How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Yet]

19 hours ago, sross112 said:

 

"A democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what's for dinner. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote."

this is one of the most problematic misunderstandings about democracy.

democracy is NOT the will of the majority. Democracy is the will of of the majority while taking the will of the minority in account!!!

 

i hope that from now on at least our little board here will know, understand and spread that knowledge. Because understanding this little difference is the main hope of saving our democracies!

[Yet]

5 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

a lesson learned from Sun-Tzu 'Keep your enemies close'. ... right.

[Lethaface]

32 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Don't know where you got the demoncratic idea from, but it's not cognitive congruent. 
 

It was a typo.

Ah, ok my bad I thought you saw some demonic form in a democracy lol. 

32 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

The U.S. originally specified that only white men, age 21 or older, who owned property, were allowed to vote for their Representatives. Senators were selected/elected by the State Legislatures. The “Voters” didn’t get to directly elect Senators to represent their States in the Senate until the 20th Century. Benjamin Franklin supported a vote to remove the requirement of owning property and penned a very succinct reply to a five-page statement by his supporters in favor of removing ownership of property. He said “A man owns an A**, the man can vote. The A** dies, the man can no longer vote. Therefore the vote lies not with the man, but with the A**.” I used to use it when I was teaching Executive Branch Regulatory Writers how to write in plain language (required in the 1990s by a Presidential Executive Order).

 

 

I know some about the US history, but the US wasn't the first republic to exist and the architecture of it's democracy doesn't define what is a democracy or republic. Anyway in NL woman were only allowed to vote from ~1922; most democratic countries weren't fully representative democracies until later in the 20th century. 

Edited April 4, 2023 by Lethaface

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Anyway in NL woman were only allowed to vote from ~1922; most democratic countries weren't fully representative democracies until later in the 20th century. 

Right! Switzerland granted voting rights to women in 1971!

Edited April 4, 2023 by DesertFox

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I shall present you with the original version of the song:

 

Finns are very glad to join NATO. Many NATO beers and liqueurs have been and will be popped today! ("OTAN" translates "to drink alcohol" in Finnish)

I hope this will materialize in much more support for Ukraine from us. At least all the three biggest parties have stated UKR support has been too little and too late, including from us fins. With the limited packages, the government has always added that the fact we are outside NATO is limiting our support.

Welcome!
I think whole of NATO and especially in Europe we are quite a bit more stronger and united because of this. Hope Sweden can finish the process as well sooner rather than later.

Cheers!

[Huba]

On 4/1/2023 at 1:59 PM, Beleg85 said:

Worth to add though, that so far there is no information about timing of the deal (unless you found it)- realization seems rather distant in time, at least according to current info.

Sorry for late reply, drive-by posting is all I can afford lately. You were of course right, the information about timing was a conjecture, not something stated explicitly. And while it remains unspecified, Sebastian Chwałek, the CEO of PGZ mentioned in the interview today that we are ready to deliver them "on an expedited schedule" - which means either directly from the Army stock, or the ones already manufactured by the plant and waiting for integration with turrets/ mission equipment, of which AFAIK there's at least 70. He also said that the details are not decided yet (at least officially), both IFVs with Hitfist30P AND ZSSW30 turrets are on the table, as well as (implicitly) Rak mortars and HMG RWS armed variants. 
My gut feeling is that the training on these is already ongoing for some time (there were leaked pictures of Ukrainian soldiers posing with Rosomaks a few months ago) and we'll see them in UA very soon.
Here's the source video with the interview (in Polish only).

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Yet said:

a lesson learned from Sun-Tzu 'Keep your enemies close'. ... right.

If Russia finds this massive new border with NATO to be beyond its ability to manage, all it has to do is Give Murmansk Oblast to Norway, and return most of the Republic of Karelia to Finland, their new border with NATO would be less than a third the length, and run through some of the worst swamp on earth. Even the current excuse for a Russian army could probably hold the Finish boy scouts there for at least a week. Norway would probably want monetary compensation though, for taking on the nuclear waste dump the Russians have turned the port of Murmansk into. That is a first class environmental disaster.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Republic+of+Karelia,+Russia/@62.5136575,29.9863192,4.7z/data=!4m6!3m5!1s0x4420bc810d4b716d:0x102a3a583f194b0!8m2!3d63.1558702!4d32.9905552!16zL20vMDFjOTN6

Approximate new border to relive Russia's NATO anxiety

[Lethaface]

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/04/04/poland-remains-eus-biggest-importer-of-russian-lpg-paying-e710-million-to-moscow-last-year/

I don't know this source but is at least interesting given the usual bashing against some other country.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/04/04/poland-remains-eus-biggest-importer-of-russian-lpg-paying-e710-million-to-moscow-last-year/

I don't know this source but is at least interesting given the usual bashing against some other country.

