Augustus, didn't, either -- he was Princeps -- 'first man' or 'first speaker' (he got to speak first in the Senate so the other Senators would know which way to vote - if they wanted to survive) and had 'maius imperium' and 'tibunician potestas' ('superior command' and 'tribunician immunity & veto') which made extremely powerful, but he very carefully did not declare himself Rex/Emperor.

The Principate lasted till AD 284, only then being replaced by the Dominate ... where the Princeps became 'Dominus' (Lord) and Emperor in name as well as fact.

Thanks for this. And if any of you are about to start talking about the 'end of the Republic' fair warning that I take few prisoners on that topic.

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Thanks for this. And if any of you are about to start talking about the 'end of the Republic' fair warning that I take few prisoners on that topic.

Ahhh but he did get close though... That was the whole point of Oops My Dagger Slipped Oh Dearie Me There It Goes Again And Again And Again... They were terrified he would declare himself King or similar. Not out of some dear love for the Republic but because then he could officially do whatever the heck he wanted to any of them. So they definitively applied the First Law of Monarchy*. 

En Guarde,  sir! 

 

 

*If you strike at the King you better not miss...

Edited April 5, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ahhh but he did get close though... That was the whole point of Oops My Dagger Slipped Oh Dearie Me There It Goes Again And Again And Again... They were terrified he would declare himself King or similar. Not out of some dear love for the Republic but because then he could officially do whatever the heck he wanted to any of them. So they definitively applied the First Law of Monarchy*. 

En Guarde,  sir! 

 

 

*If you strike at the King you better not miss...

What happened with Caesar wasn't about what he might have done...violent one man rule had already been done far more brutally by Sulla and others before him. In fact, Caesar was notable for lack of bloody mindedness when winning elite struggles in Roman politics. That is partly why Brutus and others were there to kill him in the first place. 

What was happening was a culmination of the inherent stresses in Roman governance between the old Senatorial elites who were able to dominate early Rome and the populists like Caesar, who had figured out that in an imperial setting there were other avenues to more successfully dominate the Roman scene. If you want to pick a good starting point, go back to Marius, his reforms and the Jugurthine War. 

And sorry in advance Steve for going so far off topic. I imagine I will be tempted to until the rasputitsa dries up.

Edited April 5, 2023 by billbindc

[Kinophile]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

What happened with Caesar wasn't about what he might have done...violent one man rule had already been done far more brutally by Sulla and others before him. In fact, Caesar was notable for lack of bloody mindedness when winning elite struggles in Roman politics. That is partly why Brutus and others were there to kill him in the first place. 

What was happening was a culmination of the inherent stresses in Roman governance between the old Senatorial elites who were able to dominate early Rome and the populists like Caesar, who had figured out that in an imperial setting there were other avenues to more successfully dominate the Roman scene. If you want to pick a good starting point, go back to Marius, his reforms and the Jugurthine War. 

And sorry in advance Steve for going so far off topic. I imagine I will be tempted to until the rasputitsa dries up.

Yes very true

[dan/california]

Sulla's rather serious problem was that after winning a nasty civil war, and quite few foreign ones as well, he was in charge of an army and an incipient empire Rome couldn't afford to pay for. He rather ruthlessly extracted the the money from the losers of said civil war. The historians have not been terribly kind about that. Fortuitously for Rome it conquered a lot of very profitable territory shortly after that, and was able to fund the Empire for a couple of reasonably pleasant centuries after that on the backs of people who were distant enough their dissatisfaction could be ignored.

There are some similarities with how Moscow treats the rest of Russia. How far you are from the imperial center is directly correlated with whether or not the government gives a bleep if you freeze or starve to death.  

[Battlefront.com]

Guys, please STOP talking about Rome or the different shades of democratic institutions.  It is wildly off topic.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Lol copy 

[billbindc]

Parebo, imperator.

[Peregrine]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Guys, please STOP talking about Rome or the different shades of democratic institutions.  It is wildly off topic.

Steve

Agreed. FFS. What have the Romans ever done for us?

