How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Yet]

 

i cant find an international source so quickly, but this is from Reuters: 

Ukraine captures an RU officer that wrote down the losses on paper. (Vuhledar). 

march 1st: 100 soldiers attacked, 16remain

march 3th: 116 soldiers, 23 remain:

march 4th: 103 soldiers, 15 remain.

march 5th: 115 soldiers, 3 remain.

 

the article also links to an older article about the biggest (armoured vehicles) battle in the war. (130 armoured vehicles burning in the Vuhledar fields).

 

History will have to tell us if Bakhmut or Vuhledar was the main place that turned the RU 2024 offensive.

 

https://www.ed.nl/buitenland/oekraine-neemt-russische-officier-gevangen-die-in-schriftje-harde-cijfers-van-uitgeschakelde-manschappen-opschrijft~a94a4960/

 

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Yet
The last part (the armoured graveyard) seems like old news from march 4th that probably you all know already. I missed out this period due to personal reasons.

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Yet said:

History will have to tell us if Bakhmut or Voehledar was the main place that turned the RU 2024 offensive.

Like and Avdiivka and Maryinka, which appear in news episodically. Especially Maryinka, grounded to  "Hirosima-style", but Russians/DPR for the year could take only half of this small town.   

[Haiduk]

Video of combined work of 92nd mech.brigade drone recon unit "Flight club", 40th artillery brigade and some unit, who has M270 MARS II (maybe of 40th brigade too). Some already were posted here, but since 2:15 new episode - on 14th of March UAV Leleka-100 spotted 3 Russian BM-27 Uragan near Novonykanorivka village, Luhansk oblast (23 km north from Svatove). Two launchers were destropyed by M270 missiles (writing says "hit with fragmental ordnance" - maybe M31A1?) and third was destroyed by "friendly fire" of burning Uragan from behind, which became to "launch" own rockets

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Cargo-cult as it is. It's just a sketch, but I will not surprised if Russia really release such a stamp in honor of such "breakpoint glorious victory". All what USSR and Russia can do proper is to steal and pass off stolen as their own.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Fenris]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure I'd say hitting the propeller was accidental, but the dumping of the fuel was not.  The intent was to down the drone.  It's just that it was downed through abject stupidity rather than through smarter means.

Steve

Pretty much par for the course for the so called professional arm of the RU armed forces.  My initial take on the whole thing was that the pilot took it on himself to play the clown and he screwed it up.  He's lucky he didn't end up taking a swim himself.

[Beleg85]

Some discussions a propos internal criticism sorrounding firing of one Ukrainian commander after his lack of belief in offensive capabilities of Ukrainian army this year. There seem to be part of Ukrainian offiicer corps that does not share rosy vision of offensive breaking into Melitopol- not enough trained troops, using insufficent equipment and with too many ammunition problems.

Perhaps @Haiduk could shed us more light on how people in UA see forthcoming spring/summer.

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even in this pessimistic report it was mentioned a couple of times that Ukraine is holding back a lot of force until the Spring/Summer.  It did this last year with a lot of success, so there's reason to hope it will work this year as well.

The way I read this report is that there might be good reason for hope. But hope is not a plan and don't be surprised if we are all dissatisfied with the Spring offensive. Top to bottom, family to family, Ukraine is getting beat up. Can't wait to see if Rocky can slam a haymaker in the coming weeks. The west is going to have to replace UA lost combat skill and experience with raw firepower delivered to cause a moral collapse in the RA. If this does not happen, we might be looking to why the UA was not allowed to maintain the initiative back in October. We might be also looking at negotiations as the west get feds up with Ukrainian bloodshed. The UA might be filled with supermen. But they are flesh and blood first and super is less tangible now than it was only 6 months ago. Bakhmut is not a small part of the war given the loss rates and on-going media coverage. These are the types of factors that influence the big picture big time. 

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Video of combined work of 92nd mech.brigade drone recon unit "Flight club", 40th artillery brigade and some unit, who has M270 MARS II (maybe of 40th brigade too). Some already were posted here, but since 2:15 new episode - on 14th of March UAV Leleka-100 spotted 3 Russian BM-27 Uragan near Novonykanorivka village, Luhansk oblast (23 km north from Svatove). Two launchers were destropyed by M270 missiles (writing says "hit with fragmental ordnance" - maybe M31A1?) and third was destroyed by "friendly fire" of burning Uragan from behind, which became to "launch" own rockets

 

 

Taking out that third launcher with their own rockets... With luck like that you have to wonder who's side the universe is on.