Yes, but they seem to use all of it to produce artillery, and IFVs that are shipped from the factory straight to the Ukrainian army, so it is ok. They don't whine about it either, They just keep adding shifts and whole assembly lines and SHIP the bleeping stuff with greetings for Ivan already neatly inked on the shells.

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Yes, but they seem to use all of it to produce artillery, and IFVs that are shipped from the factory straight to the Ukrainian army, so it is ok. They don't whine about it either, They just keep adding shifts and whole assembly lines and SHIP the bleeping stuff with greetings for Ivan already neatly inked on the shells.

No they use the LPG to gas cars. I call hypocrisy.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

The U.S. originally specified that only white men, age 21 or older, who owned property, were allowed to vote for their Representatives.

True! But that wasn’t the point or structure of the Constitution, which was built to be amended. The point was and is that citizens get to not only vote but to *be* those who are voted on - to do the governing. Not a king or queen. Not a dictator. And whoever is governing gets kicked out periodically. Then they must again earn the privilege, if they wish to govern for another term. A self-governing society of equals, where the membership -voters- has been repeatedly enlarged. Imperfect, sure. But afaik, people stream to these sorts of Democratic societies and away from those like Russia, North Korea.

One of the strong points of this system has been the hard won recognition that neither the color of one’s pigmentation, nor one’s gender, nor ethnicity, nor one’s wealth is the determinant of one’s worthiness to be a citizen, to be included in “We hold these truths to be self-evident.” However painful and long that recognition has been taking, 

[Battlefront.com]

Article about a Russian FSO officer who defected to the West back in October.  He worked for Putin since 2009 and had fairly extensive contact with him over the whole period of time.  The main takeaway from this is that he also views Putin 2022 as being very different than Putin 2009.  The current Putin is paranoid and isolated, getting his information 2nd hand at best.

https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-security-officer-karakulov-war-criminal-ukraine/32349423.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Ok, I think the discussion about the differences between Republics and Democracies, in theory and in practice, has veered too much off course.  Kindly move on

Steve

[FancyCat]

I've always been of the opinion that the West could keep using Russian gas, as long as military aid to Ukraine compensated for it. I mean, Ukraine still allows Russian LNG to flow to Europe thru its pipelines on its territory, in return for cash. And certainly no one can deny Poland's desire for Ukrainian victory. The main thing is balancing cutting off Russian exports while not damaging Western economies, which as the price of energy is globalized and traded freely, can result in headlines affecting pricing. 

Same thing informs my opinion about exports of Russian food supplies, sure, cutting off money to Russia is great, but the suffering from such actions on pricing on the global markets would cause increased instability. Same reason why the Black Sea grain initiative is vital for Ukraine and worldwide. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I've always been of the opinion that the West could keep using Russian gas, as long as military aid to Ukraine compensated for it. I mean, Ukraine still allows Russian LNG to flow to Europe thru its pipelines on its territory, in return for cash. And certainly no one can deny Poland's desire for Ukrainian victory. The main thing is balancing cutting off Russian exports while not damaging Western economies, which as the price of energy is globalized and traded freely, can result in headlines affecting pricing. 

Same thing informs my opinion about exports of Russian food supplies, sure, cutting off money to Russia is great, but the suffering from such actions on pricing on the global markets would cause increased instability. Same reason why the Black Sea grain initiative is vital for Ukraine and worldwide. 

 

I am of the same opinion short term.  Long term?  Breaking with Russian money and influence, in all forms, is a must.  I hope Poland is planning on a transition to other sources of energy.

Steve

[Lethaface]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article about a Russian FSO officer who defected to the West back in October.  He worked for Putin since 2009 and had fairly extensive contact with him over the whole period of time.  The main takeaway from this is that he also views Putin 2022 as being very different than Putin 2009.  The current Putin is paranoid and isolated, getting his information 2nd hand at best.

https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-security-officer-karakulov-war-criminal-ukraine/32349423.html

Steve

That's interesting. I remember wondering whether Putin had gone mad because of the pandemic isolation and started getting high on his own supply. 

[Lethaface]

17 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I've always been of the opinion that the West could keep using Russian gas, as long as military aid to Ukraine compensated for it. I mean, Ukraine still allows Russian LNG to flow to Europe thru its pipelines on its territory, in return for cash. And certainly no one can deny Poland's desire for Ukrainian victory. The main thing is balancing cutting off Russian exports while not damaging Western economies, which as the price of energy is globalized and traded freely, can result in headlines affecting pricing. 