I am sorry I just couldn't help myself.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Agreed. FFS. What have the Romans ever done for us?

I am sorry I just couldn't help myself.

I am sure Graham Hancock has a book in the works saying that romans settled in Australia, where they would of course have somehow changed the course of Australian history. 

Back to the war:  some excellent posts folks, thx.  Good take on the critical big picture, where RU has expended it's resources while UKR (we believe) has husbanded theirs.  When the ground dries the entire front must be covered, much of it with very poor quality forces, could be quite a wild ride for old Putler.

Summary today from this fella really good.  Some footage I hadn't seen.  And a great cartoon at the bottom.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/4/2161994/-Ukraine-Update-In-Bakhmut-an-unusual-weapon-put-to-use-with-devastating-results

105mm shells.... didn't we send some 105mm artillery?  I seem to recall that. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

That first one is the rub for Russia.  The troop density they need to sustain for a defence in depth is far too low for the frontage they have bitten off.  

The problem is that the Russians had even less going for them last Fall and they managed to do pretty well.  Kherson slowly folded in large part because of the ridiculously difficult supply situation.  The Kharkiv offensive was stalled out by relatively isolated and slapdash Russian forces, most notably allowing them to retain Kreminna.

In many ways Russia is going into this next campaign season materially weaker than at any point in this war, so that is favorable for Ukraine.  Maybe even decisive.  However, Russia has more bodies to throw into the path of Ukraine's offensive and it has had time to establish some semblance of fortifications (more akin to Kherson than Kharkiv at the very least).

Don't bet me wrong, my money is still very much on Ukraine achieving something very significant in the coming months.  However, I'm not betting on a knock out punch this year even though it for sure is possible.

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So Russia has a really big frontage to try and freeze the conflict while the UA only has to find the weak spots to exploit - and keep exploiting.  As to mobilization, I am not sold that the west is at the bottom of the barrel yet.  In fact I know we are not even close.  

Absolutely agree.  The issue is timing.  Ramping up production and moving around mothballed stuff takes time.  Coming into the fight too late to impact 2023's fighting might be extremely problematic, even if it ensures that Ukraine has another shot in 2024.

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Would we be happy, nope.  Would we be in trouble if China invades Taiwan?…trust me 12-24 Canadian Leo2s are not going to make a difference in Taiwan.  But could we do it if we had too, yes.  And there are a lot of nations in NATO with war stocks etc with a lot of depth.  So again, Russia is not on the winning end of that calculus either.  What we do not need is a Ukrainian military disaster which would result in a lot of western political testicular retreats into abdomens. 

I'm concerned that Ukraine needs to do more than not f this up.  Some are expecting this is the year Ukraine takes Russia out of the war, if not literally then at least practically.  I'm not so sure that's practical.  So for some it might not matter if Ukraine buries and wounds another 200,000 Russians and reduces the Russians to fighting with pointy sticks if Russia somehow manages to keep up the facade that it is able to fight long term.  Support for keeping the war hot will wane in certain quarters if that happens.

A possible ace up Ukraine's sleeve is causing Putin to push Russians too far in order to keep the war going.  Having good success, but not brilliant results, on the battlefield this year could potentially do that.  Russia will need ample bodies to throw at Ukraine to stop them from taking back significant territory.  If Ukraine does what it has done in the past, namely 200ing and 300ing huge numbers of Russian forces, then Russia will either have to do an official mobilization again or risk collapse.  If that happens then the possible ace may come into play.  As this is the only way I see Russia getting out of the war, I sure as Hell hope this is the way it goes.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

105mm shells.... didn't we send some 105mm artillery?  I seem to recall that.

Yes.  As of January they had 70+ in their hands, some from the US and some from the UK.  The ammo was announced well ahead of the guns, in fact.  Here's an article from last summer where CSIS was wondering what the ammo was for:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/latest-ukraine-package-more-artillery-and-beginnings-new-navy

Reports from the front indicate that the Ukrainians LOVE the light weight and easy maneuvering of the 105mm systems.  IIRC they used them as a sort of mobile reserve, moving the guns here and there to sort out a particular mess, then pulling out.