[DesertFox]

Russias "special tank operation"...

 

[dan/california]

You don't need to many spots like this to move an offensive right along.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Video of combined work of 92nd mech.brigade drone recon unit "Flight club", 40th artillery brigade and some unit, who has M270 MARS II (maybe of 40th brigade too). Some already were posted here, but since 2:15 new episode - on 14th of March UAV Leleka-100 spotted 3 Russian BM-27 Uragan near Novonykanorivka village, Luhansk oblast (23 km north from Svatove). Two launchers were destropyed by M270 missiles (writing says "hit with fragmental ordnance" - maybe M31A1?) and third was destroyed by "friendly fire" of burning Uragan from behind, which became to "launch" own rockets

 

Nice new angle on footage we've already seen at the 1:05 mark.  And the "attacks" on friendly positions at the 5:00 mark is amazing!  Russian accuracy was better with a cooked off round than when launched towards a designated target

Steve

[Haiduk]

34 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Perhaps @Haiduk could shed us more light on how people in UA see forthcoming spring/summer.

I can't say about all. What I see in twitter among militaries - many questions about price of Bakhmut defense, many of criticism on "stupid generals", but in whole there is no pessimism. "Price will be high but we will do our work".  

About "Kupol" - he wasn't enough pessimistic, he just told real things and real problems. It's discussionable - had it a right to tell about this in wartime or not. But anyway, as far as from times of USSR Ukrainian army inherited very bad things - "never say about problems" and "never bring bad news to upper chief".

Military journalist Yuriy Butusov several days ago touched this theme in own interview. And this is one of reasons, why UKR army has hard situation in Bakhmut. Because low-level commanders often didn't report about lost positions in time, because they are afraid to be "fu...d out" by battalion commander, battalion commander in own turn is afraid to be "fu...d out" by brigade comamnder, and brigade commander is afraid to be "fu...d out" by Operative Command HQ. As result higher HQs can get information from battlefield with big delay and can make wrong decisions (this also can get worse because of incompetence of officers). 

He told about soldier Oleksandr Matsiyevskyi, who was captured and shot out for "Slava Ukriani!" - his detachment was sent to take positions in tree-plant near Krasna Hora, which on map in HQ was pointed under our control, but indees was several days seized by Wagners. The same was with Soledar - soldiers, who abandoned positions + commanders, who afraid "to bring bad news" = encirclement. 

Butusov also told that recently in previous rotation, commander of 93rd mech.brigade was removed from command because "dared" to report to HQ about real situation and real problems. Most problematic chain, who still adhere to such "Soviet heritage" - middle-high level of commanders (Operative Command HQs, MoD, many brigade commanders)  

So, it's big luck, that this Soviet habits are developing in Russian army in many times brighter, than in our own... 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Cargo-cult as it is. It's just a sketch, but I will not surprised if Russia really release such a stamp in honor of such "breakpoint glorious victory". All what USSR and Russia can do proper is to steal and pass off stolen as their own.

Now Russia is going to deploy Cope Stamps?  Well, why not

Funny that after a year of this war the biggest thing Russia has to crow about is accidentally knocking a US intel drone out of the air.  Hey Russia, we have 29 MQ-9s left in service... how many more Moskvas do you have left? 

Steve

[danfrodo]

Great posts folks, I am finally caught up after a day of travel yesterday.  It's fascinating to me how folks are looking at a local situation, like shell shortage/troop quality in Bakhmut, and are extrapolating that to the entire UKR army.  Maybe it's true in the entire army.  But the preponderance of evidence seems to indicate that UKR is using economy of force.  

[chuckdyke]

What is this? Transporting or an innovation?

 

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Russias "special tank operation"...

 

Hmm.  If they really are going for pieces in museums then that says they don't have as much faith in the restorability of the 2300 that are sitting around (probably) outside.

Steve

 

[DesertFox]

I´m waiting for the day when we will see T-34/85 and IS-2 upgraded with ERA...

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

What is this? Transporting or an innovation?

 

Probably a recoverable turret off of an otherwise destroyed 2S1 (I think that's the type).  That is so close to the World of Tanks (I think that was the game) spoof posted a couple of pages ago. 

If this doesn't demonstrate the shortages Russia is having, I don't know what does!