Same thing informs my opinion about exports of Russian food supplies, sure, cutting off money to Russia is great, but the suffering from such actions on pricing on the global markets would cause increased instability. Same reason why the Black Sea grain initiative is vital for Ukraine and worldwide. 

 

I surely never thought crashing ones own economy for whatever reason is ever a good idea. A wise policy would be to implement such changes gradually to limit hard disruptions/volatile movements etc, but with a clear vision about endstate (=no soup for you Russia).
Anyway the hypocrisy caught my eye.
Of course Poland and virtually all of the Polish people are on Ukraine side, that's not in question. Nobody said anything to the contrary.

[cesmonkey]

DefenseOne reports that the anti-drone system labelled as “10 mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems" that was included in today's defense package are these:

Quote

SAIC used BAE’s APKWS laser-guided rockets, which achieved a 100-percent hit rate, the company representative said. 

And at less than $30,000 apiece, the rockets are cheaper than Ukraine’s larger air-defense missiles, said Greg Fortier, the vice president of SAIC’s Army Business Unit. 

https://www.defenseone.com/defense-systems/2023/04/us-sending-experimental-anti-drone-weapons-ukraine/384801/

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Welcome!
I think whole of NATO and especially in Europe we are quite a bit more stronger and united because of this. Hope Sweden can finish the process as well sooner rather than later.

Cheers!

Sweden is a bit more tricky though because they've managed to piss off Turkey (criticism of Erdogan's human rights record and support for Kurds) and Hungary (criticism of Orban). Nothing that other NATO countries haven't also said, but here they are in a position to demand concessions in exchange for not vetoing Sweden.

Sweden and Turkey had an agreement on what Sweden needed to do before Turkey would allow it in, but Turkey is saying that Sweden hasn't fulfilled its obligations yet (notably extradition of some Kurdish organizers from Sweden, which were blocked by Swedish courts). The Turkish parliament has approved Swedish entry to NATO, but I gather it's not up to them, but to the Erdogan administration.

So Sweden is unlikely to get approval from Turkey before the Turkish elections in May.

Hungary is expected to give in if/when Turkey does, but that's not certain either.

[Lethaface]

10 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Sweden is a bit more tricky though because they've managed to piss off Turkey (criticism of Erdogan's human rights record and support for Kurds) and Hungary (criticism of Orban). Nothing that other NATO countries haven't also said, but here they are in a position to demand concessions in exchange for not vetoing Sweden.

Sweden and Turkey had an agreement on what Sweden needed to do before Turkey would allow it in, but Turkey is saying that Sweden hasn't fulfilled its obligations yet (notably extradition of some Kurdish organizers from Sweden, which were blocked by Swedish courts). The Turkish parliament has approved Swedish entry to NATO, but I gather it's not up to them, but to the Erdogan administration.

So Sweden is unlikely to get approval from Turkey before the Turkish elections in May.

Hungary is expected to give in if/when Turkey does, but that's not certain either.

I know .  Let's see what the election brings in Turkey, I guess after that the pressure will be upped on Turkey to settle.

On another news I just read some concrete plans (or rather it has been decided) of Dutch defense 'firepower increase' due to the Ukraine war:

* Tomahawks for submarines and frigates
* Puls (Israeli MLRS), together with Denmark and maybe Germany.
* JASSM-ER for the F-35s

https://www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws/2023/04/03/defensie-versterkt-vuurkracht-met-raketartillerie-en-langeafstandswapens

No groundbreaking stuff but seems to me like a pragmatic move: effective long range precision capability on air / land / sea. Plus it's buying of the shelf from what I read. 

Edited April 4, 2023 by Lethaface

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/04/04/poland-remains-eus-biggest-importer-of-russian-lpg-paying-e710-million-to-moscow-last-year/

I don't know this source but is at least interesting given the usual bashing against some other country.

LPG is not under agreed EU sanctions and is bought from independent suppliers; we are talking about a very tiny fraction of resource trade  "by other countries" with Russia and massive geopolitcal ramifications of thereof before the war. Even Ukraine transmitts Russian gas- I don't like it too, but that is how our world works.

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

No they use the LPG to gas cars. I call hypocrisy.

Not the first time by Morawiecki's government, isn't it? He is heavy criticized for this LPG by opposition and even partly his own camp, which is rare- especially that he publically promised "no drop of Russian gas in the country".  There is a reason he is nicknamed "Pinokio".