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

This is a lot more like what I'd hope to see.... 

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1643146753078706178?t=XbRck4gV2egJC5aYhilLmw&s=19

[dan/california]

 

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The problem is that the Russians had even less going for them last Fall and they managed to do pretty well.  Kherson slowly folded in large part because of the ridiculously difficult supply situation.  The Kharkiv offensive was stalled out by relatively isolated and slapdash Russian forces, most notably allowing them to retain Kreminna.

In many ways Russia is going into this next campaign season materially weaker than at any point in this war, so that is favorable for Ukraine.  Maybe even decisive.  However, Russia has more bodies to throw into the path of Ukraine's offensive and it has had time to establish some semblance of fortifications (more akin to Kherson than Kharkiv at the very least).

Don't bet me wrong, my money is still very much on Ukraine achieving something very significant in the coming months.  However, I'm not betting on a knock out punch this year even though it for sure is possible.

Absolutely agree.  The issue is timing.  Ramping up production and moving around mothballed stuff takes time.  Coming into the fight too late to impact 2023's fighting might be extremely problematic, even if it ensures that Ukraine has another shot in 2024.

I'm concerned that Ukraine needs to do more than not f this up.  Some are expecting this is the year Ukraine takes Russia out of the war, if not literally then at least practically.  I'm not so sure that's practical.  So for some it might not matter if Ukraine buries and wounds another 200,000 Russians and reduces the Russians to fighting with pointy sticks if Russia somehow manages to keep up the facade that it is able to fight long term.  Support for keeping the war hot will wane in certain quarters if that happens.

A possible ace up Ukraine's sleeve is causing Putin to push Russians too far in order to keep the war going.  Having good success, but not brilliant results, on the battlefield this year could potentially do that.  Russia will need ample bodies to throw at Ukraine to stop them from taking back significant territory.  If Ukraine does what it has done in the past, namely 200ing and 300ing huge numbers of Russian forces, then Russia will either have to do an official mobilization again or risk collapse.  If that happens then the possible ace may come into play.  As this is the only way I see Russia getting out of the war, I sure as Hell hope this is the way it goes.

Steve

We are about to get the clearest test ever of what happens when you take a very good, and very highly motivated army, and add a medium sized dose of NATO combined arms special sauce.

28 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

This is a lot more like what I'd hope to see.... 

Infinitely better than the guy who bulldozes the trench in a fit of pique. But I am again seized by the thought that every tank in Ukrainian service needs a 40 mm grenade launcher bolted on top, RWS or simple pintle mount either one. Hitting trenches with 125mm HE at point blank range is using a hammer too drive a screw because it is all you brought along. I suspect it is even worse because T series tanks have such a limited ability to depress their main guns.

And once again every one of these clips makes the case for that new programmable airburst round that is coming into service for the Abrams. I seems like they would be five or ten times more efficient than point detonating shells. Doubly so since you could actually stand off out of accurate RPG range in most cases .

Edited April 5, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Reports from the front indicate that the Ukrainians LOVE the light weight and easy maneuvering of the 105mm systems.  IIRC they used them as a sort of mobile reserve, moving the guns here and there to sort out a particular mess, then pulling out.

If we really are going to let Amnesty and related organizations scare us out of using cluster munitions there is a lot of utility going forward for a very fast firing 105mm SPG, and a self propelled medium mortar, preferably breach loading. With fully automatic gun laying and and loading they could pump out ten rounds in less than a minute in whatever pattern the was preselected, and be going somewhere else while the barrel cooled off to repeat the trick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMOS

Oh look, the Finns and Swedes have a system in service. Now that Finland is safely tucked under the U.S. Air-Force umbrella that comes with NATO membership they need to celebrate by getting several batteries worth worth of these off to Ukraine soonest.

Edited April 5, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

 

This is a lot more like what I'd hope to see.... 

This is a reedited version of footage that was posted here a million pages ago (i.e. last week or two )  The original video showed more of the trench clearing and dead Russians.