Steve

[Haiduk]

Attempt of Wagner assault team to cross Bakhmutka river (UKR-controlled part on the left side)

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now Russia is going to deploy Cope Stamps?  Well, why not

Funny that after a year of this war the biggest thing Russia has to crow about is accidentally knocking a US intel drone out of the air.  Hey Russia, we have 29 MQ-9s left in service... how many more Moskvas do you have left? 

Steve

I think you’re missing a trailing zero on the number of MQ-9s in US service. 

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

He told about soldier Oleksandr Matsiyevskyi, who was captured and shot out for "Slava Ukriani!" - his detachment was sent to take positions in tree-plant near Krasna Hora, which on map in HQ was pointed under our control, but indees was several days seized by Wagners. The same was with Soledar - soldiers, who abandoned positions + commanders, who afraid "to bring bad news" = encirclement. 

Thanks. Now that is interesting. If I read correctly, Kupola is battalion commander in 46th that held Soledar. I also heard a lot of stories from some Polish volunteers/journos that there are intense quarrells "behind the green curtain" as to why to keep entire Bakhmut complex, and some bad blood among those who were rotated from there.

On better note, Wagnerites trying to cross Bakhmutivka. This is open killing ground in front of higher buildings kept by defenders.

 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Kupola is battalion commander in 46th that held Soledar.

Probably exactly his battalion was thrown in that desperate counter-attack to breach a way for encirclement units in the town. 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Lancet, which was catched by netting over 2S1 howitzer after disassembling. Its warhed is old Soviet engineer HEAT ammunition KZ-6, which was appointed to breaching fortifications or for some building and sapper works. Except 215 mm of steel it can penetrate 550 mm of concrete and 800 mm of soil. Also can be set in the water on 10 m depth.

UKR also had experiments with KZ-6  - "Mayak" factory, which upgraded RKG-3 HEAT grenades to RKG-1600 HEAT bombs for drones, in 2021 designed KZ-4600 bomb, based on KZ-6, but looks like it wasn't launched in production

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I can't say about all. What I see in twitter among militaries - many questions about price of Bakhmut defense, many of criticism on "stupid generals", but in whole there is no pessimism. "Price will be high but we will do our work".  

About "Kupol" - he wasn't enough pessimistic, he just told real things and real problems. It's discussionable - had it a right to tell about this in wartime or not. But anyway, as far as from times of USSR Ukrainian army inherited very bad things - "never say about problems" and "never bring bad news to upper chief".

Military journalist Yuriy Butusov several days ago touched this theme in own interview. And this is one of reasons, why UKR army has hard situation in Bakhmut. Because low-level commanders often didn't report about lost positions in time, because they are afraid to be "fu...d out" by battalion commander, battalion commander in own turn is afraid to be "fu...d out" by brigade comamnder, and brigade commander is afraid to be "fu...d out" by Operative Command HQ. As result higher HQs can get information from battlefield with big delay and can make wrong decisions (this also can get worse because of incompetence of officers). 

He told about soldier Oleksandr Matsiyevskyi, who was captured and shot out for "Slava Ukriani!" - his detachment was sent to take positions in tree-plant near Krasna Hora, which on map in HQ was pointed under our control, but indees was several days seized by Wagners. The same was with Soledar - soldiers, who abandoned positions + commanders, who afraid "to bring bad news" = encirclement. 

Butusov also told that recently in previous rotation, commander of 93rd mech.brigade was removed from command because "dared" to report to HQ about real situation and real problems. Most problematic cahin, who still adhere to such "Soviet heritage" - middle-high level of commanders (Operative Command HQs, MoD, many brigade commanders)  

So, it's big luck, that this Soviet habits are developing in Russian army in many times brighter, than in our own... 

This is all bad news for Ukraine, but not surprising.  Culture is very difficult to break, even in wartime where such problems have consequences.

"Covering your ass" is a common problem in all organizations in the West, but we also tend to have serious punishments for not producing accurate reports.  And generally reporting bad news isn't the same as causing it, so leaders are more-or-less held responsible for the things they can control instead of the things they can not.  This doesn't prevent a bad officer or private sector manager from hiding information, but it does keep most doing the right thing.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Probably exactly his battalion was thrown in that desperate counter-attack to breach a way for encirclement units in the town. 

Over the course of this war there certainly have been multiple reports of Ukrainian units leaving their positions without that information being properly communicated.  In particular I can remember this from the battles of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, but also smaller battles like Popasnya.

This is absolutely something Ukraine has to fix and fix soon.

Steve