Everybody buys LPG, NL too- but it was long known there will be particular problem with outdated and insuffcient LPG infrastructure here, so we are bound to import it in short term anyway. They do import a lot from RU and this increase in buying by Poland (btw. Baltics increase it too) is controversial indeed. What is omitted in this aticle though ("NotesfromPoland" is sometimes like VS24 a rebours but liberal- omitting facts that not necessarly fit anti-PiS narrative) is they are trying to change infrastructure and diversify LPG and provide more "clean" LNG in medium and longer term, at least they say there are advanced negotiations with other suppliers. I really hope it is one of last years we have such problem. We did manage to remove LNG from Russia from our mix rather well, most of other trade goods too, bought grain from UA in heaps as well, but this thorn unfortunatelly still waits to be removed.

51 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I surely never thought crashing ones own economy for whatever reason is ever a good idea. A wise policy would be to implement such changes gradually to limit hard disruptions/volatile movements etc, but with a clear vision about endstate (=no soup for you Russia).
Anyway the hypocrisy caught my eye.
Of course Poland and virtually all of the Polish people are on Ukraine side, that's not in question. Nobody said anything to the contrary.

Actually, tomorrow Zelensky will be in Warsaw in rare international visit, there are rumours local farmers may protest to block his route. Why? Well, geniuses from government bought or stored Ukrainian grain in cavalier effort to help Ukraine before grain deal; they didn't think they may run out of storage space, railway cars to move it, and ruin Polish farmers by lowering prices on foreign. So they kinda did collapsed part of economy here to help, but it was chiefly due to lack of foresight and lack of communication between various public and private actors than geopolitical games.

Edited April 4, 2023 by Beleg85

[Lethaface]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Actually, tomorrow Zelensky will be in Warsaw in rare international visit, there are rumours local farmers may protest to block his route. Why? Well, geniuses from government bought or stored Ukrainian grain in cavalier effort to help Ukraine before grain deal; they didn't think they may run out of storage space, railway cars to move it, and ruin Polish farmers by lowering prices on foreign. So they kinda did collapsed part of economy here to help, but it was chiefly due to lack of foresight and lack of communication between various public and private actors than geopolitical games.

We also have a farmer problem , and now they've just won the vote for our senate and provincial government offices.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Ah, ok my bad I thought you saw some demonic form in a democracy lol. 

 

 

I know some about the US history, but the US wasn't the first republic to exist and the architecture of it's democracy doesn't define what is a democracy or republic. Anyway in NL woman were only allowed to vote from ~1922; most democratic countries weren't fully representative democracies until later in the 20th century. 

You are absolutely correct, Rome was a Republic before Julius Cesar proclaimed himself (or his Legions proclaimed him, I don’t remember which) Emperor.

fun fact: the first woman elected to the House of Representatives, was elected before women gained the right to vote, by Nineteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in 1920. She was elected because her State allowed women to vote in State elections even though they couldn’t vote in the Presidential elections. The States selected their Representatives, not the Federal Government.

So sorry, no more from me.

Edited April 4, 2023 by Vet 0369
Posted before I got to Steve’s “request.”

[Beleg85]

21 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

We also have a farmer problem , and now they've just won the vote for our senate and provincial government offices.

Yes, balancing grain prices in general across EU is real problem even in normal times, as lot of local inequalities and absurds arrises due to greater good of common market; in both NL and PL farmers are also very "energetic" group, very keen on hitting the streets if they feel threatened in any way. Coal miners are the other one here.

Ukranian grain on EU market do and will cause problems, no reason to hide it- but we shouldn't forget that ultimately responsible for debalancing this sphere is Putin and his genocidal cronies.

 

New package of goodies announced:

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by Beleg85

[Lethaface]

43 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, balancing grain prices in general across EU is real problem even in normal times, as lot of local inequalities and absurds arrises due to greater good of common market; in both NL and PL farmers are also very "energetic" group, very keen on hitting the streets if they feel threatened in any way. Coal miners are the other one here.

Ukranian grain on EU market do and will cause problems, no reason to hide it- but we shouldn't forget that ultimately responsible for debalancing this sphere is Putin and his genocidal cronies.

 

New package of goodies announced:

 

Indeed Putin/Russia is responsible. The war has various side effects but I think most rational people with enough food on table will agree that supporting the right side is the right thing to do; nothing comes for free. Some don't really have a clue/interest in what's going on outside of their frame of reference.

--
US sends more ammo good.  
I don't want to anticipate on outcomes too much but it's looking like Ukraine has been stocking up good for an offensive op.