And yes, this is much better tactics than what we saw in the trench crushing video.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Yesterday's ISW report had this about the assassination bombing:
 

Quote

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demonstrative response to the assassination of Russian milblogger Maxim Fomin (Vladlen Tatarsky) indicates Prigozhin likely believes that the attack was in part directed at himself. Prigozhin held an event on April 4 at the remnants of the restaurant where Fomin was killed by an improvised explosive device on April 2.[11] Prigozhin claimed that he arrived at the scene from the Bakhmut frontline as quickly as he could to commemorate Fomin. Prigozhin announced that he intends to expand “Kiber Front Z”—the Wagner-affiliated ultranationalist group that held Fomin’s fatal event—into a social movement that fights against external threats.[12] Prigozhin stated that the Wagner Group has been thwarting attempts by unnamed actors to eliminate the group since 2014.[13] Prigozhin also noted that he will offer financial compensation to the event’s attendees. Prigozhin’s publicly demonstrative response and vague accusations of a campaign against Wagner suggest that Prigozhin is likely attempting to indirectly frame the incident as an attack on him.[14] Prigozhin’s response also shows that he intends to continue to pursue a central position within the Russian pro-war ultranationalist community, despite the threat of violence and pushback.

Prig's behavior is reinforcing the probability that the hit was conducted by one of Prig's many Russian enemies, not Ukraine.  The young woman Trepova, the FSB nabbed, so quickly was probably "set up" as her husband claimed.  For example, she might have thought she was working for a resistance group and followed instructions to give Fomin something that was bugged.  Or she could have known it was a bomb, but again thought she was doing it on the behalf of a resistance group.

Some of the footage that the FSB released showed Trepova going into the club with the box.  The video of her was apparently taken by a hand held recording device.  This indicates that the FSB at the very least had this meeting staked out by agents.

Whatever the case is, there's no chance Trepova was the mastermind of this, yet I've not see the FSB talk about their efforts to find the bomb maker.  Seems they are quite happy to pin this on Trepova alone, which is suspicious.

For what it's worth, the NRA (no, not the US organization!) that claimed responsibility for Dugina's assassination are now saying they did this:

https://news.yahoo.com/national-republican-army-takes-responsibility-174426096.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB99Apg0nyvpNoETUXgNLNjX6fTk00xQRv2hWi37ZRql3zfRTOq4f-w4m3AR7OU8Eo9eWEBittT0IsKkoRpDGogkW0gcxCcuVAJHV1SdOJuHmnf7UbEdQoCN1JBlUSwZH_OsX-2VIrOlWnn8jCUoV1Oon9v0b_X_2LFyI-SjPsGO

Of course the question is if the NRA even exists or if it does if it is a front for FSB special actions.  So not much confidence in this statement of responsibility.

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

Quote

When we fire one of these the Russian artillery radar detects it as an entire full barrel BM-21, thinking we're gonna whack them with a full battery. So our guys ug off while the Russians scurry in panic. 

 

[Kinophile]

Theiner is bullish... 

 

 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Don't bet me wrong, my money is still very much on Ukraine achieving something very significant in the coming months.  However, I'm not betting on a knock out punch this year even though it for sure is possible.

Steve

I am still on the fence about what would constitute a knockout punch.  I don't think the UA has to drive all the way to the 2014 border or even fully split the front.  A significant offensive that forces Russia to give up a decent amount of territory after all the lives Putin has spent for a few blocks of Bahkmut is gonna look really bad.  Something on a similar scale to Kharkiv for example is gonna induce serious internal stresses for Russia.

If the UA can pull off a significant enough advance to drive home the point again that Russia is losing this war does it constitute enough to force the cracks in the Russia state?  What does that do for China's position?  What do the other states that make up the Russian empire do with that dilemma after all the lives they have spent marching to Moscow's tune?

[Kinophile]

Ukraine hasn't forgotten how to use MCLICS... (UR77) 

 

[chuckdyke]

More detail than yesterday's video. Infantry operating drones armor for close in fighting.